In 2025, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of isooctanol was 6916.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 8.99% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st. The average price of isooctanol in 2025 is 7249.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.69% from the average price of 9889.58 yuan/ton in 2024, reaching a new low in nearly five years. Due to factors such as overcapacity in isooctanol enterprises, weak downstream demand, and insufficient cost support, the price of isooctanol will enter a period of deep adjustment in 2025. The price of isooctanol will fluctuate and decline in 2025.
Analysis of the Price Trend of Isooctanol in 2025
Phase 1: High level consolidation of isooctanol prices in January and February. During the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, there will be a slight fluctuation in prices due to restocking after the holiday.
Phase 2: The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell from March to April. During the off-season of demand, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and coupled with the decline in raw materials, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.
Phase 3: Isooctanol prices fluctuated and consolidated from May to July. There is overcapacity in isooctanol enterprises, and enterprises such as Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng are undergoing maintenance. The operating rate of these enterprises is about 80%, and the supply of isooctanol is tight, causing fluctuations and consolidation in isooctanol prices.
Stage 4: The price of isooctanol drops rapidly from August to October. Due to overcapacity in isooctanol enterprises and an increase in production to a maximum of 95%, the price of isooctanol has dropped significantly, reaching a new low since May 2020.
Phase 5: The price of isooctanol rebounded and rose in November and December. The production rate of isooctanol enterprises has dropped to about 70%, and the supply of isooctanol is insufficient, causing the price of isooctanol to rebound and rise.
Supply side: Capacity expansion, reduced operating rate under pressure
In 2025, the total domestic production capacity of isooctanol will be about 3.8 million tons per year, with an additional production capacity of about 500000 tons, mainly from the expansion projects of leading enterprises. The operating rate of isooctanol enterprises fluctuates between 60% and 95% throughout the year, dropping to around 60% in April and rising to 90% from August to October. The overall operating rate is less than 80%, and the overall supply of isooctanol is surplus.
Demand side: downstream weakness, accelerated substitution
More than 90% of the demand for isooctanol comes from the plasticizer industry, with DOP accounting for about 70% and environmentally friendly plasticizers such as DOTP accounting for about 20%. The operating rate of DOP enterprises will fluctuate between 40% and 65% in 2025, and the sluggish real estate market will lead to a decline in demand for PVC products. The procurement of isooctanol will mainly be for essential needs, and inventory will remain low; The tightening of environmental policies has accelerated the replacement of DOP with environmentally friendly plasticizers such as DOTP, resulting in weak demand for isooctanol.
The price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and fallen, while the cost of isooctanol has decreased
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of propylene was 5717.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 16.36% compared to the price of 6835.75 yuan/ton on January 1st. The price of propylene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of isooctanol has decreased. The cost support is weak, and the downward pressure on isooctanol has increased. In 2025, most of the time isooctanol was in a state of slight profit or loss. In October, the price of isooctanol fell below the cost line and suffered a slight loss. With the rebound of isooctanol prices, profits rebounded in December.
Market Overview and Outlook

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol products, in the short term, in the first quarter of 2026, the supply of isooctanol will be tight due to a combination of factors such as replenishment of inventory by isooctanol enterprises after the Spring Festival, new production capacity of isooctanol, and a decrease in enterprise operation; The price of propylene has risen, and the cost support of isooctanol has increased. In the first quarter, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. In the long run, the addition of new production capacity for isooctanol and the accelerated withdrawal of outdated production capacity due to capacity integration may lead to a long-term oversupply of isooctanol. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will consolidate at a low level.

Benzene anhydride market stopped falling and rising
According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, as of January 5, the price of phenylene anhydride was 6,000 yuan / ton, up 8.43% from the price of phenylene anhydride of 5533.33 yuan / ton on December 22. Beginning in late December, the price of phenylene anhydride stopped falling, the price of raw materials phthalate rose sharply, the cost rose, the starting rate of phenylene anhydride enterprises fell, the supply of phenylene anhydride tightened; the downstream DOP enterprises began to decrease slightly, the demand for phenylene anhydride was weakened.
Benzene anhydride costs rise supply tightening
On January 5, China Petrochemical phthalate quote of 6100 yuan / ton, compared to December 20 phthalate price of 5700 yuan / ton increased by 400 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.02%. Phthalate prices rose, phenylene anhydride cost rose. After New Year’s Day, the starting load of phenylene anhydride equipment fell to 65%, the start of construction fell, the production of phenylene anhydride decreased, the supply of phenylene anhydride tightened. Supply tightened plus the cost rose, the increase in the momentum of phenylene anhydride.
Demand side: DOP prices stopped falling
According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, as of January 5, the DOP price of 7367.50 yuan / ton, compared to the December 20 DOP price of 7159.16 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.91%. The plasticizer DOP enterprise startup load dropped slightly to 5.5%, DOP production decreased, phenylene anhydride demand support weakened, phenylene anhydride downward pressure was greater.
Aftermarket Forecast
Business company phenylene anhydride product data analysts believe that in terms of demand, plasticizer enterprises DOP equipment load decreased, plasticizer production decreased, phenylene anhydride demand support weakened; in terms of cost, neighboring diphthalene prices rose, raw material prices rose, phenylene anhydride costs rose. For the future market, phenylene anhydride costs rose, phenylene anhydride supply tightening demand weakened, phenylene anhydride prices are expected to rise strongly in the future market.

Review of Ethylene Glycol Price Trends in 2025
In 2025, the price of ethylene glycol first was strong and then weak
In 2025, the ethylene glycol market presented a pattern of “first strong and then weak, with a low-level rebound at the end of the year”. The ethylene glycol market in 2025 can be roughly divided into three stages: “high volatility at the beginning of the year, unilateral decline from the end of August, and first breaking a new low and then rebounding in December”.
By the end of 2025, the low level of ethylene glycol in ports stopped falling and rebound

The core logic of the price trend of ethylene glycol in 2025 is “dominated by oversupply, driven by cost and demand”. By the end of August, the supply and demand will be relatively balanced, and prices will fluctuate; After the end of August, the combination of increased supply and weak demand resulted in a continuous decline in prices; In December, due to equipment maintenance, cost recovery, and demand replenishment, prices rebounded at a low level, but the long-term pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the sustainability of the rebound is still uncertain. The reasons for the segmented market trends of ethylene glycol in different stages throughout the year are as follows:
The core logic of the ethylene glycol market from January to August is “supply-demand balance+cost fluctuation driven”. From January to February, prices fluctuated upwards due to cost support and demand replenishment; Prices will decline from March to April due to the low demand season and increased supply; The policy sentiment and equipment maintenance in July and August drove price rebound, but oversupply and weak demand limited the increase, ultimately maintaining range fluctuations.
The core logic of the ethylene glycol market from the end of August to November in the second stage is “dominated by oversupply+driven by cost collapse and weak demand”. From the end of August to mid September, due to the concentrated deployment of new production capacity and a surge in imports, coupled with lower than expected demand during peak seasons, prices rapidly declined; From late September to October, the significant drop in crude oil prices led to cost collapse, coupled with a surge in port inventory, causing prices to continue to decline; In November, due to the continued pattern of oversupply and panic selling of funds, prices approached low levels.
The core logic of the December ethylene glycol market in the third stage is “driven by the resonance of supply contraction, cost rebound, and demand replenishment after all negative factors have been exhausted”. From December 1st to 22nd, due to the pressure of year-end capital inflows from enterprises, coupled with the fact that equipment maintenance has not yet been implemented and weak demand, prices hit a new low since 2021; From December 23rd to 31st, due to the large-scale maintenance of domestic facilities causing supply contraction, coupled with the rebound of crude oil driving cost recovery, the launch of polyester Spring Festival replenishment, and market sentiment recovery, prices rebounded at a low level.
2026 ethylene glycol price forecast

The core logic of the 2026 ethylene glycol market forecast is “continued loose supply+moderate demand growth+cost range oscillation driven, overall showing a pattern of weak first and then stable, with range fluctuations”. From a data perspective, the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity has reached 28.225 million tons by the end of 2024, and it is expected that the excess rate will remain at around 35% in 2026, indicating a continued pattern of loose supply. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in the first quarter, downstream polyester production is expected to decline to a low of 70% -75% for the year, while BASF’s 800000 ton new plant on the supply side is scheduled to start production at the beginning of the year. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, the pressure on accumulated inventory is expanding, and prices may remain at a low level of 3600-4000 yuan/ton; In the second quarter, with the promotion of downstream resumption of work and production, the marginal improvement of polyester demand, coupled with the planned increase of 5.55 million tons of polyester filament production capacity in 2026 (expected to drive demand for ethylene glycol by 1.8593 million tons per year), is gradually released. At the same time, PTA is in a vacuum period of production and maintenance is concentrated in the second quarter. The tight supply has driven the recovery of the industry chain sentiment, eased the pressure on inventory, and the price is expected to bottom out and rise to 4000-4300 yuan/ton; In the second half of the year, the pace of production capacity deployment on the supply side will slow down, and coal prices are expected to show a trend of initially low and then high. Multiple institutions predict that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of $56-65 per barrel, forming a stage of support on the cost side. The moderate growth of domestic and foreign demand in the terminal textile industry will drive the steady increase in demand for ethylene glycol, and the supply-demand pattern will tend to be balanced. The price is likely to remain fluctuating in the range of $4000-4400 per ton, and it is difficult to see a trend. Key variables such as the pace of new production capacity, fluctuations in crude oil and coal prices, changes in polyester operating rates, and the effectiveness of the industry’s “anti involution” policies need to be given special attention.
Forecast of core driving factors for each quarter of 2026:
Core driving factors for the first quarter (January March): 1 On the supply side, new production capacity will be put into centralized operation (such as BASF’s 800000 ton plant), and the average operating rates of coal to ethylene glycol and oil to ethylene glycol have been increased to medium to high levels of 61.95% and 64.25% respectively by 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the operating rate of the plants may remain at 60% -65%, with limited supply reduction and continued loose supply pattern. 2. Demand side: The Spring Festival holiday has led to a decline in downstream polyester production to a low of 70% -75% for the year, and the weaving production rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is expected to drop to 55% -60%, resulting in weak demand for ethylene glycol; Historical data shows that the resumption of work after the holiday will last for 3-4 weeks. Although work will gradually resume in March, the expected monthly destocking amount is less than 50000 tons, and the destocking effect is limited. 3. Inventory and sentiment: By the end of 2025, the inventory of ports in East China had reached 680000 tons, and the supply-demand imbalance is expected to add 150000 to 200000 tons of accumulated inventory in the next quarter. The market continues the pessimistic sentiment at the end of 2025, further suppressing prices. 4. Cost side: Coal prices are relatively weak due to the flat seasonal demand after the end of winter heating. In terms of crude oil, institutions predict that the first quarter will be the stage of the most relaxed supply and demand in the oil market, and Brent crude oil may operate in the range of $55-60 per barrel, with weak cost support.

Core driving factors for Q2 (April June): 1 On the demand side, downstream polyester production has resumed comprehensively, and the operating rate has rebounded to a high level of 85% -90%; The terminal textile industry needs to gradually recover both internally and externally, with weaving start-up rates increasing to 70% -75%, driving marginal improvement in demand for ethylene glycol; At the same time, about 30% of the 5.55 million tons of new production capacity planned for polyester filament in 2026 is scheduled to be put into operation in the second quarter, which is expected to drive an increase in demand for ethylene glycol of 550000-600000 tons per year, further boosting demand. 2. Supply side: The pace of new production capacity has slowed down, and BASF’s facilities that were put into operation in the first quarter are gradually entering a stable operation period, with no other large-scale plans for new production capacity; At the same time, in 2025, most of the oil to ethylene glycol production will be in a loss making state, and some high cost units may enter the maintenance cycle due to previous losses. It is expected that the industry’s maintenance capacity in the second quarter will be about 2-2.5 million tons per year, and the supply pressure will be marginally relieved. 3. Industrial chain linkage: PTA is in a vacuum period of production. In the second quarter of Chinese Mainland, 7.2 million tons of PX devices are planned to be overhauled, and PTA devices in eastern China, southern China and other places are scheduled to be overhauled simultaneously. It is expected that the operating rate of PTA industry will drop to 70% -75%. The tight supply of PTA will drive the polyester industry chain to recover, indirectly boosting the demand for ethylene glycol. 4. Inventory side: With improved demand and supply contraction, the pressure of accumulated inventory has eased. It is expected to achieve a destocking of 100000 to 150000 tons in the second quarter and gradually shift towards destocking, which will support prices.
Core driving factors for the third quarter (July September): 1 On the cost side, coal prices have entered an upward phase of “initially low and then high”, driven by the peak electricity consumption in summer and the demand for heating and stocking in autumn, which has provided cost support for coal to ethylene glycol production; Crude oil prices may fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and the pace of global economic recovery. Institutions such as Citigroup predict that Brent crude oil may operate in the range of $60-65 per barrel in the third quarter, leading the cost trend of oil to ethylene glycol. 2. Demand side: The terminal textile industry has entered the seasonal peak season, with moderate growth in domestic and foreign demand. The weaving start-up rate remains at 75% -80%, and the demand for ethylene glycol is steadily increasing; The new downstream production capacity of polyester continues to be released, and it is expected that the proportion of new production capacity of polyester filament in the third quarter will reach 40%, driving an increase in demand for ethylene glycol of 750000 to 800000 tons per year, which is considerable. 3. Supply side: Under high cost, some inefficient coal production units (with production capacity exceeding 4000 yuan/ton accounting for about 15% of the total production capacity) may undergo load reduction/maintenance, with an expected maintenance capacity of about 1.8-2.2 million tons per year. There is an expectation of contraction in the supply side; The import volume is affected by the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. If the domestic price rises above 4200 yuan/ton, the import profit will narrow, and the import volume may show a phased reduction of 5% -8%. 4. Policy aspect: The implementation effect of the industry’s “anti internal competition” policy may gradually become apparent. If measures related to capacity control are introduced, it is expected to affect the total production capacity by 5% -10%, causing certain disturbances to market sentiment and supply side.

Core driving factors for the fourth quarter (October December): 1 On the demand side: The peak season in the textile industry has ended, and demand has entered a seasonal decline phase, with weaving start-up rates dropping to 65% -70%; Polyester enterprises are expected to reduce their demand for ethylene glycol by 80000 to 120000 tons per month in response to the year-end capital recovery, or to lower their operating rates to 80% -85%, reduce raw material stocking, and weaken demand for ethylene glycol. 2. Supply side: The annual production capacity deployment has been basically completed, and the planned new production capacity for 2026 is about 2.8 million tons. It is expected that all production will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply pattern will tend to stabilize; In order to achieve the annual production target, enterprises may maintain a high operating rate of 65% -70% for their facilities, resulting in a slight increase in supply pressure. 3. Cost side: Coal prices may fall after fluctuating at a high level, and demand will weaken after the end of autumn heating stocking, with coal prices expected to fall by 5% -10%; There is uncertainty in crude oil prices due to the impact of global economic expectations at the end of the year. Goldman Sachs and other institutions predict that Brent crude oil may fall back to the range of $55-60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, weakening cost support. 4. Inventory and Funds: Under the pressure of fund recovery at the end of the year, traders may lower prices to sell inventory, coupled with weak demand. It is expected that there will be a cumulative inventory of 120000 to 180000 tons in the fourth quarter, which may trigger a temporary accumulation of inventory and suppress prices.

After the center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices shifted downwards in December, it began to stabilize and stop falling
The center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices shifted downwards in December, and recently prices have begun to stabilize and stop falling. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 3864.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.59% from the average price of 4050 yuan/ton on December 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the spot contracts for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) have a weak basis, and the futures contracts have switched from contract 2601 to contract 2605. As of the close, the basis quotes for next week’s contracts (before 1.9) are -137 to -133, and for next week’s contracts (before 1.16) are -125 to -122. The basis quotes for January’s contracts (before 1.25) are -116 to -111, for February’s contracts (before 2.25) are -81 to -75, and for March’s contracts (before 2.25) are -43 to -40.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 3280-3360 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of December 29th, the recent negotiations and transactions for ship to land prices have been around 441-445 US dollars per ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in December 2025:
On December 29, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 659500 tons, a decrease of 30500 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 690000 tons on December 1; Compared to the total spot inventory of 499000 tons of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China on October 30th, the inventory has increased by 20500 tons.
The port inventory began to accumulate in October, rising from 350000 tons to 750000 tons, and began to decline in mid December.
Analysis of the reasons for the stabilization and rebound of ethylene glycol:
In mid to late December 2025, the price of ethylene glycol will stop falling, stabilize and rebound. The core lies in the resonance of five factors, including strengthened cost support, supply contraction and realization, low valuation attracting funds and emotional repair, combined with the recovery of macro and energy sector sentiment, which will drive the price to rebound at a low level and fluctuate regionally.
1. Cost side: Dual support of crude oil and coal
International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded due to the favorable geopolitical situation and US economic data, driving up the bottom of the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil and limiting the room for correction.
Coal prices stopped falling in late December due to the fulfillment of peak season demand and the completion of annual coal mine tasks. The cost support for coal to ethylene glycol production increased, and some loss making facilities entered maintenance or reduced losses.
2. Supply side: internal and external production reduction+import contraction, expected convergence of accumulated inventory
Low profits in China have forced plants to reduce or shut down: Since December, nearly 2-3 million tons of oil production plants have been shut down or shut down, and the domestic maintenance capacity has increased to 3.2 million tons per year (accounting for about 18% of the total capacity), with the operating rate falling back to the range of 61% -65%.
Supply contraction outside the mainland: the 720000 ton plant in Taiwan, China Province of China is planned to be shut down from January, and the monthly import to the mainland will be reduced by 40000 to 50000 tons; Part of Saudi Arabia’s facilities are undergoing maintenance/awaiting restart, and the import volume in January may drop below 60000 tons, easing the marginal pressure on the accumulated inventory.
3. Demand side: The decrease in polyester production is less than expected

The operating rate of polyester remains at a high level of 87% -88%, which stabilizes the demand for ethylene glycol; Although the terminal weaving has weakened, the expected improvement in orders and production margins supports the sustainability of high polyester production. The expected drop in downstream polyester load has fallen short of expectations.
4. Market and Funds: Undervaluation as Bottom Support+Emotional Restoration
After the price of ethylene glycol fell to a low level (briefly below 3600 yuan/ton in mid December), there were expectations of valuation recovery, and industrial buying and bottom fishing funds entered the market.
The overall risk appetite for commodities has rebounded (such as the strengthening of the metal sector), and the general rise in chemical products has driven the resonance of ethylene glycol sentiment.
5. Inventory and Expectations: The pressure has not dissipated but the marginal convergence has occurred
The high level of inventory in the main ports of East China has rebounded, and the rate of accumulated inventory has slowed down under the expectation of supply contraction. The pattern of accumulated inventory in January may slightly converge, and the marginal suppression force will weaken.

参考知识
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机翻 · 通用领域
In 2025, the price of polyester bottle chips showed obvious periodic fluctuations, with an overall operating range of 5388-6447 yuan/ton and a fluctuation range of 19.7% within the year.
1、 Core characteristics of the market in 2025: wide fluctuations and intense supply-demand competition
Price trend:
First quarter: High level firm
The market has started steadily, with a transaction price range of 6260-6520 yuan/ton for orders from January to March. At the beginning of the year, with cost support and relatively stable supply and demand, the price remained at a high level of 6380-6430 yuan/ton.
Second quarter: “roller coaster” market trend
The market has fluctuated sharply this quarter. In early April, prices experienced a sharp drop of nearly a thousand points, but later regained all lost ground in June due to factors such as concentrated production cuts in the industry. In May, the price first rose and then fell, with an average price of 6077 yuan/ton at the end of the month. In the second half of the month, it hit the 6000 yuan/ton mark due to the decline in crude oil prices.
Third quarter: Shift in focus
The market is showing a weak downward trend. As of September 30th, the average price of PET has fallen to 5870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50% from 6067 yuan/ton in early July, reflecting the impact of supply pressure and weak domestic demand.
Fourth quarter: Cost driven rebound
Supported by strong raw material costs, the market rebounded at the end of the year. On December 22-23, there was a rapid rise, and on the 26th, the average spot price in East China closed at 6080 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.29%, marking a strong end to the year.
2、 Analysis of Key Factors Influencing the Market Situation
Cost driven
PTA and ethylene glycol are the main raw materials, with PTA accounting for approximately 64% of the cost.
The correlation coefficient between bottle price and PTA price is as high as 0.9, indicating rapid cost transmission.
Supply side: The tug of war between expansion and contraction
The supply pattern in 2025 is complex:
Expansion Trend: Approximately 3.1 million tons of new production capacity were added throughout the year, with a growth rate of 16%, accounting for half of the total new polyester production capacity.
Production reduction trend: In response to potential overcapacity, the industry has launched a large-scale self regulatory production reduction since May. The top enterprises collectively reduced their production capacity by about 3.36 million tons, accounting for 16.3% of the total production capacity at that time, which pushed the industry’s operating rate from a high of nearly 90% to around 75%. The coexistence of capacity expansion and active contraction has become the key to stabilizing the market.
Demand side: weak internally and strong externally, structural changes
Weak domestic demand: From January to October, the production of soft drinks decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, but the consumption of bottled tablets increased by 6.5%, reflecting an increase in unit packaging usage or product upgrades.
Strong exports: the biggest highlight. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 5.848 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, effectively offsetting the insufficient domestic demand.
Emerging applications: The demand for hot filled tea beverages, dairy product packaging, and other fields is rapidly growing (with a growth rate of 6% -9%), becoming a new growth point.
Policy side: “Anti internal competition” and industry self-discipline
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology guides the industry to curb “internal competition”, promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and control production and reduce output.
The industry self-discipline mechanism has shown initial results: when the processing gap drops to a low of 300 yuan/ton, collective production reduction drives the processing gap back to above 550 yuan/ton.
The policy is expected to improve the long-term supply and demand structure, announcing the end of the high-speed expansion phase of production capacity (expected to significantly slow down to 7.5% in the future).

3、 Market outlook for the first quarter of 2026:
The price range under cost support is expected to fluctuate between 6000-6400 yuan/ton, with a shift in focus from the fourth quarter of 2025.
Main logic:
Supporting factors: Cost side (PTA/ethylene glycol) is expected to fluctuate at a high level; Maintain resilience in export demand; Seasonal stocking before and after the Spring Festival.
Restrictive factors: Supply pressure brought about by the commissioning of new facilities; The absolute inventory level in China is still relatively high; The recovery of domestic demand is limited.
Processing fee: It is expected to remain at a historically low level of 300-500 yuan/ton, reflecting that industry competition remains fierce.
summary
In 2025, the polyester bottle chip market will experience severe fluctuations under the multiple forces of capacity expansion, demand differentiation, and policy intervention. The industry balances supply and demand and repairs profits through proactive production reduction and self-discipline. Looking ahead to early 2026, the market will operate between strong cost support and loose supply and demand patterns, with limited upward space for prices, and is expected to be dominated by range fluctuations. The sustainability of export performance and industry self-discipline will be key observational variables in the future.

1、 Price trend
According to data monitored by Business Society, as of December 29th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 6900 yuan/ton. Currently, the cyclohexane supply is sufficient, inventory is running at a high level, downstream demand is insufficient, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.
2、 Market analysis
Market wise: Currently, the overall market supply is sufficient, with loose domestic cyclohexane supply and high inventory levels. Downstream demand is limited, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. There is insufficient upward momentum, weak downstream demand, and insufficient purchasing atmosphere. The overall market supply exceeds demand, and prices are showing a downward trend at a high level. Price increases lack favorable support.
Upstream pure benzene: Supply is loose, domestic pure benzene supply is sufficient, and port inventory is rapidly accumulating. On December 1st, Jiangsu port inventory reached 224000 tons, an increase of 36.59% compared to the previous month. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the overall operating rate is declining. Main products such as styrene and caprolactam are losing profits, and the purchasing willingness is weak.
In terms of demand, the overall demand for cyclohexane in December was weak, with the market mainly focused on rigid procurement. Downstream industries such as synthetic fibers and coatings did not show a significant increase in operating rates, and export orders were also limited.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the overall supply and demand balance in the cyclohexane market is high, with high inventory levels and insufficient purchasing atmosphere on the demand side. Prices are showing a downward trend from high levels. In the short term, the cyclohexane market is expected to maintain a stable to weak operation, but there is still a lack of strong support on the demand side.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the domestic phenol market showed a significant downward trend, with prices continuing to fall from their high at the beginning of the quarter, hitting a new low for the year and even nearly five years. The industry is facing a dual dilemma of supply-demand imbalance and profit pressure. The current market downturn is the result of multiple negative factors such as supply-demand mismatch, weakened cost support, and industrial chain transmission, which have had a significant impact on phenol and the upstream and downstream industrial chains. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6912 yuan/ton on October 1st and 5845 yuan/ton on December 26th, a decrease of 15.44%.
From an annual comparison, the average annual price of phenol in 2025 is 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1064 yuan/ton compared to 7914 yuan/ton in 2024, a decrease of 13.44%. The significant decline in the fourth quarter has become the core factor driving down the annual average price. In terms of market transactions, due to the impact of low prices and weak demand, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to enter the market for inquiries is insufficient, and transactions continue to be sluggish. Most enterprises mainly rely on contract shipments, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is quiet.
From a cost perspective, the core raw materials for phenol production are pure benzene and propylene. In the fourth quarter, the market prices of both materials weakened synchronously, resulting in insufficient cost support for phenol and further exacerbating the downward trend in prices. The pure benzene market has shown particularly weak performance, with a cumulative decline of over 8% from September to October. The sluggish pure benzene market is mainly due to the contradiction between the surge in import volume and insufficient downstream demand. The propylene market also showed a downward trend, with the monthly average price in Northeast and North China falling below 6000 yuan/ton, setting a new low for the year.
In terms of supply, the phenol industry will usher in a new round of capacity expansion in 2025. At the end of the third quarter, Jilin Petrochemical’s 350000 tons/year phenol ketone plant has been completed and put into operation. After entering the fourth quarter, the plant has stable output, directly increasing the total market supply. At the same time, the phenol ketone units of Mitsui Chemical and Shenghong Refining, which were previously shut down for maintenance, have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded to a stable level of around 75%, further exacerbating the pattern of loose supply. In addition, the replenishment of imported phenol cargo in the East China region continued in the fourth quarter, with a total arrival volume of 49700 tons in December. Although port inventory has temporarily stabilized at 8500 tons, the expected arrival of in transit cargo in the future continues to put pressure on the market.
From the demand side, the overall sluggish market is the main reason for the market downturn. The core downstream of phenol is bisphenol A, which accounts for over 40% of its consumption. The downstream polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resin industries of bisphenol A are facing sluggish demand in the fourth quarter. Among them, the PC industry has limited new orders, and enterprises mainly stock up on small orders for essential needs. The operating rate has decreased by 4 percentage points compared to September, and the procurement volume of bisphenol A has significantly decreased; The epoxy resin industry is affected by the adjustment of the new wind power policy, and onshore wind power no longer enjoys the preferential treatment of value-added tax collection and refund. The industry’s operating rate is only maintained at around 51%, further reducing the enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The weak demand in downstream industries has formed negative feedback, resulting in a lack of effective support on the demand side of the phenol market, and the downward pressure on prices continues to increase.

Business Society predicts that the domestic phenol market will continue to experience pressure and volatility in the short term, with limited upward potential for prices. From the supply side, there are plans to restart phenol ketone plants in Yangzhou and other areas, while the replenishment of overseas and domestic shipping will continue. There may be a slight increase in market supply, which will suppress prices. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand for bisphenol A in the core downstream will slightly decrease, while procurement in other downstream industries will still be mainly based on “cautious and essential needs”, with insufficient willingness to proactively stock up. In the short term, it is difficult for the demand side to form an effective boost. In the short term, the industry will still face pressure, and companies need to focus on inventory control and cost management; In the long run, the high-quality development of the industry relies on capacity optimization, technological upgrading, and steady recovery of downstream demand.

Review of Acrylic Acid Price Trends in 2025
1. Clear trend with no effective rebound throughout the year:
The price dropped from 8196 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1) to 5900 yuan/ton at the end of the year (December 17), with a cumulative decrease of 2308 yuan/ton. Each node in the chart is below its previous value, showing a clear downward trend, indicating consistent bearish expectations and sustained selling pressure in the market.
2. The decline is expanding quarter by quarter, and the bottom is accelerating in the second half of the year:
In the first half of the year (until June 25th), the price dropped from 8196 to 7009 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 14.5%. The decline is relatively flat.
In the second half of the year (after June 25th), the decline rate significantly accelerated, dropping from 7009 yuan/ton to 5900 yuan/ton, with the decline expanding to about 16%. Especially in the fourth quarter, the year-on-year price decline rapidly expanded from -10.22% to -22.41%, indicating extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
The market logic behind the trend
This trend is a direct manifestation and quantitative proof of the “oversupply” pressure mentioned in previous analysis:
Supply pressure becomes absolutely dominant: prices continue to fall without rebounding, indicating that the release of new production capacity is a sustained and overwhelming force that cannot be countered by any seasonal recovery on the demand side.
The industry has entered a cruel clearing stage: prices fall below the cost line and accelerate their bottoming out, which is a process in which the market forces the elimination of high cost production capacity through price measures and promotes the industry’s supply and demand to find a new balance. The accelerated decline in the chart is likely to be accompanied by some small and medium-sized enterprises reducing or ceasing production.
Summary: The most intuitive epitome of the acrylic acid industry’s shift from tight balance to comprehensive surplus in 2025. It confirms that the industry is undergoing intense supply side adjustments.
Total acrylic acid production capacity by 2025
As of the end of June 2025, the total domestic production capacity of acrylic acid has increased to 4.4 million tons. This is mainly due to the addition of 320000 tons of production capacity in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it is expected that there will still be 740000 tons of planned new production capacity in the market.
Main new production capacity projects and distribution
The release of new production capacity in 2025 will be concentrated in several large enterprises, mainly distributed in the North and South China regions,
The core impact of acrylic acid import and export on the industry in 2025
Export side: Against the backdrop of China’s production capacity accounting for more than half of the world’s total and a sharp decline in domestic prices by 2025, exports are crucial for alleviating overcapacity. However, global market demand is also weak and facing competition from low-cost production capacity in regions such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, resulting in a significant compression of export profit margins.
Import end: Although the total amount may be small, every ton of high-end acrylic acid imported (such as for photoresist and medical gel) means a high-value market for foreign investment. The import dependence of high-end products still exceeds 70%, which directly quantifies the urgency and potential space for domestic industrial upgrading.
Core direction of acrylic acid development in 2026
To overcome the current predicament, the industry must shift from pursuing scale to high-quality development. There are three specific breakthrough directions:

1. High end and “technology premium”
This is the core path to break out of low-level price wars and obtain excess profits.
At present, high-end products such as medical grade acrylic acid (purity ≥ 99.99%) can have a terminal price three times that of ordinary products, but only a few domestic enterprises can produce them. The industry is shifting from “scale competition” to “technology premium” competition. In the future, we need to focus on breakthroughs in cutting-edge fields such as electronic grade acrylic monomers (used for semiconductor photoresist) and bio based acrylic acid.
2. Green process and cost reduction
This is fundamental to enhancing cost competitiveness and achieving sustainable development.
Disruptive technologies such as “direct oxidation of propane to produce acrylic acid” have the advantages of short process, low investment, and low cost compared to traditional multi-step processes, and are important development directions for the future. For example, the billion dollar acrylic acid industrial park invested by Keyuan Holdings in Maoming, Guangdong has adopted this globally leading green technology.
3. Integration of industrial chain and ecological construction
This is the key for top enterprises to consolidate their advantages and enhance their ability to resist risks.
Leading enterprises can significantly reduce costs by integrating upstream and downstream layout. If satellite chemistry achieves a self-sufficiency rate of over 95% in raw materials, the cost per ton is 12% lower than the industry average. Top enterprises are building competitive barriers through “technological iteration+industry chain integration”, and industry concentration continues to increase. In the future, enterprises with full industry chain collaboration capabilities will be more competitive.
In summary, 2025 is a turning point for the acrylic acid industry to experience pain. The sharp decline in prices is a direct manifestation of the contradiction of overcapacity. Looking ahead to the future, the model of simply expanding production capacity has come to an end, and the industry’s way out lies in technological innovation and value enhancement. Enterprises that can successfully move towards “high-end”, master “green technology” and complete “industrial chain integration” will be able to overcome cycles and occupy a leading position in the next round of high-quality development.

Prediction of Acrylic Acid Price Trend in 2026
1. Annual price range:
It is expected that the mainstream market (East China premium products) prices will fluctuate within the range of 5800-7800 yuan/ton. Bottom (approximately 5800 yuan/ton): Hard support constructed by the industry average cash cost line. Once the price falls below this line, it will trigger more high cost production capacity shutdowns, thereby reducing supply.
Top (about 7800 yuan/ton): Strong resistance is formed by the suppression of excess production capacity. Any rebound will stimulate the release of existing production capacity, leading to weak price increases.
2. Seasonal trend:
First half of the year: expected to continue weak. The inertia of decline at the end of 2025, high inventory, and low demand season (especially in the field of architectural coatings) will work together, and prices may test or even briefly break through the cost line.
In the second half of the year, there may be a slight recovery rebound. The driving force may come from: supply contraction caused by the clearance of production capacity below the cost line, mild replenishment during the traditional “golden September and silver October” demand peak season, or unexpected strength in crude oil (propylene raw material) prices. But the rebound height and sustainability will be very limited.
3. Analysis of core influencing factors:
The primary disadvantage is that the contradiction between the total production capacity of up to 4.5 million tons by 2025 and sluggish demand is fundamental. Although the new production increase in 2026 may slow down, it will take time to digest the stock.
Export: is the key to alleviating excess pressure. If overseas demand recovers or the RMB exchange rate is favorable, an increase in exports will become the most important upward catalytic factor.
High end: The prices of ordinary acrylic acid and high-end specialty acrylic acid will continue to diverge. The prices of electronic grade products (which may remain at 15000-40000 yuan/ton) are completely decoupled from the trend of bulk commodities, depending on technological breakthroughs.
Summary: 2026 will be the “grinding year” for the acrylic acid bulk market to confirm the bottom and digest excess production capacity. The overall profitability of the industry will be at a historical low. However, this is also the year of value discovery for high-end products. Enterprises capable of producing high value-added specialty products will have their prices and profits completely independent of the industry’s downturn cycle. Therefore, when observing prices in 2026, it is necessary to distinguish between the two distinct curves of “commodity price index” and “specialty product price”.

2025 is a crucial turning point for the Chinese propylene market. After years of rapid expansion, the supply and demand relationship in the industry has undergone a historic reversal, officially entering the stage of “comprehensive surplus” from “tight balance”. Under the dual pressure of releasing production capacity inertia and weak demand growth, the price center of the market has significantly shifted downwards, and the profitability of the entire industry is facing severe challenges.
2025 Core Summary
1. The imbalance between supply and demand has become the main theme: although the annual production capacity growth rate has slightly slowed down, the absolute increment is huge, and the total production capacity is expected to climb to 77.58 million tons. At the same time, downstream demand such as polypropylene (PP), which is the main consumer force, has been weak due to macroeconomic factors, and the supply-demand scissors gap continues to widen. Taking the Shandong market at the end of the year as an example, the mainstream transaction price fell to around 6000 yuan/ton, a significant decline from the high at the beginning of the year.
2. Structural collapse of industry profits: Under the dual pressure of oversupply and high costs, the industry is experiencing widespread losses. Except for the integrated unit that can still maintain a small profit, the independent propylene production unit and downstream industries such as epichlorohydrin and octanol have seen a significant decline in profits. Especially in the production of PP powder, due to its narrow price difference with the raw material propylene, it has been on the brink of losses for a long time, and the operating rate has remained low. There has even been a phenomenon of integrated equipment selling propylene raw materials in reverse, further exacerbating market pressure.
3. Deep adjustment of market structure: Industry concentration is accelerating, and leading enterprises are strengthening their market dominance through scale and integration advantages. There are 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity exceeding one million tons, and CR10 (the proportion of the top ten enterprises’ production capacity) has risen to 25.69%. The market landscape is evolving from “decentralized competition” to “giant dominance”, and small and medium-sized enterprises are facing enormous survival pressure under cost and technological disadvantages. The industry has already begun.
Based on market data and industry evolution logic by the end of 2025, the core theme of the propylene industry in 2026 will revolve around “deep clearance of overcapacity” and “brutal testing of the cost curve”. The following is a quantitative analysis and scenario deduction based on key data.
Core data: Starting from the market situation at the end of 2025
1. Price and Cost Baseline: By the end of 2025, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market has fallen to 6000 yuan/ton, which has already broken through the cash cost of most non integrated devices. The downstream PP powder production has been in a long-term loss (with a price difference of only 100-200 yuan/ton), resulting in a long-term operating rate below 10%, forming a strong negative feedback loop.
2. Supply rigid data:
Capacity inertia: It is expected that there will still be 6-8 million tons of new production capacity released nationwide in 2026, and even if the growth rate slows down, the absolute increase will still be huge.
Regional pressure: Taking Shandong as an example, the recent release of production capacity from facilities such as Binhua New Materials (PDH) and Lianhong New Materials (MTO) has increased the local daily output from 32600 tons to 33200 tons, and may further rise to 33700 tons. This’ micro ‘growth of local supply pressure is a microcosm of nationwide surplus.

3. Weak demand data: Except for PP, the profits of major downstream products such as propylene oxide and octanol have significantly decreased by -339.02% and -20.6% month on month by the end of 2025, indicating that the downstream capacity is approaching its limit.
2026 trend quantification deduction: three key dimensions
1. Price range prediction: cost pricing, bottom oscillation
The market price will be determined by the survivor with the highest marginal cost. Combining current data with cost structure:
Price ceiling (strong resistance level): 6200-6300 yuan/ton. This position corresponds to the full cost line of some PDH devices and integrated devices at present. Once the price approaches, profit driven supply will quickly rebound, thereby suppressing prices.
Core oscillation range: 5800-6100 yuan/ton. This range will cover most of the trading time in 2026. A price below 5900 yuan/ton will trigger large-scale production cuts in high cost units, especially MTO units that purchase methanol externally.
Key cost bottom line: 5500-5700 yuan/ton. This range corresponds to the cash cost line of the most cost-effective coal to olefin (CTO) and large-scale integrated facilities in China, and is expected to be the ultimate strong support for prices. If it falls below this line, it will trigger a large-scale production reduction at the industry level, but the probability is low.
2. Prediction of Capacity Clearing Process
The utilization rate of industry capacity will continue to be under pressure. Based on the current industry operating rate of about 65%, the deduction is as follows:
When the price remains below 5900 yuan/ton for 6-8 weeks, it is expected to first cause about 15-20% of the high cost marginal production capacity (including some old refining propylene units and independent MTO units) to experience cash flow depletion, entering a substantial shutdown or permanent exit process.
Based on a total production capacity base of over 77.58 million tons, the capacity scale for passive clearance in the first stage may be between 5-8 million tons. This will be a necessary condition for the market to achieve rebalancing.
3. Industry profitability and structural differentiation
Profit differentiation will further intensify, forming a “dual sky” pattern of “ice and fire”:
Cost characteristics of enterprise types (estimated) Key survival actions for 2026 profit prospects, low cash costs for top integrated enterprises (approximately 5500-5700 yuan/ton), and strong industrial chain buffering. Micro profit to break even. It can be adjusted through downstream product profits to cross the cycle. Counter trend expansion and integration: Utilize the downturn to carry out technological transformation and low-cost mergers and acquisitions.
The cost of independent PDH enterprises is greatly affected by fluctuations in imported propane prices, with cash costs of approximately 5800-6000 yuan/ton. Periodic losses. Profit depends on the ability to manage the price difference between propane and propylene. Ultimate hedging and logistics optimization: Lock in raw material price differences and control single ton costs.
Independent MTO and old equipment have high cash costs (generally above 6000 yuan/ton) and no cost advantage. Deep losses and negative cash flow. Reduce production to save life or permanently exit: Some devices will switch to “on/off” mode until shutdown.
Key Variables and Scenario Analysis

1. The international oil price center has risen significantly to over 90 US dollars per barrel. This will strongly push up the cost of naphtha and derivative routes from the cost side, providing unexpected support for propylene prices. The core range may move up to 6000-6400 yuan/ton, delaying the process of capacity clearance.
2. Slow rebalancing of supply and demand. The price fluctuated throughout the year in the range of 5800-6100 yuan/ton, and high cost production capacity slowly withdrew. The industry operating rate may slightly rebound to 68-70% by the end of the year. This is the most likely path.
3. Macroeconomic demand is further weaker than expected, and new production capacity is concentrated. The price may temporarily drop to the cost bottom line of 5500-5700 yuan/ton, triggering a severe and rapid clearance of production capacity, intensifying industry pains but shortening the adjustment time.
Conclusion
In 2026, the propylene industry will transition from the first stage of “price decline” to the second stage of “capacity clearance”. The market will use the entire year to answer a core question: how much production capacity cannot survive at a price level below 5900 yuan/ton?
For participants, this is no longer a story of pursuing growth, but a severe test of survival and efficiency. Investment and business decisions must be based on refined cost calculations and keen observation of production capacity exit signals. The ultimate recovery of the industry will begin with the continuous news of outdated production capacity being shut down, and this “clearing voice” will become the most noteworthy main theme of the market in 2026.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. On December 22nd, the average market price was 748 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. On December 21st, the Business Social Chemical Index was 763 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 27.59% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 690-780 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 760-870 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2100-2200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). There has been no change in the supply and demand pattern this week, with high production levels and supply remaining loose. Downstream alumina has shown moderate enthusiasm for entering the market recently, and the market is still in a stalemate, with more demand for caustic soda. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period. Short term domestic alumina prices have fluctuated slightly.
Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been consolidating this week. Domestic downstream buyers have been purchasing on demand, and there will be no positive support for the Shandong market next week. Demand has not substantially improved, and the overall supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a consolidating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.