According to statistics, in 2020, the price trend of domestic PX market will drop sharply, with the average price of 6900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 4300 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual drop of 37.68%. From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest price of domestic PX appears at the beginning of the year, with the highest price of 6900 yuan / ton, the lowest price of the whole year appears in May, with the lowest price of 4000 yuan / ton The PX market price is affected by domestic and foreign factors.

In 2020, China’s total PX production capacity is 26.165 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity is 5.6 million tons. However, the annual operating rate is about 7.25%, and the total output is about 19 million tons. However, the total import volume in 2020 is as high as 13 million tons. On the whole, PX’s dependence on foreign countries has declined, and the dependence on foreign countries is 41% in 2020. The commissioning of new domestic devices has led to a sharp rise in domestic PX self-sufficiency rate, which is higher than that in 2019 However, PX price is also the most important factor affecting the domestic market price of p-xylene.

Combined with the domestic market price trend chart and PX external price trend chart, the PX market price trend can be divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May, the PX market price trend drops sharply; the second stage is from June to the end of July, the PX market price rises slightly; the third stage is from August to the end of the year, the PX market price falls again.

The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May. The price trend of domestic PX market has been falling continuously. The domestic price has dropped from 6900 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton in May, a drop of 42.03%. From the perspective of domestic spot supply, PX has a substantial decline in the normal supply rate and the operating price of PX products. During this period, affected by the collapse of crude oil price, PX external price dropped sharply, PX external price fell to a new low in history, external price dropped from 857 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan to 450 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan, external price dropped sharply by 400 US dollars / ton, the collapse of external price was a major negative impact on domestic xylene market, and domestic xylene market price dropped sharply. From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of crude oil in the first stage dropped sharply, from 58 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the year due to the sudden drop of demand, the increase of shale oil production in the United States, and the bottleneck of oil storage capacity in the United States, especially the Cushing area is close to full load, which triggered one of the most eye-catching events of this year. The “negative oil price” event of WTI delivery monthly contract falling to – 37 US dollars, and the sharp drop of crude oil price has a great impact on the domestic oil market Toluene Market lost its support, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market dropped sharply. The price trend of downstream PTA market dropped sharply, with the price of PTA Market falling by 28.61%. During this period, affected by domestic public health events, the operating rate of textile industry was low, and the demand for upstream products dropped sharply, resulting in high inventory of PX and PTA products, and the market price continued to fall.

The second stage is from June to the end of July, PX market price rose slightly, domestic market price rose slightly from 4000 yuan / ton to 4800 yuan / ton, an increase of 20%. Domestic PX market price rose slightly, mainly due to the improvement of domestic demand and the rise of crude oil price, which boosted the domestic petrochemical market. In the second stage, the domestic PX operation rate was less than 70%. A 800000 ton production line was started in Tenglong aromatics plant. Hengli Petrochemical added 4.5 million tons of production capacity and started 2.25 million tons. Yangzi Petrochemical’s PX plant was in normal operation, Jinling Petrochemical plant was in stable operation, Qingdao Lidong plant was in full load operation, Qilu Petrochemical plant was in normal operation, Urumqi petrochemical plant was in about 50% operation, and domestic PX plant was in stable operation The supply was normal, the domestic p-xylene market was improved, and the PX market price was higher. During this period, the international crude oil price rose sharply, OPEC + entered the period of super scale production reduction, the epidemic situation improved, the demand recovered, and the international oil price began to rise. During the super scale production reduction period of OPEC + from May to July, WTI rebounded sharply to about $40 / barrel. The rising trend of international crude oil price brought cost support to the PX market price, and the PX price recovered. The price of PX was driven up by the price of crude oil. The price of PX rose from 450 US dollars / ton to 540 US dollars / ton. The price of PX rose by 100 US dollars / ton. The price of PX has a certain guiding role for the domestic PX market. The dependence of PX on foreign countries is still high. The rise of PX price is a good support for the domestic PX market. In addition, the domestic textile industry started to rise from 3300 yuan / ton to 3600 yuan / ton, and the domestic textile industry started to recover The domestic market price of p-xylene recovered and went up.

The third stage is from August to the end of the year. The PX market price returns to the decline stage. The domestic PX market price drops from 4800 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 10.42%. During this period, more than 70% of domestic PX units were started, Yangzi Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, Fuhai Chuang unit was started, Pengzhou petrochemical unit was stable in operation, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was normal in operation, Jinling Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, Qilu Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, and Urumqi petrochemical unit was started at about 50% With the resumption of the plant and the commissioning of Dongying Weilian chemical’s 1 million T / a PX plant, the domestic supply has basically recovered to the highest level this year, the domestic supply of p-xylene has increased, and the market price trend of p-xylene has repeatedly declined. The price of PX has been fluctuating from US $550 to US $600 per ton, and the price of PX has not changed much. However, due to the increase of supply in the domestic market, the price of PX in the domestic market has declined. During this period, the crude oil price has been around us $45 / barrel. Although the epidemic is still fermenting, the economy continues to recover, and the oil price has entered a relatively stable stage. The oil price has always been rising and falling, mainly in the range of shocks. Even the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in August and September, and the endless farce in the US election, did not bring about another dramatic shock to oil prices, such as the breakdown of OPEC + negotiations and negative WTI oil prices. In addition, a major breakthrough was made in Xinguan vaccine in the later period, oil prices opened an upward channel, and OPEC + reached an agreement to reduce production in early December, which also released a positive signal to the oil market. The shock of international oil prices brought a certain positive impact on domestic petrochemical products, and the price of PX market declined slightly. At this stage, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream was first suppressed and then increased, but the overall price trend was relatively stable, the foreign textile industry did not recover significantly, the domestic export market did not improve, the PTA market price remained at a low level, and the domestic p-xylene market was affected and went down.

From the perspective of PX products in 2020, China’s total PX production capacity is 26.165 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity is 5.6 million tons. The statistics of domestic new production capacity are as follows:

It is clear from the above table that domestic production capacity has risen sharply, and domestic supply has increased. The annual operating rate of PX is about 7.25%, and the annual output is expected to be about 19 million tons. The domestic p-xylene spot supply is still insufficient, and the domestic p-xylene still has a high degree of external dependence, which makes the domestic p-xylene pricing greatly affected by foreign countries. In 2020, all the new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year, resulting in a substantial increase in domestic supply and a sharp decline in domestic market price of p-xylene. In addition, the annual average profit of PX products is negative in 2020. The profit trend of production process with mixed xylene as raw material is shown in the figure below

There are two kinds of PX production process, one is naphtha as the main raw material, the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2020, the profit of using naphtha as raw material to produce PX is limited, but the profit of using MX as raw material to produce PX has been negative, the annual average profit is – 50 US dollars / ton, and the profit is negative, which has become the new normal in 2020. The domestic market of p-xylene is not improving, and the market price of PX will drop sharply in 2020..

Part of domestic PX is separated from mixed xylene. Crude oil price and domestic mixed xylene price are also the influencing factors of domestic market price trend of p-xylene. 2020 is a special year in history. In the past year, the world has experienced unprecedented impact of new epidemic situation, and the global economy has been hit hard; as well as Europe, America, Asia and other economies have introduced new policies The economic aid program is also a difficult year for economic recovery. The performance of international crude oil has experienced ups and downs. We have also witnessed many historical moments, such as the breakdown of OPEC + talks, ultra scale production reduction, “negative oil prices” and the farce ridden US election. According to the trend chart of xylene, the market price of mixed xylene dropped sharply in 2020, with an overall increase of 29.01%. In the first quarter, the price of mixed xylene plummeted. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand of global PX led to the negative profit era of PX.

97% of domestic PX is used to produce PTA. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2019, it is obvious from the figure above that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite close, and the domestic PX and PTA market prices have declined sharply. However, with the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the textile industry will improve in December 2020, and the rise of downstream prices is undoubtedly a good support for the domestic PX market.

From the domestic PX price trend chart in recent five years, we can see that 2020 is the year with the lowest PX price. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the Asian PX market will continue to be weak in 2021, with overcapacity and weak price trend in the Asian PX market, which will bring huge upward pressure. With the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply continues to increase greatly. Although there are still new units put into operation in domestic PTA enterprises next year and the demand has increased, the new PX production capacity is even greater, including the commissioning of 5 million tons / year PX unit in phase II of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, becoming the largest PX leading enterprise in China. With the commissioning of 2.8 million tons of units in Jiangsu Shenghong company, the PX self-sufficiency rate will gradually increase, and the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced Domestic supply and demand have improved, but the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus. There is a huge pressure on big PX exporting countries such as Japan and South Korea. It is very likely that they will sell to the domestic market and compete with domestic enterprises in price. The production loss of PX will continue. Therefore, PX will remain weak in 2021, and the negative profit of PX will become the norm. It is difficult for the domestic market price of p-xylene to rise The average price is about 5000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the textile spring sales season, and the domestic market price of p-xylene will be 6000 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, the domestic low price is expected to be about 3800 yuan / ton.

Commodity index: on December 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.59, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.31% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.88% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data showed that the trend of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionicity) showed a small upward trend in December. The reason for the slight increase is that the factory has stopped production and there is a slight shortage of goods.

Price quotation: as shown in the figure, the data shows that since mid November 2020, the mainstream quotation of domestic manufacturers has shown a fluctuating upward trend; especially in December, due to the continuous shutdown of polyacrylamide manufacturers, the existing inventory has been gradually consumed, and the market price has gradually increased; for manufacturers with sufficient supply, the price change is not so urgent; at the same time, due to the price callback of raw material acrylonitrile this month, the price of polypropylene has declined In fact, in severe winter, the downstream demand is less, and the boosting effect on the price of the demand side is weak.

Industrial chain: upstream: the domestic mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 9300 yuan / ton in October, rose nearly 3000 yuan / ton in November, and returned to the mainstream quotation of 12250 yuan / ton in December. The main acrylonitrile plant in Shanghai has resumed normal operation. The overhaul plan of 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which was originally scheduled to start on December 20, has been postponed, but the specific time is not clear. The 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Haijiang, Shandong Province is scheduled to be restarted from December 10 to 15, but it has not been restarted yet. Jilin chemical fiber Gaocheng acrylic fiber plant was shut down on December 5, and Shanghai Petrochemical North plant was shut down on December 6. In December, Sinopec’s settlement prices of acrylonitrile products in North China and East China were 12450 yuan / ton, up 2550-2600 yuan / ton compared with last month’s settlement. Ineos’s acrylonitrile plant in Germany fell due to insufficient supply of raw propylene. Global supply is still tight, and the number of inquiries from Europe and India increased. Asahi Kasei of Japan announced that the Far East contract price in January 2021 was US $1800 / T, up US $380 / T from December.

Industry: in December, polyacrylamide manufacturers continued to stop production, the demand for raw material acrylonitrile weakened, and the price of acrylonitrile has been callback for many times; at present, with the gradual consumption of domestic spot stock of polyacrylamide, some manufacturers are short of supply, and the price has been raised, that is, the price of this month is mainly affected by the supply situation.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the current demand support is insufficient, the manufacturer’s shutdown is less affected by the change of raw material price, and the market price of polyacrylamide is mainly affected by the supply situation caused by the manufacturer’s shutdown so far. It is said that the production will resume next month, but it is difficult to resume at present. The increase of supply side is limited, the seasonal purchasing pressure of demand is small, the possibility of price fluctuation is small, and the main trend is stable operation.

International crude oil callback, and the terminal road project is affected by cold weather, the demand of asphalt terminal market is low, and the domestic asphalt price is declining. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the asphalt price on December 25 was 2470 yuan / ton, which was 0.40% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

In the process of continuous improvement of international crude oil market, it is reported that mutated virus has been found in the UK, and most cities in the UK have implemented strict City closure measures. A number of countries around the world have suspended air traffic with the UK, and the demand for crude oil has been significantly restrained. This week, the international crude oil price had a correction, with WTI crude oil price down 2.05% and Brent crude oil price down 1.76%.

Overall, the domestic asphalt market demand fell to a low level. The results show that the temperature in North and central China turns cold, and the demand for terminal asphalt is weak; the terminal projects in South and southwest China are relatively stable, and the rigid demand is released steadily; in East China and Shandong, due to the weather temperature, the road construction projects are limited, and the demand for terminal asphalt drops to a low level; in Northeast and Northwest China, the rigid demand for asphalt basically ends, and the demand for asphalt is weak. Overall, the demand for asphalt in the North has basically ended, while that in the South has remained rigid.

Analysts from business news agency believe that when vaccination continues to benefit the crude oil market, it is reported that the new coronavirus mutates in the UK, the demand for crude oil in the international market loses support, and the international oil price begins to callback. In addition, the domestic asphalt market demand has dropped to a low level, and it is expected that the domestic asphalt price will follow the crude oil price callback.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

Propylene oxide market continued to rise this week. According to the data of business news agency’s block list, as of December 25, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18300 yuan / ton, up 2.81% compared with the beginning of the week, and down 5.18% compared with November 25.

At present, all the factories have no inventory, the tight spot supply situation continues, and the downstream new orders are weak, but there are generally orders to be delivered, which supports the market. The delivery and investment are stable, and the inventory of the industrial chain is low. This week, the new orders of propylene oxide manufacturers continue to rise. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 17600-17700 yuan / ton, while the current mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 18100-18200 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, December 24, Shandong propylene market prices have declined. According to the price chart of the business community, propylene prices rose continuously in late November, with an increase of over 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price remained stable again. On the 4th, the price began to rise comprehensively. From the 3rd to the 8th, the price rose about 450 yuan / ton, up 5.90%. On the 9th, the price remained stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up for the price rise, and some enterprises fell slightly. On the 11th, the price began to decline for the second time, and continued to decline on weekends. On the 14th, the price dropped 200-250 yuan / ton In addition to the upward trend, the overall price rose by about 50 yuan / ton on the 21st and then remained stable. Today, some of the prices fell. The current market transaction is between 7850 yuan / ton and 8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 7900 yuan / ton and 7950 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is not much, the pressure is not big, the shipment is general.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 24, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol reference 11166.67 yuan / ton, increased by 5.02% compared with the beginning of the week; downstream soft foam polyether, on December 25, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong rose, the price of raw material epoxy propylene alkane rose, the cost was under pressure, the downstream chasing high sentiment was limited, the demand for rigid replenishment still existed, and the manufacturers were very satisfied The attitude of the market does not change, and the market talks have gone up.

3、 Future forecast

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that the current raw material propylene prices down, the impact of the cost side is limited, the supply and demand relationship dominates the market, the current supply is still tight, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will mainly run at a high level, more still need to pay attention to market information.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 23, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 29000 yuan / ton, which was 2333 yuan / ton lower than a week ago (reference price 31333 yuan / ton on December 14), a decrease of 7.45%; and 4333 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month (reference price 33333 yuan / ton on December 1), a decrease of 13%.

Since December, the market of silicone DMC has been weak and downward

In the first ten days of December, China’s domestic silicone DMC market showed a weakening trend. The main reason is that the high and firm price of silicone DMC in recent years has made the downstream unable to bear. The resistance to the high price has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has also declined. Therefore, we should be more cautious and wait-and-see. However, due to the fact that the silicone DMC factories still deal with the early orders, the spot supply is always tight. Therefore, although the silicone DMC was in a weak situation at the beginning of this month, only a few factories with high offer lowered the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 2000 yuan / ton, and most other factories still maintained firm quotation. As of December 13, the high-end offer of silicone DMC market is around 32500-33000 yuan / ton.

In late December, on December 14, a leading silicone DMC manufacturer in Shandong sharply reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 3500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC dropped to 29000 yuan / ton. Most of the other factories closed the silicone DMC once again. On the 16th and 17th, Shandong Dachang lowered the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC to 27000 yuan / T. In this week, the downstream demand is still insufficient, and the market is running in a weak position. The closed offer is common, and most of them do not offer. The manufacturer’s quotation of silicone DMC is reduced by 500-1000 yuan / ton.

At present, the news of silicone DMC market is relatively calm. After the decline of silicone DMC, there is no large-scale replenishment in the downstream, and most of them are still waiting to fall. At present, there are a small number of stock holders in East China, and the market quotation is around 28000-30000 yuan / ton.

As of December 23, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 29000 yuan / ton, which was 2333 yuan / ton or 7.45% lower than that one week ago (reference price of 31333 yuan / ton on December 14), and 4333 yuan / ton or 13% lower than that at the beginning of the month (reference price of 33333 yuan / ton on December 1).

On the upstream side, since December, China’s metal silicon market has been stable and slightly down, As of December 23, 2020, Fujian ᦇ 441 silicon market price is stable, the current price range is 13400-13600 yuan / ton, with an average market price of 13500 yuan / ton; Huangpu port area ා 441 silicon market price is reduced by 50 yuan / ton, the current price range is 14000-14100 yuan / ton, and the average market price is 14050 yuan / ton; the metal silicon market in Shanghai is stable, with the current price range of 14800-15000 yuan /The average price is 14900 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the reference price of silicon metal is 14025 yuan / ton, which is 0.72% higher than that on December 1 (13925 yuan / ton).

Demand cautious short term silicone DMC weak finishing operation

At present, the market of silicone DMC is weak and stable, and the purchasing power of downstream is weakened. In addition, the support of raw materials is also relatively weak in the early stage, and many factories are closed. Therefore, the business society silicone DMC data division believes that in the short term, the silicone DMC market will be mainly based on maintaining stability and finishing operation.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 22, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 11166 yuan / ton. Compared with December 20 (reference price of 10633 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 533 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.02%; compared with December 1 (reference price of 12633 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 1467 yuan / ton, or 11.61%.

Raw material trend callback drives propylene glycol market to rise finally

Since the beginning of this month, the domestic industrial propylene glycol market has been fluctuating and falling due to the dual impact of the upstream raw material propylene oxide Market and the insufficient downstream demand. Since last week, the quotation of some factories has been increased occasionally, but due to the influence of insufficient demand, the inventory has gradually accumulated and has to yield profits for shipment. Until this week, the price of propylene oxide as raw material has been adjusted back, which has led to a sharp rise in the market price of propylene glycol. At present, on the supply side, it is reported that dep propylene glycol may have a parking and maintenance plan recently, and it is expected that the short-term market inventory may be reduced, but the inventory in the factory is still relatively abundant; in terms of demand, the downstream purchase of propylene glycol is not strong, In terms of raw material cost, according to the trend of raw material propylene oxide in recent two days, the cost support of propylene glycol is obviously increased compared with the previous period, and the support is more powerful.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 22, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 11166 yuan / ton. Compared with December 20 (reference price of 10633 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 533 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.02%; compared with December 1 (reference price of 12633 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 1467 yuan / ton, or 11.61%.

Upstream, since the end of last week, the domestic propylene oxide market has begun to rise steadily, enterprises overhaul, factory inventory is not much, supply is tight. In this week, propylene oxide supply did not improve significantly, downstream demand was better, orders increased, and propylene oxide market continued to rise. At present, as of December 22, the overall trend of domestic propylene oxide market continued to be strong, with the reference price of propylene oxide of 17800.00 yuan / ton, up 3.6% compared with December 1 (17166.67 yuan / ton).

Cost support and demand can not be combined with propylene glycol short-term finishing operation

At present, the trend of raw material propylene glycol is better, which gives strong support to propylene glycol cost, but the demand for propylene glycol is still not negligible. Therefore, the data analyst of business community propylene glycol believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will be narrow, and the adjustment range is limited.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong remained stable for the time being, with an offer of 1836.67 yuan / ton, up 8.04% over the same period last year. Overall, this week’s urea market temporarily stable, December 18 urea commodity index was 85.43.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. At the end of this week, the price of Yangmei plain urea was 1850 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea was quoted at 1820 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1840 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall domestic demand is weak. Affected by the air pollution control, the plate operating rate continues to decline. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase moderately, and the agricultural sector makes inquiries. The operators are cautious about high price goods and do not prepare a lot of goods.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall rise of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 5366.67 yuan / ton, up 29.32% year-on-year; the price of liquid ammonia rose this week, from 3216.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3233.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.72% compared with the same period of last year. This week, the price of melamine downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 7200.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week urea cost support is strong.

3、 Future forecast

In the last ten days of December, the market situation of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. According to urea analysts of business club, the current demand for agriculture is one, downstream industries are enthusiastic about urea purchasing, and industrial demand is purchasing on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6975 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6962 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.18% during the week, a rise of 2.58% on a month on month basis, and a 25.68% rise year-on-year.

In terms of regional market conditions, the ethanol market in Northeast China is stable; the ethanol market in East China and Shandong is high; the ethanol market in Henan is weak; the molasses ethanol market in Guangxi is high; the ethanol market in Guangdong is up; the ethanol market in Anhui is strong; the ethanol market in Sichuan is in operation; and the ethanol market in Yunnan is in a wait-and-see manner.

From the perspective of raw corn, from the point of view of raw corn, this week, corn prices are weak, domestic temporary storage corn is targeted, and the market bullish expectation is further weakened. From the perspective of demand, the downstream liquor demand has not been significantly improved, and it is mainly based on rigid demand procurement. In terms of export, the demand for sterilized alcohol abroad is weak, so the downstream demand for ethanol is still weak.

The latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong area: 6900-7000 yuan / ton

Excellent grade in Shandong Province: 7500-7600 yuan / ton

No water in Shandong Province 7600-7650 yuan / ton

General grade 6800-6900 yuan / ton in southern Jiangsu

In southern Jiangsu Province, no water: 7350-7450 yuan / ton

General grade 6950 yuan / ton in Northern Jiangsu

In Anhui Province, corn is about 7000-7150 yuan / ton

Cassava in Anhui Province is about 6900 yuan / ton

Anhydrous water in Anhui Province is about 7700 yuan / ton

Excellent grade in Henan Province: 6950-7050 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7400-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province: 6750-6800 yuan / ton

No water coal in Hebei Province 7000-7050 yuan / ton

Honey alcohol in Guangxi: 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi: 7100-7200 yuan / ton

Absolute ethanol in Guangxi: 7550 yuan / ton

In Guangdong, cassava alcohol is about 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province is about 7950-8000 yuan / ton

General grade of corn alcohol in Heilongjiang Province: 6400-6600 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin area ordinary alcohol 6650 yuan / ton including tax

Corn alcohol in Sichuan is about 7500-7600 yuan / ton, including tax

Molasses alcohol in Yunnan: 6800 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol 6900 yuan / ton in Yunnan

In terms of logistics, freight is rising at present. Heilongjiang Shandong freight is 350 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang north Jiangsu 545 yuan / ton, Anhui Nanchang 250 yuan / ton, Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 160-220 yuan / ton. The above prices are without tickets.

It is possible that the price of raw material corn will weaken slightly. In the aspect of logistics, it is difficult to improve in the short term. The price continues to rise. Under the stable supply, the price may fall down. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market is expected to be in the doldrums.

1、 Price trend

Take sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example. According to the data of the business club’s large list, the price of titanium dioxide rose this week. At the end of last week, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 16000 yuan / ton, while that of this week was 16666.67 yuan / ton. The price rose by 4.17% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, titanium dioxide price high operation, new single price high. Up to now, the domestic ex factory price of rutile titanium dioxide is 16300-17000 yuan / ton, and that of anatase titanium dioxide is 13500-14500 yuan / ton. At present, the export orders of enterprises have increased, and the foreign trade export market has maintained a good growth. The domestic spot is very tense, and the price is high.

In October 2020, China’s titanium dioxide output was 322900 tons, an increase of 20700 tons compared with September, a month on month increase of 6.85%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.57%. From January to October, the total output of titanium dioxide was about 2.8392 million tons, an increase of 9.57% over the previous year, an increase of 248000 tons.

According to customs data, in October 2020, China’s titanium dioxide export was about 110200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.84%, and a month on month decrease of 1.43%. From January to October, the cumulative export was about 1.005 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 21.88%. In October 2020, China’s titanium dioxide import was about 16600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.88%, and a month on month increase of 13.90%. From January to October, the total import was about 139800 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08%.

In terms of raw materials, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area is stable this week, and some prices are slightly loose. Downstream buyers are under great pressure and mainly wait-and-see, and the actual transaction situation is general. Up to now, the price of 46,10 titanium ore is 1890-2100 yuan / ton for small and medium-sized manufacturers, 2050 yuan / ton for 47,20 ore and 1320-1350 yuan / ton for 38,42 ore without tax. Downstream cost pressure is high, procurement is more cautious, titanium concentrate shipping pressure. In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate is stable. It is a single opinion.

According to customs data, China imported 285900 tons of titanium ore in October, up 5.73% year-on-year and 41.02% month on month. From January to October, the total import was about 2.4608 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 18.76%. In October, China exported 567 tons of titanium ore, down 77.64% year-on-year and 75.79% month on month. From January to October, the total export volume was about 19048 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.67%.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club titanium dioxide analysts believe: the current raw material titanium ore price is high, titanium dioxide cost support is strong. In terms of demand, the export of titanium dioxide kept a good growth, and the overall inventory of manufacturers was low. Domestic spot is relatively tight, the price is high. It is expected that the spot market of titanium dioxide will continue to strengthen in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 16, the average price of domestic power lithium iron phosphate was 36000.00 yuan / ton, the market price was stable, the supply and demand were balanced, the downstream demand was limited, the operating rate remained high, and the market demand was not significantly improved. At present, the price of dynamic lithium iron phosphate was stable, the market was mainly stable, and there was no significant change in price changes.

The price range of lithium iron phosphate power market is 33000-36000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35000 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the downstream demand has not been significantly improved, and the overall market purchasing atmosphere is general. At present, the power type lithium iron phosphate 34000-36000 yuan / ton, the price is mainly stable, the enterprise starts normal, the merchant ships actively, the logistics is smooth, the transaction price basically maintains the cost online and offline, inventory No pressure, mostly contract customers. In the second half of 2020, with the advent of new cars, the demand for lithium iron phosphate has not been significantly increased. With its safety performance, service life and price advantages, LiFePO4 has a firm foothold in the industry. With the development of society, people have higher requirements for the endurance of electric vehicles, taking into account the cost, safety performance and service life of electric vehicles in the future In the market, the market share of LiFePO4 will be further improved.

At present, the mainstream price of industrial grade lithium carbonate ranges from 42500 yuan / T to 45000 yuan / T. the overall market negotiation center is stable, and the battery grade lithium carbonate price range is 46000-47500 yuan / T.

The chemical index on December 15 was 847 points, 6 points lower than yesterday, 16.63% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 41.64% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe: in the short term, lithium iron phosphate Market to stable operation. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)