According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic TDI price trend rose first and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 20075.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 23625.00 yuan/ton. Within the month, the price rose 3550 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 17.68%, of which the highest price in the month was 27166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 35.33% over the beginning of the month.

The supply side continued to be tight. In the later period, the lower reaches resisted the high price. In October, the domestic TDI price rose sharply and fell sharply. When the National Day holiday came back, TDI continued to rise. At the beginning of the month, under the news of factory closure, equipment maintenance, and limited supply in large factories, the suppliers kept rising. In addition, there was a big gap in the overseas supply market, and domestic factories turned to export trade. The domestic TDI spot goods were tight, and the trade market was bullish. The holders held on to the market, and the price continued to rise. By October 17, TDI had risen to a maximum of 27166.67 yuan/ton in the month, up 35.33% from the beginning of the month. In late October, the TDI market fell, and the trade market offered a high price. However, the lower reaches were obviously resistant to high prices. Some of the holders began to ship at low prices. The market’s willingness to ship on a profitable basis increased, and the focus of trading continued to move downward.

On the cost side, the toluene market was first strong and then weak. The price at the end of the month was 7610 yuan/ton, 70 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month of 7680 yuan/ton, with an overall drop of 0.91%. After the National Day holiday, due to the strong trend of crude oil on the cost side, the toluene market was boosted. At the beginning of the month, the price of toluene rose actively. However, the downstream demand was weak, and the demand side was difficult to support. After the rise of the price of toluene, it fell back in a narrow range. The downstream demand of toluene did not perform well in the middle and late days. In addition to the impact of public health events in many places, logistics and transportation were limited, and the shipment of toluene was blocked, and the price continued to decline.

According to the TDI data analyst of the business agency, since late October, the domestic TDI market has been weak and falling, the market inquiry atmosphere is light, and the downstream is resistant. The suppliers are cautious in their offer mentality, some profitable orders are shipped at low prices, some of them have firm prices, and the market price is chaotic. Although the market is still favorable, the market trading is weak and difficult to support, and the supply and demand performance is stagnant. It is expected that the short-term TDI will wait and see, and the price range will fluctuate, Pay special attention to the downstream follow-up.

Price: 678.9 yuan/barrel

Analysis: overnight international oil prices jumped 3% on Wednesday. Affected by this, SC crude oil jumped out of the stalemate for several consecutive days on the 27th day, and the market’s bullish enthusiasm quickly rebounded. On the 27th, the main contract of SC crude oil rose 1.83% to close at 678.9 yuan/barrel. Macroscopically, the US dollar has declined, and the pressure on US dollar denominated commodities has eased; In addition, the weak economic data strengthened the view that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase, and the oil market received some support. On the supply and demand side, the US oil export reached a record high, which was beneficial to the higher operating rate of US refineries.

Forecast: In the short term, the macro and supply and demand sides are favorable for the oil market, and the oil price is short-term or strong. However, the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia is coming into effect soon. The oil market is uncertain due to the disturbance of such factors as geopolitics. In the medium and long term, the bad news on the demand side will continue to suppress oil prices. The increased risk of the global economy entering recession will make the oil market continue to maintain a volatile trend. A short-term rebound cannot change the long-term trend.

The market of ammonium chloride is weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic ammonium chloride dry ammonium was 980 yuan/ton on the 26th, stable compared with the previous day; It was down 0.76% from Monday. The domestic soda plant started at a high level, the pressure on the enterprise’s ammonium chloride inventory is still there, the demand is weak in the face of ammonium chloride support, and the price of liquid ammonia of raw materials has fallen recently, so the cost of ammonium chloride has declined. The industrial chain continues to be weak, and the ammonium chloride market remains weak

The future forecast shows that the market supply is loose, the demand is flat, and the raw material price is low. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will continue to be weak in the short term

The domestic fluorite price remained high. As of the 24th day, the average domestic fluorite price was 2956.25 yuan/ton, 3.53% higher than the beginning price of 2855.56 yuan/ton, and 16.06% higher than that of April. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Since the middle of October, the price has remained high. At present, the price has reached a new high in the year.

Supply side: raw ore is still tight, fluorite quotation is high

The operating rate of domestic supply side remained low. Mining enterprises faced increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited commencement of fluorite flotation, insufficient spot supply, and limited import of fluorite. The price of fluorite remained high.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid can maintain the refrigerant market

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market in the downstream of fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the 24th, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 10300 yuan/ton, and the price increase in October was 3.15%. The hydrofluoric acid enterprises started work normally, and the demand was guaranteed. The rise in the hydrofluoric acid market price has formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price remains high.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much. The price of trichloroethylene has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The focus of R134a trading remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the well-known fluorine chemical industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and in fields such as national defense, military, and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, and photovoltaic panels. With the demand for new energy, the outlook of the fluorite industry chain has been improved accordingly.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises are about to enter the seasonal shutdown period. In addition, the supply of raw ore is very tight in the near future. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price has a trend of rising, and the demand in the new energy field is driven. Chen Ling, an analyst from the business community, believes that the fluorite market price may remain high.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market generally declined, while the Henan market fell first and then stabilized, with a significant decline. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4660 yuan/ton on October 17 and 4560 yuan/ton on October 24, with a decline of 2.15% in the week and 21.48% compared with the same period last year.

As of October 24, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4550 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4560 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4190-4560 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market as a whole was dominated by weakness. The Henan market fell first and then stabilized. The Hebei and Jiangxi markets also declined to varying degrees. Although the cost of methanol rose in the week, the price of liquefied gas related products fell due to the decline of international crude oil. In addition, due to the recent social and public health events, the market transportation is limited, the manufacturer’s shipment is blocked, and the inventory has increased. In terms of demand, the improvement of terminal consumption capacity is limited at present, and most downstream enterprises maintain the replenishment on demand, so they are cautious. Negative factors dominated the dimethyl ether market.

To sum up, the current market price of methanol as raw material is rising, which provides some support for dimethyl ether in terms of cost. In terms of demand, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the downstream is cautious, and the market trading atmosphere is general. However, the current low level of supply in Henan market has brought certain benefits. It is expected that dimethyl ether will continue to consolidate in the short term.

Price trend of ethylene oxide

According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic spot market on October 21 was 7200 yuan/ton, down 4% from the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (10.1); It was 12.79% higher than the average market price of 6383.33 yuan/ton on August 1.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

In terms of cost, the price of raw ethylene has fallen recently. On October 20, the CIF middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 880 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the CIF middle price of Southeast Asia on October 3.

Downstream demand, the price of polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer in the main downstream has been greatly reduced. Affected by poor terminal demand, the market is lack of confidence. At present, the loss of polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer has expanded, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has decreased, and the demand for ethylene oxide has been balanced.

Fundamentals Overview

On the supply side, since October, the 300 thousand ton ethylene oxide unit in Selbang has been shut down. In terms of new capacity, 730000 tons of satellite petrochemical has been released and operated under low load; Gulei device was fed on October 11; The 168000 ton unit of Sinopec Shanghai operates normally; Weekly output rose slightly month on month.

On the supply and demand side, the terminal demand is placed in the real estate industry, and the demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer, one of the main downstream players, is expected to be poor, generally showing strong supply and weak demand.

Future market forecast

On the whole, the market pattern of ethylene oxide tends to be generally strong in supply and weak in demand. It is expected that the supply side will increase significantly with the restart of devices and the increase of new capacity. The weak expectation of the downstream market will depress the price of ethylene oxide, which is expected to be weak and stable in the short term.

Today, the phenol market continued the trend of yesterday and fell slightly. The negotiation in East China fell by 50 yuan/ton, ranging from 10500 to 10550 yuan/ton. On the whole, the mainstream negotiation price did not change much, and the low point continued to dip. The negotiation atmosphere in the venue was quiet, and the suppliers offered according to the market. The contract volume was basically exhausted, and the terminal just needed to follow up, so the delivery was slow.

On October 20, phenol offers in various markets across the country were as follows:

Region, quotation, daily rise and fall

East China, 10500., – 50

Shandong region., 10800., 0

Around Yanshan, 10800., 0

South China., 10550., 0

On the 18th, the raw material acetone factory raised 200 yuan/ton, of which the latest price of Sinopec in East China was 6200 yuan/ton, and that of Sinopec in North China was 6100-6200 yuan/ton. The centralized increase of the factory has significantly boosted the market, and the enthusiasm of the suppliers has increased, but the market talks have improved. Affected by the rise of raw material acetone again, MIBK market rose, and the overall negotiation range was 11600-11800 yuan/ton.

With MIBK market rising sharply, enterprises mainly deliver orders, the supply of spot market is insufficient, and the circulation of goods on the market is limited. It is expected that MIBK will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 18, the price trend of PET water bottle has declined. At present, the average price is 7860 yuan/ton, which is 2.24% lower than yesterday’s price. The overall PET market is narrow and weak. At present, the focus of negotiations is low, the manufacturers are actively shipping, the logistics is smooth, and the current operating rate is stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on October 8 was 11700 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on October 17 was 12366 yuan/ton. Caprolactam prices rose 5.70% on the 10th day.

2、 Market analysis

After the festival, the market price of caprolactam continued to rise. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, the cost side of caprolactam was well supported, the market supply was tight, downstream procurement was active, and the manufacturer operated at a high price. In the later period, the market of raw material pure benzene fell back, the cost support weakened, the downstream PA6 market was not good, and caprolactam began to consolidate. As of October 17, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 13100 yuan/ton, which was withdrawn by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 13100 yuan/ton, and the acceptance is self extracting.

Raw material pure benzene market, after the festival, pure benzene rose continuously and fell back rapidly. During the festival, boosted by crude oil, the price of Asian pure benzene in the external market rose, and the domestic market was in a favorable atmosphere. In addition, the enterprises in Shandong had good shipments, so the price continued to rise. However, after the festival, the crude oil continued to fall, and the trend of downstream styrene was opposite to that of pure benzene, which continued to weaken, narrowing the price difference with pure benzene. The fundamentals of the pure benzene market were poor, and the price fell rapidly. At the beginning of this week, the stocks of pure benzene in East China ports accumulated to 59200 tons, and a large number of imported ships will still arrive next week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was raised twice and then lowered, with a total increase of 150 yuan/ton to 8000 yuan/ton (the price in Hebei and Shandong regions was raised to 8050 yuan/ton).

3、 Future market forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the recent raw material market trend is weak, and the caprolactam market tends to be stable after the continuous rise. There is no obvious change in the on-site supply, and some enterprises plan maintenance. It is expected that the short-term caprolactam market will be dominated by stable consolidation.