On December 30, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

 

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In December, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market remained at a high level, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant started normal operation, the supply of goods in the near future was normal, and the domestic price trend remained at a high level. In the near future, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has improved, and the downstream purchase is on demand. In the near future, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

 

In December, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China fell slightly, down 1.02%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1600 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1600 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1650 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1650 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance devices have been restarted continuously, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market has increased, and the situation of goods in the field is general. The price of ammonium nitrate Market in December is stable due to negative factors, and the price of raw material nitric acid has declined, which is a negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate.

 

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The liquid ammonia Market in the upstream fell in December, with a drop of 3.01% in December. The market of liquid ammonia in China is slightly lower, with a slight decline in the northern region. Most of the manufacturers reported stable prices. Some of them went down 50-100 yuan / ton. Some enterprises in Shandong Province, the main production area, continuously lowered prices. Prices in the northwest region remained stable. At present, there is a surplus of local ammonia. In particular, some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply, and the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing. However, the manufacturers with a large amount of ammonia are mainly stable The main quotation is 2850-2950 yuan / ton. In North China, the liquid ammonia is also slightly lower. The lack of demand leads to the current ammonia storage and price decline. The shipment pressure increases significantly. There are many downstream stoppages. The main quotation in North China is 2800 yuan / ton up and down. The increasing pressure of environmental protection in Hebei Province has led to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises such as China and Afghanistan has led to the weak demand in the downstream, the accumulation of enterprises and no significant change in prices. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2770-2850 yuan / ton, and the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic. The overall trend of the upstream liquid ammonia Market declined, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable.

 

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw materials falls, and the market price of ammonium nitrate loses cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price remained stable in December, and the asphalt price was reported as 3374 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 0.48% from 3358 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

 

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2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: in December, although the international crude oil price rose sharply, the overall demand of asphalt market was not good, and the rise of asphalt price was blocked.

 

Industry chain: in December, China US trade relations continued to develop well, and market sentiment continued to develop well; moreover, OPEC’s decision to deepen the production reduction agreement further pushed up the international crude oil price. Meanwhile, the crude oil market in December was less bearish, with WTI crude oil market price rising 11.37% in December.

 

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In terms of asphalt Market: the weather turns cold, and the demand for asphalt terminal is poor. In December, the demand in Northeast, Shandong and North China basically stops, and there is still a small amount of demand for ending in refineries, converting to production, or selling to other places, and in East and South China. According to the latest data from the Bureau of statistics, the production of petroleum asphalt from January to November 2019 was 36.907 million tons, up 21.4% year on year. Oversupply is the main reason for the sluggish price performance of the asphalt Market in 2019. Moreover, the off-season characteristics of asphalt in December are obvious, so the price of asphalt market is weak.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that although the international crude oil price has risen, the new year’s Spring Festival holiday will come and the road construction will be basically stopped. The demand of domestic asphalt market will continue to shrink in January, and the asphalt price is expected to fall steadily in December.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, on December 26, the market price of domestic n-propanol fell slightly. The average price of sample enterprises was 10600 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than last week, down 1.85%.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: at the beginning of this week, the domestic n-propanol market was in weak and stable operation. Until December 26, the quotation of the domestic n-propanol manufacturer Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. was lowered. At present, the quotation is 8500 yuan / ton (including tax for bulk water), which is 600 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. The factory reference of the n-propanol manufacturer is 8500-8900 yuan / ton. The quotation of the dealer is now compared At the beginning of the month, the price of main stream area is around 10500-11200 yuan / ton, including 10500 yuan / ton (including tax barrel) of n-propanol sold by Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. in Zibo, Shandong Province; 11600-12000 yuan / ton for main stream area, including 11600 yuan / ton for Shanghai Lianyi chemical Co., Ltd. in Dalian, Taiwan（ Barreled specification: 165kg).

 

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Industry chain: at present, the market of propylene oxide is rising. The terminal demand is large, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream polyether is fair, the inventory of the propylene oxide plant is quickly digested, and the quotations of the enterprises are increased one after another. On the 26th, the cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 10300 yuan / ton, and that of East China mainstream market was 10600 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 10300 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10100 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the prediction of the business agency, it is expected that the domestic n-propanol market will maintain a weak finishing operation before the festival due to the influence of logistics and other factors.

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Looking at the domestic xylene market in 2019, the overall market is characterized by high volatility. The fluctuation of crude oil market and the change of supply and demand of industrial chain have a great impact on the market trend. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the xylene market opened at 4976 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, with a minimum of 4880 yuan / ton, then rebounded wave by wave, reaching a peak of 6910 yuan / ton in mid October, and then gradually fell back to 5990 yuan / ton. It rose about 20.3% in the whole year, with the highest increase of about 38.9% and the largest fluctuation of about 41.6%.

 

1、 Price trend

 

2、 Retrospective analysis

 

The first stage: from the beginning of January to the middle of April, it opened at 4976 yuan / ton, with a minimum of 4880 yuan / ton, then rebounded to a maximum of 5770 yuan / ton, up about 18.2%. The main factors supporting the rebound are the industry’s bottom reading rebound and the support driven by the rise of crude oil.

 

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1.4q2018 rebound and bottom reading after slump

 

Since the beginning of November 2018, xylene has fallen rapidly by nearly 3000 yuan / ton, and the market price has returned to a low level. Some people in the industry began to enter the market to copy the bottom, and the port storage in East China even appeared the status of no irrigation available.

 

2. Crude oil rise provides cost support

 

At the beginning of the new year, the price of the international crude oil market stabilized and fluctuated upward, supporting the cost of upstream petrochemical products. Driven by the resumption of work, xylene market is expected to increase bullish.

 

3. Gradual easing of Sino US trade

 

Due to the gradual easing of Sino US trade progress and the expected improvement of downstream demand, xylene market began to rebound steadily.

 

The second stage: from late April to early June, from 5770 yuan / ton to gradually callback, the lowest to about 5250 yuan / ton, down about 9%. The main factors of the shock correction are the negative impact of the environmental protection incident of the affected water and the drop of crude oil shock.

 

1. High inventory and weak demand

 

With the xylene port inventory rising to a new high in recent two years, the progress of Sino US trade negotiations has been surging again, and there is no sign of recovery in downstream demand. Market participants’ expectations for demand have fallen, and the xylene market has started to shake back.

 

2. International crude oil shocks fall

 

With the warmer weather in the northern hemisphere, the seasonal decrease of heating oil demand, coupled with weak industrial demand, led to the downturn of the refined oil market, the failure of the petrochemical industry chain to keep pace with the rise of raw material prices, resulting in serious losses in the second quarter of the restructuring industry chain, the reduction of production load of some disproportionation units and restructuring units, the reduction of crude oil demand, and the correction of price shocks.

 

3. Water environmental protection incident

 

Due to the further investigation of the domestic safety and environmental protection inspection of the water incident, some enterprises were forced to shut down in stages. Under the negative impact of many demand areas such as Sinopec and PetroChina stopping the export of refined oil in some areas and selling off inventory in large quantities, the demand of xylene industry was weak, and the market price began to fall.

 

The third stage: from the middle of June to the first ten days of October, xylene has come out of the strongest rebound trend in the year. It has rebounded steadily since the opening of 5250 yuan / ton, with the highest rising to about 6910 yuan / ton, up about 31.6%. The main factors supporting the rise are the sudden increase in tensions between the US and Iran, as well as the tight supply-demand relationship.

 

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1. Oil transfer and PX demand promotion

 

In July, the demand for oil transfer is booming, and the sales volume of xylene is increasing, especially in the first half of the year when PX added more production capacity, which led to a large demand for xylene production outside Hengli petrochemical and other enterprises. In addition, the 70th National Day military parade made the market worry about the transportation of dangerous chemicals in advance. In September, the downstream stock was active, which broke the supply and demand structure of the xylene market, and also promoted the xylene market price to rise strongly.

 

2. Continuous decline of port inventory

 

From the end of March to the middle of July, the arbitrage window of the internal and external market was basically closed. With the price rising all the way, traders were more cautious in importing xylene. The average monthly import volume of xylene in 3q2019 continued to fall compared with that in 2q2019, down nearly 50%, resulting in the rapid consumption of port inventory, from more than 60000 tons in early July to less than 20000 tons in late September.

 

3. Tensions between the United States and Iran prompt traders to fill the gap

 

The strong rise from July to August has pushed the price of xylene to a high level of about 6000 yuan / ton in the year. At this time, there are many views on the short trend of crude oil, leading some traders to short the xylene in late September. However, the tense US Iraq relationship suddenly intensified, which prompted the international crude oil market to jump into the sky and soar, and then promoted the demand for replenishment of air space in late September. When the port inventory has dropped to the ultra-low level, the market price of xylene will then soar out of control.

 

The fourth stage: from the middle of October to the end of December, it began to slow down from 6910 yuan / ton, with a minimum of about 5710 yuan / ton, down about 17.4%. The main factors contributing to the lower volatility are weak downstream demand and increased market supply.

 

1. Increase in market supply

 

With the strong rise of domestic xylene price in September, the arbitrage window of internal and external market was opened again, and the arbitrage space was large. In the middle of October, xylene import increased, and port inventory began to increase.

 

2. Weak downstream demand

 

With the seasonality of oil transfer demand becoming weak, the demand for solvents gradually entered the off-season from November to December. Due to the narrow price gap of px-mx for a long time, coupled with the weak export demand of the downstream textile industry, the operating rate of PX manufacturers decreased, and the demand for xylene decreased, and the market price gradually fell down.

 

3. Technical callback

Just like the bottom reading rebound after the sharp fall of 4q2018 at the beginning of the year, the xylene market experienced a sharp rise from the first ten days of September to the first ten days of October. Under the negative balance of market supply and demand scissors, it started the trend of spit back adjustment.

 

3、 Industrial chain:

 

Upstream: crude oil

 

Downstream: px-pta

 

Four. Future prospects

 

Looking forward to 2020, xylene analysts of business and chemical branch think that it is advisable to focus on the international crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction, the demand of downstream px-pta, port inventory fluctuation and market turnover. Overall, it is expected that xylene market will continue to fluctuate in the band, and the key is to grasp the time and opportunity.

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1、 Trend analysis

 

As shown in the figure above, the domestic copper market in 2019 shows a trend of first rising, then falling, then surging. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of copper rose slightly in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the price of copper rose by 48160 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, it rose by 48830 yuan / ton, or 1.39%. Looking at the trend of copper in the whole year, copper has been in a slight fluctuating and tepid trend. The highest price of the whole year is 50213 yuan / ton on March 21, and the lowest price is 45888.33 yuan / ton on July 10, with an earthquake amplitude of 9.4%, less than 10%. The overall price fluctuation is relatively small.

 

As shown in the figure above, according to the current copper comparison chart of the business agency, the current copper trend in 2019 is basically the same. Most of the time, the spot price is higher than the main contract price, indicating that everyone is not so optimistic about the copper price throughout the year. Except for the large gap between the current price in March, the difference between the spot price and the futures price is not much. With the rise of copper price at the end of the year, the main contract price is higher than the spot price, and the main basis is in a negative value, which is good for buying hedging.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The copper trend in 2019 can be divided into four stages as a whole:

 

In the first stage (from January to March), the price of copper rose from 48160 yuan / ton in January to 50213 yuan / ton on March 21. On the one hand, the supply of copper was frequently disturbed. For example, the export license of copper concentrate in Indonesia Freeport expired, the production of cathode copper in Europe and Asia was expected to be reduced by 55000 tons. The smelters affiliated to Chuquicamata and Salvador mines in Chile will extend the maintenance time On the other hand, after the Spring Festival, the main copper rod enterprises have resumed production in succession; the operating rate of copper tube enterprises has increased steadily, the order volume has started to rise, the overall demand for copper has increased, and the price of copper has risen.

 

In the second stage (March July decline), due to the global economy, European and American data are weak, the ISM data of the United States in April is not as expected, the PMI of Germany continues to be depressed, the trade war affects, and copper consumption turns from the peak season to the off-season. Although copper supply is often disturbed, copper prices are still depressed.

 

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In the third stage (narrow range consolidation from July to November), there is no obvious change in the fundamentals of the copper market at this stage. The supply of mine copper and scrap copper is in short supply, but the demand is weak. Although the consumption peak season is in September, it is not in the peak season.

 

In the fourth stage (December’s rise), at the end of recent years, China US trade negotiations are close to reaching the first stage agreement. In November, the domestic copper import data is stable, inventory continues to decrease, the waste copper in the fourth quarter is exhausted and the supply is tight. In addition, after entering the fourth quarter, the sales situation of China’s automobiles and home appliances has improved, and the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased significantly year on year. With the end of the year, the infrastructure investment has made great efforts , copper demand improved, and copper prices rose accordingly.

 

Copper import and export volume in 2009-2019

 

As shown in the figure above, from 2010 to 2013, the net import of copper increased year by year, from 2013 to 2018, the net import of copper decreased gradually, and in 2019, it recovered slightly. According to statistics, from January to October 2019, the copper import volume is 2585400 tons, and the export volume is 273600 tons. In 2019, the annual import volume is estimated to be 3102300 tons, and the annual export volume is 328300 tons.

 

2009-2019 global and Chinese copper production

 

As shown in the figure above, compared with 2018, the global copper production and China’s copper production have increased, and the global copper production has increased even more. Among them, from January to October 2019, the global copper output was 19.49 million tons, and from January to October, China’s copper output was 9.3972 million tons, up 8.1% year on year.

 

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Apparent consumption of copper in 2009-2019

 

According to the above figure, the apparent consumption of copper in China from January to October 2019 is 10.26 million tons, and the apparent consumption of copper in 2019 is lower than that in 2018.

 

Downstream operating rate:

 

Domestic copper terminal consumption is mainly concentrated in power cables, home appliances, automobiles, real estate and other industries. Among them, power cable accounts for nearly 37%, construction accounts for 21%, household appliances (air conditioning and other refrigeration equipment) accounts for 15%, and automobile industry accounts for 8%. As the intermediate transition product from electrolytic copper to the consumer terminal, the operation situation can reflect the downstream consumption situation. Copper material includes copper rod line, copper tube, copper strip, etc.

 

To sum up, the overall net import volume and output in 2019 are higher than that in 2018, but the apparent consumption volume is decreased, and the copper price is difficult to improve. In terms of copper fundamentals, there are frequent interferences from copper mines, and the downstream operating rate is acceptable. However, due to the economic depression, the overall copper price is tepid and tepid, and the annual earthquake amplitude of copper market is less than 10%. In 2020, the global economy is still in a downward cycle, still facing sluggish economic growth, and copper mine interference has never stopped. It is expected that copper prices will continue the trend of 2019 next year, rising in the spring and falling in the depression period, with the price range of 45000-51000 yuan / ton for the rest of the time.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price trend of DOP in 2019 can be divided into three stages: the first stage, the price of DOP in the first half of 2019 dropped sharply, from 8650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 6983 yuan / ton on June 20, with a price drop of 19.27%; the second stage, from late June to the end of September, the price of DOP rose in shock, from 6983 yuan / ton on June 20 to 7920 yuan / ton at the end of September In the third stage, since October, the price has been stable after falling. In October, the DOP price dropped to about 7400 yuan / ton, and in November and December, the DOP price has been stable. Why does DOP market appear in 019? Let’s analyze from raw materials, downstream market and competitive products market.

 

2、 Raw material market analysis

 

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It can be seen from the figure that in the first half of 2019, the prices of raw materials, such as phthalic anhydride and octanol, fell sharply, the prices of raw materials, DOP costs, DOP prices have a large space to fall, and DOP prices follow the decline. Since June, there have been explosions in many domestic chemical plants, the improvement of safety production in the chemical industry park has been strengthened, the enterprise operation rate has been reduced, resulting in a short-term shortage of DOP, and the price of DOP has been adjusted since the end of June; August and September come, the centralized maintenance of the equipment of the phthalic manufacturers and the sudden failure of the equipment of the phthalic manufacturers lead to the shortage of the supply of phthalic acid, resulting in a sharp rise in the price of phthalic acid The price of DOP increased sharply due to the pressure of cost, conduction of cost pressure and rise of DOP price. However, the rise of octanol price in August added another fire to the rise of DOP price, and the price of DOP rose sharply in August and September. In October, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol began to fall, the price of raw materials began to fall, the cost of DOP fell, the price of DOP lost its support, and the price of DOP began to fall, which led to the decline of DOP price in October. Also affected by the cost, the price of DOP could not fall indefinitely, and the price of DOP fluctuated and remained stable in November and December.

 

3、 Downstream market analysis

 

Plasticizer DOP is mainly used in the field of PVC plastic products. The change of PVC market has a great influence on DOP. It can be seen from the above figure that in 2019, the domestic plastic social inventory remained at a high level in the first half of the year, with slow inventory removal, fluctuating PVC prices and volatile changes, and the overall positive pulling effect on DOP was limited.

 

4、 Competitive analysis

 

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Plasticizers can be divided into o-benzene, p-benzene, metabenzene, epoxy, citric acid ester, etc. DOP and DOTP, DBP, DCP, DiBP, DINP are competing products. The decline of competitive product price has a great impact on DOP. In the first half of 2019, DOP price dropped sharply, which is largely due to the decline of competitive product price, which has dragged down DOP price. As a general plasticizer of DOP, DCP can replace DOP, and the price of DCP is lower than DOP, which is a big challenge to DOP. In general, there are many competitive products in the plasticizer Market, with excess capacity. However, the downstream market of plasticizer in 2019 is weak, and the price rise and fall of plasticizer are limited. The price rise and fall are mainly affected by the raw material market. At the same time, the competition among competitive products leads to limited power of plasticizer rise.

 

5、 Future forecast

 

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, believes that the overall decline of DOP market in 2019, although the short-term price rise is affected by the rising cost, but the overall decline trend is difficult to change. The main reason is the weak downstream demand, affected by the commencement of the real estate market, PVC market is poor. With the recovery of the real estate market in 2020, the PVC market may improve, which is good for the plasticizer Market. In 2019, the price of plasticizer raw materials fell sharply, and the future market fell less. The future market DOP cost fell in a limited space. The plasticizer DOP was limited by the cost, and the future market price fell in a limited space. It is expected that in 2020, the market of plasticizer DOP will improve, and the price or shock will rise.

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1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) continued to maintain stability in the middle of December, with a fluctuation of no more than 0.5%. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of ten days (December 11) is 6738 yuan / ton, and the average price of enterprises at the end of ten days (December 20) is 6718 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.31% in ten days. Ten day high price appeared on December 14, which was 6745 yuan / ton, and ten day amplitude was 0.41%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

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Product: at the beginning of December, influenced by the international crude oil market “Black Friday”, the price began to decline. The price has fallen by about 400 yuan / ton this month. After that, the price has remained stable. Today, the price of individual enterprises has declined slightly. At present, the market turnover is about 6630-7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6670-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the market is still relatively stable and the supply and demand are relatively balanced.

 

Industry chain: in the upstream, the earlier OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement was delayed and strengthened. After the rise of international crude oil, it began to rise steadily and continuously, but the range was small, with little impact on propylene.

 

In the near future, PP declined slightly, with a 10 day drop of 3.85%. There is no centralized purchase for downstream factories. The confidence of the operators is insufficient, the quotation keeps falling, and the operation is cautious. It is expected that the PP market will continue to be adjusted at a low level in the near future. The new 300000 t / a polypropylene plant of a large powder plant will be shut down unexpectedly, which has a certain negative impact on propylene.

 

In the near future, acrylic acid slightly increased, with a ten day increase of 0.41%. Its spot supply is limited, but the downstream market demand is weak, and the negotiation is relatively stagnant. It is expected that the market will maintain stable operation in the short term, with limited impact on propylene.

 

In recent days, due to the positive shipping mentality of propylene oxide manufacturers, the downstream demand is relatively light, favorable support is insufficient, and the price is significantly reduced, with a ten day drop of 5.96%. It is expected that the future market will still be weak operation, which has a negative impact on propylene.

 

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Due to the tight supply, the price of epichlorohydrin has been rising continuously since the middle of the month, up 4.13% in three days. Although high price raw materials inevitably cause conflicts among downstream users, manufacturers are willing to support the market, and it is hard to find low price. It is expected that epichlorohydrin will increase slightly in the short term, which will have a positive impact on propylene.

 

Recently, the main trend of domestic small consolidation of n-butanol continued to be stable, with a ten day decline of 1.59% and a ten day amplitude of 2.40%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

 

The price of octanol is mainly low consolidation, with a ten day increase of 0.24%, which has little impact on propylene.

 

Phenol Market recovered to its original position after a slight rise in the middle of December, with a ten day amplitude of 0.85%. The market was weak and had little impact on propylene.

 

Acetone market was down in mid December, down as much as 7.08% in ten days. It is expected that the market may still have a downward trend, which has a significant negative impact on propylene.

 

Isopropanol market was affected by acetone, and the price fell all the way, with a 10 day drop of 6.84%, which also had a negative impact on propylene market.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been generally stable in recent days. The OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement was postponed and strengthened. The international crude oil was consolidated at a high level, but the increase was limited at the later stage, the downstream support was insufficient, and some products were slightly affected by negative effects. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of propylene will fluctuate steadily in recent days.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the average ex factory price of domestic grade-I chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5066 yuan / ton on December 9, and the average ex factory price of domestic grade-I chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5133 yuan / ton on December 18, with a price increase of 1.32%. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on December 18 is 76.43, unchanged from yesterday, 30.16% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 19.70% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: low level of chlorinated paraffin at present. The ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5200 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

 

Crude oil: WTI’s January 2020 futures fell $0.01/barrel on Wednesday (December 18), while Brent’s February 2020 futures rose $0.07/barrel at $66.17. China’s SC crude oil futures rose 2.6 yuan to 474.8 yuan / barrel in 2002.

 

Industry chain: the market price of raw material liquid wax is stable, the current trend is temporarily stable, the manufacturer is stable in shipping, and the market fluctuation is not big. Recently, the market price of liquid chlorine has been raised, and the market in some regions has been significantly raised. Due to the increase of cost and the pressure of downstream enterprises, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers began to adjust flexibly.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association, the price of raw materials of chlorinated paraffin in China is rising, and the cost pressure of manufacturers is increasing. The downstream demand is poor, and the overall operating rate is low. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will be in the finishing stage in the later stage, and the manufacturers will flexibly adjust the small fluctuation within the range.

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I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 17, the domestic market price of n-propanol remained stable. At present, the main quotation of domestic n-propanol is around 9100-11400 yuan / ton, and the price is basically unchanged compared with that at the beginning of the month.

 

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II. Market analysis

 

Products: since December, the domestic n-propanol market has been in stable operation as a whole. The market is weak and the demand is general. There are more long-term contract users for self use or co supply. At present, there are fewer production enterprises in China’s n-propanol industry, and there are two kinds of production processes. Nanjing Noor Chemical Co., Ltd. and Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. adopt the ethylene process and Changchun Chemical Co., Ltd Jin) Co., Ltd. adopts the by-product method of isopropanol (2-propanol). As of December 17, the operating rate of some manufacturers in Nanjing is normal, the production unit of n-propanol in Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is in normal operation, and the ex factory quotation of n-propanol is stable at 9100 yuan / ton (tax included); the quotation of local dealers is also not very volatile, and the domestic n-propanol sold by Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported to the outside world The price is 10500 yuan / ton (including tax barrels); the price of domestic n-propanol sold by Ningbo Haorui Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. is 10600 yuan / ton (including tax barrels).

 

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Industry chain: on December 16, the market of propylene oxide, the upstream product of n-propanol, fell. Epichlorohydrin manufacturers have resumed load one after another, the supply has increased, the downstream demand is light, and they are more cautious to wait and see. The manufacturers are mainly active in shipment, and the focus of epichlorohydrin negotiation has been lowered. On the 16th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 10300 yuan / ton, and that in East China mainstream market was 10600 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10050 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 10000 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to the prediction of business agency: the demand of n-propanol market in China has not changed greatly, so the fluctuation of upstream and downstream industries is not big, and it is expected that the n-propanol market will remain stable in the short term.

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I. price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market of propylene oxide fell as of December 16, with an average price of 10366.67 yuan / ton, down 2.51% compared with last Friday (13th), and the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 10200-10600 yuan / ton on December 16.

 

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II. Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: propylene oxide market fell on the 16th. Epichlorohydrin manufacturers have resumed load one after another, the supply has increased, the downstream demand is light, and they are more cautious to wait and see. The manufacturers are mainly active in shipment, and the focus of epichlorohydrin negotiation has been lowered. On the 16th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 10300 yuan / ton, and that in East China mainstream market was 10600 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10050 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 10000 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

 

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Industrial chain: the market of propylene in Shandong region in the upper reaches of the river was generally stable on March 16, and the current mainstream market price is 6670-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of downstream enterprises is low, the purchasing mentality is slightly improved, the downward trend of propylene price begins to stop, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to be stable in the near future. The price of raw material epichlorohydrin fell, the cost side support of downstream polyether weakened, the quotation of some manufacturers decreased, and the focus of market negotiation fell.

 

3. Future forecast:

 

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the price of raw material propylene has stabilized after the recent decline, the manufacturers have a positive shipping mentality, and the downstream demand is relatively light, which is good for the lack of support. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be mainly weak in the short term.

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