According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 27, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4766 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4800 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69%.

According to the monitoring chart of the Business Society data, from April to now (4.1 to 4.27), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has experienced a slight decline amidst fluctuations. In the early stages, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market overall showed a stable and upward trend. At the beginning of this month, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was steadily consolidated and operated. With the shutdown and maintenance of some dimethyl carbonate devices on the site, the spot circulation on the site became tight, and under the support of tight supply, on the 10th, some dimethyl carbonate plants and suppliers slightly increased the price of carbonate by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the overall focus of the dimethyl carbonate market rose in a narrow range. As of April 15, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan/ton, The first ten days saw a 2.08% increase.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the supply and demand side of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is relatively calm, and the downstream pre holiday stocking is basically coming to an end. The current demand is mainly for orders that are just in demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. The business company’s dimethyl carbonate data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mostly remain stable, organized, and operated. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in the supply and demand side news.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 26, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1106 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2023 (the reference price of phosphate ore was 1090 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since April (4.1-4.26), the overall domestic phosphorus ore market has been weak and moving downwards. In early April, due to the downward trend of the yellow phosphorus market in the downstream of the industrial chain, downstream operations began at a reduced rate. The demand for phosphate ore in some regions of China became loose, and the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market was strong. Some mining companies lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by around 10-30 yuan/ton. Then, in the middle of April, the overall phosphorus ore market was in a weak and stable consolidation operation. Near the end of the month, some mining enterprises in Sichuan Province adjusted the phosphorus ore price downward by about 10-20 yuan/ton. As of April 26, the domestic 30% grade phosphorus ore market price reference was close to 1000-1150 yuan/ton, and the 28% grade phosphorus ore price reference was near 960-990 yuan/ton. The reference price for 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1080-1220 yuan/ton. There are also differences between the specific price and factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is average, and some mining companies have some concerns about the future market. The wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The phosphate ore data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly weak and organized, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of April 21, 2023, the reference price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 7766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.66 yuan/ton or 1.48% compared to the price on April 14, 2023 (reference price of diethylene glycol is 7883.33 yuan/ton).

From the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.15-4.21), the diethylene glycol market experienced high volatility and broad adjustment. During the week, the diethylene glycol market saw an increase in wait-and-see sentiment and a temporary pullback in international crude oil prices. However, as the May Day holiday approached, downstream restocking began, and the number of port shipments once again rose to a high level. On April 20th, the daily shipment volume reached 1960 tons. As of April 20th, the main port inventory fell to the level of 19100 tons. Under the stimulation of high shipments, the market center of gravity rose again. By the end of this week (April 21), the domestic diethylene glycol market price was around 7700-7800 yuan/ton.

At present, as the May Day holiday approaches, there is a significant rebound in port shipments, mainly due to downstream pre holiday restocking demand. However, by the end of April, it is expected that the number of imported ships arriving at the port will be limited. From the current shipment volume, it is expected that the main port inventory will continue to decline in the future, combined with domestic device maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a significant reduction in market supply. Business Society’s diethylene glycol analysts believe that in the short term, the support of diethylene glycol from the supply side will still be strong. At the same time, as downstream restocking activities continue, the overall market atmosphere will strengthen. With multiple positive support, the market may operate stronger. Specifically, it is necessary to pay more attention to the international crude oil trend and changes in market mentality.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of April 24th, the average price of domestic transparent grade premium PMMA was 14775.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream procurement was mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, while prices have remained stable compared to the same period last week. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14800 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up profits and taken orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On April 23, the rubber and plastic index stood at 679 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 28.60% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, PMMA will maintain stable operation and the range of price fluctuations is limited.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market rose first and then fell this week (4.14-4.21). On April 14th, the average market price was 197160 yuan/ton, and on April 21st, the average market price was 213510 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8.29%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been fluctuating frequently recently, and the overall trend is weak. This week, tin prices have risen due to the news of the planned production halt in Wa State.

In terms of the futures market, on April 15, the Central economic planning Commission of the Wa State of Myanmar issued the Notice on Suspending All Mineral Resources Mining, which pointed out that in order to protect the Wa mineral resources, all mineral resources mining and excavation would be suspended until the conditions for mature mining were not met. After August 1, 2023, all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in the mine will cease. Myanmar is the first source country for China’s tin ore imports. According to customs data, in 2022, China imported 187300 tons of tin ore from Myanmar, accounting for approximately 77% of China’s total imports. The tin concentrate production in the Wa region accounts for about 50% of the total production in Myanmar. If tin mines in the Myanmar region stop production after August 1st, it will have a significant impact on domestic tin supply. Under the influence of this news, domestic Shanghai tin rose by the limit on the day of the 17th and another 6.93% on the night of the 17th.

On the supply side: Currently, there is not much change in the overall supply and demand in China, and the attitude of smelters towards high prices still exists. The overall domestic production has remained at a relatively stable level of around 60%. However, based on the import situation of tin concentrate from January to February, the import volume has decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, and the supply at the mining end is still tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and shows little signs of recovery in the short term. Currently, the main application field of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, soldering tin accounts for about 44% of the market share, while tin plates account for about 16% of the market share. Therefore, the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of integrated circuits from January to February 2023 was 44.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. According to Business News, due to the poor performance of electronic orders in the near future, the operating rate of solder companies has remained stable in the near future, and it is expected that there will be no significant changes in the future. In terms of inventory, LME inventory is currently at a low level, while domestic inventory is still relatively high. However, there have been slight signs of destocking since last week, and there has been some improvement in tin prices since the end of last week. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and in the short term, the market will significantly increase due to the news of the planned production halt in Wa State. However, the impact of this news on subsequent fundamentals is still unclear. In the short term, the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices remains limited, and in the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On April 22, the base metal index stood at 1245 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 93.93% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.

Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the trend of soda ash continued to decline in April. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2760 yuan/ton. On April 19th, the average market price was around 2680 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.9%. The price of soda ash is in a weak trend.

Region/ Price/ Up and down (compared to the beginning of the month)

North China/ 2700-2800/. -100

East China/ 2500-2750/. -50

Huazhong/ 2500-2600/. -50

From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of soda ash has decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton in various regions this month, maintaining a weak and weak trend.

From the supply side perspective, the operating rate of soda ash remains relatively stable. Data shows that the overall operating rate of soda ash is around 90%, and there are currently no new maintenance plans in the near future.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity monitoring system of the Business Society, glass prices have risen this month, with an average market price of 19.73 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the month and 21.87 yuan/square meter on April 19th, with a price increase of 10.85%. The price of glass has slightly increased, but for light soda ash, it is still mainly purchased on demand, and the overall demand has not changed much.

Analysts from Business Society believe that according to the analysis system of Business Society, the price of domestic soda ash is weak, and the overall construction remains stable. The demand for downstream glass is average, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The supply and demand sides are still in a game, and it is expected that the weak and consolidation operation of soda ash prices will be the main trend in the later stage, with a specific look at downstream market demand.

In the second half of April, the domestic ammonia market began a cliff like decline, with prices in major production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, and Lianghu all falling below a thousand yuan. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 18th, the monthly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region exceeded 20%. The mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is as low as the range of 3000-3200 yuan/ton.

Amidst the oversupply and the double silence of agricultural and industrial demand, the ammonia market has continuously hit new lows and has now fallen to a new low since 2021.

From a supply perspective, the domestic supply performance is abundant, with the release of ammonia in the main production areas of China approaching a high level of 200000 tons last week. The accumulated inventory of manufacturers has guided them to continuously reduce their factory prices. Since the beginning of this week, the prices quoted by manufacturers have not stopped falling. On the 18th, a large Shandong factory has also lowered its daily price by 300 yuan/ton. Especially, the recent arrival of imported goods in Hong Kong has had a significant impact on the already oversupplied domestic market, and has even sparked market panic. Although some manufacturers have been undergoing maintenance since the middle of the year, the supply pressure remains prominent.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the cost side remains bearish. The price of liquefied natural gas fell by 2.41% in April. The market is hovering at a low level, and the decline in natural gas continues to bring pressure to the ammonia prices of Southwest gas head ammonia companies. Due to the continued weakness of the coal market, according to monitoring by Business Society, thermal coal has fallen by nearly 10% since April. Due to the fact that coal fired ammonia companies still have profit margins, they are more motivated to lower prices and ship out in the face of sluggish demand and reduced orders. Overall, the cost side is bearish for the ammonia market.

On the demand side, the market has formed a situation where agricultural demand and industrial demand are both weak. On the one hand, agricultural demand has weakened, and the first half of April is during the agricultural procurement window period. The traditional off-season has led to a decrease in downstream purchase orders. The shipment volume of compound fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers has plummeted, with a particularly significant drop in ammonium chloride. As of now, it has dropped by 19.21% in April. Furthermore, industrial demand has also shown weakness, with downstream factories purchasing on demand and reducing production schedules. In addition, according to industry insiders, the external demand for liquid ammonia is also average, with foreign devices gradually recovering and liquid ammonia exports facing obstacles. The surge in import volume and the decrease in export orders have further intensified the supply-demand contradiction.

Future Market Forecast:

Analysts from Business Society believe that on the cost side, due to the sluggish coal and natural gas market, coal and gas leading ammonia companies still face negative impacts from costs in the short term. On the supply side, as ammonia prices continue to decline, manufacturers’ production schedules have started to decrease since the middle of the year. However, some ammonia companies such as Hubei Jinniu are facing resumption of production, and Juhua also has plans to increase its burden. So the pressure on the supply side in the short term cannot be underestimated. On the demand side, it is unlikely that there will be any improvement in industrial and agricultural demand in the near future. Overall, it is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in the ammonia market, but the decline will be narrowed by the impact of reduced emissions.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price was temporarily stable this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market this week is 7700.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices decreased by 47.26% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.09, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.98% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 29.78% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have temporarily stabilized their quotations this week and have low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7156.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7286.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.82%. Weekend prices have decreased by 13.68% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw material market rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was positively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol is 10600.00 yuan/ton. The high consolidation of the new pentanediol market and average downstream demand have a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late April may be mainly fluctuating and rising. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has stabilized at a high level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8335 yuan/ton on April 10th, and the average price on April 14th was 8318 yuan/ton. During this period, the decline was 0.21%, an increase of 0.52% compared to April 1st.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on April 10th was 8837 yuan/ton, and the average price on April 14th was 8820 yuan/ton. During this period, the decline was 0.20%, a decrease of 0.76% compared to the quotation on April 1st.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) on April 10th was 8800 yuan/ton, and the average price on April 14th was 8866 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.76%, an increase of 2.7% compared to April 1st.

This week, polyethylene saw a narrow adjustment, with prices for LLDPE and LDPE falling in a narrow range, while prices for HDPE wire drawing grades rose. On the cost side, crude oil remains high and volatile, providing some support to the polyethylene market. On the supply side, there has been an increase in temporary maintenance devices, but market supply pressure is still present, with a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Downstream demand, the overall demand for agricultural film is average, with primary demand for procurement. Merchants sell at a discount to facilitate transactions.

The pressure on polyethylene supply is still on, and there will be enterprise installations starting next week; Downstream demand is mainly in demand, new orders are added, and follow-up is slow. Polyethylene analysts from Business Society predict that polyethylene may be adjusted in a narrow range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, there were a total of 4 products that rose and 3 products that fell on the fluorine chemical price list in March 2023. The main commodities on the rise include R22, R134a, fluorite, and hydrofluoric acid; The main commodities falling are: chloroform, aluminum fluoride, and cryolite.

The fluctuation range of various fluorine chemical products in March is as follows:

Fluorite: As a raw material in the fluorine chemical industry, the price trend of fluorite increased in March, resulting in a low operating rate on the domestic supply side and tight spot supply of fluorite. On the one hand, due to the impact of mining accidents in the southern Jiangxi region, the periodic supply of parking has declined. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, resulting in a serious shortage of fluorite mines and a shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, which limits the operation of fluorite flotation devices. On the other hand, the slow resumption of the northern fluorite factories in Inner Mongolia and other regions has made it difficult to find the spot fluorite on the market. Affected by the tight supply, the fluorite market price rose in March. The price trend of fluorite is as follows:

Hydrofluoric acid: In March, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid slightly increased. At the end of the month, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed by various regions in China was 9800-10200 yuan/ton. The main reason for the price increase of hydrofluoric acid was supported by the increase in raw material prices. On the one hand, the raw material fluorite is tight and the price is constantly rising. On the other hand, the sales of hydrofluoric acid are not smooth, and under the dual pressure, hydrofluoric acid enterprises are mostly at a loss. With the rise in the price of raw material fluorite, which provides strong cost support for the hydrofluoric acid market, and the increase in downstream refrigerant purchase orders at the end of the month, the price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market rose.

Refrigerant: The market trend of downstream refrigerant products at the terminal is increasing. Before the peak season of refrigerant demand, enterprises have a strong stocking sentiment, and procurement has increased, driving the market up. In March, the price trend of refrigerant R22 increased, with normal market supply and inventory within a reasonable range. The wait-and-see sentiment still persists, and the market quotation for R22 is in the range of 20000-22000 yuan/ton. The domestic price of R134a has slightly increased, and the operating rate of R134a is relatively low. In March, the price of trichloroethylene rose, but the price has slightly increased due to the support of raw materials. Currently, the market price of R134a is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. In order to maintain market share, production enterprises maintain a low operating rate, and the transaction atmosphere is still clear. The intention to continue rising in the later period has weakened, and overall, the trend of refrigerant market has increased.

Aluminium fluoride: In March, the price trend of aluminium fluoride declined. At the end of the month, the price was 9800 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 7.33% in March. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand of aluminium fluoride, serious overcapacity, and poor downstream demand led to a decline in the price of aluminium fluoride market. Recently, the construction of aluminum fluoride enterprises has gradually resumed, the supply of aluminum fluoride has increased, and downstream electrolytic aluminum prices have fluctuated and consolidated. The demand for aluminum fluoride remains weak, and the trend of aluminum fluoride has declined.

Cryolite: In March, the domestic market for cryolite slightly declined, and the prices of cryolite enterprises were generally lowered. Some enterprises kept their prices stable based on their own shipment situation, resulting in lower fuel coal prices and lower cryolite costs. Terminal downstream destocking was weak, and the demand for cryolite was weak. In order to stimulate shipment, cryolite prices were lowered.

Trichloromethane: The market for trichloromethane significantly declined in March, with the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong at the end of the month at 2675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.41% in March. The price of raw material methanol has significantly decreased, and the cost of trichloromethane has significantly decreased; At the beginning of the month, the supply pressure on the trichloromethane market was relatively low, coupled with the rise in downstream refrigerant peak season R22 prices, which timely replenished the inventory of trichloromethane, driving the price of trichloromethane up slightly; In the second half of the month, with the early shutdown, restart of the load reduction device, or lifting of the load to normal operation, the pressure on the supply side of trichloromethane increases. In addition, the centralized replenishment of downstream warehouses has come to an end, and transactions in the later stage are light, resulting in a significant decline in the price of trichloromethane.

Prediction: The recent trend of raw materials in the fluorine chemical industry has increased, and the supply of fluorite ore is unlikely to improve in April. In addition, some fluorite enterprises have limited sales, and the price trend of fluorite remains strong. The peak season of the refrigerant industry has arrived, and procurement has increased. Currently, low price orders have gradually risen, indicating a clear trend of optimism in the market. Overall, positive factors support it significantly. It is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical raw materials will continue to be mainly upward in April.