According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market fell in July, and the spot price of wire drawing brand fell. As of July 28, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8225 yuan / ton, up or down -4.45% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to decline in July, with a monthly decline of 5.81%. In the middle of the year, there was a wave of price support in the market, but the feedback from the downstream was poor, and the return of gains went down further. The market supply is sufficient, the downstream gas buying is insufficient, the cost support is weak, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and only relying on the cost to support the bottom, the profitability of the overall propylene industry chain is poor, and the market price is under pressure. Long term bearish.

Propylene prices fell as a whole, crude oil fluctuated sharply under the influence of macro inflation such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and PP cost side support weakened in July. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises fell after rising this month. Enterprises independently reduced the negative diversion supply pressure, and the operation was biased towards digesting inventory. This month’s inventory was at a high level over the years. In terms of demand, the downstream factories of wire drawing materials purchase and follow-up are biased towards just need to maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy on bargain hunting and have a strong resistance to high price sources. Traders’ shipments gradually yield profits, follow the market, the effect appears at the end of the month, and the spot price gradually stops falling and stabilizes. The operating rate of terminal enterprises decreased in a narrow range, and it is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials may rebound in a narrow range in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 28, the spot price of domestic fiber PP gradually fell. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8150 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of -5.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -4.31% year-on-year. In July, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, decreased, and the demand and operation of end enterprises continued on the whole. Large enterprises just needed to take goods to maintain production, and the load of small and medium-sized enterprises decreased or even stopped production. The consumption of products maintains the off-season mode, and the replenishment operation tends to maintain production. The demand for medical fiber products has also cooled, and the rigid support is weakened. The supply side is abundant. At the end of the month, the buyer camp bought on bargain hunting, and trading recovered. It is expected that the fiber material may rebound in a narrow range with the wire drawing material in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell in July. As of July 28, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9366.67 yuan / ton, up or down -2.77% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has increased, and the epidemic prevention pressure continues to fluctuate. However, medical meltblown cloth materials have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand has decreased, which does not significantly support the spot price. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high, which together with the shipping resistance puts pressure on the spot price. At the end of the month, the market’s acceptance of the reduced price increased, and the price volatility stabilized. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may pick up in a narrow range along with other PP varieties.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell in July, the raw material propylene market fell, the decline of international crude oil intensified, and the cost side support of PP weakened. The demand of terminal enterprises expands slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer is subject to the market. At the end of the month, the price position hit the bottom and rebounded. It is expected that the recent PP market will be dominated by fundamentals and pick up in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6250 yuan / ton on July 1, and 5883 yuan / ton on July 27. The price of chlorinated paraffin fell by 5.87% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin fell this month. In the first ten days of July, the price of chlorinated paraffin was stable. The domestic market of chlorinated paraffin is weak, the operating rate of enterprises rises, and the supply of chlorinated paraffin increases. The price trend of raw materials fell, and cost support weakened. The downstream demand is sluggish, mainly low-cost procurement, and the on-site transaction is poor. In mid July, the price of chlorinated paraffin began to fall to the end of the month. Due to the continuous decline of raw material prices, the cost support is insufficient. The market demand for chlorinated paraffin is poor, the transaction is weak, and the industry is mainly on the sidelines. Dominated by negative factors, chlorinated paraffin is mainly downward. As of July 27, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province was about 5800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province was about 6050-6200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell violently this month, and the market followed the change of crude oil price. In the first half of July, the price of liquid wax continued to decline, and the market trading was poor. In the second half of July, liquid wax rebounded slightly and fell again. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of crude oil. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell first and then rose this month. In the middle and early days of July, the price of liquid chlorine fell broadly, the market on the floor was poor, the turnover was low, and some liquid chlorine enterprises reduced their load. In late July, the price of liquid chlorine rebounded and rose, and the market supply decreased, making the market better.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts at business news agency believe that due to the weak market trend of chlorinated paraffin raw materials this month, the cost support is weak. In the case of downstream buying up but not buying down, the purchase volume decreases. Although the market of raw liquid chlorine rebounded at the end of the month, the market demand for chlorinated paraffin was weak. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.

Last week (July 18-24), the market was dominated by bad news, the price of nylon filament continued to fall, the supply of goods in the market was sufficient, the cost side support was weak, the downstream demand continued to be weak, customers just needed to buy, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was thickened, and the trading atmosphere was not prosperous.

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86d/24f)

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of nylon filament continued to decline last week (July 18-24). As of July 24, the quotation of domestic nylon POY (superior product; 86d/24f) was 17075 yuan / ton, a weekly decrease of 275 yuan / ton, a weekly decrease of 1.59%. Nylon DTY (superior product; 70d/24f) quoted 19700 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton, down 0.40% week on week. Nylon FDY (premium product: 40d/12f) was quoted at 20100 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 175 yuan / ton and a weekly decrease of 0.85%.

quotations analysis

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industrial chain

Cost side: last week (July 18-24), the average market price of raw material cyclohexanone fell from 10825 yuan / ton to 10240 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.40% during the week. The market of raw material caprolactam is poor, and the trend continues to decline. On July 18, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13400 yuan / ton, and on July 25, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12833 yuan / ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 4.23% during the week, with sufficient on-site supply and less trading volume. Most transactions are at low prices. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to decline in the short term.

Supply and demand: the demand follow-up in the downstream terminal area is also an important factor, but at present, the terminal demand has not improved. The terminal customers just need to follow up, and the downstream weaving factories are not enthusiastic about purchasing. Some customers are more oriented to production by sales, and in the short term, they mainly consume raw material inventory; The on-site supply of goods remains sufficient. Although some manufacturers have production reduction expectations, the on-site supply of goods remains sufficient.

Aftermarket forecast

Recently, the nylon filament market has been dominated by bad news, the supporting role of the cost side is weak, the supply of goods is sufficient, the demand side continues to be weak, there is no too much positive feedback at the end, and the market is dominated by bad news. Business analysts expect that the nylon filament market will continue to be weak in the later period, and the price will continue to fluctuate and decline in the short term.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, and the domestic p-xylene price is 9550 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, the domestic p-xylene supply is general, and the overseas units are operating normally, so the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. Recently, the trend of international oil prices has declined, and the external price of PX has declined slightly. On the 22nd, the closing prices in Asia were $1060-1062 / ton FOB South Korea and $1078-1080 / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current short-term crude oil price has fallen, In addition, the PX settlement price of Sinopec fell sharply in July, and the downstream PTA and textile industry were weak. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene may fall in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 22, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8933 yuan / ton, which was 2933 yuan / ton lower than the price on July 1, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol was 11866 yuan / ton), a decrease of 24.72%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that since July (7.1-7.22), the domestic propylene glycol market price has been running downward, and the market situation can be described as “falling repeatedly”. Since the beginning of July, the downstream demand of propylene glycol has been weak, new orders in the market are limited, and the supply and demand transmission is slow. The propylene glycol factory makes profits to ship, and constantly adjusts the ex factory price of propylene glycol downward. As of July 15, the low-end price of propylene glycol in the market has fallen below 10000 yuan, with a reference of around 9600 yuan / ton. However, the market price fell continuously, the downstream demand boost performance was still average, and the wait-and-see mood was heavy. In the late July stage, the market focus of propylene glycol continued to fall deeply. As of July 22, the domestic propylene glycol ex factory price was around 8500-9300 yuan / ton, with a decline of more than 24% in the month. At present, the atmosphere in the venue is poor, and the wait-and-see mood still exists.

The upstream propylene oxide market fell this week (7.18-7.21). Recently, the raw material propylene market has been reorganized and operated, and the cost support is limited. At the beginning of the week, the supply side devices are stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market wait-and-see is weak. With the price falling, the factory shipment has improved slightly, but it is still general, some devices have decreased, the downstream procurement mentality is still cautious, and the market game is weak. On the 21st, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong fell to about 8400-8500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 21, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9733.33 yuan / ton, down 4.26% from Monday’s price.

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is still weak, and the support given by the demand side is general. The propylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 6975 yuan / ton last Thursday and 6775 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 2.87% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison chart of price trend of acetone and isopropanol

The domestic isopropanol market price fell this week. At present, isopropanol manufacturers mainly export orders. At present, the domestic downstream demand for isopropanol is light, the market trading atmosphere is general, the downstream orders are cautious, and the enthusiasm to buy is limited. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 6500-6900 yuan / ton; Most of Jiangsu isopropanols are quoted at about 6700-6900 yuan / ton. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on July 19, while the European isopropanol market closed down.

In terms of raw acetone, the acetone market fell first and then rose this week. The average price of domestic acetone was 4920 yuan / ton last Thursday and 4800 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 2.44% during the week. At the beginning of the week, an unexpected shutdown of a domestic factory stimulated the market to rise. In addition, the higher cost side drove the positive offer of shippers. On the 20th, North China Petrochemical and Lihua yiweiyuan raised their listing prices, further supporting the market to rise. However, terminal inquiries increased, and there were few actual purchases. Some traders made profits and actively shipped goods. In fact, the market was high, but low, but the market as a whole was up. Raw materials rose, pushing up the atmosphere on the floor, but the demand side did not improve in a large area. The short-term East China acetone market negotiation was 4800-5000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw propylene, the market price of propylene rose. The average price of domestic propylene was 7634.6 yuan / ton last Thursday and 7414.6 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 2.88% during the week. The downstream market demand is mainly rigid demand, the market is more wait-and-see, and enterprises are more cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the market supply will be loose and the price bottom will fluctuate in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of the business club believes that the domestic isopropanol market demand is relatively light at present. Acetone market fell first and then rose, the market rebounded, and the cost support improved slightly. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business community, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to be weak this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 3200.00 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 3100.00 yuan / ton, down 3.12% during the week.

The domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite market performed generally this week. In order to stimulate some enterprises to reduce the factory price of sodium pyrosulfite slightly, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to operate weakly this week. The price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 2900-3300 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated around 3000 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only, and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

In the first half of July, the price of domestic soda ash fell slightly by 1.03%, the price of sulfur fell sharply by 50.69%, and the price of raw materials fell sharply, which will further suppress the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price in the future.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the cost continues to be weak, and the wait-and-see attitude of the downstream increases. In the short term, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will continue to operate under overall pressure.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 19, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 11250.00 yuan / ton, and the DMF price rose slightly, slightly higher than that at the beginning of the week. It is expected that the DMF market will be stable in the short term.

As of July 19, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 11000-12000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream is mainly rigid, and the logistics is smooth.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market was in a downturn, and the decline slowed down. The receiving price in northern Shandong, the main end market, is down synchronously, and the inventory of raw materials in local downstream factories is high, causing serious vehicle crushing.

Chemical commodity index: on July 18, the chemical index was 1040 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 25.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 73.91% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that in the short term, the DMF market will mainly operate smoothly, and the price is about 11000 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners continued to decline this week. On July 17, the average market price in Shandong was 4277.50 yuan / ton, down 4.16% from 4463.25 yuan / ton on July 11.

On July 17, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 332.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.60% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 397.38% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries continued to fall, the refinery shipment was under pressure, the inventory was high, the transaction was light, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fell, and the market was mainly affected by the strengthening of the US dollar. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased the risk of economic recession; Superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, the possible blockade measures will suppress demand.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices fell slightly this week; The market price of metallic silicon is rising; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum continued to decline, and as of July 17, the price was 17436.67 yuan / ton.

Analysts of petroleum coke of business agency believe that: international crude oil fell this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke is limited; The inventory of local refining enterprises is high, the shipment of petroleum coke is under pressure, and the downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.

Ethylene oxide fell during the week, with a general adjustment of 500 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price in the market is 7050 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 7150 yuan / ton.

Upstream, international oil prices fell during the week because investors were concerned about the prospect of a substantial interest rate hike in the United States later this month, which would curb inflation and weaken crude oil demand. The spot valuation of light distillate oil in Asia continued to fall, following the decline of international crude oil futures. The spot valuation of naphtha fell to $79.99/barrel, and the spot price difference rose to +1.99/barrel. Up to now, the outer disc price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is $880 / ton, down $10 / ton from the price of the previous trading day; The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 1030 US dollars / ton, Luxi Chemical ethylene is quoted at 7350 yuan / ton today, and Jinshan Lianmao ethylene is quoted at 7500 yuan / ton today, which is flat compared with the previous trading day. Measured by the current external price, ethylene oxide is close to the cost line. As of the close of July 8, the spot price difference between Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR Japanese naphtha was $112.5 / ton, and the ethylene cracking plant using naphtha as raw material continues to suffer losses.

The fluctuation of ethylene oxide supply side is limited. Due to the drag of demand side, the operating load remains low, and the ethylene glycol market has not improved. At present, the co production unit is mainly EO, which is difficult to adjust the ethylene oxide supply side.

Downstream monomer manufacturers have been waiting for the trend of ethylene oxide for a long time, and the price has been lowered again. The progress of infrastructure construction has been hampered by extreme weather, the performance of cement water reducer is poor, and the market has fallen during the week. Terminal enterprises mainly follow up with rigid needs, and the support of demand side is weak.

Forecast: after digesting the decline, the ethylene market is expected to bottom, and ethylene oxide will fluctuate around the cost line, with limited room for decline.