1、 Price trend

In May 2020, the “V” trend of domestic lead ingot Market, with the average price of 13975 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 144381 at the end of the month. 25 yuan / ton, up 2.91%.

On May 29, the lead commodity index was 87.52, down 0.23 points from yesterday, 34.69% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 17.27% higher than 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

In May, the futures market kept a wide swing trend, hovering between 1600-1700 US dollars, with mixed factors affecting fundamentals, positive and negative factors interwoven, and Lund lead was affected by inventory growth. Shanghai lead 07 contract fell back after hitting the high, and the main shock was between 13600-14500 in the month. As of 29, 14220 yuan / ton, up 5.33% in the month.

The overall trend of domestic spot lead market this month is good, with a monthly increase of about 300 yuan / ton. In the first ten days of this year, the spot lead market was mainly subject to shocks, with little price fluctuation. On December 12, the price of Lund lead was driven up by shocks in China. Later, it was dragged down by the metal market and entered the decline channel. The price of Lund lead fell down, and the price of Lund lead rose back. The domestic low-level supply of used batteries was tight, and the supply of recycled lead was tight, supporting the price of lead Fall and stabilize, and slowly enter the rising channel. In terms of supply, the production of enterprises is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a normal level. In terms of demand, the downstream lead-acid battery entered the traditional off-season in May, with some small and medium-sized enterprises reducing production and slightly reducing the demand for lead. In terms of renewable lead, Yunnan Guizhou and Jiangxi manufacturers started to improve, and waste batteries performed well, with a rise of about 200 yuan / ton this month. On the whole, the market fundamentals in May were mixed, with market shocks dominating.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the nonferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (7.04%). There are five kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products are praseodymium oxide (- 3.28%), antimony (- 2.69%) and titanium concentrate (- 1.69%). This month’s average was up or down 2.6%.

The business club predicted that the favorable policy impact brought by the closing of the two sessions will further affect the metal market. On the 29th, some metal prices rebounded, and the commencement of various industries in China will gradually go on the right track. The overall market environment will still be good in the later stage, and the spot lead market will be affected by the soft demand in the downstream. In the near future, the fundamentals are good and bad. It is expected that the future market will be mainly integrated in the short term, with the overall market The market environment is good, the downstream production is gradually restored, and there is still room for the future market to rise.

Relevant data:

National Bureau of Statistics: in April 2020, China’s lead output was 489000 tons. According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics, China’s lead output in April 2020 was 489000 tons, with a cumulative output of 1683000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.60% and a cumulative decrease of 3.20%.

ILZSG: the global lead market oversupply fell in March: according to the data released by the international lead zinc research group (ILZSG) on May 20, the global lead market oversupplied 14200 tons in March and 16400 tons in February. From January to March this year, there was a total supply surplus of 19000 tons, compared with 13000 tons in the same period last year..

WBMs: from January to March 2020, the supply of lead in the world will be short of 170000 tons: according to the monthly report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on May 20, the supply of lead in the world will be short of 17000 tons from January to March 2020, and the whole year 2019 will be short of 237000 tons. As of the end of March, the total inventory is 30000 tons less than that at the end of 2019. From January to March 2020, the global refined lead output will be 2.9 million tons, a decrease of 4% over the same period of last year. China’s apparent demand is expected to be 1.197 million tons, a decrease of 220000 tons compared with the same period last year, accounting for about 41% of the global total demand. From January to March, the apparent demand of the United States increased by 24000 tons year on year. In March 2020, the global refined lead production is 1030600 tons, and the demand is 1035800 tons.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market of propylene oxide on May 28 was mainly stable, and some enterprises adjusted their quotations. On May 28, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 9266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.36% compared with yesterday and 11.20% compared with May 6. On August 28, Jinan Pratt & Whitney Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 9300 yuan / ton of propylene oxide, and Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 9300 yuan / ton of propylene oxide. The specific transaction price will be discussed in a single way.

On May 28, the market price of propylene in Shandong still fell. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend has been unchanged. The daily upward trend is 50-100 yuan / ton. On 22, it finally began to stabilize. The weekend price slightly declined. On 25, the propylene price fell again by 50-150 yuan / ton. On 26, the price still fell by about 100 yuan / ton. On 27, it fell by 100-150 yuan / ton. Today, it fell by about 100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 6400-6750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6500 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on May 27, 2020, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are calcium carbide (7.75%), pure benzene (3.18%) and ethylene (3.16%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were dichloromethane (- 4.17%), styrene (- 1.82%) and yellow phosphorus (- 1.78%). The average price of this day is 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the price of raw material propylene has declined, and the transaction in the propylene oxide market has weakened. The downstream industry is cautious and has a strong wait-and-see mood, but the factory has no inventory pressure for the moment. It is expected that in the short term, the market of propylene oxide will be mainly stagnant, sorted and operated, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong began to fall after continuing to rise. As of May 27, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 2300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, or 4.17% compared with the same period last week.

Commencement of plant capacity of the enterprise

440000 tons / year in Jinling, Shandong 80%

Dongying Jinmao 120000t / a parking

40 million tons / year 50% of Luxi Chemical

280000t / A, 50% in Dongyue, Shandong

The main reason for the downward trend of dichloromethane market in Shandong is the poor downstream demand. At present, most dichloromethane units in Shandong Province are in negative operation, the enterprise inventory is acceptable, and the spot supply is stable. At present, the quotation in Shandong Province is about 2200-2450 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is about 2400 yuan / ton, and that in East China is about 2100-2350 yuan / ton. The downstream purchase just needs to be soft, the buying atmosphere in the industry is weak, the market price of refrigerants has almost bottomed out, the enterprise has not started enough, the support for dichloromethane is not good, the manufacturers are reluctant to sell at a high price, but the terminal demand recovery is slow, the rising power is insufficient, and the current price is around 15500 yuan / ton; the purchase just needs to be weak in the solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry, and the support for dichloromethane is insufficient 。 The demand side is negative as a whole.

Secondly, the continuous downward market price of raw material methanol can not form an effective support for the dichloromethane market. At present, the methanol market is up and down, with the main trend of decline. The trade is not smooth, and the gas buying is weak. At present, about 1630 yuan / ton.

At present, the only positive information of dichloromethane market is that the performance of liquid chlorine market is relatively strong, and the start-up of liquid chlorine manufacturers in Shandong is not high, but the recent start-up of units in North China is gradually improving, and the market supply is expected to increase, which has a certain negative impact on the liquid chlorine market. At present, the market quotation is 600-800 yuan / ton.

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business agency, at present, the dichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province have started smoothly, the spot supply is acceptable, and the performance of the downstream demand side is sluggish, which leads to the light buying enterprises in the industry, which is expected to be stable, moderate and soft in a short period of time.

In the middle and late May, the domestic liquid ammonia market has been in a downward trend for two consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since May, for example, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has dropped by 5%, mainly due to the two-way attack of high inventory and weak demand. Under the pressure of manufacturers, the factory price has been repeatedly lowered, and the market offer has been continuously lower. The range is 200-400 yuan / ton, and the market offer is 2500-2700 yuan / ton near the end of the month.

Shandong and Hebei, the main producing areas, showed a significant decline. On the one hand, since March, affected by the peak season of spring ploughing, the demand for liquid ammonia in China has increased sharply. Compared with other chemical products, liquid ammonia has gone out of the independent upward market. At the same time, the factory’s operating rate also rose to a relatively high level. Until May, the market operating rate was still around 90%. However, with the end of the peak season, the market calms down and the downstream purchase shrinks, leading to the gradual accumulation of liquid ammonia by manufacturers. At present, the amount of ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other regions has been high, so it is inevitable for enterprises to reduce price and inventory.

The increase in supply is on the one hand, and more importantly, downstream demand has declined significantly, which is currently in the off-season of fertilizer. In terms of compound fertilizer, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises this week is generally below 50%. Since April, the operating rate has dropped again and again, which is basically the same as last year. At the same time, in order to cope with the increase of ammonia quantity, some enterprises switched to urea production to relieve the pressure of high inventory, which further confirmed the weakness of the downstream and the decrease of the delivery speed of liquid ammonia.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the supply pressure is still there, the peak season has passed, the demand is low, and the market may enter a relatively empty window period. However, with the limited production of the enterprise, the inventory will continue to be destocked, and the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually ease. It is expected that the price will still be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, with the alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand, the liquid ammonia market will return to temperature.

Last week, the acetone market was extremely high and cold, and the terminal did not keep pace with the market. After the middle of the week, the trend fell, and the price in East China fell to 7900 yuan / ton. However, in the opening of this week, the price in East China rose 200 yuan / ton again, and the main offer was 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and the supply in the hands of traders was scarce.

First of all, the manufacturer controls the quantity and the supply is tight. On May 9, Tianjin phenol ketone plant in Zhongsha was shut down for maintenance for 2 months, and then the factory controlled the delivery volume according to the plan. However, at the end of the week, there was a shortage of goods, so that the acetone market in surrounding areas of Yanshan kept a high price of 8500 yuan / ton. This week, Yangzhou Shiyou acetone Co., Ltd. in East China will stop its export. For a while, the supply news will be good. With 16500 tons of port inventory in East China, the traders’ offer has been greatly pushed up. Of course, the push up is also sustained by the surrounding areas, which increases the market demand for East China. Current offers in the mainstream market: 8100-8200 yuan / ton in East China, 8400-8500 yuan / ton in surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong. The offer of mainstream factories in East China is 8000 yuan / ton (Shanghai Gaoqiao, Sinopec Mitsui, etc.), 8300 yuan / ton (Yangzhou Shiyou), 8400 yuan / ton (Lihua yiweiyuan), and 8100 yuan / ton.

Second, the terminal demand, without exception, continues to improve. First, the market of bisphenol a rose sharply today. The market offer exceeded 10000 yuan per ton, and the overall market rose by 200-400 yuan per ton, while the factory started steadily. Second, the price of isopropanol continued to be high, with an overall price of 11500-12000 yuan / ton. The factory was fully loaded, and the overseas epidemic situation was still not improved. The demand for disinfectants continued to grow steadily. The production of isopropanol factory was stable, and the demand for raw acetone was large. Third, the downstream MMA remained at a high level, and the overall trading was good. The high price acetone market just needed to be purchased. Fourth, the downstream MIBK was shut down due to the surge in raw materials. However, today’s market also saw a substantial increase in offers. The increase in downstream demand is expected to drive more demand and the factory will resume work.

Third, the raw material market is running at a high level. In terms of pure benzene, this month, the pure benzene market has been showing a unilateral upward trend. The ex factory price of pure benzene in Shandong increased from 2960 yuan / ton to 3460 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 16.89%. Up to now, the offer of pure benzene has been stable but at a high level. As of last Friday, propylene, another raw material, also showed a unilateral upward trend in this month. The ex factory price in Shandong increased from 5995 yuan / ton to 6979 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 16.41%. Although propylene was explored in a narrow range at the beginning of this week, it was generally high.

In addition, phenol and ketone industry chain is the main actor with full market confidence. It can be seen from last week’s chemical industry list that the whole chemical industry is showing a trend of more growth and less decline. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, including 5 kinds of commodities with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; there are 24 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month. Among them, the phenol and ketone industry chain in the chemical industry list has 5 rising commodities and 0 falling commodities. The phenol and ketone industry has increased or decreased by 1.62% in a week.

Near the end of the month, the manufacturer controls the shipment, the traders have less goods, the port supplies more isopropanol factories, the current market confidence is good, if the downstream MMA and MIBK can continue to improve, the acetone will maintain high-level operation in the short term, it is expected that the short-term acetone market will offer 8150-8300 yuan / ton, and the acetone market will close at a high level in May.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, cobalt market recovered in May, and the price of cobalt rose in shock. As of May 22, the price of cobalt was 253000 yuan / ton, up 5.20% compared with the average price of 240500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market situation

Production of lithium battery rises

Date: monthly output (10000 units) cumulative output (10000 units) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

April 2020 142462.8 414949.8 16.2 – 5.4

March 2020 133436.5 271730.4 0.7 – 13.4

February 2020 – 142383.1 – 20.2

December 2019 162383.3 1572184.4 9.4 4

November 2019 142782.1 1397666.5 8.1 2.4

October 2019 144519.8 1228146.1 14 1.8

September 2019 147207.1 1082919.2 14.1 7.7

August 2019 134068.6 938469.8 7.8 6.5

July 2019 134881 831966 9.8 10

June 2019 126618.2 635721.4 7.2 6.9

May 2019 112631.1 504128.1 7.2 6.3

April 2019 106382.7 382262.8 8.1 6.1

March 2019 114331.5 276919.2 16.6 8.2

February 2019 – 169511.5 – 6.8

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, it can be seen that in 2020, the production of lithium batteries dropped sharply, and the demand of customers in the downstream industry chain of cobalt fell sharply. However, since March, the production of lithium batteries has risen slowly, which is good for the market of cobalt. In April, the production of lithium battery rose sharply, which was good for cobalt market. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of production, the output of lithium battery will rise steadily in May, which will benefit the future market demand.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that since April, the downstream production of domestic cobalt market has risen slowly, and the demand of cobalt market has recovered, but the stock of cobalt market is sufficient, and the driving force of cobalt price rise in April is insufficient. Since May, the stock consumption of domestic cobalt market has increased. At the same time, affected by the epidemic situation, international cobalt mining and transportation have been restricted, metal cobalt and cobalt import have been blocked, domestic metal cobalt stock has continued to fall, and with the gradual recovery of domestic production and life, the demand of cobalt market has risen slowly, the demand of domestic cobalt market has been limited, and the power of cobalt price rise is sufficient, but the international market cobalt price is slow Decline, the international market demand for cobalt fell sharply, and the decline in demand is far greater than the decline in supply, the overall global cobalt market rise risk is greater. On the whole, domestic cobalt Market in the future has upward momentum, and cobalt price is expected to rise slightly in shock. However, the weak performance of the international market cobalt market affects the domestic market, and there is limited room for the domestic cobalt price to rise.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is at a low level in the year. As of May 21, the price of hydrofluoric acid is 8780 yuan / ton, which is 14.26% lower than the price trend at the beginning of the year, 21.11% lower than the same period last year. The price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level.

Products: in recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid has declined unilaterally in China. The goods in the hydrofluoric acid yard are generally sold. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is not good. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is low. In addition, the price of raw material fluorite is falling. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is affected by certain negative effects. The price of hydrofluoric acid in China is slightly lower. As of May 21, the South China hydrofluoric acid market is in a weak position The main stream of acid negotiation is 7500-8000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 7500-8500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remains low. The downstream refrigerant industry purchases on demand. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the delivery of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is poor. Some manufacturers report that the price is low in the near future, and some manufacturers report that the loss is serious. The market of hydrofluoric acid has many advantages and disadvantages, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has hit a new low in the year.

Industrial chain: it can be seen from the industrial chain diagram that the price of upstream and downstream products of hydrofluoric acid will decline in varying degrees in 2020, and the price of upstream fluorite will drop by 11.79%. As of the 21st day, the factory price of fluorite is 2577.78 yuan / ton. The supply of domestic fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite will remain low. The low price of upstream cost will have a negative impact on the market of hydrofluoric acid Grid is affected by low shock. Recently, the price of refrigerant products has recovered. As of the 21st day, the price of domestic R22 products is 15500 yuan / ton, and the price of R134a is 21333.33 yuan / ton. Recently, the sales of automobile industry is in a downturn, and the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal remains low. The demand for refrigerant is not good, the foreign special events are serious, the export of refrigerant terminals is not smooth, which is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the starting price of domestic air conditioning industry is low, The demand for after-sales maintenance is weak. On the whole, the demand at home and abroad is lower than expected. At present, the price of refrigerant R22 manufacturer rebounds from the bottom, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price rises slightly, while the situation of market price or not appears, and the price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 15500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of refrigerant products is still low. The price of hydrofluoric acid market is affected by the negative impact.

In the near future, the operation rate of domestic refrigerant unit remains low, and the market demand for hydrofluoric acid is general, but the downstream R22 price has increased. In addition, some manufacturers report that fluorite price is near the cost line, and there is little room for price decline in the later period. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst of business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still stable in the short term, and there may be a rebound opportunity in the later period.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market has increased. As of May 20, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 4937.5 yuan / ton, down 21.42% year on year. Recently, the price of crude oil has been rising, which has driven the domestic petrochemical products higher, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has recovered.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has gone up, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride is normal. However, the continuous rise of crude oil price has boosted the domestic petrochemical products, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has recovered. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride on site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, the on-site merchants are bullish, and the on-site price slightly rises. By the end of the 20th, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has gone up, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring method sources in East China is 4900-5200 yuan / ton, the main flow of the negotiation of naphthalene method sources is 4600-4800 yuan / ton; the main flow of the quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 4800-5100 yuan / ton, and the perspective mentality of phthalic anhydride market still exists, the market is normal, and the price of phthalic anhydride is warmer.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has been maintained at 4000 yuan / ton. The imported phthalic acid Market in port area has been kept volatile and stable. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in port area has recovered and the external price of phthalic acid has been higher. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. This week, the price of international crude oil has been rising. The phthalic acid merchants in the site are bullish and the price of phthalic acid has been stable, but There is an upward trend. Influenced by the crude oil price, the market price of phthalic anhydride has recovered.

The price of downstream DOP market is slightly higher, and the price of isooctanol is significantly higher, DOP enterprises operate at low load, DOP market price is slightly higher, PVC enterprise equipment starts normally, and customer procurement enthusiasm is stable. The market of plasticizer industry has recovered, DOP market quotation is 6800-7200 yuan / ton, market plasticizer transaction enthusiasm is increased, high-speed charges are increased, logistics and transportation costs are increased, downstream market is higher, which is good support for domestic phthalic anhydride market and phthalic anhydride market is warmer.

In the near future, the price of raw material phthalic acid is expected to go up. In addition, the downstream market is expected to pick up. In the later stage, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly, but the actual demand has not improved significantly, and this increase will not be very large.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers on May 19 twenty-one thousand three hundred and thirty-three point three three Yuan / ton, down from the previous day 1.54% 。 On May 18, R134a commodity index was seventy-nine point two seven , flat with yesterday, a new low in the cycle, higher than the highest point on September 2, 2019 one hundred It’s down 20.73% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R134a refrigerant market was weak on the 19th. In the near future, the price of raw materials continues to decline, the support of cost end weakens, and the terminal demand is still weak. Refrigerant R134a is mostly used in the field of automobile air conditioning, but at present, the automobile industry has not fully recovered its capacity, and the demand is limited. At the same time, new capacity such as domestic feiyuan chemical industry is released, and there is abundant supply in the field, so there is room for further decline in the future. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of May 19, the market price of refrigerant R134a was concentrated around 18000 yuan / ton to 24000 yuan / ton, and the actual price was relatively low.

Industry chain: in recent years, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has continued to decline due to the fall of downstream market price and the lower price of upstream fluorite. Most manufacturers have reported a serious loss of hydrofluoric acid in recent years. Overall, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has continued to fall due to the negative impact. As of 15 days, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 8830 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 7500-9000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 7500-9000 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia is 7500-8500 yuan / ton. The supply of hydrofluoric acid market is sufficient , the market price continued to fall.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 18, 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for the number of commodities monitored in this sector 3.4% ; the top three commodities were ethylene（ 19.61% ）Trichloromethane（ 10.53% ）, octanol（ 6.67% )。 There are 13 commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 commodity falling by more than 5%, accounting for the number of commodities monitored in this sector 1.1% ; the first three products were potassium chloride (- 13.53% ）, hydrochloric acid (- 3.18% ）, butanone (- 2.63% )。 The average rise and fall of this day is 0.32% 。

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, at present, the supply of refrigerant R134a is sufficient, but the demand still hasn’t improved, and the market trading is weak. It is expected that the market of refrigerant R134a will continue to decline in the short term.

Commodity index: on May 17, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), the overall quotation range of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) in China in May 2020 has not changed much, but the quotation of some manufacturers in Henan Province has slightly decreased. The main quotation in the first half of the month: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content, 10%-12%, including 350-400 yuan / ton in tax, 860-880 yuan / ton in solid and content 20-21%, 24% yuan in price, 1100-1200 yuan / ton in content, 26% yuan in price, 26% yuan in price, and 1580-2000 yuan per ton in solid content, 28% yuan or ton in spray content. The grade quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton. Some of the price changes are relatively small, and the reduction range is about 50-100 yuan / ton.

Upstream: according to the data of the business agency, in the first half of May, the main factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a fluctuating upward trend, with 1 daily report of 196.67 yuan / ton, up to 206.67 yuan / ton on the 7th and stable quotation of 210 yuan / ton on the 11th. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem. Downstream: demand is still the biggest determinant of product price, while downstream demand is still relatively low.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work; after February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area resumed production one after another; logistics gradually recovered in March, and transportation costs returned to normal; the overall production in April was normal, because the shipment was relatively difficult, some enterprises’ inventory was still high, and the production was affected; in May, the overall market did not have a big profit in the first half of the month Well, it’s going to be weak.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the price of the upstream raw materials has a small change in the near future, but the demand of the downstream is poor, and the high inventory of the manufacturers determines that the current market is still weak. At present, the market atmosphere is relatively low, and the future market is more likely to stabilize.