1、 Trend analysis

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, cobalt market recovered in May, and the price of cobalt rose in shock. As of May 22, the price of cobalt was 253000 yuan / ton, up 5.20% compared with the average price of 240500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

 

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2、 Market situation

 

Production of lithium battery rises

 

Date: monthly output (10000 units) cumulative output (10000 units) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

April 2020 142462.8 414949.8 16.2 – 5.4

March 2020 133436.5 271730.4 0.7 – 13.4

February 2020 – 142383.1 – 20.2

December 2019 162383.3 1572184.4 9.4 4

November 2019 142782.1 1397666.5 8.1 2.4

October 2019 144519.8 1228146.1 14 1.8

September 2019 147207.1 1082919.2 14.1 7.7

August 2019 134068.6 938469.8 7.8 6.5

July 2019 134881 831966 9.8 10

June 2019 126618.2 635721.4 7.2 6.9

May 2019 112631.1 504128.1 7.2 6.3

April 2019 106382.7 382262.8 8.1 6.1

March 2019 114331.5 276919.2 16.6 8.2

February 2019 – 169511.5 – 6.8

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According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, it can be seen that in 2020, the production of lithium batteries dropped sharply, and the demand of customers in the downstream industry chain of cobalt fell sharply. However, since March, the production of lithium batteries has risen slowly, which is good for the market of cobalt. In April, the production of lithium battery rose sharply, which was good for cobalt market. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of production, the output of lithium battery will rise steadily in May, which will benefit the future market demand.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that since April, the downstream production of domestic cobalt market has risen slowly, and the demand of cobalt market has recovered, but the stock of cobalt market is sufficient, and the driving force of cobalt price rise in April is insufficient. Since May, the stock consumption of domestic cobalt market has increased. At the same time, affected by the epidemic situation, international cobalt mining and transportation have been restricted, metal cobalt and cobalt import have been blocked, domestic metal cobalt stock has continued to fall, and with the gradual recovery of domestic production and life, the demand of cobalt market has risen slowly, the demand of domestic cobalt market has been limited, and the power of cobalt price rise is sufficient, but the international market cobalt price is slow Decline, the international market demand for cobalt fell sharply, and the decline in demand is far greater than the decline in supply, the overall global cobalt market rise risk is greater. On the whole, domestic cobalt Market in the future has upward momentum, and cobalt price is expected to rise slightly in shock. However, the weak performance of the international market cobalt market affects the domestic market, and there is limited room for the domestic cobalt price to rise.

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