1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was temporarily stable. The average price of cryolite in Henan this week was 5975 yuan / ton, which was stable within the week, up 1.27% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of cryolite in China was stable this week. The manufacturers in Henan started work normally, the storage capacity was sufficient, and the quotation was stable within the week. As of the 29th, the factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 5500-6800 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of cryolite in Henan was 5000-6200 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. According to the plant operation of manufacturers in Henan Province, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has a capacity of 30000 tons / year, about 70% of the plant has started operation, Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a full plant load and normal operation, and Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has an annual capacity of 40000 tons of cryolite plant, which has no shutdown plan. At present, the cryolite market has sufficient inventory, and the downstream demand is general. Once the enterprise talks about selling the cryolite, the transaction is acceptable.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market rose slightly this week, with a price increase of 0.41% in the week. At present, the supply of fluorite in the yard is tight, and the downstream demand is fair. Due to the weather in the north, some domestic fluorite enterprises shut down, and the favorable impact of the rising downstream market, the fluorite price rose. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, this week’s price trend continued to decline, with a decline of 0.91%. At present, the electrolytic aluminum market is weak. As the holiday approaches, the downstream demand is reduced, and the aluminum consumption enters the off-season. Some aluminum manufacturers have a holiday ahead of time. It is expected that the market will be weak in the future.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic manufacturers of cryolite start work normally, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, the transaction of manufacturers is less, and the downstream lacks effective support. As the holidays are approaching, some manufacturers have holidays ahead of time and the impact of logistics, the market of cryolite is temporarily stable in the later stage, and the specific attention is paid to the market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the external market price of ethylene rose first and then fell in January. On January 1, the price was US $1024.00/ton. On January 28, the average price of ethylene was US $1012.00/ton, down 1.17%. The highest price was US $1086.75/ton on November 11, down 6.88% compared with the current price, down 0.83% on a month on month basis, and up 20.01% on a year-on-year basis.

In January, the external market of ethylene showed a trend of first rising and then falling. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $920-930 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $892-900 per ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated slightly. As of the 27th, FD closed at US $1110-1120 / T in northwest Europe and CIF closed at US $1106-1117 / T in northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fluctuates greatly, rising first and then falling, and there is a rising trend in the near future. As of the 27th, the price of ethylene is 726-739 US dollars / ton. The overall price of ethylene fluctuates greatly in January. The fluctuation of crude oil drives the fluctuation of ethylene market.

International: on January 27, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $52.85/barrel, up US $0.24. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, the settlement price of the main contract was 55.53 US dollars / barrel, down 0.11 US dollars. The international oil price fluctuated in a narrow range on Wednesday, with little change. On the one hand, the market still expected the United States to launch large-scale stimulus measures, which was boosted by the favorable news of the sharp reduction of U.S. crude oil inventory; on the other hand, the market’s continued concern about the epidemic depressed the expectation of oil price rise.

Recently, the domestic styrene market rose steadily, and the night market rose sharply, which was mainly driven by the rising funds, driving the spot market to be better. Affected by the heavy fog, the Yangtze River Estuary was closed, resulting in the delay of port arrival, the concentration of arrival within the week, and the wharf inventory began to rise. In the next week, the maintenance plant will restart, the load of the device will be increased, and the supply is expected to increase. Although the downstream start-up has declined, it is still higher than that in the same period, and the procurement has maintained just demand.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, U.S. crude oil inventory is declining, but the market’s continuous concern about the epidemic situation is restricting oil demand, international oil prices fluctuate slightly, and cost support is general. Therefore, data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall as follows.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 27, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4700.00 yuan / ton, the market was running smoothly, the downstream just need to purchase, buy as you use, the overall market supply and demand balance, the quotation range was maintained between 4000-5000 yuan / ton, the shipment was smooth, and the inventory was sufficient.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable trend, and the demand has not increased significantly. The downstream just needs to purchase. The merchants take the goods cautiously, and the delivery is slow. The operating rate is normal, and the focus of negotiation is stable. The willingness to prepare goods near the Spring Festival is not strong. Most of them are contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited. At present, the delivery is smooth, and the negotiation atmosphere is general,

In the upstream hydrochloric acid market, the quotation of manufacturers is temporarily stable, the supply side is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm is general, the market maintains a stable trend, the quotation is mainly stable, and the trading atmosphere maintains the early level.

On January 26, the chemical industry index was 850 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 16.34% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.14% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market maintains a stable operation, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 26, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2650 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day and that of last Tuesday (January 19), with a three-month cycle and a year-on-year increase of 24.22%.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has maintained a stable trend. The prices of most enterprises have maintained a high and stable level, and the cost has been generally boosted. The downstream factories purchase more on demand, and the market is mainly stable and wait-and-see. According to the data monitoring of business association, the price quotation of formic acid of some enterprises is summarized as follows: the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton, the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2550 yuan / ton, the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 2800 yuan / ton, and the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Shandong tamasuk Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton It’s 2500 yuan / ton. The spot price of the merchants depends on the market. The actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

For upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province was temporarily stable on January 25. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 400-530 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand was general. There was a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda, and it was expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda would be weak. For upstream liquid ammonia, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price quoted by enterprises was 3383.33 yuan / ton as of January 25, up 2.84% compared with the beginning of the month; The upstream sulfuric acid Market in Shandong was temporarily stable on January 25. The upstream sulfur market was recently consolidated at a high level, and the cost support was good. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, the supply of sulfuric acid was normal, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid fluctuated slightly in the future. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of upstream methanol quoted by enterprises was 2335 yuan / ton as of January 25, which was down compared with last Tuesday (January 19) 06%, up 1.08% compared with the beginning of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on January 25, 2021, in the list of commodity prices, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which 2 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were paraformaldehyde (7.73%), lithium hydroxide (5.56%) and toluene (2.79%). There were 15 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were propane (- 12.56%), chloroform (- 6.21%) and propylene oxide (- 4.46%). The average daily rise and fall was – 0.03%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that the recent cost support is limited, and market trading is mainly on demand. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream are up, and the market price of aluminum fluoride in some areas is up by 100 yuan / ton, but on the whole, the factory price of aluminum fluoride enterprises is stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9166 yuan / ton on January 22, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price trend of fluorite market rose. As of the 22nd, the domestic price of fluorite was 2730 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.41% in January. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was tight. With the temperature dropping, some manufacturers in the north were parking, and the supply in the yard was slightly tight. The domestic price trend of fluorite rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite on the floor is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market rises due to the positive support.

Although the market price of aluminum fluoride in some areas has increased slightly, the overall operating rate of aluminum fluoride remains high and the market supply is sufficient; the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

Aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices rise, cost side is good for aluminum fluoride Market, and aluminum fluoride market price is expected to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal fell this week. On January 18, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 1037.5 yuan / ton, and on January 22, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 958.75 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 7.59% and a year-on-year increase of 70.68%. On January 21, the steam coal commodity index was 120.48, down 4.07 points from yesterday, down 3.62% from the highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19) in the cycle, and up 169.53% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of producing area, the price of producing area is still rising. Due to the severe epidemic situation in the main producing area, some coal mines stop production. The coal price in Inner Mongolia is stable, because the approved production capacity in a few areas has been used up and production has been suspended; in Shaanxi, because of the prevention and control of public health incidents, coal pulling has decreased. Overall supply is still relatively tight.

Downstream power plants: due to the rising temperature, the daily consumption of power plants decreased and the inventory of power plants increased. On the demand side, the pressure of power generation is relieved and the demand is decreased. Moreover, the power plant held a wait-and-see attitude towards the steam coal in February, and some traders lowered their prices to actively ship. The demand game between the buyer and the seller is mainly due to the uncertainty of power plant daily consumption in February.

Macro: on January 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the main data of industrial production above designated scale from January to December in 2020. In December, the national raw coal output was 351.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, 1.7 percentage points faster than that of last month; the daily output was 11.35 million tons, a month on month decrease of 230000 tons. From January to December, China’s raw coal output was 3843.74 million tons, up 0.9% year on year. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal prices rose slightly last week (January 11 to January 17), with the prices of steam coal, No.2 anthracite lump coal and coking coal rising 1.1%, 0.3% and 0.3% to 630 yuan, 959 yuan and 777 yuan per ton, respectively.

Business analysts believe that: the Spring Festival is approaching, the temperature in the south is about to pick up, and the daily consumption of steam coal may have reached a high point. The power plant had accumulated a large amount of inventory before, which reduced the short-term purchasing pressure and affected the transaction in the short-term spot market. However, the market has different attitudes towards the daily consumption of power plants in February. Overall, short-term steam coal prices or maintain a narrow consolidation market, specific to the downstream market demand.

According to the data from the commodity list of business news agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. On the 13th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1167.67 yuan / ton. On the 20th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1286.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.29%. The current price has increased by 10.29% month on month, and the current price has increased by 22.15% year on year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price has risen. As of January 20, the mainstream ex factory price in Central China is about 1233 yuan / ton, that in North China is 1060 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 1286 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy formaldehyde production capacity of 120000 tons / year formaldehyde plant has been restarted. Recently, some formaldehyde factories in Shandong Province have been operating at low load. Recently, formaldehyde inventory is at a low level and the market is going up.

Upstream methanol situation: Shandong methanol Lubei market reference price is about 2250 yuan / ton, sent to cash. The turnover of methanol market in central Shandong was stable to 2400 yuan / ton in cash, while the transportation of peripheral goods was limited at present, and the price dropped slightly to 2250-2280 yuan / ton in cash. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong Province is temporarily stable at around 2270-2280 yuan / ton, and Linyi receives local goods at around 2270-2280 yuan / ton without tax, so there is no quotation for logistics goods. Methanol market in some areas fell slightly, the overall price is relatively stable, can form a certain support for formaldehyde.

Recently, Shandong timber factory is in the rush stage before the holiday, which has a large demand for formaldehyde and a good trading atmosphere in the market. Formaldehyde manufacturers have a positive attitude, leading the rise of formaldehyde market. But today, Shandong began to control environmental protection, and the construction of downstream timber plants was tightened.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market fell slightly, the cost support is limited, and the downstream wood mills are willing to take a holiday, and the demand is weakening. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society expect that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall slightly.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the melamine market was mainly stable. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of January 15, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 0.93% compared with December 15, 2020, and increased by 30.54% over the same period in three months.

Melamine operation rate fell this week, but the demand was weak, downstream on-demand procurement still dominated, the market was flat, and the trading atmosphere was general. On January 15, the mainstream price of melamine in Shandong was around 7000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of melamine in Xinjiang was around 6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of melamine in Sichuan was around 6800 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, Shandong urea market rose on January 15. The recent high level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia shows good cost support. The downstream demand rose as a whole, and in agriculture, fertilizer preparation in some areas was appropriately advanced. In terms of industry, the demand of plate and compound fertilizer plants has been followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of businesses has improved. On the supply side, some units have been shut down for maintenance recently, and the overall start-up has declined. The market supply has remained low.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 02nd week of 2021 (1.11-1.15), there were 40 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 8 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were DMF (18.80%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (8.37%), epoxy resin (8.05%). There were 17 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were butadiene (- 11.42%), ox (- 6.00%) and chloroform (- 2.94%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.93%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the price of upstream urea has risen recently, and the cost support has been strengthened, but the downstream demand has not been followed up enough. It is expected that the melamine market may be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 1853.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1936.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 4.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.51%. Overall, urea market rose this week, with urea commodity index at 90.08 on January 15.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 1970 yuan / ton this weekend, up 120 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1950 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Minghua urea quoted 1890 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

In agriculture, affected by the epidemic situation, fertilizer preparation in some areas was appropriately advanced. In industry, the warning of heavy pollution weather has been lifted gradually, the start-up of plate and compound fertilizer plants has recovered, the demand has been followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of businesses has improved. On the supply side, local units were stopped or overhauled for a short time, while the overall start-up declined, and the market supply remained low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream urea products rose slightly this week: the price of LNG was temporarily stable, with a price of 5366.67 yuan / ton, up 75.00% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose this week, with a price increase of 1.84% from 3266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3326.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 10.64% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, at 7266.67 yuan / ton. Overall, urea cost support is strong this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand is better, the industrial demand has improved, the urea supply is tight, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China rose slightly this week. As of the 15th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride in China was 5612.5 yuan / ton, up 0.22% from 5600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 9.66%. The price trend of phthalic anhydride in China was mainly volatile.

This week, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market rose slightly, the market situation of phthalic anhydride was general, the recent downstream demand changed little, the price of o-benzene declined, the plasticizer market rose, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market was mainly volatile. The domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the floor is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand. The goods on the floor are general, and the trading market on the floor has little change. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, with limited high-end transactions on the market. The mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is 5600-5800 yuan / ton in the negotiation of neighboring France, 5400-5500 yuan / ton in the negotiation of naphthalene method; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5600-5700 yuan / ton, the market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in place, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride market rises slightly.

This week, the domestic price of o-benzene dropped to 4700 yuan / ton, with a 6.0% drop this week. The domestic price of o-benzene fell due to the bad influence of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in port area declined, and the external quotation of o-benzene declined. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual transaction price was discussed in detail. In addition, the wait-and-see sentiment of o-benzene merchants in the market still existed, and the price of o-benzene declined However, the downstream plasticizer market has improved, and the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has increased slightly.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream DOP market fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 9550 yuan / ton as of the 15th, which was 0.78% lower than the price of 9625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The cost of DOP raw materials, octanol price, equipment start-up of DOP enterprises were low, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell, and the demand of downstream customers was low. The plasticizer market is still driven by strong downward pressure. The transaction price is based on the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 9400-9900 yuan / ton, and the price rise of phthalic anhydride is limited.

Overall, the recent trend of crude oil prices remained high, while the domestic price of o-benzene declined, but the plasticizer market was mainly volatile, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly.

In the future, the domestic price trend of o-benzene is mainly stable, but the plasticizer transaction market is rising, and the DOP price is rising slightly. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain volatile next week.