The domestic fluorite price trend slightly decreased in September, with an average price of 3381.25 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.64% from the beginning price of 3437.5 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 4.75%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Recently, the fluorite market has stopped falling. With the shortage of supply and winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. At the end of the month, some.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price increase helps refrigerant market rise

The pricing of hydrofluoric acid by major domestic manufacturers has increased. In September, the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 10300-10800 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of hydrofluoric acid production has started. The pricing of hydrofluoric acid major factories has increased, which is a positive support for the domestic fluorite market. Fluorite prices will rise in the later period.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market for some refrigerant products has risen, and as a result, the fluorite market stopped falling in mid to late September.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and coupled with the rise in downstream hydrofluoric acid market, favorable factors will support the fluorite market price to rise in October.

This week (9.23-27), domestic liquid ammonia continued its upward trend from last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.71%. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, equipment maintenance and partial shutdowns in the northern region have eased supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2750-2880 yuan/ton.

The performance of equipment maintenance without reducing supply is tight

From the supply side, there is not much pressure on supply, and the production of equipment in the main northern production areas has decreased. Since September, the increase in maintenance equipment and temporary shutdown of ammonia companies have affected some production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and the Two Lakes region. As the weekend approaches, some manufacturers are tentatively raising their factory prices by more than 50-100 yuan/ton. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The downstream of the liquid ammonia industry chain has slightly improved

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the downstream environment of liquid ammonia has slightly improved, while the upstream natural gas remains sluggish. This week, prices have slightly decreased, with a drop of 0.21%. In addition, the downstream sector has generally rebounded, mainly reflected in the strong rigidity of downstream demand and a slight rebound in agricultural demand; In addition, industrial demand remains primarily driven by essential needs. The main downstream products are urea (0.19%) and DMF (0.98%).

Downstream urea market slightly rebounds

In terms of downstream related products such as urea, the urea market has rebounded this week with a slight increase in prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic urea market has risen by 0.19%. As of this Friday, the mainstream quotation for small and medium-sized particles in Shandong region is around 2150 yuan/ton. The increase in urea prices is very limited, mainly due to the delayed and unexpected agricultural demand, the weak autumn procurement season for compound fertilizers, and the market’s general wait-and-see attitude. The increase in shipments from urea factories is limited, but inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short-term supply and demand situation may maintain a basic balance, and prices will continue to consolidate.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, there is not much pressure on the market supply, equipment production is normal, and inventory continues to deplete. The enterprise has a certain price mentality, but it is not greatly affected by the improvement of downstream demand. Urea lacks sustained upward momentum, and the power to convert equipment to urea is insufficient. The output of liquid ammonia still shows rigidity. Overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market oversupply to occur in the short term.

From the demand side, there is a weak peak season for autumn fertilizer preparation, and the market is still relatively cold. Agricultural demand remains reasonable and stable, with weak demand and moderate growth. From the perspective of industrial demand, the continuous decline in downstream acrylonitrile production rate may pose a constraint on liquid ammonia. The peak season of ‘Golden September’ may be difficult to fulfill.

Taking all factors into consideration, the recent stability of liquid ammonia supply and demand is expected to be the main factor, and it is expected that the market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term, with no further significant upward momentum in prices.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On September 26th, the average market price was 8233 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today’s domestic pure benzene prices are weak and downward, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is currently light. The crude oil market is experiencing poor performance, and the price of pure benzene is weakening along with crude oil. The main focus is on destocking of port inventory, but there is a significant accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. As a result, Shandong’s local refining market continues to decline. Prediction: It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic lithium carbonate market was weak in September. As of September 25th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 77800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.82% from the same period last month when it was 84400 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 75200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.84% from the same period last month when it was 81600 yuan/ton.

1、 The reduction in production is lower than expected

Recently, Ningde Times Yichun project and Jiuling Lithium Industry announced the suspension of production for maintenance. However, actual production data shows that domestic lithium carbonate production has decreased by about 3000 tons per month, which is significantly lower than the market expectation of around 5000 tons. The supply of lithium carbonate in the market has not significantly decreased as expected, which has not provided favorable support for prices.

2、 Demand peak season falls short of high inventory

Currently, it is the peak demand season for lithium carbonate, and the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage fields has significantly increased the demand for lithium carbonate. In terms of power batteries, in August, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 47.2GWh, a month on month increase of 13.5% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 12.1 GWh, accounting for 25.7% of the total installed capacity, a month on month increase of 6.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 35.0 GWh, accounting for 74.2% of the total installed capacity, a month on month increase of 16.1%, and a year-on-year increase of 45.6%.

Yahua Group’s annual production of 100000 tons in Sichuan and Ganfeng Lithium’s integrated project of lithium iron phosphate in Inner Mongolia have both made new progress this month, with increasing pressure on the supply side. The overall supply and demand are matched to the inventory side, and although inventory continues to be depleted, the speed of depletion is not very ideal.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the lithium carbonate market showed a weak and volatile trend in September. The arrival of the peak demand season and the growing demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage have provided certain support for the market. However, the unsatisfactory speed of inventory turnover and the dynamic changes in market supply and demand may make it difficult for prices to experience significant increases or decreases.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 24th, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2675 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.9% compared to 2625 yuan/ton on September 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last month on September 24th at 2750 yuan/ton, it decreased by 2.73%; Compared to the same period last year on September 24th, it decreased by 22.16%.

1、 Weakened cost support

The price of methanol, the main raw material, has fallen: As the main production raw material for formic acid, the price trend of methanol has a significant impact on the cost of formic acid. Recently, the methanol market prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend, leading to a weakening of cost support for formic acid producers. The unfavorable changes in cost have made formic acid producers more cautious in pricing, and even have to respond to market changes by lowering prices.

2、 Stable supply is the main focus

Overall sufficient supply: Although some formic acid production enterprises have equipment maintenance and production reduction, the overall capacity utilization rate is still high, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. This to some extent limits the upward space of formic acid prices.

3、 Poor performance on the demand side

Downstream industry off-season: The main downstream industries of formic acid include textiles, leather, pharmaceuticals, rubber, etc. These industries have weak purchasing intentions during the off-season, resulting in weak demand for formic acid in the market. The decrease in downstream demand has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance in the formic acid market.

Low enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement: Due to the off-season in downstream industries and low demand for formic acid, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is generally low. This has led to significant shipping pressure for formic acid producers, who have to stimulate sales by lowering prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current formic acid market is characterized by a stalemate in supply and demand, balanced production and sales, and no significant positive factors to support price increases in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the formic acid market will continue to maintain a volatile trend and it is difficult to see a significant rebound.

This week (9.14-9.20), there was a slight improvement in trading in the domestic acrylonitrile spot market, with supply expected to continue to decrease and market prices stabilizing. Shandong, as the region with the most active spot trading volume, has reached the mainstream transaction reference price of 8250-8450 yuan/ton as of September 20th, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the reference price of 8150-8350 yuan/ton on September 13th.

This week’s positive support still comes from the supply side: the inventory of acrylonitrile factories continued to decline during the week. As of September 18th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 49700 tons, a decrease of -0.76% compared to last week, a decrease of -13.26%.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market has risen narrowly. As of the weekend, the mainstream closing reference is 6580-6680 yuan/ton, an increase of+0.23% compared to last week, with limited cost support.

Weak demand: This week, some new equipment from ABS manufacturers has encountered some difficulties in production, with qualified products not being released as scheduled. Additionally, some maintenance equipment has been restarted and maintained at low load or with slightly delayed restart times. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 65.44%, an increase of 4.87% compared to the previous period.

Market expectation: Overall, the factory inventory is currently not under pressure, and there are maintenance plans for both the north and south facilities next month. At the same time, there is a certain expectation of stocking demand before the long holiday. The spot market preference is fluctuating, but it is still insufficient to continue to rise. We are concerned about the positive news landing.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6790 yuan/ton, which is 0.30% higher than the reference average price of 6770 yuan/ton on September 11th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7033 yuan/ton, which is 0.72% higher than the reference average price of 6983 yuan/ton on September 11th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market saw a slight increase in mid September. As of September 20th, the delivery price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6850-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 7033 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In mid September, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus slightly decreased due to lack of market confidence and increased wait-and-see sentiment. Specific transaction negotiations are underway. It is expected that the short-term yellow phosphorus market will mainly focus on consolidation and operation.

Raw material phosphate rock market. In mid September, the market price of phosphate rock remained stable at a high level, with tight supply in some areas, and the main focus was on issuing preliminary orders. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

In mid September, some wet process phosphoric acid plants resumed production and market supply increased. Before the holiday, downstream companies began actively stocking up, and the market urgently needed support. At present, the phosphoric acid market maintains a supply-demand balance.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has experienced narrow fluctuations in recent days. At present, the raw material phosphate rock remains strong at a high level, while the raw material yellow phosphorus market is weakening, and the market supply and demand are stable. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will remain stagnant and operate mainly.

After the holiday, the domestic melamine market was weakly consolidated, downstream industrial demand was low, and there were few new transactions in the market. The overall atmosphere was sluggish. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6762.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6775.00 yuan/ton). The price drop of enterprises in various regions is between 50-100 yuan/ton.

The main reason for the sustained decline in the domestic melamine market recently is insufficient demand. In addition, the price of raw material urea has started to decline, and the transactions of melamine enterprises in the first week after the holiday are limited, resulting in a continuous decrease in prices. With the rapid decline in high-end prices, the wait-and-see mentality of downstream enterprises has intensified. In addition, downstream enterprises have more or less stocked up before the holiday, resulting in poor purchasing enthusiasm. Domestic trade demand is weak, and exports are also in a wait-and-see state. The melamine market lacks strong support, and prices continue to fall.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the operating rate of domestic sheet metal enterprises has decreased, and coupled with local environmental inspections, the operating rate in some areas is less than 50%. Due to reduced demand, melamine companies have difficulty following up on new orders, resulting in a significant decline in the market. Buyers are hesitant to enter the market unless they have urgent needs, leading to frequent low prices in the melamine market.

Raw material prices are falling

Recently, there has been another large-scale decline in domestic urea prices, and the current market lacks positive news to boost the market, resulting in a continued weak downward trend in prices. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2171.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton). The current market supply and demand fundamentals are weakly supported, with weak trading sentiment and a narrow downward trend in the market. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to decline in the short term, and the market will be mainly dominated by weak consolidation.

Overall, there is no positive expectation for the domestic melamine market in the short term. It is expected that the mainstream price at atmospheric pressure will be around 6500-6700 yuan/ton next week. In the later stage, we need to mainly focus on downstream demand dynamics and changes in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has been declining first and then rising recently (9.9-9.18), with an overall downward trend. On September 9th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6320 yuan/ton, and on September 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices fluctuating downward. During the cycle, the crude oil market fell first and then rose. The early trend dragged down the weak mentality of the toluene market. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the crude oil market rose, driving the toluene market to recover slightly after the festival. On the supply side, the overall inventory of toluene in East and South China was low this week, but due to the downstream wait-and-see mentality, market trading was significantly sluggish. The main refineries have repeatedly lowered their ex factory prices, and local refining enterprises have continuously lowered their quotations. Downstream companies are observing and the purchasing enthusiasm is generally weak. As of September 18th, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 6200-6250 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In September, the crude oil trend sharply declined, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affected the crude oil market trend. The easing of the situation at the beginning of the month led to a significant decline in the crude oil market; Since September, there have been concerns about the future demand for crude oil market, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; Finally, due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and negative factors, the overall crude oil market prices have significantly decreased. As of September 17th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.19 per barrel, an increase of $1.10 or 1.6%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, an increase of $0.86 or 1.2%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude adjustment among different underground sources. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of September 18th, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6150-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On September 18th, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 9th. PX prices continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $834-836/ton as of September 17th, a cumulative decrease of $31/ton from $865-867/ton on September 8th

Market forecast: The cost side crude oil market has been weak recently, and the overall market environment is bearish. The recovery of the crude oil market during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday will provide some boost to the market. In terms of supply, local refining enterprises in Shandong have experienced a slight decline in production recently, but overall supply is still relatively loose, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Recently, the overall atmosphere in the toluene market has been weak, with low downstream purchasing intentions and limited trading. Although prices have been at a low level for the year, some regions have expressed some intention to replenish inventory, but overall transactions are limited. Downstream demand tends to be rigid, and demand support is insufficient. Overall, there are still negative factors in the toluene market, and the mentality of supply and demand game is still strong. It is expected that the short-term trend will be dominated by narrow fluctuations. Focus on downstream replenishment in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 20400 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 20060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67% and a decrease of 17.45% compared to the same period last year. On September 13th, the bromine commodity index was 70.88, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 71.09% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 20.30% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been running weakly, with prices in Shandong region showing a weak trend. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton, and the production of bromine enterprises is stabilizing with generally sufficient inventory; The overall quantity of imported bromine remains stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1384.33 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has decreased by 2.85% and increased by 27% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.