With Saudi Arabia’s increased spending boosting economic growth, the country expects higher oil prices than President Donald Trump might be satisfied with.

Data released Monday by the International Monetary Fund show that the world’s largest oil exporter needs oil prices to reach about $85 a barrel to achieve budget balance this year, up from an expected $73 in September.

This expectation highlights the thorny problems faced by Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Ben Saleman, who is trying to build closer ties with Trump on the one hand and financing a plan to revive economic growth and create jobs on the other. Saudi Arabia last week reiterated its commitment to achieve a balanced budget by 2023 and plans to increase spending by 7% this year.

Trump has repeatedly called on OPEC to keep oil prices low. On Friday, he tweeted that he had talks with Saudi Arabia and other oil suppliers about increasing oil supplies.

If oil prices rise further from an average of $62 a barrel so far this year, many of OPEC’s large member states and external partners are likely to achieve government budget surpluses. Saudi Arabia expects to reduce its budget deficit to 4.2% of GDP this year from 4.6% in 2018, a target economists say depends on rising oil prices.

“Oil prices may need as much as $95 a barrel to achieve fiscal balance in Saudi Arabia this year, but the IMF may assume that Saudi Arabia and the United States will transfer more funds to the Ministry of Finance,” said Ziad Daoud, chief Middle East economist at Bloomberg.

New York, April 26 news, COMEX copper futures closed higher on Friday, as investors are optimistic about the prospects of Sino-US trade negotiations.

The most active COMEX copper contract for May rose 2.50 cents to settle at $2.8865 a pound.

Fitch Solutions said in a report: “We believe that copper prices will rise at a limited rate in the coming weeks unless the U.S. -China trade agreement is finalized, because concerns about global economic growth remain.”

Copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 638,030 tons, the lowest since October 2017.

McMurlen Copper and Gold Mine in Freeport, USA, saw copper output fall by 18% to about 340,000 tons in the first quarter.

On April 24, the PX Commodity Index was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Price trend is stable for the time being. The start-up rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 24, the market of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 952-954 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 971-973 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On April 24, the price of WTI crude oil in June fell to $65.89 per barrel, a decline of $0.41. Brent crude oil in June rose to $74.57 per barrel, an increase of $0.06. The price of crude oil declined, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market stabilized temporarily. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend slightly increased on the 25th day, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6750-6850 yuan/ton, up to 24 domestic PTA start-up rate of about 78%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 91%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, is expected to lower in the later PX market price.

A source familiar with the talks said Monday that India hopes the United States will allow its allies to continue to buy some Iranian oil, rather than stop buying it altogether from May.

A person familiar with the matter told Reuters that the United States is expected to announce on Monday that all buyers of Iranian oil must stop imports soon or face sanctions. This led to a 3% jump in crude oil prices to a high in 2019.

” They need to take care of their allies and strategic partners. From the very beginning, there has been talk of a gradual decrease in sanctions rather than a sudden drop to zero, “said the source, who asked for anonymity because of sensitive issues.

India is the second largest buyer of Iranian oil after China. India’s oil purchases from Iran have almost halved since November 2018. At that time, Washington granted substantial reduction exemptions (SREs) to several countries and regions, including India.

” Under SREs, we hope they will grant us grace to buy some Iranian oil, “the source added.

Indian refiners have yet to place orders for Iranian oil next May, and they are waiting to see if Washington will extend the sanctions exemption.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic TDI market price rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 14966.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price was 15766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.35% in the week.

II. Market Analysis

Product: TDI price trend in East China this week has been up and down. Affected by the centralized booming of factories, on-site merchants are in a better mood after the market. Some of the offers are rising broadly. Some of them are cautious and wait-and-see for no quotation. On-site inquiry buying momentum has warmed up slightly, and the actual single transaction is still depressed. As of the 19th, domestic goods with tickets are quoted as 15900-16200 yuan/ton in East China, 16400-16600 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 15900-16100 yuan/ton in South China, 16400-16600 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 16400-16600 yuan/ton in Shanghai, and 16000 yuan/ton in North China. Refer to the vicinity of 16500 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: The price of nitric acid in the upstream of TDI in China continued to be stable this week, with the market price of 1560.00 yuan/ton as of the end of the week, which was more stable than that at the beginning of the week; the price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu was 1550-1600 yuan/ton, that quoted by Anhui was 1500-1600 yuan/ton, and that quoted by South China was 1950 yuan/ton. The situation of nitric acid in various places remained unchanged, and the price was stable. Domestic toluene prices continued to decline this week, with an average of 5,525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5,462.50 yuan/ton on Friday, a 1.13% drop in the week.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the data analyst of business associations, the TDI market is going up broadly at present, and the post-market mentality of the on-site merchants is positive, but there are fewer actual orders, the factory releases good news, and the stock is not pressured. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will rise steadily.

In terms of power batteries, the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released data on the production and sales of power batteries in March: in March, the output of power batteries in China totaled 8.2 GWh, an annular increase of 70.2%. Among them, the output of ternary batteries was 5.5GWh, accounting for 66.8% of the total output and 82.0% of the ring-to-ring ratio, while the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 2.5GWh, accounting for 30.4% of the total output and 49.4% of the ring-to-ring ratio. In March, China’s power battery sales totaled 6.8 Gwh, including 4.5 Gwh for ternary batteries, accounting for 66.5% of the total sales; 1.9 Gwh for lithium iron phosphate batteries, accounting for 28.3% of the total sales. The price of lithium iron phosphate batteries began to decline in late March, gradually showing cost advantages in low-mileage passenger cars. In the future, there will be polarization between lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary battery.

In terms of consumer batteries, the new national standard for electric bicycles was formally implemented this week. The lightweight advantages of lithium batteries are prominent because the weight and speed of the body are clearly stipulated by the policy. At present, ternary batteries are most widely used in this market, followed by manganese-based multi-component lithium batteries. SMM estimates that the demand for lithium batteries will be 8.9 GWh in the electric bicycle market in 2019, including 3.6 GWh for ternary batteries and 2.7 GWh for manganese-based multi-component lithium batteries. In addition, due to the recent release of new mobile phones in the mobile phone market, downstream terminal manufacturers have gradually shifted from the previous mode of ordering production by sales to the mode of pre-stocking, thus conducting orders to upstream lithium cobalt batteries and materials have improved.

Metal cobalt: This week, the quotation of foreign medium cobalt continues to rise, but it is still weaker than domestic cobalt price. Because of the sluggish buying interest at the consumer end, the quotation of domestic mainstream production enterprises has declined compared with the previous two weeks, and the market price still depends on the actual purchasing power. Within the week, there was insufficient trading and the market showed a situation of no market. The price of SMM cobalt electrolysis was 265 – 282,000 yuan / ton, the average price was flat compared with last week.

Cobalt salt and nickel salt: In the middle of the month, the market demand for cobalt salt was stable, the quotation of foreign media continued to rise. Domestic smelters intend to raise the quotation with the increase, but the lower reaches had enough stocks as early as the beginning of this month. Therefore, the current demand is general, and the willingness to keep up with the increase and build up stocks is low under the strong bearish mood. Therefore, although the quotation of producers has increased, the actual trading situation has been flat. The price of SMM cobalt sulfate is 52 – 54 thousand yuan per ton, the average price is up by 0.1 million yuan per ton compared with last week. SMM cobalt chloride is currently priced at 63 – 65,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 0.1 million yuan per ton higher than last week. SMM nickel sulfate price is 25500.00 – 27500.00 yuan / ton, the average price is flat than last week.

Cobalt tetroxide: Recently, the inquiry of cobalt tetroxide has converged, the quotation of cobalt tetroxide producers has been raised, and the purchase price downstream just needs to follow up. The current price of SMM cobalt tetroxide is between 195,000 and 205,000 yuan per ton, with the average price rising by 0.7 million yuan per ton compared with last week.

Ternary precursor: raw material nickel sulfate price is firm, cobalt sulfate producer’s quotation is pressing, ternary precursor manufacturer’s quotation is rising passively, transaction price is higher than earlier period. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523 type) is between 88 and 90,000 yuan per ton, the average price is 20,000 yuan per ton higher than last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622) is 93 – 96 thousand yuan per ton, and the average price is 20 thousand yuan per ton higher than last week.

Lithium carbonate: Recently, the supply of industrial grade lithium carbonate is tight and the demand is strong. Some manufacturers have begun to raise their quotations slightly. Battery-grade lithium carbonate knows that market demand is stable and there is no sign of price increase like industrial-grade lithium carbonate. The market of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to be stable and positive in the second quarter, and prices will keep or slightly rise in the short term. The volume of new capacity is expected to increase significantly in the early third quarter, and prices are expected to start to fall. SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 75,000 to 78,000 yuan per ton this week, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Lithium hydroxide: Battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices continued to fall this week. According to the industry, with the increase of battery-grade lithium hydroxide suppliers, few of the new supplies meet the industry’s high standards, so in order to seize market share and consider product positioning, some manufacturers have low-cost shipment behavior, which lowers the price focus. SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide was priced at 92-102,000 yuan/ton this week, with an average price of 0.11 million yuan/ton lower than last week.

Lithium cobalt: Influenced by the rising price of tetra-cobalt, lithium cobalt producers have recently raised their quotations. After watching, downstream battery factories have purchased batteries according to their needs, and the transaction price has gone up. SMM4 35V lithium cobalt price is 235 – 245,000 yuan per ton, the average price is 0.3 million yuan per ton higher than last week.

Ternary materials: The rising price of raw materials is gradually transmitted to ternary materials. This week, the transaction price of ternary materials in the Chinese market has risen slightly. Recently, the rising trend of cobalt raw materials has stopped a little. The downstream bearish sentiment is strong. It is expected that prices will continue to rise hard. The price of SMM ternary material (model 523) is 148,000 yuan per ton, and the average price is 20,000 yuan per ton higher than last week. The price of SMM ternary material (622) is 156 – 164,000 yuan per ton, and the average price is 0.1 million yuan per ton higher than last week.

Lithium iron phosphate: The price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable this week. Demand for lithium iron phosphate remained good in April, and small businesses that had previously operated without orders were gradually starting to operate, but only cash orders were received to avoid risks. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) this week is between 48,000 and 53,000 yuan/ton, the average price is stable compared with last week.

Lithium manganate: Lithium manganate manufacturers said that the recent market is good, the start-up rate has increased. In April, China’s production of lithium manganate is expected to increase by 10% annually, which also stimulates the purchase of upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate. SMM lithium manganate (capacity type) prices this week are 32-42,000 yuan/ton, the average price is unchanged from last week. SMM lithium manganate (power type) price this week is between 48,000 and 53,000 yuan/ton, the average price is unchanged from last week.

Future market forecast: this week, Jianengke said it would resume the export of cobalt raw materials from KATANGA. According to SMM research, the recovery of export volume of this batch is expected to come to the domestic port in late May. From January to February 2019, China’s import of cobalt raw materials totaled 92,000 tons of metal, down 31.34% from 134,000 tons in the same period last year. It is expected that the entry of this batch of goods will effectively improve the weak situation of cobalt raw materials import, and the balance of raw materials market will be broken again. On the lithium side, the price of lithium remained stable in the second quarter, given that there was no additional pressure on the supply in the near future under the maintenance and commissioning market, and demand grew slowly and moderately.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the overall price of toluene in China dropped this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of toluene was 5,525 yuan/ton, while on Friday, the average price of toluene was 5,463 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Upstream: For international crude oil, this week’s overall high oil price shocks, the average value continues to rise, oil prices are rising steadily, spot Brent 70.87-71.185 US dollars per barrel. The high volatility of crude oil outside the plate, the toluene market has also been shaken and adjusted.

2. FOB Korean toluene reference price was stable, rising from $703/ton at the beginning of the week to $710/ton on Tuesday, and then remained stable (closing on Friday). The import reference price in East China fluctuated with a price range of $707-720/ton.

This week, Sinopec’s listing price was generally stable, with the price of South China lowered by 100 yuan per ton. Domestic TRADERS’quotations fluctuate with market turbulence.

3. Downstream: Port stocks have decreased slightly, and the stocks in East China are about 70,000 tons. The overall downstream demand is not high, the focus of market negotiations has fallen, and the atmosphere was once negative.

3. Future Market Forecast

The toluene analyst of Business Society Chemical Branch thinks that in general, the toluene plant of large factories has entered the period of overhaul in recent years, and the output has decreased slightly. The international crude oil high shocks, the market is ideal; toluene market atmosphere is not good, but market participants do not short the future market, so it is expected that toluene prices will remain slightly shocked adjustment in the near future.

Price trends:

ABS market prices rose steadily in mid-April, according to business associations’big list data. As of April 18, ABS mainstream offer price is about 14200.00 yuan/ton.

2. Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: ABS upstream aspects, in mid-April Styrene Market rebound, there are news that some enterprises equipment maintenance, domestic inventory has also declined, transactions increased, the atmosphere warmed up; acrylonitrile-related products continued to tight supply at the beginning of the month, some large factories force majeure and maintenance consignment price, low spot inventory. Businessmen’quotations are rising and accompanied by the atmosphere of speculation, which is expected to continue to be strong in the near future. Butadiene stocks are relatively abundant, downstream just need to take goods, prudent purchasing, partial delivery is blocked, market prices are weak to sort out; raw materials have rises and falls, acrylonitrile quotations remain high, good ABS.

Demand: ABS downstream factories in mid-April are still mainly just in need, the market atmosphere is general, mostly detailed.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that ABS’s offer in mid-April was cost-effective, and downstream demand followed slowly. ABS offer is expected to continue in the near future.

Price trends:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the trend of caustic soda is temporarily stable, and the average price in Shandong market as of April 17 is about 696.67 yuan/ton. On April 16, the caustic soda commodity index was 100.24, which was the same as yesterday. It was 51.54% lower than the peak of 206.87 points in the cycle (2017-11-14), and 36.81% higher than the low of 73.27 points on March 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Caustic soda prices stop falling as a whole. On April 17, the overall stability of caustic soda in Shandong Province was temporary, and there were signs of improvement in low-concentration caustic soda shipments in many places. The shipment of low-concentration caustic soda was obviously improved, and the confidence of enterprises in stabilizing prices was improved. However, with the improvement of caustic soda shipments in recent years, the start-up rate of enterprises with earlier production reduction was increased, and the start-up rate of chlor-alkali plants in Shandong was 84.96%. Local mainstream price of 32% alkali is 620-800 yuan/ton. Caustic soda is mainly used in alumina, viscose staple fibers, chemical industry, printing and dyeing industries. As a whole, the demand of the downstream industry is shrinking, which is difficult to support the caustic soda market. The production cost of alumina in China has been effectively reduced. With the increase of the ex-factory price of high concentration alkali and flake alkali, the cost of taking goods in the market has risen. Alumina entering the market to sign orders to reduce inventory pressure, followed by increased equipment maintenance in chlor-alkali enterprises, market information gradually increased.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 14th week of 2019 (4.8-4.12), the price of chlor-alkali industry rose and fell in three categories, fell in one category, and rose and fell to zero in one category. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (44.90%), PVC (1.12%) and calcium carbide (0.24%); the main commodities falling were caustic soda (-5.86%). Average gains and losses this week were 8.08%.

Business analysts believe that demand in the lower reaches of the caustic soda market has improved and the positive side has gradually increased. Liquor-alkali market performance is flat, and most places flexibly adjust their shipments according to their own inventory situation. Short-term market prices or maintain a narrow range of volatility, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.

On April 15, the PX commodity index was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Price trend is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 15, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 10 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 1039-1041 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 1058-1060 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On April 15, the price of WTI crude oil in June fell to $63.40 per barrel, a decline of $0.49. Brent crude oil in June fell to $71.18 per barrel, a decline of $0.37. The price of crude oil declined slightly, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of p-xylene market stabilized temporarily. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA price trend shocks on the 16th day, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6700-6800 yuan/ton, as of the 15th domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, it is expected that PX market prices will remain stable in the later period.