Price trends:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the trend of caustic soda is temporarily stable, and the average price in Shandong market as of April 17 is about 696.67 yuan/ton. On April 16, the caustic soda commodity index was 100.24, which was the same as yesterday. It was 51.54% lower than the peak of 206.87 points in the cycle (2017-11-14), and 36.81% higher than the low of 73.27 points on March 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Caustic soda prices stop falling as a whole. On April 17, the overall stability of caustic soda in Shandong Province was temporary, and there were signs of improvement in low-concentration caustic soda shipments in many places. The shipment of low-concentration caustic soda was obviously improved, and the confidence of enterprises in stabilizing prices was improved. However, with the improvement of caustic soda shipments in recent years, the start-up rate of enterprises with earlier production reduction was increased, and the start-up rate of chlor-alkali plants in Shandong was 84.96%. Local mainstream price of 32% alkali is 620-800 yuan/ton. Caustic soda is mainly used in alumina, viscose staple fibers, chemical industry, printing and dyeing industries. As a whole, the demand of the downstream industry is shrinking, which is difficult to support the caustic soda market. The production cost of alumina in China has been effectively reduced. With the increase of the ex-factory price of high concentration alkali and flake alkali, the cost of taking goods in the market has risen. Alumina entering the market to sign orders to reduce inventory pressure, followed by increased equipment maintenance in chlor-alkali enterprises, market information gradually increased.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 14th week of 2019 (4.8-4.12), the price of chlor-alkali industry rose and fell in three categories, fell in one category, and rose and fell to zero in one category. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (44.90%), PVC (1.12%) and calcium carbide (0.24%); the main commodities falling were caustic soda (-5.86%). Average gains and losses this week were 8.08%.

Business analysts believe that demand in the lower reaches of the caustic soda market has improved and the positive side has gradually increased. Liquor-alkali market performance is flat, and most places flexibly adjust their shipments according to their own inventory situation. Short-term market prices or maintain a narrow range of volatility, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.