According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market fluctuated and rose in February, with an average price of 8550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8638 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The weekly increase was 1.03%, and the year-on-year decrease was 3.92%. The styrene market in February was greatly affected by raw material costs and supply and demand. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene rose, and styrene experienced a rise. The price of pure benzene continues to rise, with high cost prices and tightened profits for styrene. However, due to demand constraints, the price has rebounded.

News: Crude oil fluctuated and fell in February, with WTI crude oil falling below $70, hitting its lowest level in two months. Under multiple pressures such as geopolitics, global economy, and weak demand, oil prices are under pressure to decline.

Cost wise: The pure benzene market fluctuated and rose in February. In early February, the market saw good sales, major factories planned maintenance, the operating rate declined, and the price of pure benzene gradually increased. In late February, Shandong’s local refining enterprises had poor shipments, and the market was promoting discounts, causing prices to fall back to around the beginning of the month level.

Supply and demand side: styrene production is at a high level, supply remains loose, and the total market inventory is relatively high. Downstream ABS, PS, and EPS production gradually resumed after the Spring Festival and basically returned to normal levels by the end of February.

Market forecast: There will be an increase in styrene maintenance enterprises from March to April, and the market will enter the stage of digesting inventory. Downstream profits are low, and the increase in production is limited. Upstream pure benzene is selling at a discounted price, and there are many resistance factors to the rise of styrene. It is expected that the short-term market price of styrene will be under weak pressure.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market operated smoothly in February, with a slight overall increase. On February 1st, the market price of aniline was 9075 yuan/ton, and on February 26th, it was 9162 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.96% and a decrease of 16.61% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The fluctuation range of aniline in February was relatively small and fluctuated within a certain range. At the beginning of the month, supported by raw material prices, the price of aniline slightly increased. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival, downstream demand has recovered slowly after the holiday, and the speed of aniline shipment has slowed down, resulting in high market inventory. In mid to late month, the price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, while aniline; Profit margins have decreased, factories have raised prices, and under the influence of costs and supply and demand, prices have remained stable until the end of the month.

Pure benzene: In February, the pure benzene market first rose and then fell, with a strong rise in the first half of the month and a rebound in the second half. In the first half of the month, Shandong’s local refining companies had good shipments. Shandong Lihua Yi’s 200000 ton pure benzene plant began planned maintenance, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised by 100 to 7750 yuan/ton, causing a price increase. Subsequently, Shandong’s local refining companies had poor shipments, and the market started to promote sales, resulting in price reductions. On February 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7553 yuan/ton, and on February 26th, the average price of pure benzene was 7753 yuan/ton, with a 2.65% increase during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current sales situation in the aniline market is average, with raw material prices falling and profits recovering. There are plans for major factories to conduct maintenance in the future, and it is expected that the aniline market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

The listing price of Sinopec East China is executed at 6550 yuan/ton, and the listing price of Sinopec North China is executed at 6550 yuan/ton. The acetone market in East China has experienced a narrow downward trend, with negotiated prices ranging from 6400-6450 yuan/ton. There was slight replenishment at the port at the beginning of the week, and the port has a capacity of around 35500 tons. Traders have increased their intention to ship, and there is room for discounts on actual orders. However, coupled with weak demand and a clear lack of trading volume, the market opened lower at the beginning of the week.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on February 24th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 6400./ -100

Shandong region/ 6450./ -50

Yanshan region/ 6600./ -50

South China region/ 6400./ -50

On the 25th, Lihua Yi Acetone reduced its price by 50 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of the acetone industry is around 80%, and the operating rate has been relatively stable recently. In the short term, the industry’s mentality is bearish, and sporadic enterprises intend to lower their listing prices. The market trading atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is strong. It is expected to maintain stable operation today.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7300 yuan/ton, which was a fluctuating decrease of 0.85% compared to the price of 7362.50 yuan/ton on February 14. The operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The operating load of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, and the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of raw materials has decreased, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices has increased.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride facilities operate stably, with 60% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at full capacity. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have high inventory levels and sufficient supply.

This week, the cost of raw materials such as benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the price of ortho xylene was 7300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on February 14th last weekend. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the upward momentum of ortho phthalic anhydride is weakened. The price of industrial naphthalene has fallen, the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials has weakened.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the DOP price was 8513.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.16% compared to the DOP price of 8613.75 yuan/ton on February 14th last weekend. The downstream customers have completed the replenishment of inventory, but the downstream production is average. The demand for raw material phthalic anhydride urgently needs to be purchased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased, increasing the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, while the price of industrial naphthalene is falling. The cost of phthalic anhydride is decreasing, and the pressure of phthalic anhydride cost decline is increasing; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers has decreased, and coupled with the end of inventory replenishment, the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride demand has increased. In the future, demand will fall, industrial naphthalene prices will decrease, ortho benzene prices will remain stable, and the cost of phthalic anhydride will decrease. It is expected that phthalic anhydride prices will decline in the future.

This week (2.15-2.21), the nickel market first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, spot nickel prices were reported at 126016 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.29%.

Macro: Currently, with the measures taken by the People’s Bank of China to support economic recovery, China’s new bank loans in January hit a historic high and exceeded expectations, which has strengthened people’s expectations that China will introduce more stimulus measures in the coming months.

Supply side: Due to the tight supply during the rainy season, nickel ore prices have risen in the mining sector. The pattern of nickel surplus continues. On February 21st, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 28254 tons, a decrease of 863 tons during the week; The trend of LME nickel inventory accumulation has not stopped. On February 21st, LME nickel inventory was 192906 tons, an increase of 12006 tons during the week.

On the demand side: The resumption of work and procurement by downstream enterprises has improved, but overall demand growth remains relatively slow. There is an expected increase in stainless steel production in March, and some downstream enterprises have started to purchase materials in small quantities. The recovery of export orders is good, but the overall purchasing atmosphere is weak. Stainless steel prices have slightly increased this week. As of February 21st, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) is currently quoted at 12164.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29% from the beginning of the week. The proportion of installed ternary batteries is gradually decreasing, and the production of ternary positive electrode materials is mostly determined by sales, without contributing to incremental growth.

Market forecast: slight boost in demand, macroeconomic sentiment disturbance, but the pattern of nickel surplus continues, and the upward trend of the market is limited. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the low range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 18th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6720 yuan/ton, which is 0.60% higher than the reference average price of 6680 yuan/ton on February 12th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 18th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7133 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 0.23% compared to the reference average of 7116 yuan/ton on February 12th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the domestic price of phosphoric acid mainly fluctuated slightly. As of February 18th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6800-7500 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has fallen this week. Some enterprises have resumed production of yellow phosphorus plants, leading to an increase in market supply. Downstream urgent replenishment, mainly low-priced procurement, and a downward shift in market transaction focus. Short term domestic yellow phosphorus prices are expected to remain weak.

Supply and demand side

The supply and demand balance in the phosphoric acid market this week. At present, there is no significant demand in the supply side of the phosphoric acid market, and the demand is relatively stable. Downstream purchases are made on demand. Expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphate market has slightly increased. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is relatively weak, with insufficient cost support, but market demand is still acceptable and trading is stable. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly stabilize and operate smoothly.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97% compared to the beginning of this week (7725 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: The supply of epichlorohydrin has been reduced, and the industry’s operating rate is around 75.7%. The 300000 tons/year HPPO plant of Lihua Yiwei Yuan has been temporarily suspended from sale since the 13th due to upstream and downstream influences, which is beneficial for the epoxy propane market.

Raw material side: The propylene market on the raw material side is fluctuating, and the cost side is still under high pressure. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6878.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: After the price of epoxy propane hit bottom and rebounded this week, the downstream demand atmosphere has slightly improved, and market trading has rebounded. As some factories gradually resume production, it is expected that downstream will provide some support to the market in the near future.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that while the supply of epoxy propane in the market is reduced, downstream demand has increased. In addition, due to the temporary suspension of sales by large enterprises, the price of epoxy propane in the market may show a slight upward trend under favorable supply and demand conditions, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (2.10-14), the PVC spot market reversed its decline and prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere improved this week, reversing the previous decline. Driven by the futures market, the spot market slightly climbed this week. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. In the early stage, companies that had reduced their operating costs have taken actions to increase their costs, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.

In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.

On the cost side: The market price of calcium carbide remained stable this week, and the market entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase or decrease of calcium carbide was zero. The increase in downstream procurement volume after the holiday has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4850-5060 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than before the year. Although the inventory of enterprises continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 13th, the styrene market experienced a slight decline. From a news perspective, crude oil inventories continue to rise, international oil prices have fallen, and the support on the raw material side is average. The on-site supply is relatively loose, and downstream demand needs to be improved. It is expected that the styrene market will be weakly consolidated in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has risen significantly after the Spring Festival. As of February 10th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2575.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.06% from 1892.50 yuan/ton on February 5th.

Cost aspect: Recently, crude oil prices have fallen, the United States has imposed tariffs, and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories has raised concerns in the market about crude oil demand. There is limited support for the petroleum coke market in terms of crude oil.

Supply side: After the Spring Festival, the shipment of locally refined petroleum coke has been good, with active transactions. The price of petroleum coke has continued to rise significantly, with an increase of 300-1200 yuan/ton. At present, the continuous status of petroleum coke storage in local refineries, coupled with plans to shut down or reduce production in some coking units, has reduced the supply of petroleum coke, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market. Recently, imported petroleum coke has been gradually entering the port for storage, and the port inventory has increased. However, currently, traders are mainly executing preliminary orders, and imported sponge coke resources are tight, resulting in continuous price increases.

On the demand side: In February, the performance of domestic industrial silicon processing production is still relatively differentiated. The overall operating rate in Xinjiang is expected to remain around 6 floors, while the operating rate in Northwest China is gradually recovering at around 80%. Some small factories in Yunnan have a slower recovery in operating, and the overall operating rate is expected to be around 25-28. At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. Metal silicon and upstream and downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the transmission between supply and demand is gradually recovering. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

At present, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is gradually increasing to the pre holiday level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and downstream processing plants have not fully resumed work, mainly consuming pre holiday inventory; Trump said he will impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, and China’s aluminum exports will continue to decrease. At present, aluminum carbon enterprises are actively replenishing raw petroleum coke after the holiday, and demand support is favorable for the petroleum coke market.

The market for calcined coke continues to rise after the holiday, and due to the continuous increase in petroleum coke prices, the cost pressure of calcined coke has increased. Some companies have suspended quoting and accepting orders.

Market forecast: Currently, the inventory of petroleum coke in local refineries is limited, some refineries have suspended shipments, and imported petroleum coke is in short supply; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises and negative electrode material raw material inventories of petroleum coke are low, and they are actively purchasing petroleum coke. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will continue to rise in the near future.