The price of aluminum fluoride fell in January

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of January 30, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11500 yuan/ton, down by 5.74% from 12200 yuan/ton on January 1. The cost fell, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell in January.

The price of raw materials fell

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 30, the price of fluorite was 3162.50 yuan/ton, down 4.17% from the price of 3300 yuan/ton on January 1; As of January 30, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10928.57 yuan/ton, down 12.57% from 12500 yuan/ton on January 1. The prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fallen sharply, the prices of raw materials have fallen, the cost of aluminum fluoride has fallen, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased.

Downstream demand rose in January

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 30, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18783.33 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from 18696.67 yuan/ton on January 1. The price of electrolytic aluminum fell first and then rose. The stock was replenished before and after the holiday. Downstream demand warmed up. The demand for aluminum fluoride increased. The downward pressure of aluminum fluoride weakened and the upward momentum remained.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of the aluminum fluoride industry of the Business Agency believe that the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell sharply in January, and the cost of aluminum fluoride fell; Stock up before and after the festival, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose slightly, and the demand for aluminum fluoride warmed up. As the cost of aluminum fluoride decreases and the demand recovers, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increases and the upward momentum remains. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market in China was 9133.33 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 44.71% year on year. The neopentyl glycol commodity index on January 15 was 44.02, which was the same as yesterday, down 57.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 2.25% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol were temporarily stable.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 6733.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7100.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.45%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late January, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream paint market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by the supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the Business Agency, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 43300 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the week was 42900 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.92%, down 21.39% year on year. The bromine commodity index on January 12 was 150.53, which was the same as yesterday, down 38.60% from the highest point of 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 155.48% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine was generally weak. Downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries have recently started to maintain low load and low starting point. Demand is obviously bleak, and bromine enterprises are slow to ship. The bromine manufacturers are mainly parking and consuming inventory, while the downstream take advantage of the opportunity to reduce the price, and near the Spring Festival, they are mainly multi-row warehouses.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur price fell this week, with the average market price of 1316.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1300 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 1.27%, down 38% year on year. The sulfur plant operates normally, the market supply is stable, the downstream purchase follows up as required, the focus of market transaction is light and stable, and the short-term sulfur market is wait-and-see operation.

According to the analysts of the Business News Agency, the price of bromine is weak in the near future, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have gradually stopped production in the near future, the market transaction is weak, the upstream sulfur price is falling, and bromine enterprises are mainly consuming inventory, and the Spring Festival is approaching. The supply-demand game, based on the comprehensive prediction of the weak price of bromine in the short term, consolidates the operating market, and depends on the downstream market demand.

This week (12.30-1.6), the nitrile rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of nitrile rubber was 15450 yuan/ton as of January 6, up 2.32% from 15100 yuan/ton last Friday. Downstream inquiries increased, and merchants’ offers were firm, but the market trading atmosphere warmed, and merchants’ offers were adjusted. At present, the mainstream market price of Lanhua nitrile 3305 is 14800~15200 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream reported 17300~17600 yuan/ton.

This week (12.30-1.6), the price of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile rose, and the cost of nitrile rubber rose. As of January 6, the price of butadiene was 7785 yuan/ton, up 7.51% from 7241 yuan/ton on Friday, according to the monitoring of Business News Agency. The external market of butadiene rose slightly during the week, and the prices of domestic mainstream suppliers were actively raised. At the same time, some manufacturers in Shandong Province bid for goods at a substantial price increase after the festival, which boosted the market prices to a wide jump in succession. As of January 6, the price of acrylonitrile was 9737 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from 9600 yuan/ton on Friday, according to the monitoring of Business News Agency. On the one hand, the short stop of Lihuayi acrylonitrile unit stimulated the market, on the other hand, the cost support, and the price of acrylonitrile rose slightly.

The supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable.

Recently, the downstream rubber product industries such as rubber hose and auto parts have increased their inquiries for nitrile rubber, and the market trading atmosphere has warmed up. The demand for nitrile rubber is slightly better than the previous support.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the Business Agency believe that the supply of NBR is temporarily stable, downstream inquiries are increasing, and the raw material butadiene continues to rise. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to recover slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average price of EPS ordinary material at the beginning of the week was 10500 yuan/ton, and the average price of EPS ordinary material at the end of the week was 10450 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, up 2.70% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

Near the end of the year, terminal parking was widespread, and market sentiment was cold. In recent years, the continuous expansion of EPS production capacity led to an obvious imbalance between supply and demand. Some businesses were short of the future market, and were cautious to wait and see. At the end of the year, the stock was relatively small, and the overall trading volume was poor. With the further reduction of temperature in the north, the demand for insulation panels represented by North China and Northeast China may fall to freezing point, and some EPS devices are expected to stop in advance.

On the cost side, the supply of styrene may remain high, and the demand for downstream hard rubber, especially EPS, will continue to weaken, but the intention to be bullish on funds has not changed temporarily. On the supply side, some early shutdown devices will resume production. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for downstream large parking areas is expected to continue to weaken next week.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The price of styrene rose first and then fell, and the EPS transaction was weak. It is expected that the EPS price will be mainly in a weak trend.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2698.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2742.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.63%, up 5.79% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on January 8 was 127.07, which was the same as yesterday, down 16.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 128.54% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support is good, downstream demand is weak, and urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2950 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the last weekend; Shandong Ruixing Urea quoted 2700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 70 yuan/ton from last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 30 yuan/ton compared with last weekend.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 6060.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6438.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.24%, up 28.93% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite is at a high level, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is 1870 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4673.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4606.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.43%, up 4.07% year-on-year from the same period last year. Upstream raw materials rose and fell sharply, and the price of urea was generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late January. According to the urea analyst of the Business News Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose slightly, and the cost of urea was well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 6, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton. The white carbon black was mainly stable, and the price fluctuation was not obvious compared with the same period last week. The overall market was mainly stable, and the mainstream price was about 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the white carbon black market was mainly operated stably, and the price fluctuation was not obvious. The mainstream price was about 6000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, the supply side is normal.

Chemical index: On January 5, the chemical index was 911 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 34.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 52.34% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The white carbon black analyst of the business community believes that the rubber grade white carbon black market will mainly operate stably in the short term

According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in December showed a downward trend, and the prices kept falling. As of December 31, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 504000 yuan/ton, down 11.73% compared with the average price of 571000 yuan/ton on December 1. On December 31, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 525000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.56% compared with the average price of 587000 yuan/ton on December 1.

Market supply

From the observation of market changes, the overall price of lithium carbonate in December was in a downward trend. Lithium salt plants on the market are still dominated by long-term associations, with a small number of spot transactions. In early December, the news that Yongxing Materials temporarily stopped production due to its cooperation with the local environmental protection investigation received the attention of insiders. It is understood that the main investigated areas are Shanggao, Gao’an, Yifeng, etc. Among them, Yongxing New Energy, Tiancheng Lithium and Linneng Lithium have announced the temporary shutdown of lithium carbonate smelting enterprises, which will have a certain impact on the overall production of lithium carbonate in December.

In late December, the price decline of lithium carbonate continued to expand, and the price of large lithium salt plants was slightly adjusted. Some of them were sold in stock, and the sentiment of price fixing was strong. With the completion of the annual sales plan, we did not need to rush out the individual orders, and started to sign the long-term agreement order for next year. However, traders have strong bearish sentiment, so the selling sentiment is heavy, and the transaction price keeps falling.

Demand side

The purchase intention price of downstream Sanyuan and iron lithium plants has been continuously lowered, and the purchase intensity has been reduced. The downstream market tends to be cautious about raw materials and inventory preparation, market demand sentiment and expected price are weak, and the downstream and terminal markets are basically in the state of digesting inventory, so the downward trend of lithium carbonate price is clear. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the positive pole factory generally reported that the order was reduced, and said that unless necessary, it might not plan to purchase before the year.

The market of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is weak. Due to the downward trend of lithium carbonate, the demand side is slightly weak, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is flat, and the market of lithium hydroxide is falling. In addition, the positive pole factory said that it was unnecessary to purchase goods and continued to be bearish on the future market price, so the price of lithium hydroxide decreased.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is weak. With the price of electric carbon and industrial carbon at the raw material end entering the downward cycle, the downstream is increasingly wait-and-see, and there is little purchase. All of them mainly consume the early inventory or prepare for mining on demand. The decrease in demand also led to a significant decline in the shipment of iron lithium enterprises in December.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from the business community, the current market continues to be bearish on the price of lithium salt. At the critical moment of signing the 2023 long order at the end of the year, the game between salt plants and material plants continues. In terms of traders, the quotation continues to decline, and a small number of low price spot transactions continue to drive the market price to gradually lower. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will continue to be weak.

This week (December 26-31, 2022), the downstream demand for nylon filament further cooled, the market continued to be weak, the price was weak and stable, and the supply of goods remained adequate and stable. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86D/24F)

According to the price monitoring of the business community, (December 26-31, 2022), the price of nylon filament was weak and stable. As of December 31, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 16980 yuan/ton, the same as last week’s price; Nylon POY (superior product; 86D/24F) quoted 14725 yuan/ton, the same as last week’s price; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 17750 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week’s price.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Raw material caprolactam: On December 26, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 11066 yuan/ton, and on December 30, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 11066 yuan/ton. Caprolactam prices are stable this week. Some caprolactam manufacturers have overhauled their devices, and some manufacturers have restarted their devices. The supply side has not changed much. The terminal demand is weak, a small amount of raw materials are purchased, and there are few deals on the market. In the case of weak supply and demand, caprolactam market is weak.

Supply and demand

At present, the commencement of nylon filament shows a downward trend, with overcapacity overflow, high inventory consolidation, and the market is dominated by the digestion of inventory. On the whole, the downstream demand shows that the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

In the later stage, the upstream raw materials are weak and low, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream demand will be further reduced, the downstream commencement will decline, and the overall demand for textile terminals will decrease. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.