According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and fell in August. From August 1st to 29th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 17616 yuan/ton to 17300 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.8% during the month and a year-on-year price drop of 1.8%.

In the first half of the month, domestic aggregated MDI prices continued to decline due to relatively high prices, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere downstream, and sluggish upstream sales, resulting in a weak and downward trend in the MDI market.

In mid month, with the consolidation and operation of MDI, the MDI market remained stable after a decline, with a clear willingness to raise prices in the upstream and on-demand procurement in the downstream. Subsequently, foreign companies were unable to reduce production due to force majeure, which boosted the news and led to a slight increase in MDI.

At the end of the month, the market demand increment was limited, and the main focus was on digesting the increase. To stimulate sales, the focus of some actual transactions has begun to shift slightly downwards.

On the supply side, Huntsman’s 470000 tons/year MDI production plant located in Rosenburg, the Netherlands, announced on August 5th local time that it was affected by the incident and was operating at low negative load. It resumed normal operation on the 13th.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is fluctuating upwards. As of August 29th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8560 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has fluctuated and risen, with gains returning at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. As of August 29th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10125 yuan/ton. The cost support for aggregated MDI is weak.

On the demand side, downstream companies enter the market at low prices, purchase on demand, and have a clear resistance to high prices. Under the dominance of the demand side, the market is prone to decline but difficult to rise.

Market forecast: In the near future, the willingness of suppliers to ship has increased, and the focus of market transactions has shifted downwards. With limited demand growth, analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be weak and follow suit.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on August 28th was 1870 yuan/ton. On August 27th, the baking soda commodity index was 124.11, a decrease of 0.07 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.38% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 40.60% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1400-1600 yuan/ton. Due to poor downstream demand, it is expected to operate weakly in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1810 yuan/ton.

Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 27, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7216 yuan/ton, a decrease of 717 yuan/ton or 9.03% compared to the reference price of 7933 yuan/ton on August 1.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that from August to present (8.1-8.27), the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China has shown a downward trend. In early August, the n-butanol market continued to decline, downstream demand was poor, new orders were light, and the market center gradually fell. As of August 15th, the n-butanol market in Shandong region was around 7300 yuan per ton, with a decline of 7.98% in early August. In late August, due to the brief shutdown of some factories producing n-butanol, which stimulated small-scale downstream stocking, the on-site market for n-butanol saw a slight boost, with market prices increasing by around 100-150 yuan/ton. Subsequently, as the equipment resumed operation, the upward momentum of the n-butanol market was insufficient, and the market recovered to a low level with consolidation. As the end of the month approached, downstream demand for n-butanol did not improve, and the market continued to decline. As of August 27th, the market price of n-butanol was around 7100-7350 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.14% in the latter half of the year.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

In terms of demand: In August, the overall downstream demand for n-butanol was mainly cautious in purchasing due to rigid demand, and the overall inquiry atmosphere in the market was average due to the continued low market trend. The support for n-butanol on the demand side is insufficient.

In terms of supply: In August, the supply side of n-butanol was basically in a relatively loose supply state, and the overall support provided by the supply side to the market was average.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ August 27th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7350 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7200-7350 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7600-7700 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7200-7400 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is relatively light, and the transmission of n-butanol supply and demand is slow. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, will mainly adjust and operate weakly. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on August 26th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 11940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton or 1.32% from August 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 12100 yuan/ton).

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in August, the overall focus of the domestic silicon metal market shifted downwards. In July, the domestic silicon metal market continued to decline. Entering August, in the first few days, the silicon metal market finally stopped falling and stabilized, and the market situation temporarily stabilized and operated. However, due to the lack of support in the market, it is difficult to maintain stability in the silicon metal market, and the overall market trend continues to move towards the bottom. In late August, the silicon metal market stopped falling and stabilized. As of August 26th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal 441 # market was yuan/ton.

On the supply side: In August, due to the continuous downward trend of the previous market, although a small number of metal silicon factories stopped production, the overall operating rate on site remained high. Therefore, the overall supply of metal silicon remained loose, and the overall pressure on the supply side was high. The market’s destocking performance was average, and the support provided by the supply side to metal silicon was weak.

On the demand side: In August, the overall downstream demand for silicon metal was weak, coupled with the continuous bottoming out of futures prices, accelerating the downward trend of market prices. Downstream users are cautious about purchasing raw materials, and silicon companies in the Sichuan Yunnan region have basically resumed production to the level of previous years’ abundant water periods. However, downstream demand has increased slightly, and the supply-demand imbalance still appears, leading to negative market sentiment.

Market analysis in the future

At present, there is still an oversupply situation in the metal silicon market. From a cost perspective, some small and medium-sized silicon enterprises have fallen to the edge of the cost line, and their willingness to continue to sell at a discount is not strong. However, the overall production reduction adjustment in the market is also limited. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade material has shown a downward trend this week. As of August 23, its average market price has been adjusted to 6787 yuan per ton.

In terms of raw material market this week, the price of polyester dual raw materials showed a slight narrowing downward trend, which failed to provide effective cost support for the PET market. As a result, the pessimistic sentiment within the PET market continues to ferment, with weak market demand and a significant decrease in trading activity, leading to a further decline in the focus of PET futures and spot prices.

In response to the current situation, senior analysts in the PET sector of Shengyi Society pointed out that due to insufficient cost support and relatively loose supply prospects, the PET market may continue its weak consolidation pattern in the short term. However, the actual trend of the market will still highly depend on further developments in raw material prices and the smooth implementation of potential equipment maintenance plans, which will have a direct impact on the supply and demand balance and price trends of the PET market.

Recently, the price of epichlorohydrin has continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 22, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8662.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.48% compared to the beginning of this month (8975.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the price of propylene in the market has risen, and the price of liquid chlorine has been running weakly and steadily. In addition, some liquid chlorine enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance due to malfunctions, resulting in a decrease in liquid chlorine exports and pressure on the cost of epichlorohydrin. Therefore, the price of liquid chlorine has remained firm in multiple aspects. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 22, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6890.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.72% compared to the beginning of this month (7083.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: Downstream mainly focuses on essential procurement, with a cold trading atmosphere and insufficient order volume. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, market atmosphere is weak, and the market is declining.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current cost of epoxy propane is under pressure, downstream new orders are generally followed up, and transactions are mainly driven by demand. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will mainly operate weakly and steadily, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash remained stable this week. As of August 19th, the average market price of soda ash was 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 1820 yuan/ton on August 13th, with a month on month decrease of 5.99%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market is running weakly and steadily. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has declined this week, resulting in a decrease in soda ash production. The overall total inventory of manufacturers remains at a relatively high level; On the demand side, there is an expectation of cold repair in the terminal market. The downstream glass industry mainly consumes inventory, with limited market procurement. The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the price of soda ash is running weakly. As of August 19th, the price of soda ash in East China has slightly decreased, with mainstream market prices for light soda ash ranging from 1700 to 2000 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in central China is relatively weak, with mainstream market prices for light soda ash ranging from 1600-1850 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass price market is weakly declining. As of August 19th, the market average price was 16.85 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 2.43% compared to the market average price of 17.27 yuan/square meter on August 13th. The glass market is operating at a high level, with sufficient inventory and weak downstream demand. The market is bearish, and some production lines have already undergone cold repairs, which may slow down the decline in glass prices in the future.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 33rd week of 2024 (8.12-8.16), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-4.85%), PVC (-0.93%), and caustic soda (-0.75%). The average increase or decrease this week is -1.09%.

Future forecast: Currently, the operating capacity of soda ash plants is at a high level, the inventory of spot alkali plants is sufficient, downstream glass industry has cold repair expectations, limited demand, weak trading in the soda ash market, and lack of favorable market conditions. Overall, it is expected that soda ash will continue to operate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

On August 16th, the domestic adipic acid market continued to be sluggish. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, adipic acid was 9250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 0.85% from next week.

2、 Market analysis

Cost aspect:

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, with some cost support. The average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market has dropped from 9406 yuan/ton to 9325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% during the cycle. Downstream demand is weak, and the domestic cyclohexanone market is experiencing a weak downward trend, resulting in a lower focus on transactions.

Supply side:

From the perspective of market supply, in terms of equipment, the operating load of succinic acid this week was around 6.8%, while the operating load of adipic acid decreased compared to last week. The main manufacturers are raising prices, and there may be expectations of price reductions in the future due to inventory pressure. Due to weak demand, the manufacturer’s shipment speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of favorable guidance on the supply side.

3、 Future forecast

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of pure benzene in the upstream has rebounded and the price of cyclohexanone is still declining. There is a long short game on the cost side, and downstream demand in the market is still in an inactive stage. It is expected that the domestic adipic acid market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP hit bottom and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9051 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.16% compared to the DOP price of 9251 yuan/ton on August 9th last weekend; Compared to August 15th, the DOP price of 9001 yuan/ton hit the bottom and rebounded, with an increase of 0.56%. Jin Jiu is approaching, and terminal demand is slowly recovering. The order situation has slightly increased, and the market sentiment is showing positive expectations. The weather has turned cooler, and the willingness of injection molding industry terminals to stock up has increased. The construction and infrastructure industry is expected to slowly recover in September, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded. The price of plasticizer DOP has hit the bottom and rebounded.

Raw material isooctanol prices hit bottom and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the price of isooctanol was 8300 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.60% compared to the price of 8700 yuan/ton on August 9th last weekend; Compared to August 15th, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose by 0.40% to 8266.67 yuan/ton. Part of the isooctanol manufacturers are undergoing maintenance, and during the weekend, the isooctanol from the Luxi manufacturer was sealed, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in pressure for isooctanol supply; The demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound, downstream enterprises are expected to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement, and manufacturers of isooctanol are more willing to raise prices. The support for the price increase of isooctanol is increasing, and the price of isooctanol has hit the bottom and rebounded.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 16th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 7850 yuan/ton, which was a fluctuation of 0.32% compared to the price of 7875 yuan/ton on August 9th. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7700-7800 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7300-7400 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and rose, while the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market remained strong and stable. The ortho benzene market fell, and cost support decreased, resulting in a decline in the ortho benzene phthalic anhydride market. The demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound, and the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride still exists. The downward space for phthalic anhydride is limited, and there is a strong willingness to build a bottom for phthalic anhydride.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has bottomed out and rebounded, while the price of phthalic anhydride has a strong willingness to bottom out. Therefore, the expected cost rebound of plasticizer DOP has been adjusted; In terms of demand, Jinjiu is approaching, and terminal demand is slowly recovering. The demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound, and the support for the rise in plasticizers is increasing. In the future, the cost of plasticizer raw materials has bottomed out and rebounded, and downstream demand is expected to rebound. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Last week (August 5-11), the fundamental performance of the upstream raw material caprolactam market for nylon filament was flat, with stable prices; The downstream demand needs to be followed up, and the nylon filament market is consolidating horizontally. Manufacturers are mainly holding steady and observing. The industry operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not high. The downstream terminal market performance is average, and the weaving operating rate continues to decline. Overall, the cost demand is average, and the nylon filament market is weak and stable, with a wait-and-see attitude.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament remained stable last week (August 5-11). As of August 11, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18640 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price. The price of nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is 16275 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

Weak decline in raw materials

Last week (August 5-11), the market fundamentals for nylon filament raw material caprolactam remained stable, with limited support for nylon filament. The supply expectation is slightly tight, and downstream nylon PA6 production remains at a high level, with stable demand. The supply expectation of caprolactam is slightly tight, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will be slightly better organized in the later stage.

Nylon PA6 chips, currently with stable raw material prices, have limited cost support, and downstream on-demand procurement has created a strong trading atmosphere in the market. It is expected that the caprolactam market will stabilize and weaken in the later stage.

Supply demand

This week (August 5-11), nylon manufacturers maintained stable operating loads and sufficient supply of goods. In August, it was the traditional off-season for textiles, and downstream demand was weak. The weaving start-up rate continued to decline, and downstream manufacturers continued to purchase according to demand, resulting in a downward trend in demand for nylon spinning.

Future forecast

The spot market for raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 is expected to be slightly better organized, with normal on-site supply and weak downstream demand. With the disappearance of high temperature weather, the trading atmosphere for nylon civilian silk may slightly rebound, but it will still be mainly based on on-demand procurement. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will follow the operation of raw material consolidation, and prices will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range.