In June 2023, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market will continue to decline. The Spot market price in East China will be 16350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 1.53% month on month.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that the electrolytic manganese market has been declining for five consecutive months since December 22. From the weekly bar chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market continued to decline in late May.

In terms of manganese ore: The manganese ore market remained weak in June. The supply and demand game is deadlocked, and the market mentality is inconsistent. Some miners are facing losses and their quotations are firm, while others are affected by the pressure of silicon and manganese manufacturers and the reduction of external quotations, resulting in loose transaction prices. As of June 28, the semi carbonate in Port of Tianjin was 31.3-31.5 yuan/ton, Australia was about 39.8 yuan/ton and Gabon was about 37.5-38 yuan/ton, which remained weak; The manganese mine in Qinzhou Port operates weakly and stably, with a relatively small price fluctuation range. The transaction price of semi carbonated acid is around 30.5 yuan/ton, while the price of Australian block is 39.5-40 yuan/ton, the price of high-quality Australian seeds is 37-37.5 yuan/ton, and the price of Gabon is around 37.5 yuan/ton.

In June 2023, the electrolytic manganese market overall declined. In early June, market news announced that a large domestic factory would resume work in the near future, and the market expected a loose supply in the future, leading to a wave of downward trend. In the middle of the month, market inventory data showed that the overall domestic electrolytic manganese inventory is running at a high level. Under the influence of loose supply, the electrolytic manganese market has been declining for four consecutive weeks this month. Although the weekly decline is only around 100 yuan/ton, it has a significant impact on market sentiment. Currently, the overall bearish atmosphere in the market is relatively strong. There has been no significant improvement in demand, and overall demand is weak. Downstream procurement intentions are still low, overall inventory is running at a high level, and the game mentality between supply and demand is strong, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. FOB prices have been declining for three consecutive weeks within the month, reaching $1980 to $2030 per ton on the 29th, a decrease of approximately $180 per ton compared to the same period last month. Overall, the business community expects that downstream demand will remain weak overall, and there will be little improvement in the short term. It is expected that the future market will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak, while waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

In June, the silicon manganese Spot market was dominated by weak operation under the situation of low price of silicon manganese steel bidding inquiry, insufficient cost support and obvious characteristics of terminal demand off-season. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6450-6650 yuan/ton on June 29th, with an average market price of 6566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.35% compared to the beginning of the month.

Steel recruitment situation:

The acceptance price for Baosteel’s electrolytic manganese bidding, including taxes, is 14700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the bidding price on June 15. The quantity is 1200 tons, and the delivery date is before July 25, 2023.

Baosteel’s new round of electrolytic manganese bidding: Baoshan Base has 1200 tons of electrolytic manganese sheets, while Wuhan Iron and Steel has 160 tons of electrolytic manganese sheets. The quotation deadline is June 30, 2023, and the delivery date is July 25, 2023.

Fushun Special Steel Electrolytic Metal Manganese Bidding: Quantity 96 tons, quotation as of June 28, 2023, delivery date July 31, 2023.

Shougang Corporation’s July 2023 electrolytic manganese sheet bidding: quantity 2400 tons, quotation as of June 28, 2023, delivery date July 31, 2023.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in April 2023 was approximately 20600.3 tons, a decrease of 38.42% compared to the previous month; In April 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 4700.006 tons, a decrease of 14.55% compared to the previous month.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the market price of Isobutyraldehyde fell sharply in June. The market price of Isobutyraldehyde fell from 7533.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6833.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.29%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 11.64% year-on-year. On June 27, the Isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 33.16, down 1.19 points from yesterday, down 68.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 10.09% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side, the price of domestic mainstream Isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly in June, and the inventory of manufacturers was average.

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand weakens

From the cost side, the upstream propylene market of Isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in June. The price of propylene first fell from 6460.75 yuan/ton on June 1 to 6155.75 yuan/ton on June 13, a decrease of 4.72%, and then rose to 6513.25 yuan/ton on June 28, an increase of 5.81%. Overall, the price of propylene increased by 0.81% in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.83% at the end of the month. The rising cost is well supported, which has a positive impact on the price of Isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market of Neopentyl glycol fell sharply in June. The market price of Neopentyl glycol dropped from 10433.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9500.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.95%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 32.94% year-on-year. Downstream market fell sharply, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for Isobutyraldehyde weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In the first ten days of July, the domestic Isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with average cost support. The downstream market of Neopentyl glycol fell sharply, the downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for Isobutyraldehyde weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic Isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Trade name: Isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (June 27th): 6533.33 yuan/ton

On June 27, the price of domestic Isobutyraldehyde market fell slightly, 233.34 yuan/ton lower than that on June 26, 3.45% lower, 15.52% lower than the same period last year. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, with average cost support. The downstream market of Neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level, and downstream customers were less active in purchasing Isobutyraldehyde. The trading of Isobutyraldehyde market was light, and the market price fell in shock.

It is expected that the domestic Isobutyraldehyde market price will continue to decline, mainly finishing. The average market price is around 6400 yuan/ton.

In June, the dichloromethane market rose first and then fell. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 26, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2400 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from 2410 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 6.25% from the monthly high of 2560 yuan/ton. The price of raw methanol fluctuated and fell, and the cost support of dichloromethane was weak; The pressure on the low to high supply surface continues before the start of the methane chloride plant; The price of downstream refrigerant R 32 is mainly small orders for dichloromethane procurement, and the demand side support is insufficient; The market range of dichloromethane fluctuated.

In June, the methane chloride unit declined in the early stage of commencement. In the late month, with the restart and load increase of Fuqiang and Huatai, the methane chloride increased slightly in the late stage of commencement, and the overall supply of dichloromethane was still under pressure.

In June, the price of raw material methanol was weak and volatile, and the cost support of dichloromethane was weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 26th, the spot price of methanol was 2061 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.63% from 2161 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point of the cycle is 2015 yuan/ton, and the high point is 2190 yuan/ton.

The downstream order volume is low, and the overall enthusiasm for construction has decreased. The downstream refrigerant R 32 market has entered the off-season; And the overall export situation is not optimistic except for a few enterprises; Near the end of the month, the shipment of dichloromethane was slightly depressed, and the demand for dichloromethane was weak.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane has increased at the end of the month, coupled with the continued sluggish demand side, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7840.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The current price has decreased by 5.91% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 22.96% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate slightly decreased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months recently, and the market has continued to decline this week. The upstream Potassium chloride market is lower, the cost support is poor, and the potash market is cold and quiet, the transaction is light, and the price drops. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7800 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

The domestic market of imported Potassium chloride fell slightly this week, from 2825.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2762.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.21%. On June 18, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 87.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.77% from the peak of 174.60 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 50.56% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. The overall trend of Potassium chloride market in late June may fall in a narrow range, mainly finishing.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market has been weak and consolidated. The Potassium chloride market has fallen, and the cost support is poor. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the recent price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong has dropped in shock. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4737.50 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4687.50 yuan/ton, down 1.06%, 6.25% month on month, and 12.93% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: This week, the domestic methanol market was weak and sorted out. With the arrival of high temperature weather, there are signs of stabilizing coal prices on the cost side, but there has been no significant improvement in the demand side, and the methanol cost side is still relatively empty. At the same time, the supply continues to increase, inventory is expected to continue to increase, and market confidence is insufficient. Downstream and traders mainly purchase according to demand. However, on the 21st, the methanol market rose. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong was set at around 2010-2030 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal in foreign exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi was set at around 2070-2080 yuan/ton for delivery in foreign exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2150-2180 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying region of Shandong is 2010-2020 yuan/ton.

In the near future, the methanol market has a trend of rising, with good cost support. Downstream companies maintain just need to purchase, and Paraformaldehyde manufacturers are actively shipping. The Paraformaldehyde analysts of the business community predict that the price will rise slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 20th, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9637.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% compared to last Thursday (June 15th).

Recently, the epoxy propane market has been operating weakly. As the holiday approaches, downstream purchases are moderately followed up, and the market atmosphere has rebounded. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, with average cost support. Last Friday, the supply end devices were mainly stable, and downstream procurement mentality was cautious. The market atmosphere was light, and the market was weak. On Monday, downstream restocking was just needed before the holiday, and factory shipments rebounded, easing inventory pressure. Enterprise quotations were mixed. On the 20th, the mainstream quotation for epoxy propane in the Shandong region was around 9300 to 9400 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on June 19, the reference price for propylene was 6243.25, a decrease of 3.37% compared to June 1 (6460.75).

The epoxy propane analyst at Business Society believes that the current cost impact is not significant. Downstream stocks need to be prepared just before the holiday, and the market atmosphere is still good. It is expected that the epoxy propane market may adjust its operation in a stable and narrow range in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The price of Aluminium fluoride drops in shock this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 19, the quotation of domestic Aluminium fluoride was 9975 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the price of Aluminium fluoride 10125 yuan/ton on June 9 last weekend. The price of raw materials is weak and stable, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable. This week, the price of Aluminium fluoride drops in shock.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 19, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of 9657.14 yuan/ton on June 9 last weekend. This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, the cost of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride remains.

Fluctuation and stabilization of fluorite prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 19, the price of fluorite was 3136.25 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of fluorite on June 2, which was 3136.25 yuan/ton. This week, the price of fluorite fluctuated and stabilized, the cost of Aluminium fluoride temporarily stabilized, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride remained.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite are fluctuating and stabilizing this week, the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials is stabilizing, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride remains. In the future, the cost will stabilize, the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride will weaken, and the price of Aluminium fluoride is expected to stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 16, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6230 yuan/ton, which was 1.74% lower than the reference average price of 6340 yuan/ton on June 12.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 16, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6250 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6250 yuan/ton on June 12. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid in the market fell this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. The willingness to stock downstream is not strong, so it is mainly wait-and-see. The market trading volume is poor and transactions are relatively low. As of June 16, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 6100 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 6000-6300 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 6200 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5550-6700 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus has been lowered this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is average, with an increase in market inquiries but relatively few transactions. Downstream enterprises are cautious in procurement and mainly focus on just in demand procurement. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, and the on-site inventory is still acceptable. The enterprise will not provide external quotations for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. As of now, the quotation is around 22800-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market showed a slight decline this week. Some mining companies in China that reported higher prices in the early stage have slightly lowered the price of phosphate ore, with a reduction of around 10-20 yuan/ton, driving the overall focus of the phosphate ore market to decline slightly. As of June 15, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 950-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the price of phosphoric acid has continued to decline this week, resulting in poor market trading conditions. At present, the market for raw material yellow phosphorus is unstable, and downstream demand is weak. The phosphoric acid market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will slightly adjust and operate in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has rebounded after a decline, and spot prices have rebounded in a narrow range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Last week, the high load situation in the ABS industry eased, and the burden reduction of enterprise maintenance increased. The current industry operating rate has been lowered to about 77%. The on-site spot supply is abundant, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly eased. The overall inventory has been depleted due to short supply and oversold, and the supply side has regained support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been poor recently. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to decline. In the near future, some devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance. Although the supply of acrylonitrile will slightly decrease in the short term, the overall situation is still relatively loose. In the medium to long term, the supply of acrylonitrile will continue to increase.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market was weak and volatile. The external market is still weak, downstream inquiries are cautious, and high-end offers and transactions are poor. The market lacks sustained positive boost, and the domestic butadiene market may continue to be weak in consolidation.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently declined after rising. International oil prices have fallen, costs are poor, and the styrene market maintains a bearish attitude towards the hot off-season. Spot demand is the main focus, and the expected short-term decline in the styrene market is the main.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate is generally at the off-season level. The manufacturer is cautious and wait-and-see. Last week, there were some restocking operations, but overall demand improvement is limited.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have weakened, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has slowed down, and the market supply of goods has begun to decrease. The pressure on on-site inventory has eased, but the demand side support is limited, maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern overall. It is expected that the ABS market may form a weak supply and demand trend in the off-season, with limited decline.