This week (9.15-9.22), the nitrile rubber market rose first and then fell, with a high point falling back. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the price of nitrile rubber was 15525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the high point of 15650 yuan/ton in the cycle, and remained unchanged on Friday. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have slightly increased, while the cost of nitrile rubber has slightly increased; Downstream inquiries are often made on demand, resulting in relatively flat market transactions. Recently, nitrile rubber plants such as Jinpu and Arantai Rubber have restarted, and the market supply has slightly increased compared to the previous period. The overall stability of enterprise quotations and slight adjustments in merchant quotations. As of September 22, the mainstream market report for Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China was 15100~15300 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Sibul nitrile 3365 is 14500~14700 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 15900~16100 yuan/ton.

This week (September 15th to September 22nd), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile slightly increased, while the cost of nitrile rubber increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the price of butadiene was 8747 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% from Friday’s 8660 yuan/ton; As of September 22nd, the price of acrylonitrile has increased by 1.21% from Monday’s 9300 yuan/ton at 9412 yuan/ton.

This week (9.15-9.22), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants is temporarily stable.

In the domestic nitrile rubber market, some brands have tight supply and strong prices, but downstream rubber product industries such as rubber hoses and automotive parts often purchase nitrile rubber on demand, resulting in a slightly stagnant trading atmosphere on the market.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is temporarily stable, and with the rise of nitrile prices, downstream inquiries are more on demand. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of September 21, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was set at 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with September 15, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 86 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.15-9.21), the overall domestic butanone market continued to rise slightly. Jin Jiulai is approaching, and the domestic butanone market as a whole is experiencing a warming up. Entering this week, the main butanone factories have performed well in exports, with tight supply on the butanone market and relatively low pressure on the supply side. In terms of cost, recently, the cost side of butanone has been operating steadily and strongly. Therefore, with the support of both the supply and demand side and the cost side, the focus of the butanone market continues to move slightly towards the high-end, with an upward trend of around 100-200 yuan/ton in the market. As of September 21st, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8700-9000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone exchange is mild, and downstream stocks are steadily prepared before the holiday. The butanone industry has a good mentality, and the overall market support is still good. The butanone data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate with high stability, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 20th, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 219000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.25% compared to last Friday (September 15th) and a decrease of 54.53% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has continued to decline. Recently, the spodumene concentrate market has been operating in a weak state, with a decline in the lithium carbonate market, weakened cost support, insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, and cautious procurement. The market trading atmosphere is light, and transactions are mainly long-term orders. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weakening.

Upstream lithium carbonate: The market for industrial grade lithium carbonate has recently declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on September 19th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 180000.00, a decrease of 14.29% compared to September 1st (210000.00), weakening support for the lithium hydroxide market.

Business Society Lithium Hydroxide Analysts believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market is currently operating in a weak state, with insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. In addition, the market demand is weak, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be in a weak state, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

In mid September, the domestic ABS market continued to rise, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12125 yuan/ton, a+11.75% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 91%. Compared to the previous period, there has been a narrow correction, and there is generally ample supply of goods on the market. However, the inventory position has significantly decreased, so the supply side has a strong support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials: In mid September, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was strong. The acrylonitrile market is relatively strong at a high level. Downstream devices in China are resuming work, with significant demand driven demand. Upstream goods are flowing smoothly, inventory has decreased to a low level, and propylene prices are driving up in line with the trend. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen, with stronger news support, boosting market confidence.

The price of butadiene also rose at a high level in the middle of the year. The downstream synthetic rubber market remains buoyant, with tight expectations for the supply of butadiene rubber, driving bullish sentiment in the spot market. Stable demand supports the price of butadiene. Sinopec’s factory prices continue to rise, and some businesses are reluctant to sell. The spot supply level is generally abundant, and it is expected that the butadiene market will enter a consolidation stage in the short term.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market has been rising recently. The international oil price has risen, the pure benzene market has followed suit, and cost support is good. The inventory of styrene ports in East China continues to be low. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are actively stocking up, market transactions are positive, and the styrene market is rising.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown a significant increase in stocking enthusiasm. Under the traditional demand peak season market, coupled with macroeconomic improvement, buyers have a certain upward mentality. Although the acceptance level of manufacturers has been affected after the price increase of ABS, the pre holiday stocking demand has been released, and the overall trading trend remains hot.

Future Market Forecast

In mid September, the upstream three materials of ABS strengthened, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plants are operating at a high level, with smooth shipments and significant market inventory digestion. The demand side support is relatively strong, and trading has fully entered the traditional consumption peak season and pre holiday stocking market. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to rise at a high level in the short term.

Product name: PVC

Latest price: 6260 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On September 18th, the PVC spot market fell, and the trading atmosphere on the market was light. In terms of raw materials, the factory prices of upstream calcium carbide have decreased. In terms of futures, futures opened higher and closed lower today. Overall, the trading sentiment in the PVC spot market is poor, with some manufacturers holding prices on the sidelines, while downstream and traders are cautious in purchasing. The overall transaction situation is average.

Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market may continue to fluctuate slightly.

Product name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (September 15th): 3050 yuan/ton

On September 15th, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride slightly decreased, dropping by 25 yuan/ton or 0.81% compared to September 14th. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3000 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800 yuan/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is around 2700 yuan/ton. The downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate markets have stabilized at high levels, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

In the future, domestic potassium chloride prices may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The average import market price of potassium chloride is around 3000 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the price of DOTP was 11600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% compared to September 7th, when the price of DOTP was 11850 yuan/ton. The price of isooctanol has decreased, PTA prices have fluctuated and increased, raw material cost support has weakened, downstream PVC market has declined, cost support has weakened, and demand for plasticizers has decreased. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and decreased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 14th was 12200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.72% compared to the price of 12940 yuan/ton on September 7th. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operation and restarted, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. The price of raw material propylene has decreased, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.

PTA prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on September 14th was 6386 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.20% compared to the PTA price of 6188.18 yuan/ton on September 7th. The PTA device unexpectedly reduced its load, the market supply stage tightened, the price of raw material acetic acid skyrocketed, PX prices fluctuated and increased, and the cost of PTA raw materials increased; With the arrival of the golden nine silver ten, downstream polyester demand has increased, and PTA demand has rebounded. The cost of raw materials has increased, and DOTP cost support still exists.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of raw materials, the prices of isooctanol fluctuate and fall, PTA prices fluctuate and rise, and the cost support for plasticizer products DOTP decreases; In terms of demand, the trading sentiment in the PVC spot market is poor, and actual purchases are cautious. Downstream buyers are more wait-and-see, with on-demand purchases being the main focus. PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The support for plasticizer demand has weakened. In the future, as cost support weakens and demand decreases, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 13th, the price of PET water bottle level has been stable, with an average price of 7300.00 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has been mainly stable, and the market supply and demand are balanced. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7300 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer profits and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On September 12, the rubber and plastic index was 708 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and a rise of 34.09% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of September 12, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 956 yuan/ton. Compared with September 6, 2023 (reference price of 882 yuan/ton), the price increased by 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.39%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (9.6 to 9.12), the domestic market for mid to high-end grade phosphate ore has seen an overall upward trend. Entering September, the downstream demand for domestic phosphorus ore is gradually recovering, and with the boost of demand, the phosphorus ore industry has a good mentality. The supply of mid to high-end grade ore in the phosphate ore field is tight, and the spot circulation is tight. With the support of both supply and demand, the focus of the phosphorus ore market has been constantly moving upward recently. The market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore has accumulated an increase of around 50-80 yuan/ton within seven days. As of September 12th, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is referenced around 900-980 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the phosphorus ore market is mild, and the rebound in downstream demand has boosted market confidence. The phosphorus ore data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly operate stronger, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly increased this week, with sulfuric acid prices rising from 312.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 316.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.28%. Weekend prices increased by 32.77% year-on-year.

Upstream market continues to rise, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is good

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market continues to rise, with sulfur prices rising from 1166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1176.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.86%. The weekend price increased by 4.44% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 10100.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices increased by 1.00% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market slightly increased, with market prices rising from 16700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 16866.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.00%. Weekend prices increased by 3.16% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late September, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at high levels, downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, there is a downward trend in the upstream sulfur market and insufficient cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is declining. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.