Price trend

In March, the domestic EVA market remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices fluctuated and consolidated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11933.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.56% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market tends to operate in a stalemate in March, with the supply side’s EVA enterprise load rapidly decreasing from 93% at the beginning of the month to around 78% by mid month. The average operating rate at the end of the month has rebounded to over 92%. However, the inventory pressure of the petrochemical plant is still not high, and there are some production and maintenance plans at the end of the month. At present, suppliers still have a willingness to support the market, and there is still support from EVA suppliers for spot goods in March.

From the demand side perspective, EVA terminal enterprises have generally started production within the month, and their stocking situation tends to lag behind. The logic of purchasing and consumption for just needs remains unchanged. Among them, there are relatively few new orders in traditional downstream areas such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires, and overall, the demand for goods is mainly in demand. Merchants are influenced by the manufacturer’s price hikes and actively raise prices to ship. As the end of the month approaches, some brand names are secretly dropping and selling goods. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have remained stable this month. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. After the industry load fell, it rebounded, and the inventory position of petrochemical plants is still not high. Coupled with expectations of supply tightening in the future, factory prices remain strong in the market. The poor consumption of traditional shoe materials and cables on the demand side has dragged down the overall trading heat. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price of EVA will continue to be dominated by consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 26th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent grade premium product in China, was 16066.67 yuan/ton. PMMA prices mainly increased in March, with an overall increase of 2.12%, around 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the upstream MMA prices are showing a strong trend, and PMMA has some support on the cost side. Downstream demand is still acceptable. Currently, the overall market supply and demand of PMMA is balanced, with manufacturers mainly operating at high prices.

2、 Market analysis

In March, PMMA prices were dominant, with an overall increase of 2.12%, around 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream market price is around 16000 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of the PMMA market in March was around 64%. The operating rate of the upstream factory MMA was around 48%. The supply of PMMA in March was significantly lower than last month, with a decrease in on-site operating rate and supply side. Recently, it was announced that the MMA and PMMA New Materials Forum will be held in Suzhou from June 6th to 7th, 2024 to discuss the policies and market trends of the MMA and PMMA new materials industry, the latest technology and commercialization progress, the cost and environmental competitiveness of different route technologies, and investment in new projects. MMA integration with upstream and downstream, optical grade PMMA and other key downstream product planning, PMMA downstream application development and recycling, etc.

In terms of cost, MMA prices in March saw a narrow upward trend. Currently, factories have shown signs of pricing, with a focus on maintaining prices. The overall market negotiation is stable, with normal inventory consumption and average downstream procurement enthusiasm. On demand procurement is the main focus. MMA production is expected to be around 102000 tons in March, a decrease of about 2.2% compared to last month, and an increase of about 8.9% compared to the same period last year. Currently, the overall market supply is balanced.

In terms of cost, the acetone market showed a stable and weak trend in March, with prices rebounding and rising in late March. Currently, the mainstream price of acetone in the market is around 7250-7300 yuan/ton, and port inventories decreased at the beginning of the week. Traders have a strong mentality of supporting prices, and the focus of market negotiations is currently high. The transaction atmosphere is good. In April, several phenolic ketone companies reported maintenance news, with maintenance time from the end of March to the end of April, which is about one month. During the maintenance period, the market supply will be reduced, and downstream PMMA will have some positive support on the cost side.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for PMMA is still acceptable, and the procurement atmosphere is positive. With the popularity of power vehicles, PMMA, as one of the raw materials for producing automotive parts, is widely used in projects such as car lights, windshields, and windows. Due to its high strength, toughness, and wear resistance, it can effectively improve the safety and comfort of cars. Since March, the demand for power vehicles has increased, and there has been a shortage of supply, leading to a surge in the price of PMMA.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that the current operating rate of the PMMA market is relatively stable, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. Many manufacturers are mainly inclined to raise prices, and downstream demand is constantly increasing. There is a slight shortage of upstream supply. Although some companies have started to expand production, it will take some time to officially release production capacity, and the cost side has a certain supporting effect. Therefore, it is expected that PMMA prices will maintain a narrow and strong trend in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, and on March 18, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to last week.

In terms of cost

At present, mining enterprises in Shanxi, Henan and other regions are actively promoting the resumption of mine production with the cooperation of the government. It is expected that mining production in the Shanxi region will gradually resume by the end of this month. If the domestic ore supply in Shanxi region improves, it will further promote the resumption of production of alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan.

In terms of supply and demand

The news of Yunnan aluminum enterprises resuming production has been announced, and the annual consumption increment of alumina driven by this resumption of production is about 1 million tons. Recently, mining production in Guizhou and Guangxi has gradually resumed, with over 1 million tons of alumina production capacity resuming in the region. The supply gap of alumina in the southwest region has not yet expanded, and spot prices are maintaining a tight balance. There are expectations for the release of production capacity on the demand side. On March 17th, relevant departments in Yunnan Province decided to release 800000 kilowatts of electricity load for the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. It is expected that the actual production capacity for this round of resumption will be around 400000 tons per year, and it is expected to be completed in mid April.

Post trend prediction

In recent times, the production capacity of alumina has been concentrated and released. Although downstream demand has been released ahead of schedule, the supply and demand have shown a surplus pattern, and the spot price of alumina continues to decline, seeking a bottom range. However, there is support on the cost side and limited downward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 850 yuan/ton on March 15th, and 816 yuan/ton on March 21st. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 3.92%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has fallen this week. At present, the trading volume in the ammonium sulfate market is sluggish, and downstream purchases are in high demand. There is a resistance to high prices and many transactions are made at low prices. Recently, the price of urea has weakened, coupled with the fact that the export market has not improved, which is bearish for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. As of March 21st, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 750-805 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 830-850 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the price trend of ammonium sulfate has recently declined. The demand side continues to be sluggish, with poor domestic and international market conditions. At present, it is difficult to find favorable market conditions, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate price will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

This week (3.13-3.20), the market trend of calcium formate fluctuated and declined. As of March 20th, the benchmark price of calcium formate at Shengyishe was 3732.50 yuan/ton. Compared with last week (3782.50 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32%. The reference price for the North China market is 3600 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the East China market is 3750 yuan/ton;

Cost side:

The market price of raw material formic acid is stable, with a benchmark price of 3300.00 yuan/ton for Shengyishe formic acid, which is unchanged from last week. Cost support is still acceptable.

Overall

The main reason for the slight decrease in the market price of calcium formate is that there is sufficient on-site spot supply, and the overall purchasing enthusiasm is weak due to the influence of terminal real estate. However, in the future, analysts from Business Society predict that as the price of calcium formate decreases, terminal market demand may recover, which will alleviate market supply and demand. In the short term, the price of calcium formate will remain stable.

Recently, the market price of acetonitrile has shown a significant downward trend. As of March 19th, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 9800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81 yuan/ton compared to last week (9880 yuan/ton). The fluctuation of market prices is mainly influenced by both supply and demand, showing a certain degree of instability.

In terms of demand:

The overall sentiment in the acetonitrile market has weakened this week, with the most important being that demand has not followed up as expected, and overall supplier shipments are still slow. In response to market changes, suppliers have lowered their prices. Although downstream demand has not improved significantly during this period, the main reason is that downstream pesticide production has not increased significantly, and some factories are still digesting early inventory.

In terms of supply:

Due to overcapacity in the early stage, which is also a major factor in suppressing market price increases, the inventory of enterprises remains sufficient in the short term; In addition, after the increase in production of synthetic method enterprises, the prices of raw materials such as acetic acid and synthetic ammonia have remained low and fluctuated, and the short-term increase in external sales is also limited.

Overall

In the early stage, the market mainly relied on supply reduction to drive price increases, but currently, the favorable factors in the market are not favorable. Especially the slow growth of downstream demand will put pressure on the price of acetonitrile. Another reason is that after a significant increase in prices in the early stages, intermediaries have a low enthusiasm for replenishing acetonitrile, mainly relying on wait-and-see. This move is affecting the overall trend of the market.

In summary, analysts from Business Society predict that the market price of acetonitrile may continue to decline this week due to multiple factors.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from March 8th to 15th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 781 yuan/ton to 9731 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.51% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.25%. The domestic price of cyclohexanone is on a wait-and-see basis, and the recent consolidation of raw material pure benzene has strengthened the cost support. The spot supply of cyclohexanone is stable, and downstream demand is mostly followed up. Due to a slight rebound in the pure benzene market, the cyclohexanone industry has stopped falling and stabilized.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: domestic pure benzene prices are relatively high. The domestic production of pure benzene has limited changes, and the downstream demand for pick-up is stable. However, the number of imported goods on board has increased, and port inventories have slightly accumulated. As of March 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8508.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The average weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 68.67%, and the weekly production is 104100 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The sales of caprolactam and downstream PA6 chips have improved, and the market has stabilized. However, there are still concerns about the supply of caprolactam in the later stage of the market, and the polymerization factory mainly purchases raw materials on demand. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene will operate in a volatile manner, with relatively stable cost support. There is not much spot supply of cyclohexanone, and downstream demand is uncertain. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.45% compared to the reference average price of 6630 yuan/ton on March 8th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6683 yuan/ton, which is a 0.75% increase compared to the reference average price of 6633 yuan/ton on March 8th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphate market has shown mixed performance this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support and a slight decrease in the price of thermal phosphoric acid. At present, the demand for thermal phosphoric acid in the market is relatively light, and the transaction atmosphere is not good. This week, the demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market has increased, and the trading atmosphere is good. Manufacturers and distributors have raised their prices. Driven by demand, the operating rate of wet process phosphoric acid has increased.

As of March 14th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6000-7450 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the focus of the yellow phosphorus market continued to decline, and the trading situation on the market was average. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, but new orders have limited transaction volume. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, demand is average, and there are many cases of underpricing procurement. It is mainly wait-and-see, and the procurement is more cautious. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is relatively light. As of March 14th, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the overall domestic phosphate ore market is in a stable and consolidating operation after a slight increase. In some regions of China, mining companies have continued to maintain previous prices, and the overall market adjustment is limited. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and the recovery of the end market is relatively slow, with little pressure on the supply side of phosphate ore. As of March 14th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the current performance of the phosphoric acid market is inconsistent, with a strong trend in wet process phosphoric acid and a weak trend in hot process phosphoric acid, and the market follows the trend of raw materials and demand. It is expected that the short-term price of thermal phosphoric acid will continue to weaken and consolidate, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid will continue to rise.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market trend of sodium acetate trihydrate was narrow and weak this week, with a price of 2383 yuan/ton on March 13th, a decrease of 0.69% compared to February 13th.

In terms of raw material soda ash: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic light soda ash price on March 13th was 2046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.65% compared to February 13th. The supply of spot soda ash has started to fluctuate at a high level, and the inventory of enterprises continues to accumulate. In terms of downstream demand, procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. The price of soda ash is operating in a weak market.

Regarding raw material acetic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic acetic acid price on March 13th was 3115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.05% compared to February 13th. The operating rate of acetic acid enterprises is relatively high. In March, acetic acid manufacturers have no maintenance plans, and the market supply of goods may be mainly high. Downstream product demand is weak, and there is limited purchasing of acetic acid. There is a lack of favorable conditions on site, and the market price of acetic acid has been lowered one after another.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the overcapacity and price decline of upstream products have led to a weakening of the price of sodium acetate trihydrate, and it is expected that sodium acetate trihydrate will operate in a weak market in the future.

This week, the market for ethyl acrylate has been fluctuating and weakening. There is also inventory pressure in the ethyl acrylate market, which provides limited support for the actual cost of ethyl acrylate. The fundamental stalemate in the market continues, and the supply and demand structure in various regions of China remains stable. There is not much change in enterprise equipment. As of March 12th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9480 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to last Monday (9505 yuan/ton).

Supply side

At present, there is no significant fluctuation in the acrylic acid production equipment, and the inventory of spot supply is currently at a limited level. This week, the production capacity utilization rate of the acrylic acid industry was around 70%, a decrease of -0.34% compared to last week. The price of acrylic acid in the market remained stable and slightly increased, with lower end prices falling slightly. The weekly average price increased by 1.19% month on month; The weekly average price of propylene in Shandong fell by 0.23%, and the overall market slightly declined;

Demand side

The downstream acrylic resin, coating and other industries of ethyl acrylate mainly maintain rigid demand consumption, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries increases with the quotation of ethyl acrylate; The main focus is on maintaining fixed consumption of adhesive tape master rolls, and the procurement volume is mainly focused on small orders with a high demand; Acrylic acid lotion industry maintains rigid demand procurement.

Overall

According to the analysis of the follow-up of the upstream and downstream chain market trends and the transmission progress of market influencing factors, the current market situation of ethyl acrylate may still be affected by the overall weak situation as an intermediate, and the stalemate situation may still require clear assistance and stimulation.