Due to unique characteristics of the chemical industry chain, chemicals futures trend is relatively crude oil futures trend is indirect and obvious lag. It is not inconsistent with the two movements is not reasonable, especially in the crude oil into the trend of shock stage, often chemicals out of the “personal independence of conduct”.

Oil prices have recently been basically optimistic or pessimistic sentiment based on market of the November 30th OPEC protocol can reach the limit. Iran is a major obstacle limiting protocol. Although Iran did not yield to respond to the proposal, but the other OPEC countries to give Iran hinted at the November 30th OPEC conference production flexibility is approaching, OPEC may be more close to consensus. Long and oil sources said that most of the OPEC countries to give flexibility to the production of Iran, OPEC moved closer to the first production agreement to 2008.

Secondly, the recent part of the stability of chemical products objectively

At the end of November OPEC production agreement, the price is also very difficult to break through the current price range, the lower limit of the interval just blocked down; to improve the fundamentals of crude oil still pile up in excess of requirement is relatively weak, the annual demand growth forecast is currently at 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day of crude oil is expected to return to the balance of supply and demand postponed to the second half of 2017.

Last week (11.21-11.25) the overall stability of chemicals market continues to rise. Last week (11.21-11.25) prices rose significantly in the varieties are: coal chemical products, plastic industry chain, PA6, polyester staple fiber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, fertilizer, chlor alkali chemical products prices fell significantly; products are: TDI, pure MDI, propylene oxide, hard foam polyether, PTA, potassium chloride, melamine, chlorine, fluorine chemical chloromethane and nickel materials etc..

Analysis of chemical industry chain can be found, the crude oil is the most important chemical energy sources of raw materials, petrochemical industry production line, involving a wide range, many products in the domestic commodity futures market, crude oil futures and related chemicals, there are several PTA, PP, LLDPE, methanol, asphalt, rubber etc..

Furthermore, the guiding role of national policy should not be ignored

This year, crude oil has been ups and downs, various experts pointing country, crude oil industry to bring uncertainty concerns remarkable. Recently there are many chemical incidents, such as chemical enterprises cross-border mergers and acquisitions, chemical giant BASF OPEC, the accidental explosion of production uncertainty… The development of chemical industry is much like the rope puppet, if you hear what the experts finalized chemical enterprises in the future for a long period of time to. That you can be such a “wild Herman” laugh.

Because of the possibility to understand the incident because of this and most of the volatility, we can only judge the modest short-term trend.

Shallowly: development trend of chemical industry in 2017 and related analysis

Near the end of the year, we compared the market and motivation, to observe the rough, development trend of chemical industry in 2017 were analyzed and suggestions on it.

From the relevant data, recently, while the international crude oil prices hit since mid September its worst week, the other side is the domestic chemicals futures closed sharply yang.

First of all, crude oil is the main reason but not blind.

please review: as you know, since the chemical industry as human civilization is the second industry, with its huge production and conversion potential, all manufacturing industry value. Known as the “lifeline” of the national economy are not a little vague. The inevitable product of the chemical industry in most chemical products of raw materials is “demanding” economy oriented. As with most chemical industry as raw materials of crude oil, the change of pulse like, constantly affects the hearts of chemical industry.

The crude oil on the chemical industry as a “baton”

Crude oil is the source of all chemicals, chemical raw material cost control, overall, the price of crude oil, determines the operating range of chemicals.

Of course, everything is not absolute. Can not set phrase. Furthermore, although from a cost perspective, the price of crude oil and chemicals are related, but because of differences in pricing and fundamentals, effect of crude oil on the chemicals are not the same.

Since September, especially the International Energy Forum held in OPEC and non OPEC on freezing production problems, resulting in the production is expected to boost the rise of oil prices, NYMEX crude oil since August 2nd cumulative increase of more than 16%, once again washed off the $50 mark.

Change constantly in chemical industry, can not be generalized

international crude oil to rise again, the market for agreement to cut output response is good, but the new material market supply price is still narrow, fear of the cost of support has been weakened. At present, the domestic PP petrochemical devices to maintain normal production, drawing ratio remained at 27%-30%. The demand side, just need to stabilize the market, the woven industry operating rate remained at around 65%, industry co operating rate of 64%, the operating rate of BOPP industry to maintain a good, but the overall PP from upstream, midstream and downstream, from the current point of view is from the low to pick up the.

Based on the inventory in November in the middle and lower reaches of the observed data, the linear remained in a tight situation, PP from October on supply and demand has started to get some loose from the tight. It is suggested that companies strengthen the petrochemical enterprise sales policy, the actual market supply and demand situation, the international crude oil futures and polypropylene attentiondegrees.

2016 domestic epoxy resin, the trend of ups and downs, the second half of the market situation is better than the first half of the first half of the show, driven by raw materials xianyanghouyi trend, the overall expected finite interval.

(epoxy antistatic principle)

In January, February by the Spring Festival holidays, the market downturn in March, a long time, in April by the double raw materials market rebound upward influence, the obvious signs, the highest price reached 13500 yuan / ton; May, June, the downstream market ushered in the off-season, down to the level of the beginning of the year 12700 yuan / ton, the market trend of epoxy resin is weak; in July the market has not improved, August opening price model, market volatility rose at the end of 10, signs of a slight decline, low-cost supply decreased gradually at the beginning of November due to soaring 900 yuan to styrene, epoxy resin with prices up to 14000 yuan / ton.

Analysis of the 2016 1-11 month trend of epoxy resin:

Since October, with the price of gasoline is strong, LPG substitution advantage disappeared, and continued to close the Eurasian naphtha arbitrage window, naphtha spreads from early October rebounded to $35 / ton at 80 U.S. dollars / ton, was stronger than that of crude oil. But the $80 / ton crack spread is still in recent years, the same period in the history of the late fourth quarter lows, naphtha prices will also be in a seasonally strong, is expected to spread naphtha cracking still continue to uplink space.

Asian PX- naphtha spreads from the beginning of August the highest $430 / ton down to the current $350 / ton, the profit of PX processing was a squeeze, close to last year’s average price level. Although the end of the four quarter Asian PX supply pressure is still large, but in high load and the cost of PTA support, PX profit is unlikely to continue being squeezed, is expected in 11 – December PX- naphtha spreads will remain 330 to 350 U.S. dollars / ton range.

Tight supply just need strong support

From the supply side, in October, Hengli itsumori, MITSUBISHI PTA lead to centralized maintenance of tight supply, to the inventory of about 120 thousand tons, by the end of October, PTA social stock fell to a low level of 1 million 400 thousand tons. Although 10 months late maintenance devices continue to restart, but after entering in November, 1 million 500 thousand tons of Tongkun, Sanfangxiang (600370, shares) 1 million 200 thousand tons of equipment both appear to break down and drop device Hanbang negative, which supply relaxed situation changed, PTA initially expected in November will go to 30 thousand – 50 thousand tons of inventory. At the end of November, Zhuhai BP110 million tons of equipment maintenance plan, without considering the other device in case of failure, PTA is expected in December will remain in a tight balance between supply and demand.

From the polyester production profit and inventory levels, as of November 15th, the average profit in the production of polyester of 440 yuan / ton, hit a new high for the year; finished goods inventory level for about 7 days, significantly lower than last year’s 17 days of inventory. Therefore, the production of polyester business indicators are significantly better than last year, and during the G20 meeting in polyester plant has a large area of work, is expected in the fourth quarter of polyester load will remain high, just need strong support for raw materials.

In summary, crude oil adjustment basically in place, the short-term is expected to rebound, naphtha prices will remain strong, PX profit space is compressed, PTA to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand, to maintain the high polyester load just need to support the formation of the raw materials, and the current PTA spot processing fee is in 400 – 450 yuan / ton low level. We believe that, at this stage should not continue to watch PTA, recommended to do more dips, admission reference interval of 4770 yuan / ton – 4720.

27 India castor oil WaiPan prices continue to rise, the domestic market demand of castor oil is also OK, sales in general, inventory is low, the impact of declining by exchange rate, some manufacturers began to raise prices, but the overall price stability of castor oil. Castor oil is quoted in the mainstream 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

In December 27th, Guangzhou south of castor oil price stability, factory sales, the market in general, low inventory, disk prices, a refined product price 11600 yuan / ton. Xinji City Han Sen plant oil, castor oil prices remain stable, the price of a product of refined net 11600 yuan / ton, factory sales, less inventory, normal production. Wenshui the Yellow River County Oil Company Limited industrial grade refined castor oil price is 11300 yuan / ton, manufacturers of normal production, sales, price stability. Nanjing Qianyue chemical refining level of castor oil price stability, price is 9600 yuan / ton, the domestic castor oil price stability, sales in general. Zibo Zhoucun Ming Tung Chemical castor oil price stability, industrial grade castor oil (grade one) ex factory price of 11000 yuan / ton (including tax), the weak market demand, sales, inventory amount.

Recently, the domestic manufacturers of castor oil sales, the weak market demand, the exchange rate fell because the outer disk prices, most manufacturers to price stability oriented, market outlook is expected to stabilize the price of castor oil.

recently, the domestic market price rising trend of p-xylene, the recent domestic paraxylene starts into about 7, domestic paraxylene product supply normal, the domestic market price of 6900 yuan / ton.

In December 27th the United States p-xylene market closing price steady, closing price of US $790-800 / ton FOB harbor. Europe p-xylene market closed, the previous day’s closing price of $764-766 / ton FOB Rotterdam.

In December 28th China Sinopec Sales Company of p-xylene price stability, operation of the PX device manufacturers Luoyang petrochemical production capacity of 225 thousand tons, output 600 tons, the price of 6900 yuan / ton, go off normal. Sinopec Huabei sales company of paraxylene prices stable, the executive price 6900 yuan / ton, the operation of Qilu Petrochemical device manufacturers go smoothly, the normal pin. Sinopec East China sales company of p-xylene prices stable, the price is 6900 yuan / ton, Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining and execution, generally go off. Sinopec Southern China branch paraxylene prices stable, the implementation of 6900 yuan / ton, Hainan petrochemical equipment manufacturers operating stability, go off normal.

The recent run of Yangzi petrochemical equipment running smoothly, Zhenhai Refining device is normal, normal operation of Jinling Petrochemical device, dragon aromatics plant has been in parking, the p-xylene spot supply is normal, the recent run parts of Asia PX maintenance device is stable, regular supply shocks of recent oil price movements, PX disk prices, the latest closing price of 859 U.S. dollars / CFR Chinese tons, is expected to post p-xylene market price or will rise slightly.

t is reported that the recent domestic PA market focus continues to decline, the real single atmosphere to remain in the doldrums. The face of weak end demand, raw material benzene all fall sharply, the negative impact of market aggravate the situation, the spot lack of interest, mental stress, and low price.

In December 28th, the new Yang Technology Factory neighbor phthalic anhydride offer down 100 yuan / ton 8100 yuan / ton cash; Changzhou Red mixed method of phthalic anhydride plant normal operation, neighbor phthalic anhydride quotation 8100-8150 yuan / ton, the hybrid method quotation 8000 yuan / ton; Tongling organic chemical factory price reference neighbor 8050-8150 yuan / PA ton. Southern China Guangdong area DOP market, finishing a narrow range, low level of supply of raw materials in stock, steady, still support the dimension of price, but the downstream demand limited follow-up, the real single atmosphere slightly pale. At present, the market reference price of 8600-8750 yuan / ton around to offer more high-end, heard some of the low price in 8650 yuan / ton to around. The normal operation of Zhejiang Weboo DOP device, the spot is less, the current foreign manufacturers DOP price 8600-8700 yuan / ton, the real single talk. Dongying Yimei chemical annual production capacity of 100 thousand tons of DOP plant in normal operation, tight supply, DOP foreign manufacturers today offer 8350 yuan / ton. Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride plant all the normal operation, the spot is less, manufacturers today quoting neighbor phthalic anhydride implementation of 8000 yuan / ton, the mixed anhydride method offer 7900 yuan / ton. The north area of Tianjin DOP market trend Yindie, downstream demand weak, few inquiries and purchase, and double raw materials are weak, mentality pressure is also increasing, at present, to discuss the market price 8350-8400 yuan / ton.

Market outlook, expected demand outlook subject is 8000 yuan / ton line is becoming increasingly apparent, in addition to the lack of market outlook is expected, the market is expected to still lower space.

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