According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices dropped significantly in December. The market price of sulfuric acid dropped from 302 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 278 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.95%, and the month end price fell by 4.69% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have dropped significantly this month, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are relatively low.

Cost side: Sulfur market fluctuates and rises

From a cost perspective, the ex factory price of sulfur in East China fluctuated and increased in December. The price of sulfur increased from 1060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1093.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.14%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 13.91% year-on-year. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

On the demand side: Downstream market drops significantly

From the demand side, the market for monoammonium phosphate experienced a significant decline in December. The price dropped from 3500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3370 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.71%, and the month end price increased by 4.73% year-on-year. The downstream market of sulfuric acid has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early January, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has significantly declined, and downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened. Upstream sulfur prices are showing a downward trend, with weakened cost support. The sulfuric acid analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5062.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.54%.

Upstream methanol situation: In December, the domestic methanol market first rose and then fell. In terms of supply, due to the impact of the cold wave, most parts of the country experienced a cliff like cooling, leading to a significant increase in daily consumption of power plants and an increase in terminal stage purchases. However, downstream acceptance of high priced market coal is limited, and transportation continues to be mainly based on long-term contract coal; The cold wave weather has to some extent boosted the consumption of electric coal, and there are still expectations of an increase in daily consumption of power plants on the basis of high levels. Some terminal demand purchases with insufficient coal reserves continue to be released. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the domestic methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support. Downstream demand remains strong, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8033.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.84%, and the weekend price increased by 21.72% year-on-year. On December 25th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 40.95, an increase of 0.17 points from yesterday, a decrease of 61.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 35.96% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen fluctuations in their quotations and low inventory this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6895.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6928.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.47%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.10% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9800 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.89%. The weekend price has increased by 6.19% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In late December, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 18th to 25th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16000 yuan/ton to 15900 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.62% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.75%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.74%. The domestic aggregated MDI market has experienced a narrow decline, with temperatures plummeting in many regions. The terminal market has been hindered by construction, resulting in a significant decrease in demand follow-up capabilities. The quoted prices of traders have slightly declined, maintaining their willingness to ship.

On the supply side, the 400000 ton/year MDI plant of Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. will begin maintenance on November 15th, and the 800000 ton/year plant of the second phase will start shutdown maintenance on December 3rd. The two sets of plants will undergo maintenance for about 50 days each. Chongqing BASF will conduct maintenance on December 25th, lasting about a month. Chongqing BASF’s 400000 ton/year plant is expected to undergo maintenance on December 25th, lasting about a month. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, pure benzene as the raw material has seen a narrow upward trend in the domestic pure benzene market. International crude oil futures have continued to rise, providing positive support to the domestic pure benzene market in terms of mentality. Downstream styrene has seen a significant increase, and some downstream units have been put into operation as scheduled, resulting in a slight increase in demand compared to the previous period. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 7062.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market is weak and consolidating. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 10462.50 yuan/ton. The cost impact of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the downstream demand side has seen a decrease in operating load, especially in the spraying and pipeline industries where transaction power is limited, resulting in a weak market atmosphere. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the supply side is relatively stable, and the overall follow-up of the downstream demand side is limited. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts predict that domestic aggregated MDI may continue to narrow down.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 776 yuan/ton on December 18th, and 806 yuan/ton on December 22nd. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market increased by 3.86%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has risen this week. At present, domestic demand is stable, and a small amount of foreign orders are being followed up. Downstream demand is still acceptable, purchase on demand, dealers replenish at low prices, and have a resistance to high prices. As of December 22, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 750-780 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 780-850 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the price trend of ammonium sulfate has been stable and rising recently. The supply side is stable, while the demand side needs to be released. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%.

The prices quoted by domestic activated carbon manufacturers are generally stable, with some being weak. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the market is not moving fast, with orders being the main focus and transactions falling short of expectations. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The performance of the activated carbon market is weak, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has been fluctuating and weakening, with a concentrated decline in spot prices last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 17th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.36% from the beginning of the month and a weekly decrease of 5.14%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of raw material ethylene, the contraction of domestic spot circulation eased at the end of last month, and the current favorable situation is exhausted. Due to the lower intention of downstream industries to purchase goods at the end of the year, the flow of goods on site is not smooth. At the same time, distant oil prices fluctuated and fell, while ethylene fell due to various bearish factors. It is expected that the future market trend may continue to be weak;

Although the vinyl acetate industry is still in the traditional off-season, there has been no significant increase in demand. But recently, the supply has been tight, and the actual price of on-site trading has been high. Manufacturers and merchants have maintained stable pricing. Upstream glacial acetic acid and ethylene fluctuated, with overall support being mediocre. Last week, the market for EVA raw materials fell and remained stable, providing moderate support for the EVA market.

In terms of supply:

Since early December, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises has continued to rise. The industry’s operating rate has increased from around 80% at the beginning of the month to the current 87%, with weekly production increasing simultaneously and market supply remaining abundant. The mentality of the petrochemical plant is weak, and the factory price has been lowered. The maintenance plan for future equipment is insufficient, and the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level. The overall inventory position of EVA is on the rise, and merchants tend to offer at a discounted price. Overall, recent EVA suppliers have shown poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the demand side of EVA showed weak performance. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials have limited impact on the driving force of trading, and the purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected. On exchange trading is concentrated on low-end offers, and the logic of buyers buying on dips remains unchanged. Lack of market buying sentiment and resistance to the return of high priced goods.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market has been consolidating after a decline last week. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has returned to a high level, and downstream demand is weak. Market confidence has been hit, and the profitability of enterprises has significantly declined. At present, some petrochemical plants have reduced their order operations, but there is no expectation of supply side contraction or signal of increased consumption in the future, making it difficult for the market to change the bearish guidance situation. It is expected that the EVA market will remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the load situation of enterprises.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week, with a price of 3080.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.53%. On December 18th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2900 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2900 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 3000-3100 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2850 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly declined this week, dropping from 7550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7530.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.93% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5450.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.46%. The weekend price fell by 6.84% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly declined recently (12.12-12.18). On December 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6510 yuan/ton, while on December 12th, the benchmark price was 6550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%.

International crude oil prices fluctuate narrowly, with short-term support for toluene cost

Recently (12.12-12.18), international crude oil prices have fluctuated narrowly, providing short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of December 15th, the WTI02 contract closed at $72.09 per barrel and settled at $71.78 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $76.91 per barrel and settled at $76.55 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of mid December, the construction of refinery facilities nationwide is around 70%.

PX starts temporarily stabilizing toluene and obtaining necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has fluctuated, and the external PX price has not changed much. As of the 14th, the closing price in Asia is 944-946 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 969-971 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene units in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen first and then increased, and the trend of crude oil is fluctuating. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

External prices rebound, toluene supply pressure continues

On the one hand, with the rebound of crude oil prices over the weekend, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded. As of December 15th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 823-825 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, domestic production of toluene continues to slightly increase, and port inventory pressure continues, resulting in a slight increase in pressure on the supply side of toluene. As of mid December, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 75%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 41000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 14000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating and consolidating, and although the cost support for toluene has rebounded, the overall trend is weak; The downstream mixed blending of toluene and other industries have weak demand support, coupled with a continued increase in supply in the short term, and it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate weakly in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of December 15th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7150 yuan/ton, with a narrow upward trend compared to the same period last week. This week, the price has increased by 0.23%, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has slightly increased, with the mainstream price around 7100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% compared to the same period last week. The mainstream manufacturer’s quotation range is maintained at around 7000 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand. The willingness to stock up is not strong, the demand is average, and upstream support is weak.

Chemical index: On December 14th, the chemical index was 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable and the price fluctuation range is limited.