According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 29, the average price of domestic general transparent premium PMMA was 16925.00 yuan / ton. In May, PMMA maintained a stable operation, with a price increase of 1.8% compared with the beginning of the month. In May, the PMMA market rose in a narrow range, and the market operated stronger.

In the first ten days of June, the average price of PMMA, a domestic general transparent grade premium product, was 16925.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped goods to give away profits. Compared with last week, the price remained unchanged. The price of PMMA was mainly stable, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the immediate need for procurement was the main thing. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable and the supply side was normal.

In the middle of June, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16875.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped goods to give up profits. Compared with the price last week, the price of PMMA remained unchanged. The overall supply and demand were balanced. It was just needed to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable and the supply side was normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on June 23, the rubber and plastic index was 781 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 26.32% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 47.92% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In late June, the average price of PMMA, a domestic general transparent premium product, was 16925.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped and gave orders for profits. Compared with the price last week, the price of PMMA remained unchanged. The overall supply and demand were balanced, and just needed to be purchased. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable, the supply side was normal, and the rubber and plastic index: on June 17, the rubber and plastic index was 800 points, It was the same as yesterday, 24.53% lower than the highest point 1060 in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and 51.52% higher than the lowest point 528 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Rubber and plastic index: on June 28, the rubber and plastic index was 770 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 27.36% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 45.83% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the PMMA analyst of business agency, the white carbon black market is expected to run smoothly in July, with a small fluctuation range. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

On June 28, the price trend of domestic fluorite was temporarily stable. The average price of domestic fluorite was 2661.11 yuan / ton. The fluorite trading and investment in the site was general. The mine was generally started under the influence of environmental supervision. The fluorite raw ore price remained high, and the flotation cost of the concentrator was still supported. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market remained low. The recent commencement of fluorite units in the North was relatively normal, and the site supply was slightly tight, so the fluorite price in the site was temporarily stable. The mainstream price of fluorite in the field negotiation is stable. The delivery price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2650-2750 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2750 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2650-2750 yuan / ton. The market trend of downstream refrigerants is low, and the field reaction is that the supply of fluorite is tight. It is expected that the domestic fluorite price trend will be stable temporarily.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a shock trend of continuous decline and continuous rebound in that week (20th-26th): the mainstream market in the domestic market reported about 12700 yuan / ton on the 20th and 12776 yuan / ton on the 26th, up 0.6%. Among them, the highest weekly price was 12776 yuan / ton on the 26th, and the lowest was 12510 yuan / ton on the 22nd, with a maximum amplitude of 2.13%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022

From the macro perspective of industrial analysis, on June 24, the price of international crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.62/barrel, up US $3.35 or 3.2%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.12/barrel, up US $3.07 or 2.8%. The market has returned to fundamentals, and the supply price of crude oil is under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market is worried about the economic recession, and the oil price is still fluctuating in the range.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: the Southeast Asian production area has a large supply. The output of Yunnan production area in China has increased. Although the output of Hainan has not been fully cut, the cutting rate has continued to increase and the output has increased. The local thick latex price has continued to be suppressed. The global supply volume is unfavorable to the price support of raw rubber. Inventory: Currently, the import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory is reduced by a small margin. Demand side: the operating rate of the enterprise has not increased significantly. It is reported that the operating rate of all steel tires decreased on a weekly basis last week, while that of semi steel tires rebounded. The inventory of finished tires is high, and the purchase of raw rubber has not been greatly improved; The production and sales volume of downstream vehicles increased month on month: according to the data released by the passenger Federation, 416000 passenger vehicles were retailed from June 13 to 19, a year-on-year increase of 39%, a month on week increase of 19%, a year-on-year increase of 55%, and the increase in sales volume consumed a certain amount of tire inventory; Except for tires, the overall construction of Tianjiao products enterprises is generally started at present.

Future forecast: at present, the domestic and foreign supply side continues to increase, and the operating rate of downstream manufacturers is general. However, the domestic automobile promotion policy has boosted the natural rubber futures, and the production and sales have rebounded month on month. It is expected that the natural rubber market is more likely to continue to fluctuate in the range.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 24, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. The next week, lithium iron phosphate was running smoothly. The price fluctuation range was not large. You Gang mainly needed to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere was general. The overall market was running smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply of goods was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. It was mainly arranged and delivered by contract customers. The number of new orders was limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, The price remains at a high level, and the upstream is still at a high level. The price continues to rise. The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains. At present, the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton.

Upstream lithium carbonate: as of June 23, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily this week. On June 23, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 460000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 19, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton). On June 23, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.63% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 19, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton).

Chemical commodity index: on June 24, the chemical index was 1174 points, down 7 points from yesterday, down 16.14% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 96.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the analysts of business club, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate in the short term is dominated, and the fluctuation range is limited. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic cocoon and silk market price continued to rise this week (6.20-6.24), maintaining a strong pattern. As of June 23, the average price of dried cocoons was 137000 yuan / ton, up 1.48% from the beginning of the week and down 1.79% year-on-year. The average market price of raw silk was 417962.50 yuan / ton, up 0.60% from the beginning of the week and down 0.49% year-on-year.

This week, the prices of raw silk contracts on the electronic disk continued to rise, breaking the previous high in June. In the spot market, the worrying situation of the supply side has stimulated the bullish expectation of the market, and the silk reeling enterprises have strengthened their price support and price increase behavior. However, the downstream domestic purchase intention is still general, and the spot price is still generally stable.

It is necessary to pay attention to the flood situation in Guangxi in the near future. From May to June, there were many torrential rains in many places in Guangxi, with the highest rainfall in the same period in 43 years. There were heavy rains in 77 towns and townships in 18 counties (districts) of 7 cities in the region. Many places, including Hechi, Baise and Liuzhou, were the key areas for cocoon production in the region. The flood disaster had a great impact on local daily life and mulberry breeding. Houses and mulberry gardens were flooded, and the quality and quantity of cocoons were expected to be greatly damaged, At the same time, the follow-up post disaster reconstruction work also needs to spend a lot of time and energy. It can be predicted that the cocoon output will decline to a certain extent compared with the same period.

After the downturn affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, the recovery level of the downstream demand side is still worrying. Although production and sales have recovered since June, and terminal construction has also rebounded, the peak demand season has passed, and the recovery height of terminal demand in the fourth quarter may still be limited. Due to the limited height of recovery under expectation, on the premise that the logic of the front-end cost side cannot be reversed, there is a risk that the downstream demand will not be able to follow at a certain time point. At that time, the negative feedback of the industry may lead to a more obvious weakening of raw silk prices. Therefore, it is necessary to consider whether the enthusiasm of terminal goods preparation will be hit by the rising cost price. At that time, negative price feedback may occur, resulting in the callback of raw silk price.

According to the analysts of the business agency, the national spring cocoon collection and drying work is basically coming to an end, the cocoon is rising, and the raw silk is rising. The trend of cocoon and silk is strong, and the direction has not changed in the recent period. The overall bullish expectation of the future market is large. At present, the overall trend continues to be dominated by short-term high-level adjustment. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand in the later period can continue to be significantly improved.

With the gradual withdrawal of low-cost viscose staple fiber supply from the market, the average price of viscose staple fiber used by yarn mills has reached 15000 yuan / ton. Due to the rising cost of raw materials, most yarn mills have recently started to increase the transaction price of cotton yarn by 50-200 yuan / ton. The price of cotton yarn is at a high level. As of June 22, 2022, the average ex factory price of (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 19233 yuan / ton, which is steadily rising, up 60 yuan / ton from yesterday’s price.

The upstream raw material viscose staple fiber market is stable, the cost is supported, the price is high, and the manufacturer’s quotation is about 16000; The demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, with average trading and investment. Due to the rapid rise in the price of viscose staple fiber, the rise in various varieties of yarn is limited. At the same time, the operating rate of circular mills and grey cloth mills has always remained low, and some yarn factories have limited or stopped production. Business analysts predict that the power of cotton yarn price rise is insufficient, or the high level is stable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, in mid June (11-20), the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a trend of continuous decline first and then continuous weak fluctuation: the mainstream market in the domestic market was about 13090 yuan / ton on the 11th and 12700 yuan / ton on the 20th, a decrease of 2.98%. Among them, the highest price in this ten day period is 13090 yuan / ton on the 11th, and the lowest price is 12700 yuan / ton on the 20th.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022

On the macro level, on June 20, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $108.12/barrel, an increase of US $0.13 or 0.12%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $114.13/barrel, up US $1.01 or 0.89%. Oil prices rebounded slightly on Monday, the market gradually returned to rationality, and tight supply still dominated, overshadowing the impact of the slowdown in global economic growth.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: Southeast Asia has a large amount of supply. The rubber tapping in Yunnan is normal, and the output increases. The output in Hainan is increasing gradually, but not significantly. In addition, the local thick latex price continues to be suppressed, the water price difference between Yunnan and Hainan is narrowed, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is generally weaker. Inventory: Currently, the import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory is reduced by a small margin. Demand side: the data shows that the operating rate of China’s all steel tire sample enterprises last week was 61.70%, with a month on month increase of 14.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.77%. Although the enterprises started relatively well in the middle of the year, the order volume was limited, the finished product inventory was high, and the purchase volume of raw rubber had not been greatly improved; The production and sales volume of downstream vehicles increased month on month, which will consume a certain amount of tire inventory, but the continuous growth is not strong; The overall product enterprises started generally, and the de stocking of products may be driven, but the sustainability is still not very optimistic.

Future forecast: the macro policy is good, the consumption policy is frequent, but there is still a certain time lag between the implementation and acceptance, and the goods circulation conditions are improved; The output of new rubber increased, the import volume was small, and the spot inventory of natural rubber continued to be low; The inventory of finished tire products is high, mainly consumed in the short term, the operating rate of the enterprise is general, and the purchase of raw materials is limited. It is expected that with the continuous increase of production and sluggish downstream demand, the short-term natural rubber shock is likely to be weak.

Cobalt prices fell slowly this week

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the decline of cobalt Market slowed down this week, and the cobalt price fell violently. As of June 20, the cobalt price was 426800 yuan / ton, down 1.79% from 434600 yuan / ton on June 12 last week; Compared with the cobalt price of 445500 yuan / ton on June 1, it fell by 4.20%. Cobalt prices fell slightly this week, and the decline of cobalt Market slowed down.

Weekly rise and fall chart of cobalt price

It can be seen from the weekly trend chart of cobalt price of business club that since March, the cobalt price has fallen sharply, and the cobalt market has continued to weaken. Since June, the weekly rise and fall of cobalt price has narrowed significantly, the decline of cobalt price has slowed down, and the cobalt market has stabilized.

Price rise and fall of lithium battery

It can be seen from the price rise and fall of the lithium battery sector of the business club that in recent January, the products in the lithium battery sector have obviously stopped falling and rising, the prices of lithium related products such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have stopped falling and rising, the decline of nickel and cobalt prices has narrowed, the market of new energy vehicles has warmed up, the demand for lithium batteries has risen, and the prices of related products in the lithium battery sector have obviously stopped falling and rising.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst of the business agency, believes that with the continuous promotion of the resumption of work and production, the production and sales of the new energy automobile industry chain have risen, the decline of lithium battery related products has stopped and the demand of the cobalt market has recovered. The international cobalt price has fallen sharply, the supply of cobalt raw materials is sufficient, the oversupply of cobalt in the cobalt market has not fundamentally changed, and the room for cobalt price rise is limited. Generally speaking, the demand of cobalt market recovers, the decline of cobalt price slows down, and it is expected that the volatility of cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 17 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in that week (June 13-17) was stable at about 15900 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, and the enterprise has great shipping pressure.

Industry chain: according to the data of business agency, the mainstream market of upstream raw material acrylonitrile fell from about 11280 yuan / ton to 11080 yuan / ton in the week from June 13 to 17. The price of acrylonitrile continued to be low, and the price of raw material propylene rebounded slightly to 7996 yuan / ton. However, there is still great pressure on the market supply side, and the market is dominated by low-cost goods. At present, the mainstream market offer in East China is 10700~11600 yuan / ton of bulk water; The average price of raw acrylic acid in East China in the current week was 13933.33 yuan / ton, down 1.18% compared with the price on Monday (13th). The acrylic acid market was weak this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene rose and weakened. There was some support on the cost side. The production enterprises at the supply side were mainly stable in unit load. The downstream buying was on demand. The demand side showed light performance. The market atmosphere was stalemate, the transaction atmosphere was general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be consolidated and operated stably in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 6306 yuan / ton on June 13, and 6362 yuan / ton on June 17, a weekly drop of 0.89%. Since the beginning of June, the domestic LNG market price has fluctuated downward, down 3.32% so far, and the market is weak.

Future forecast: the cost of raw materials continues to weaken, the downstream demand is flat, the market spot inventory is sufficient, and the transaction is average. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by small adjustments.

According to Reuters, on June 14 local time, OPEC representatives and industry insiders said that the growth of global oil demand will slow down in 2023 because the soaring crude oil and fuel prices will push up inflation and drag down global economic growth.

It is reported that OPEC sources predict that the oil demand will increase by 2million barrels per day or less in 2023, and the oil production organization previously predicted that the demand will increase by 3.36 million barrels per day in 2022. In the first forecast released in july2021, OPEC initially predicted that the demand growth in 2022 would be 3.28 million barrels per day, then raised it to more than 4million barrels per day, and then lowered it to 3.36 million barrels per day.

At present, OPEC is paying attention to the signs that high fuel prices lead to a decline in oil demand. The damage to demand may affect oil use in the coming months. A senior industry figure believes that the oil price of $120 per barrel is destroying demand, and this has already happened.

It is reported that the global fuel consumption has rebounded from the sharp decline caused by the COVID-19 in 2020. Even if the crude oil price reaches a record high, this year’s fuel consumption will still exceed the level in 2019. However, the high oil price has begun to drag down the economic growth expectation in 2022 and boost the economic growth slowdown expectation in 2023.

Data show that OPEC’s oil production fell by 176000 barrels per day to 28.51 million barrels per day in May, failing to meet the growth target stipulated in the OPEC + agreement. Although OPEC + agreed to accelerate the increase of oil production at the beginning of this month, the oil production of many member states is close to full capacity, and they are unable to further increase production. The group may not be able to achieve its goal of cooling the oil market.

The Iranian foreign ministry said on the 13th that the measures taken by Iran to suspend the implementation of some provisions of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue were all “reversible”. Iran recently shut down some monitoring equipment only to stop some “voluntary measures” and still abide by the relevant safeguards agreement reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency. According to Agence France Presse, this statement means that it is still possible for the United States and Iran to finally reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, when Iran will be able to resume crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy announced on the 14th that it would sell the fourth batch of 45million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves to reduce oil prices. At the same time, the US Treasury Department also announced the bid winner of the public sale of strategic crude oil reserves on May 24. This batch of crude oil is expected to be put on the market between June 15 and July 31.

UBS group said on the 14th that the low inventory, the reduction of surplus capacity and the risk that supply growth lags behind demand growth in the coming months have pushed up its oil price expectations. UBS group predicts that the Brent crude oil futures price at the end of September this year is expected to be $130 per barrel, and that at the end of December this year is expected to be $125 per barrel, compared with the previous forecast of $115 per barrel.