Lubon industry Co. Ltd. potassium sulfate 50% powder price rose 50 yuan to 2400 yuan / ton, granular offer up 50 yuan to 2500 yuan / ton.

Shandong green chemical potassium sulfate 50% powder factory price 2500 yuan / ton, grain factory price 2660 yuan / ton, 52% powder factory price 2730 yuan / ton.

Market summary: at present the trading floor is relatively light, downstream of the reserves of raw materials more cautious, making the venue wait-and-see atmosphere. Years ago, is expected to market in order to run the main consolidation of potassium sulfate.

from the China National Petroleum Corporation was informed that in 2016, international oil prices continued to slump, production and management difficulties facing severe challenges, China’s oil and gas exploration achievements, the annual domestic new proven oil and gas equivalent of more than 11 tons, of which oil geological reserves of 6.49 tons, natural gas geological reserves of 598 billion 500 million cubic meters.

As of 2016, PetroChina has 10 consecutive years of domestic new 10 tons of proven reserves equivalent to high growth, give full play to the role of domestic resources “ballast”, as a solid foundation for the sustainable development of China’s oil industry lay.

According to the chairman of China oil Wang Yilin introduced, since 2014 the international oil prices, oil China adhere to tighten the scale of investment for 2 consecutive years of decline, the cumulative decline of nearly 50%. But the pressure is not pressure investment in exploration and development, exploration and development investment of more than 120 billion yuan last year, accounting for about 60% of the total investment in the company.

In keeping funding at the same time, technological innovation is an important support in the high growth of oil reserves. “12th Five-Year” period, major scientific and technological achievements China oil made only in the field of geological exploration have a number of 40. For example, a large area of lithologic reservoir in Changqing Oilfield three-dimensional exploration technology, new proven oil reserves of 3.69 tons in Longdong area; Tarim Oilfield complex piedmont seismic strengthening research, the new natural gas geological reserves of 300 billion cubic meters.

Exploration and development achievements also support the steady growth of oil and gas production. In 2016, the oil again “oil and gas demand”, annual oil production exceeded 1.05 tons, 1 tons remain above the level of 22 consecutive years; 98 billion cubic meters of natural gas production, production doubled in 10 years.

This week China propylene prices stable. The weekend of East China propylene prices at 7708 yuan / ton, up 0.23% this week.

Analysis of influencing factors

Products: high crude oil, propylene downstream operating stability, the market turnover is stable, price stability. Shandong propylene current mainstream price 7700-7800 yuan / ton.

The industrial chain: high crude oil, polypropylene futures bottomed rebound slightly, downstream customers gradually began to collect money, and polypropylene downstream profit space is good, work is stable, the northern market other downstream products in addition to butyl octanol unit operating rate fell slightly, other operating stability, stable supply.

Industry: crude oil futures rose on Tuesday (January 17th), the Saudi oil minister, optimistic expectations and support u.s.. NYMEX February crude oil futures contract rose $0.11, or 0.2%, to settle at $52.48 a barrel. Brent crude futures rose $0.02 to $55.47 a barrel.

Macro: in December 2016, the business community of commodity supply and demand index (BCI) were 0.49, rose to 5.39%, reflecting the monthly manufacturing economy last month was the expansion of the state economy, rising trend evident.

Market forecast

High crude oil, polypropylene futures bottomed rebound slightly, downstream customers gradually began to collect money, and polypropylene downstream profit space is good, work is stable, the northern market other downstream products in addition to butyl octanol unit operating rate fell slightly, other operating stability, stable supply.

overnight WTI2 month crude oil (52.42, 1.05, 2.04%) futures closed up $0.29 or 0.57%, at $51.37 / barrel. March Brent crude oil futures closed up $0.24 or 0.45%, at $54.16 / barrel. Yesterday domestic linear mainstream market prices in the 9950-10200 yuan / ton. Next week the market entered the Spring Festival holiday, the current consolidation. Although the Spring Festival is expected for years after the accumulated stock spot market, but considering the downstream plant insufficient stocking, coupled with the film market demand season, L futures market is expected to be stronger shocks.

Enterprises In January 18, 2017, the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) voted on imports from China glycine (GLYCINE) made fourth anti-dumping sunset review final: fast industrial damage if the case ruled that the cancellation of the anti-dumping measures on imported substantial damage to a reasonably foreseeable period of the products involved on the domestic industry caused or will continue again occurrence. Therefore, in the case of the current anti-dumping duty to continue. In the ruling, 6 members of the Committee have voted to vote.

In July 28, 1994, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced on imports from China glycine to start anti-dumping investigation. In March 29, 1995, the United States formally to China to impose anti-dumping duties on glycine.

In August 1, 2016, China and the United States glycine fourth times to start anti-dumping sunset review investigation.

In November 4, 2016, the U.S. International Trade Commission voted on imports from China glycine anti-dumping sunset review for rapid industrial damage investigation program. In December 8, 2016, the United States on imports from Chinese glycine made fourth anti-dumping sunset review final.

[hot] Gade chemical network daily HuJiao since January 16th rose sharply after yesterday rose slightly. One day, HuJiao main 1705 contract rose 100 yuan / ton or 0.47%, eventually reported 21250 yuan / ton, in November 7th last year has risen 50.12%.

Yesterday HuJiao 1705 turnover increased 43118 to 579 thousand hand hand, hand positions increased 3038 to 300 thousand hands. The foreign market, Tokyo commodity exchange (TOCOM) on plastic index on Monday hit a near four year high of 307.3 yen / kg, the cumulative increase since November 7th of last year is up to about 69.98%.

The world’s largest rubber producer Thailand floods are the main driving factors of the natural rubber prices.

The recent Thailand monsoon affected heavy rains, southeast area, Nakhon Si Thammarat suffer from floods. The affected area is the main supply area of Thailand, Jiao cup and latex film materials, 4 Fu rubber production seriously affected Thailand accounted for 40% of the annual output of. The Thailand flood will affect the price of natural rubber from two aspects: first, Thailand natural rubber production is expected; secondly, the flood caused part of bridge thrust, natural rubber processing factory finished products shipped affected, the short-term is expected to tight supply of natural rubber.

It is understood that since the January natural rubber producing countries have entered the stop cutting period, new supply is expected to continue to decline in rubber. At present, domestic natural rubber stocks Qingdao port bonded area of 7-8 million tons, compared to the beginning of 2016 is still low.

In 2016, the downstream passenger cars and heavy truck sales significantly improved, is expected in 2017 will continue to boom downstream. Ruida futures data provided by the current domestic tire factory steel, semi steel operating rates were higher than the same period last year, and in December 2016 the domestic heavy truck market total sales of all types of vehicles 76 thousand, an increase of 56% over last year’s 49 thousand, but the chain fell by 17% in November.

The Department of agriculture predicts 2017 crop pests will become the trend of retransmission
According to the China agricultural net, national crop pests forecasting network monitoring survey and expert consultation and analysis, 2017 crop pests in China will repeat in 2017 is expected to trend, plant diseases and insect pests occurrence area increased by 9.7%, is expected to lead to increased demand for pesticides, fungicides. The supply side of the environmental policy tighter, some pesticides gradually withdraw from the small capacity. Shrink capacity superposition increased demand for pesticide products are expected volume and price of pesticides, the performance of listed companies is expected to gradually improve.

The European Commission initiative ban glyphosate will start from the end of the month, the short term is difficult to be replaced with glyphosate, glufosinate long-term demand will increase. With paraquat delisting, currently the main alternatives are glufosinate glyphosate, glufosinate but the difficulty of production technology, process is more complex, only a few domestic companies to scale production, total production capacity is far lower than that of glyphosate, glufosinate and high production cost, the price is 6~7 times of glufosinate glyphosate prices, become an obstacle to the promotion of glufosinate. But in the long term, because the effect of glufosinate low toxicity, high efficiency and environmental protection, the future demand is expected to gradually increase.

chemical industry Business inventories remain low, the 1 quarter is expected to usher in the stock market

By the end of November 2016, chemical industry The industry of chemical fiber manufacturing industry to reduce the inventory turnover days to 19.3 days, the stock fell to 36 billion yuan scale, inventory turnover and inventory scale were decreased to the lowest level since 2012. Low inventory level is expected to exacerbate market supply tension, promote the rising prices of chemical fiber products.

Last week, natural rubber prices rose 2340 yuan / ton (+14.3%) to 18700 yuan / ton, since 4Q16 has risen 68%. rose on Sunday, we think the main reason is the price of rubber:

1) Southern Thailand floods natural rubber imports is expected to increase tension;

2) the demand side is good, heavy truck sales rose in December to continue to increase, the operating rate of downstream tire manufacturers remain high.

basic chemical sector fell 3.7% last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.8%. the basic chemical sector underperform 2.9 percentage points.

Gainers: Chang nine biochemical, sea of shares, shares, holdings, and PA cloud technology etc. ;

Drop top: Runtu shares, Shandong Haihua, Jacques technology, Taurus chemical industry A, Shalongda etc..

Last week the basic chemical sector dynamic earnings downward

Basic chemical (CITIC) plate P/E (TTM) 73.91, P/E (2017E) 45.07, P/E (2018E) 25.56.

From the basic chemical sector and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 valuation ratio, the ratio was 5.65, higher than the average of a year to 5.19.

Last week, Brent crude oil fell 2.89%, WTI crude oil fell 3.00%. domestic chemical species or the top five: natural rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, paraquat, benzene, butadiene rubber; the decline in the top five: two ether, ethylene glycol, polyester filament FDY, methanol, propylene.

According to the latest data show that the current gold LIAN, South Korea and Taiwan, total styrene production capacity of 7 million 255 thousand tons / year. While from the table, on the maintenance of styrene plant is more concentrated near the first half, closing before the draft, to overhaul production capacity has reached 3 million 485 thousand tons / year. From the 2016 import data, 1-11 months in Japan and Taiwan imported a total of 1 million 664 thousand tons, the average monthly amount of 150 thousand tons, from the maintenance plan, the first half of the year due to the maintenance and loss of 260 thousand tons.

Thus, the first half of China’s styrene overall supply pressure is not near, but, because of the Asian dollar market supply is expected to save $tight, the disk is expected to remain strong, will also indirectly to the domestic RMB market provides very price support.

2017-01-12 10:28 Click 119 times [ large in Small ] Gade Chemical Network

[hot] Gade chemical network daily for a long time, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Taiwan, the United States, Iran and Kuwait are China’s most important styrene sources. From the gold LIAN statistics, nearly foreign influence on the intensity of styrene in China an important.

From the analysis of 2016 1-11 month statistics, only the ocean, South Korea imports accounted for 35%, Taiwan accounted for 12%, accounting for 5% of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan regions together accounted for more than 52% of total imports, so the operation of offshore equipment and on China delivery amount should not be underestimated. Cash LIAN statistical analysis for the first half of 2017 as part of equipment maintenance plans: