Price trend

The market for epichlorohydrin fell in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 30th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 7950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.05% compared to the price on May 1st (the reference price for epoxy chloropropane was 8200.00 yuan/ton).

Cause analysis

In terms of cost:

In May, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the price of propylene was 6860.6 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.88% compared to the price of 6800.6 yuan/ton on May 1st. Raw material glycerol, downstream demand is cold, procurement is not active, and the market is weak and stable in May. In May, the price of epichlorohydrin remained low, and the cost support for glycerol production was average, while profits for propylene production enterprises were limited.

In terms of supply:

Within May, there were instances of device restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. Under cost pressures, production enterprises had low enthusiasm to start production, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate was around 50%. Supply faced limited market support.

In terms of demand:

The demand side led the downward trend in May. The support for terminal demand is weak, mainly due to the downstream epoxy resin digestion inventory stage. The follow-up situation for epichlorohydrin is not good, mainly focusing on selecting low small orders for rigid demand. Enterprises have poor shipments, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, and the mentality of operators is insufficient. Enterprises are offering discounts to promote transactions, resulting in increased competition for low prices in the market.

Future Market Forecast:

In summary, the demand remained sluggish in May, and the imbalance between supply and demand dragged down the price of epichlorohydrin. However, the high cost to some extent limited the magnitude of the price decline. In the future, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene may consolidate at a high level, and short-term cost pressure may continue; On the other hand, downstream demand is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is light, with no significant improvement in the short term. The cost is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected that the market situation for epichlorohydrin may be weak in the short term, but the downward space may be limited, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 1st to 29th, 2024, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose, with a market price of 262910 yuan/ton on the 1st and 279210 yuan/ton on the 29th, a monthly increase of 6.2%.

On May 28th, the base metal index was 1392 points, an increase of 18 points from yesterday, a decrease of 13.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 116.82% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 28th, the tin commodity index was 142.13, an increase of 3.44 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.28% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 231.61% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In the first half of May, the tin ingot market showed a weak and volatile trend, with poor macro employment data from the United States and a volatile trend in the non-ferrous metal market. The Shanghai tin market followed the overall trend. In terms of supply and demand, there is still a weak supply-demand relationship, especially on the demand side, as the market continued to rise at the end of April, downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, and the demand remained weak due to the need to replenish inventory. After entering mid May, the macro performance improved, and the non-ferrous metal market generally rebounded, driving the tin market to rapidly rise and maintain a period of high volatility. But as tin prices do not count as rising, high prices have suppressed actual downstream demand. Currently, downstream procurement intentions are more wait-and-see, and the overall situation remains to replenish inventory as needed.

In terms of supply and demand: The situation of tight supply at the mining end still exists, and currently, smelting enterprises in the main production areas are maintaining normal production. The overall domestic supply is relatively stable, and the overall performance of the supply side is relatively stable. In terms of demand, with the rise of tin prices, downstream procurement enthusiasm in the market is low, but solder companies have been steadily improving in recent times, and future demand expectations are still promising. Overall, the supply is expected to be stable and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to maintain stable, medium to strong operation in the short term.

Related data:

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of China’s semiconductor industry surged by 40% in the first quarter of 2024. In March alone, the national integrated circuit production reached 36.2 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, setting a new historical high.

The report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in March 2024, global refined tin production was 31300 tons, consumption was 24300 tons, and there was an oversupply of 7000 tons. From January to March 2024, the global refined tin production was 89600 tons, with a consumption of 74100 tons and an oversupply of 15500 tons. In March 2024, the global tin ore production was 27000 tons. From January to March 2024, the global tin ore production was 78900 tons.

The price of isobutyraldehyde increased significantly in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the domestic quotation for isobutyraldehyde was 8675 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.40% from the price of 7650 yuan/ton on May 1st. Low inventory of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers, resulting in a significant increase in isobutyraldehyde prices in May; Downstream demand support, manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship, and the price of isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the price of propylene was 6824.6 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.35% compared to the price of 6800.6 yuan/ton on May 1st. Crude oil prices are weakly consolidating, propylene cost support is weakening, propylene price increases are weak, propylene units are restarting and increasing, propylene supply is sufficient, downstream procurement enthusiasm is limited, propylene enterprises are generally selling, and propylene prices are fluctuating and consolidating. Cost support still exists, with limited support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde.

Downstream favorable support increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the quotation for new pentanediol was 10700 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.36% compared to the quotation of 9966.67 yuan/ton on May 1st. The quotation of new pentanediol enterprises has significantly increased, with Yantai Wanhua’s new pentanediol price rising to 11100-11300 yuan/ton, and Luxi Chemical’s new pentanediol quotation of 9850 yuan/ton. Cost support is strong, and the new pentanediol market is operating stronger. The inventory of new pentanediol factories is low, and the order is currently scheduled for next month. The supply of goods on site is tight, and the inquiry atmosphere is strong. Traders are reluctant to sell in stock, resulting in an increase in the market price of new pentanediol.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene fluctuates and consolidates, and the support for the increase in isobutyraldehyde cost is weakened; In terms of supply and demand, the supply of isobutyraldehyde is tightening, and the price of isobutyraldehyde is rising; The price of neopentyl glycol has significantly increased, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and demand support for isobutyraldehyde is limited. In the future, cost support still exists, supply and demand are tight, and isobutyraldehyde enterprises are more willing to raise prices. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels in the future.

The sponge titanium market has been operating steadily this week. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 24th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.46% compared to the beginning of this month (54750.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of raw materials, the high price of titanium concentrate has put pressure on the cost of high titanium slag enterprises. In addition, with the increase in electricity prices in Liaoning region, most production enterprises have suffered losses, and the market price of high titanium slag is under pressure and rising. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 24th, the benchmark price of magnesium in Shengyishe was 18733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% compared to the beginning of this month (18666.67 yuan/ton).

Downstream titanium material market demand is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is cold.

Post forecast:

Due to the high prices in the raw material market, magnesium ingot prices have increased, sponge titanium production capacity has been continuously released, and production has increased. However, downstream market demand is weak, and the transaction atmosphere is cold, presenting a state of supply-demand imbalance. According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, the sponge titanium market is expected to operate steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has decreased this week. On May 24th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3300 yuan/ton on May 20th, a decrease of 3.03% during the week and a decrease of 1.54% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market was weak. With the resumption of operation of some maintenance equipment, the inventory of manufacturers has increased. In order to promote the reduction of acetic acid quotations for inventory, and at the same time, downstream resistance to high priced sources of goods has led to low enthusiasm for entering the market and purchasing goods. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the mentality of manufacturers is empty. The focus of acetic acid trading has once again shifted downwards.

As of May 24th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ May 20th/ May 24th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ -50

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ -50

Shandong region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ -100

Jiangsu region/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -75

Zhejiang region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ -75

The upstream raw material methanol market has fallen from a high level. On May 24th, the average price in the domestic market was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.94% compared to the price of 3020 yuan/ton on May 20th. The early maintenance equipment has been gradually restored, the situation of imported goods arriving at the port has been alleviated, port inventory has rebounded, and the social stock of the methanol market is gradually increasing. Downstream, demand orders are mainly in demand, and the market supply is clearly oversupplied. The prices of methanol in ports and mainland China continue to decline.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. On May 24th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5525.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% compared to the price of 5587.50 yuan/ton on May 20th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and downward, with weak cost support for acetic anhydride. The supply of acetic anhydride market is sufficient, downstream production is stable, on-site trading follows up as needed, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is average. The upstream market has driven the price of acetic anhydride to decline.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the inventory pressure of acetic acid enterprises is still acceptable, the sales pressure of manufacturers is weakened, downstream demand continues to be weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market to purchase goods is average. On market trading is limited, and under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be wait-and-see consolidation, with prices possibly fluctuating narrowly. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has fluctuated this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus on Monday was 22726.67 yuan/ton, and on Thursday it was 22660 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fluctuated. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is still good, with manufacturers mainly issuing early orders and tight spot prices. Yellow phosphorus enterprises are mainly raising prices. The downstream inquiry situation is relatively positive, with high-end prices lowered and low-end prices adjusted. The overall procurement is still relatively cautious, and the upstream and downstream continue to remain deadlocked. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, the market price of phosphate ore is temporarily stable this week. The reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1048 yuan/ton. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the pace of phosphate ore shipments in some areas is clear. The mentality of the industry is good. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate in a stable and minor manner, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, the coke market has been operating weakly this week. After the first round of price hikes and reductions were implemented, the price of coking coal continued to fall, and the profits of coking enterprises are still acceptable. Currently, the construction is active, and the overall supply of coke is stable. Downstream demand for coke replenishment is maintained. The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Inner Mongolia’s Wuhai coke market is 1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke is between 1650-1700 yuan/ton, and it is currently operating steadily.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid is rising. The average price of domestic hot process phosphoric acid market on Monday was 6570 yuan/ton, and on Thursday it was 6620 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.76%. The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that the current market for raw material yellow phosphorus is still good, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors mainly observing.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the current trading situation on the yellow phosphorus market is still acceptable. The upstream phosphate ore market prices are temporarily stable, while downstream phosphate prices have slightly increased. The overall support for upstream and downstream is good. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will remain stable and operate steadily in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly increased recently (5.13-5.22). On May 21st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7670 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% from 7460 yuan/ton on May 13th.

International crude oil is weakly volatile, and the cost support for mixed xylene is weak

Recently (5.13-5.22), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of May 21st, the settlement of WTI07 contract is 78.66 USD/barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $82.88 per barrel. The narrow consolidation of Asian mixed xylene prices continues to support the domestic market, with Asian isomeric grade xylene prices ranging from $949 to $950 per ton as of May 21.

Mixed xylene port destocking and stagnant inventory still facing pressure

The inventory of mixed xylene at the port is still under pressure. It is understood that as of May 16th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 55000 tons, which is unchanged from the first half of May.

The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak

Due to maintenance of some devices, the domestic PX production has slightly decreased, and as of May 21st, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 75%. It is understood that Weilian Chemical has recently shut down 2 million tons of PX for maintenance, with a planned maintenance period of around 40 days. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 21, the closing price in the Asian region is 1002-1004 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1027-1029 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has increased, and the market for naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly increased, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of May 16th, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 690%.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: Business Society’s mixed xylene analyst believes that in the short term, the international crude oil range will consolidate, and the cost support for mixed xylene will weaken; The decline in downstream PX production has weakened support for mixed xylene. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will continue to experience a slight upward trend in the later stage.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 21st, the average market price of vinyl acetate was 6537 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.

In terms of cost

Calcium carbide: Recently, the domestic price of calcium carbide has remained stable. On May 21st, the price of calcium carbide was 2833 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from last week. Recently, there has been an increase in equipment maintenance for calcium carbide enterprises, resulting in a significant contraction in supply. There has been no significant change in downstream demand, and the pace of demand has remained stable. The calcium carbide market has remained stable.

Acetic acid: Domestic acetic acid prices have fallen this week. On May 21st, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, and on May 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41% from last week. The continuous decline in inventory of acetic acid enterprises in the early stage, coupled with factors such as factory equipment failures and load reduction, has pushed up the price of acetic acid. The overall trading atmosphere in the later stage of the market showed a slight decline, with limited follow-up efforts. The downstream purchasing atmosphere was not good, and the regional quotations were loose, resulting in a decrease in the price of acetic acid.

In terms of demand

The demand for EVA in the domestic market is weak, and the trading atmosphere on the market is average. The PVC futures market is relatively strong, and the mainstream transaction prices in the spot market are rising, with positive macro news.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, there is no positive support for the fundamentals, as downstream users purchase on demand and there is insufficient follow-up on new orders. It is expected that the market for vinyl acetate will remain stagnant in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (5.13-5.20), with an average market price of 259810 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 78810 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 7.31%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

Supply and demand: The situation of tight supply at the mining end still exists, and currently, smelting enterprises in the main production areas are maintaining normal production. The overall domestic supply is relatively stable, and the overall performance of the supply side is relatively stable. In terms of demand, with the rise of tin prices, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement in the market is relatively low. Currently, it still maintains a basic demand for replenishment, and the overall market trading performance is average. However, solder companies have been steadily improving in recent times, and future demand expectations are still acceptable. Overall, the supply is expected to be stable and the demand is expected to improve.

Overall, the macro level has performed well recently, with the nonferrous metal market generally recovering. Tin is more susceptible to macro level influences, and its recent trend is relatively strong. But as tin prices do not count as rising, high prices have suppressed actual downstream demand. Currently, downstream procurement intentions are more wait-and-see, and the overall situation remains to replenish inventory as needed. Driven by macro positive factors, there is room for upward movement in the tin market, but the downstream is more cautious and expected to maintain stable, medium, and strong operations in the short term.

Industry data:

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic polyester filament prices remained stable this week (May 13-17), with increased cost drivers. However, downstream purchasing attitudes were cautious. At present, the mainstream polyester filament factory POY (150D/48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offers a price range of 7450-7650 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) offers a price range of 9000-9200 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) offers a price range of 8150-8000 yuan/ton.

In the future, the cost side is still favorable, and international crude oil futures have bottomed out and stabilized. As of May 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.23 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.27 per barrel. The instability of the current situation in the Middle East still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. In addition, the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, and the decline in US crude oil and finished oil inventories will also provide support for oil prices. It is unlikely that the oil market will continue to decline.

In the PTA market, the maintenance plan for domestic PTA devices has been basically implemented, and PTA production has decreased. In addition, downstream polyester factories have stable demand, and the overall performance of the fundamentals is still good, which has helped to slightly rebound PTA prices. As of May 17th, the average market price in East China was 5858 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from the beginning of the week. Domestic PTA plants have been undergoing maintenance one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has decreased to around 73%. In the future, the 4.6 million ton PTA plant may restart next week, and there are currently no plans for other large-scale PTA plant maintenance or restart in the short term. After the maintenance and restart of the PTA device are gradually completed, it will drive the slow recovery of PTA supply, and the supply of goods will be relatively loose.

Under the weakening demand during the off-season, polyester factories have eased inventory pressure by reducing production passively and proactively. Recently, mainstream polyester factories have announced production reduction plans, but there are doubts about the implementation of polyester production reduction. The seasonal decline in terminal demand is expected, and the current downstream weaving machine operating rate is stable at around 71%. With the weakening of the textile market and the accumulation of factory inventory, the expectation for the future market is poor. In the short term, it may mainly consume its own stock, and the purchasing mentality is cautious.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that it is difficult to see a significant increase in downstream demand in the short term, and the fundamentals are not optimistic. However, due to increased support for raw material costs and the impact of production reduction plans by polyester factories, it is expected that the price of polyester filament may slightly increase.