According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (5.13-5.20), with an average market price of 259810 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 78810 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 7.31%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

Supply and demand: The situation of tight supply at the mining end still exists, and currently, smelting enterprises in the main production areas are maintaining normal production. The overall domestic supply is relatively stable, and the overall performance of the supply side is relatively stable. In terms of demand, with the rise of tin prices, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement in the market is relatively low. Currently, it still maintains a basic demand for replenishment, and the overall market trading performance is average. However, solder companies have been steadily improving in recent times, and future demand expectations are still acceptable. Overall, the supply is expected to be stable and the demand is expected to improve.

Overall, the macro level has performed well recently, with the nonferrous metal market generally recovering. Tin is more susceptible to macro level influences, and its recent trend is relatively strong. But as tin prices do not count as rising, high prices have suppressed actual downstream demand. Currently, downstream procurement intentions are more wait-and-see, and the overall situation remains to replenish inventory as needed. Driven by macro positive factors, there is room for upward movement in the tin market, but the downstream is more cautious and expected to maintain stable, medium, and strong operations in the short term.

Industry data:

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.