1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on August 1st was 6640 yuan/ton. On August 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6925 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid price increased by 4.29%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 6433 yuan/ton on August 1st, and 6916 yuan/ton on August 30th. This month, the domestic wet-process phosphoric acid price increased by 7.51%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid fluctuated and increased this month. In mid to early August, although there was support on the cost side, downstream demand was not sufficient, with immediate replenishment being the main focus, and market transactions were average. The market situation of hot process phosphoric acid fluctuates in a narrow range, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid increases. In late August, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus significantly increased, and the cost side trend was strong. The market price of phosphoric acid followed the rise of raw materials. As of August 30th, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6900 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6700-6950 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-7700 yuan/ton.

Market situation of raw material yellow phosphorus. The yellow phosphorus market price rose in August, and the overall market trading situation was relatively active. On site inventory is low, market spot is tight, and manufacturers mainly place early orders. Towards the end of the month, manufacturers are relatively resistant to high priced yellow phosphorus, resulting in a stalemate between supply and demand. The enterprise will not provide external quotations for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with moderate stocking and a focus on immediate demand. As of August 30th, the market quotation is around 26180-26500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the recent rise in raw material yellow phosphorus has been temporarily delayed, and the market is operating at a low price, with short-term prices likely to loosen. The phosphoric acid market is undergoing consolidation and operation, with downstream and dealers mainly watching. It is expected that the short-term price of phosphoric acid will follow the fluctuation of raw materials and organize and operate.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of August 29th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5100 yuan/ton. This week, DMF prices have mainly increased, with mainstream prices currently around 5200 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices mainly stable compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. Upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are offering discounts and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On August 28th, the chemical index stood at 917 points, an increase of 10 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 34.50% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 53.34% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5525.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.71%. The lowest price was quoted at 5250.00 yuan/ton on August 19, a decrease of 4.98% compared to the highest point at the beginning of the month. The current price has decreased by 23.36% compared to last year.

potassium nitrate

In August, the domestic potassium nitrate market first fell and then rose. From the above figure, it can be seen that the potassium nitrate market continued to rise in the first two months. From the end of last month to this month, the market showed a fluctuating trend, with a decrease of about an increase. In the early stage, the decline continued from the previous month, while in the later stage, the raw material potassium chloride increased at the end of the month, with good cost support. Potassium nitrate followed the cost increase, and manufacturers shipped normally, resulting in a slight increase in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate have recently quoted 5200-5500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in August was first downward and then upward. Domestic potassium: The market price of 60% crystal is mostly between 2400-2550 yuan/ton (increased by 50 yuan/ton), while the port price of 62% white potassium is around 2700-2750 yuan/ton (increased by 100 yuan/ton); 60% of the large particles in the port are around 2700-2750; Border trade areas: 62% of Russian white potassium prices are mostly between 2400-2450 yuan/ton; Qinghai 60% white potassium arrives at the station at around 2800. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

At present, the border trade has not yet arrived, and the domestic potassium chloride market has a tight supply of goods. Potassium chloride is expected to rise, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of August 25th, the spot nickel quotation was 171750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 7 and fallen by 5 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, new economic data from Europe and America has been released. The PMI values of European and American countries in August were lower than market expectations, reducing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the European and American central banks and raising expectations for possible interest rate cuts next year. Driven by China’s stimulus policies, risk appetite has increased, while July’s consumption data showed strong performance, providing upward momentum for the non-ferrous metal market.

In terms of supply: In July 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 21500 tons, an increase of 5.39% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 34.38%. In late August, the 50000 ton/year refined nickel project in Qingshan, Indonesia was officially put into operation. Indonesia’s anti-corruption review has led to the suspension of RKAB issuance, increasing concerns about tight supply of nickel ore, and expectations of future raw material tightening in the nickel industry chain.

In terms of demand: Alloys are the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding, while civilian alloys are not good. The electroplating industry is generally affected by the off-season, and downstream demand orders are poor. The pressure on stainless steel inventory is showing, but currently maintaining high production schedules has some support for the demand for pure nickel. Pure nickel is basically not used in new energy. It is expected that the downstream consumption of pure nickel will continue to increase in late August, but the marginal increment will be limited.

In summary, the news of nickel mines has disrupted nickel prices, and market sentiment has provided support for nickel prices. However, downstream acceptance of high prices remains weak, and spot price increases remain under pressure. Meanwhile, the market has revealed that the production of Indonesia’s refined nickel project will also limit the space above nickel prices. It is expected that the short-term nickel price may remain high and volatile.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of August 24th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4700 yuan/ton. This week, DMF prices remained stable, with mainstream prices currently around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices mainly stable compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. Upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are offering discounts and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On August 23, the chemical index stood at 896 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 36.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 49.83% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

Gold prices in August showed a “v” pattern

As of the 23rd, the price of precious metal gold in August fell first and then rose, showing a “v” pattern. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot market price of gold on August 23, 2023 was 458.28 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.28% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (August 1), which was 457 yuan/gram.

Silver Price

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on August 23, 2023 was 5713.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.43% compared to Monday’s 5578 yuan/kg, and a decrease of 0.94% compared to the average silver market price of 5816 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (August 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Logical sorting of precious metal fundamentals

The Federal Reserve is still in a tightening cycle of policies, and there is still uncertainty about when to end interest rate hikes. The high interest rate hike in the United States has a restraining effect on interest free asset precious metals. However, the market holds a loose expectation for the Fed’s subsequent policies, which to some extent alleviates the pressure on precious metal prices.

At the same time, the release of gold demand has raised the price of precious metals. On the one hand, it is based on geopolitical tensions, and on the other hand, it is also a concern about macroeconomic uncertainty. The physical demand in the post pandemic era, coupled with the continuous monetary demand for central banks to purchase gold globally.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

Silver experienced a significant decline in early August, and the recent strong rebound in silver prices is expected to be stronger than gold in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 18th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21266.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 20.57% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 18th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24766.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month and an increase of 1.78% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of August 18th, the domestic price of trichloromethane has slightly declined, with a 3.03% drop within the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly rebounded, with a 0.88% increase within the month. Upstream raw material prices have slightly declined. This week, some enterprises have slightly lowered the factory price of R22, driving a slight decline in the domestic R22 market price.

As of August 18th, the domestic price of trichloroethylene has continued to operate at a low level, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly rebounded, rising by 0.88% within the month. The cost of raw materials has remained low, and supported by the demand for summer refrigerants, the overall domestic price of R134a has remained stable and advanced this week.

In terms of raw materials, overall, the domestic hydrofluoric acid prices continue to be relatively low, and the domestic refrigerant market prices will continue to be under pressure in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, the upstream raw material costs are fluctuating, and the overall inventory of the refrigerant industry is low. In the third quarter, downstream demand remains high, and manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support. They are playing a long short game, and it is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to fluctuate slightly at the current level in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 21, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4400 yuan/ton. Compared to August 14 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4533 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (8.14-8.21), the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China has shown a weak and declining trend. Recently, the operating rate of dimethyl carbonate plants in some regions of China has increased, and the overall supply volume of the dimethyl carbonate market has increased. There is some supply pressure on the supply side, but the overall performance of the downstream demand side is average. The electrolyte solvent market is cautious in stocking, and the delivery atmosphere is flat. The demand support for dimethyl carbonate is limited. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall focus of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is weak and moving downwards, Some factories and suppliers have lowered the price of dimethyl carbonate narrowly, with a reduction of around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of August 21st, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4200-4500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading of new orders for dimethyl carbonate on the market is cautious, with a focus on maintaining just demand. The overall downstream operating rate is low, and the support provided to dimethyl carbonate is limited. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate is mostly weak and the operation is mainly adjusted. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The domestic phenol market rebounded after rising. According to the Market Analysis System of Business Society, the national market average price was 8045 yuan/ton on August 18th, with a decrease of 1.59% during the week.

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on August 18th is as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Weekly ups and downs

East China region/ 8000./-150

Shandong region/ 8050./-100

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 8050./-100

South China region/ 8080./-170

Port replenishment, falling within the week. Last week, there was not much supply pressure in the phenol market, and the market’s upward momentum was evident. The market’s focus was slightly boosted, and some companies also raised their listing prices at the beginning of the week. However, this week, domestic trade shipments were replenished well, and operators participated cautiously. The supplier continued to make concessions for shipments, resulting in a weaker market focus and a drop below 8000 yuan/ton in the middle of the week.

The buying enthusiasm of end users is poor, and the wait-and-see sentiment of end users is heavy. The actual transaction situation in the market is not optimistic.

Next week, we will focus on the supply of domestic resources. Currently, there is not much supply pressure, but with high costs and average prices, there is little intention for holders to offer profits. Business Society believes that the market negotiation is between 8050 and 8200 yuan/ton, with most terminals mainly focused on hard demand, and is expected to slightly increase next week.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on August 17th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4026.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78% compared to 4141.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4300 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 3900 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On August 16th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 456 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 478 US dollars/ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Affected by the reduction in raw material crude oil production in July and the upward trend in domestic coal prices, the cost support for ethylene glycol has strengthened compared to the previous period.

On the demand side: downstream polyester maintains high operating rates, with a polyester operating rate of over 90%; Terminal new orders followed up slightly month on month, but remained at a low level year-on-year.

From the supply side, the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol is still high, and some devices have restarted. Currently, it is still in the stage of oversupply.

In terms of port inventory, as of August 17th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 1.0618 million tons. Recently, there has been a concentration of port arrivals, and there is a phenomenon of accumulated inventory in the data. From August 14th to August 20th, the estimated arrival volume at the East China main port is 174000 tons. The current inventory is 961300 tons compared to June 29th, with a cumulative inventory of 100500 tons. Compared to the same period last year on August 18th, 1.1313 million tons still have a significant amount of inventory.

Ethylene glycol callback in August

In July, due to the influence of raw material prices, there was strong support for the cost of ethylene glycol; However, the supply and demand fundamentals are still weak, and after the correction of ethylene glycol prices in August, they gradually entered the gaming platform range. At present, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol are both strong, and it is expected to enter a fluctuating range in the short term.