1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 27th day was 775.75 USD / ton, 0.68% lower than that on the 24th day, and the current price is 32.17% lower than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices remained stable, as of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $703-709 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $696-704 per ton. The price of European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the 27th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $886-895 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $782-790 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region fell by 27th, with a price of 273-291 US dollars / ton. Overall, in recent years, the European and American ethylene market has been declining, especially the U.S. ethylene market has fallen to the lowest point, and the demand for the whole ethylene market is weak, with more than a drop. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on February 26, New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in April 2020 was $48.73 per barrel, down $1.17 or 2.3% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in April 2020 was $53.43 per barrel, down $1.52 or 2.8% compared with the previous trading day, and crude oil continued to rise for four days Fall, the price of ethylene can not play a supporting role, ethylene market fell. Downstream styrene prices fluctuated and consolidated, and ethanol prices fell, which could not support ethylene prices, and there is a possibility of further decline.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, crude oil fell for four consecutive days under the influence of global epidemic warming in the near future. The superposition of market risk factors will increase the amplitude of crude oil, and the oversold reaction of the market will further increase the long risk. In the near future, the market or low volatility will not exclude the possibility of further bottom exploration, and the later crude oil price still needs to wait and see. Therefore, data analyst of Business & Social expects that Ethylene prices will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range.

The HFA commodity index on February 24 was 98.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.82% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 83.90% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has increased slightly. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 10950 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is more than 60%. Enterprises report that the supply of spot hydrofluoric acid in the site is tight at present. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation, some units have not been started. Recently, the market of hydrofluoric acid in the site has improved. Due to the general downstream demand, hydrofluoric acid manufacturers The price of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10500-11000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, and the supply of spot goods was tight, but the demand situation was not clearly improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly.

The price of upstream fluorite market is higher. Recently, fluorite manufacturers are limited to start production. The supply of fluorite is very tight. Fluorite price has been at a high level. As of the 25th, the price of fluorite is 3122.22 yuan / ton. The rising price of upstream raw materials brings certain cost support to hydrofluoric acid market. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is affected by the price support of raw materials fluorite. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal has increased. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The price trend of domestic refrigerants R22 market is rising slightly. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high. The supply of goods in the market is general. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturers stop more and the demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises rises to 16500-1850 0 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price remains stable. The downstream purchase is still on demand, the downstream market is slightly higher, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is higher.

Generally speaking, the turnover in the refrigerant field is not very big. For the upstream hydrofluoric acid market, the unit operation rate of the refrigerant industry has little change. However, with the shortage of fluorite supply and certain support for the cost, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business club, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise slightly.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower. As of February 24, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic method is 5725 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower, the demand of plasticizer industry is general, and the market of phthalic anhydride is stable and slightly lower.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been slightly lower, the transportation of chemicals has been alleviated, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers still have inventory and poor delivery. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China fell slightly, the downstream factories shut down a lot, the factory inventory pressure increased, the high-end transaction was blocked, the recent factory inventory increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined. In East China, 5500-5900 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and 5300-5600 yuan / ton for naphthalene process; in North China, 5400-5800 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for phthalic anhydride market. Most of the manufacturers in the site have stable prices, low downstream construction, mainly on-demand procurement, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is normal, in addition to phthalic anhydride Travel demand is not good, for phthalic anhydride on-demand procurement, phthalic anhydride price trend slightly down.

In the near future, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream products of Sinopec in China on February 24 is 5800 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic acid in the port area is slightly lower and the quotation is declining. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port area is weak, the port inventory is increased, and the quotation of phthalic acid in the external market is lower. The actual transaction price is subject to the negotiation, which is discussed in detail. Due to the low price of phthalic acid upstream raw materials, the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower Go down.

The price of downstream DOP raw materials isooctanol is temporarily stable, the cost of DOP raw materials is fluctuating and falling, DOP enterprises operate at low load, during the anti epidemic period, logistics is limited, transportation is difficult, and DOP manufacturers’ inventory is increased. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fell, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation of DOP market is about 7100-7500 yuan / ton, a small amount of market plasticizer is traded, the price of upstream ox is low and fluctuates, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to maintain the trend of fluctuation in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the ex factory price of oil glycol in North China was stable this week. On February 21, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 4500 yuan / ton, the same as last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4335 yuan / ton. On Friday, the price was 4435 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, up 2.31%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of February 20, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 68.06%, down 1.89% from last week, slightly down.

In terms of shipment, the shipment in the main reservoir area of East China continued to be on the low side, with a total shipment volume of 36300 tons from last Friday to this Thursday.

As of February 20, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 578500 tons, a decrease of 42500 tons or 6.84% compared with last Thursday, an increase of 23100 tons or 4.16% compared with this Monday..

In the downstream, the polyester operation rate is 58.85%, similar to that of last week, and the weaving end operation rate has increased significantly.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Although the glycol market is still depressed this week, it has improved significantly compared with last week. The factory price of enterprises has been raised, and the market price has also risen in a small range. The continuous increase of international oil price and the gradual increase of terminal weaving operation rate have provided certain support for the price of glycol.

However, due to the fact that the polyester end operating rate has been kept at a relatively low level, and the early arrival of cargo delayed by the closure of the Yangtze River channel, the expected increase in the accumulated storage has put pressure on the price.

Therefore, it is expected that the price of glycol will pick up in the short term, but in the long term, attention should be paid to the downstream production capacity.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 563 yuan / ton on February 13, and 566 yuan / ton on February 19, with a price increase of 0.59%. On February 19, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.38% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 29.39% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market is picking up. This week, some enterprises made a small exploration. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-700 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-650 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is stable and rising. Due to the price rise of monoammonium phosphate as raw material, the price of some compound fertilizer enterprises increased. Enterprises mainly focus on inventory and return to work slowly. Due to the impact of logistics and transportation, the volume of transactions is average. With the increase of fertilizer use in spring, the market will slowly increase. At present, the purchase of ammonium sulfate is mainly rigid.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on February 18, 2020, among which the top three commodities are aluminum fluoride (2.61%), propylene (0.93%) and monoammonium phosphate (0.87%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were hydrogen peroxide (- 4.78%), butadiene (- 2.18%) and isopropanol (- 1.24%). The average price of this day was – 0.07%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association think that the price of coking grade ammonium sulphate has risen slightly at present, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulphate port is stable. Ammonium sulfate Market slightly adjusted, the market began to pick up. Due to the logistics and transportation problems, there is limited space to rise. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the later period.

On February 18, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 108.33, down 5.44 points from yesterday, down 50.07% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 51.00% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency: in the week of February 18, after the stable level of dioxygen, there was a big dive. On the 18th, the average market price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 996 yuan / ton, a daily decline of 4.78%, down 10.75% from the beginning of the month.

market analysis

In the middle of February, the logistics and transportation of hydrogen peroxide in some areas were still blocked and not improved. Except a few hydrogen peroxide manufacturers still insist on external quotation, most manufacturers do not offer external quotation temporarily. Due to transportation problems, it is still difficult for terminal caprolactam manufacturers and papermaking industry to purchase hydrogen peroxide. The transaction volume of hydrogen peroxide Market is limited. Some manufacturers have significantly reduced the price of hydrogen peroxide by about 150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 850 yuan / ton.

As of February 18, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong Province: Luxi Chemical Industry 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 840 yuan / ton; the price dropped 160 yuan / ton.

Hebei: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide of Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 850 yuan / ton, and the price fell 150 yuan / ton.

Anhui area: Anhui Quansheng and Jinhe do not offer to the outside temporarily.

Hunan Province: Hunan Shuangyang high tech Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide is 1300 yuan / ton.

Zhejiang area: Hangzhou Mingxin will not offer to the outside temporarily.

Outlook for the future

Hydrogen peroxide analysts of the business club believe that: in late February, the terminal enterprises will resume work one after another, and the demand may improve. In the short term, the price of hydrogen peroxide is still weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, on February 17, the operation of the domestic phosphorus ore market was temporarily stable, and the comprehensive sample area quoted price. The average ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore was around 403 yuan / ton, and the quotation basically remained unchanged before the festival without any fluctuation. On February 17, the phosphorus ore commodity index was 74.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 37.17% from 117.80 (2012-07-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 44.04% from 51.38, the lowest point on December 24, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the trading of phosphorus ore market is recovering slowly, and the recovery progress of mining enterprises is still poor. Some mining enterprises still need to resume production next week. At present, under the difficulty of auto parts transportation, the market mainly supplies a small amount of goods to customers in surrounding areas, with low inventory in departments and regions, light trading atmosphere, and production recovery still needs some time. At present, the reference price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car in Guizhou is 320 yuan / ton, the reference price of transaction is 280 yuan / ton, the reference price of 30% ammonium phosphate ore car is 330-360 yuan / ton; the reference price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car in Yunnan is 275 yuan / ton; the reference price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car in Hubei is 390-400 yuan / ton, the actual transaction is low, the reference price of 28% grade phosphorus ore in Liushugou is 390 yuan / ton, and the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Hubei is 390 yuan / ton The ore reference price is 440 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price of yellow phosphorus, a downstream product, has been raised since last week. At present, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17600 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 17000 yuan / ton. The main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 17000 yuan / ton. At present, the overall supply of yellow phosphorus market is still tight. From next week, downstream users will gradually resume production. Before resuming driving, they need to prepare goods in advance, and the demand for yellow phosphorus has increased.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business association, with the increase of downstream product demand and the gradual recovery of phosphorus ore market, the market will be stable and strong.

Commodity index: on February 14, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 105.41, unchanged from yesterday, 3.30% lower than the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and 4.47% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream market quotation of polyaluminium chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) in early January 2020 is about 1833.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market quotation on the 21st of that month is 1833.33 yuan / ton, which is stable. From February to now, the main quotation scope of domestic market of polyaluminium chloride mainly focuses on: the quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) with tax is about 1800-1850 yuan / ton, and the quotation of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) with tax is about 400-450 yuan / ton.

Upstream: from the middle of January 2020 to now, after the Spring Festival holiday and delayed resumption of work, the domestic market hydrochloric acid price is stable. According to the data of the business agency, the mixed price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province for 31min is about 246.67 yuan / ton. Currently, the upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the supply of salt and acid is normal.

Downstream: during the Spring Festival, the construction of water treatment project is stopped, and there is basically no purchase order; at present, the construction units start to resume work one after another, and the demand will gradually improve.

Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, has been shut down since receiving the notice of shut down on December 19, 2019. It is reported that the factory is still selling inventory, the demand is weak, the freight is still affected, the price is stable and basically unchanged.

Industry:

1. In late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after scheduling or acceptance according to the office.

2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.

3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.

4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

5. From January to now, relevant enterprises in the main production area have stopped production and entered the holiday mode.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, under the current situation, the construction unit has strict approval for resumption of work, the demand for polyaluminium chloride is light and the transportation is still resistant; the existing supply of the manufacturer is sufficient, the main production area in Henan has not started production, and the inventory pressure has not increased significantly for the time being; the upstream hydrochloric acid market is stable. It is expected that the enterprises will resume work on a large scale starting next week, the downstream demand will gradually turn from weak to warm, and the price will be stable for the time being.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 #)

2. Latest price (February 12, 2020): 12108.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

In Fujian, the price range is 11700-11800 yuan / ton; in Sichuan, the price range is 11800-11900 yuan / ton; in Kunming, the price range is 11800-11900 yuan / ton; in Shanghai, the price range is 12600-12800 yuan / ton; in Tianjin, the price range is 12100-12300 yuan / ton; in Huangpu, the price range is 12200-12400 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

On the domestic side, the logistics has not yet fully recovered, the supply of goods is generally tight, and the price of the goods holders is firm. With the increase of downstream enterprises after the festival, the market is expected to be strong.

On the foreign side, there is a strong demand in foreign countries, with a large amount of reserve consumption in the early stage and a low level of inventory. At present, there is a strong demand for replenishment of inventory. Several large-scale foreign aluminum alloy enterprises have started a new round of bidding, and they are worried about domestic supply, with a strong expectation of price increase.

4. Future forecast: it is predicted that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be mainly strong.

1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market is mainly stable. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 11, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9876 yuan / ton, up 0.82% month on month, up 2.88% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: domestic BDO market is stable. With the decrease of the load of Dongyuan, Shanhua and Meike, the overall start-up decreased compared with that before the festival. However, due to the inventory of each factory, the supply is abundant in the short term. While the main downstream load is low, the rest of the downstream resume work progress is slow, and the digestion capacity is limited. At the same time, transportation is still the biggest resistance in the current market, and some downstream factories stop because of the shortage of raw materials. Many manufacturers have no new price to offer, lest the goods cannot be delivered. The operators dare not make a sales plan, and continue to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and the acceptance of the price.

In terms of market, BDO market in South China is running smoothly. Main downstream low-level operation, limited consumption, and more inventory. At present, transportation is the biggest resistance. Most manufacturers say that they have sporadic inquiries, but there is no real negotiation, and the focus is stable. BDO market in East China maintains stable operation. Affected by the transportation, especially the automobile transportation, some main downstream factories are short of raw materials, so the start-up is limited. Most manufacturers pay attention to the transportation and downstream construction conditions, and carefully wait and see the market. There is no new single delivery.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and domestic methanol market fell, with few trading volume. Due to the fact that most of the cross regional delivery vehicles have not recovered, the sales pressure of methanol enterprises in Inner Mongolia is prominent. Today, some enterprises leave the factory at 1500 yuan / ton; the main quotation in Guanzhong area is temporarily maintained at 1700 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, but the transaction is rare; some new prices in Northern Shaanxi area reach 1630 yuan / ton, and there is no transaction due to the limited logistics.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide production enterprises are stable and active, and the start-up is slightly increased, but the overall low level. At present, the freight from Shaanxi to Inner Mongolia of Lancan has increased by 60 yuan / ton, but the overall arrival of Lancan has increased. In the lower reaches of North China, there are still obvious deficiencies. In Henan, there is a planned increase of 100 yuan / ton, increasing the market wait-and-see.

3、 Future forecast

Generally speaking, the current transportation is limited and the downstream construction is at a low level, while the on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand continues. The upstream and downstream pay close attention to each other’s start-up. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to operate smoothly in the short term, and it is difficult to have large fluctuations in the short term. They focus on upstream and downstream start-up and transportation.