1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its previous downward trend last week (12.23-27). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4962 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.20% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Since December, the PVC market has shown weak performance, with prices continuously fluctuating and falling. Last week, due to the lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, The price of PVC has been declining. On the one hand, there is a lack of favorable guidance from upstream crude oil and ethylene. In addition, the declining performance of the futures market has put pressure on the spot market. The performance of the supply and demand side is loose, and the operating rate of manufacturers is generally high, with more than half of the manufacturers operating at full capacity. The supply pressure is high, and dealers generally offer low prices. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4800-5050 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since December, the price of calcium carbide has started to decline, mainly from high levels. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide rose or fell by 0 last week. But it has already fallen by more than 2% within the month, and overall, the price increase of calcium carbide market this week is weak, with limited support. Moreover, with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience a fluctuating trend.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of PVC will be weak, the operating rate of manufacturers will remain high, and both enterprise inventory and market inventory will be high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has performed poorly in the later stage, affecting the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to maintain a narrow adjustment in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in early December, the price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province rose to 3098 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% compared to the beginning of the month; As of December 27th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region was 2725 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 8.86%.

In the first week of December, dichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise, with a slight increase. The maintenance of enterprise equipment has not been restored, the manufacturer’s quotation is firm, downstream demand is insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. Inventory is under pressure, and the manufacturer’s quotation has been lowered, causing the market to fall. After a continuous decline in prices, downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods has increased, export orders have increased, and manufacturers have raised their prices accordingly.

On the supply side: It is understood that the maintenance equipment of the enterprise has not yet been restored within the month and is expected to restart soon. Another enterprise equipment will undergo maintenance in rotation. The workload for starting work next month will increase slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market continues to rise, with high holding costs, tight supply at certain stages, stable demand, and continuous destocking by enterprises. As of December 27th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2711.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.58% from the beginning of the month. The market for liquid chlorine in Shandong has experienced a wide decline, with weak demand and downward pressure. Currently, the average price is at 100 yuan/ton, and at the beginning of the month it was between 300-500 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: With the gradual recovery of downstream industry demand and the expected growth of domestic demand, especially the strong promotion of the refrigerant market, there are few annual quotas left, waiting for the restart of the new annual quota. In terms of price, external market adjustments and expected price increases in quarterly order negotiations have driven the market back into an upward channel. Today’s quotation has risen by 1000-2000 yuan/ton to 42000-43000 yuan/ton, which is expected to support the upward trend of dichloromethane market.

Business analysts believe that the fluctuation of raw materials is difficult to form support, supply is expected to increase, upward momentum is hindered, refrigerant quotas are restarted, operating loads are increasing, prices are bullish at high levels, and demand support is strong. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 26th, the styrene market fell weakly. From a news perspective, international oil prices have been fluctuating recently, with raw material prices slightly falling and news support weakening. During the off-season of demand, the market mentality is poor, downstream demand is weak, and styrene is under pressure to decline. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 18th to 25th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5250 yuan/ton to 5105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 24.79%. The price of ethanol in the domestic market has dropped significantly, with high supply and average downstream gas purchasing, causing manufacturers to continuously lower prices.

On the cost side, the market price of raw material corn is weak and falling, and the inventory of southern ports is rising. There is a lot of storage pressure, and the ports are still receiving goods one after another. Traders have a high enthusiasm for shipping, maintaining high quotes and low prices, and there is a lot of bargaining space. Recently, downstream procurement enthusiasm has been low, port transactions have been limited, and the rise in futures prices has been weak. Traders have generally lowered their quotes by 10-20 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate is rumored to be operating at a high level. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

The future market forecast shows that the spot supply is abundant, the terminal Baijiu consumption has little change, and the demand side support is limited. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 20th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9000 yuan/ton. On December 15th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9125 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (12.15-12.20), the domestic cyclohexanone market has been weak and declining. In the first ten days, the cyclohexanone market gradually rose, with a decrease in low-priced supply and a high market price. Entering this week, the cyclohexanone market has fallen from a high level, and the market focus continues to decline. As of December 20th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price in Shandong is around 9000 yuan/ton, and the cyclohexanone market price in South China is around 9250 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: Currently, downstream users of cyclohexanone are showing a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm, and are gradually becoming resistant to high priced goods. The overall market transmission is slow, and the support provided by the demand side for cyclohexanone is loose.

Supply side: Currently, the tight supply situation in the cyclohexanone field has eased, and the transmission from the supply side has slowed down, providing weak support to the market.

In terms of cost: Currently, the market for pure benzene on the raw material side has slightly weakened, and the cost support for cyclohexanone has also weakened compared to the previous period.

In terms of upstream pure benzene: On December 19th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7556.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% compared to December 1st (7338 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic cyclohexanone market is light, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The market is weak and consolidating. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and rose from December 16 to December 23, 2024. On December 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6030 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33% from 6110 yuan/ton on December 23rd. This week, the xylene market fluctuated upwards, with refinery inventories in Shandong operating at a low level and overall ex factory prices rising. The inventory of ports in East China is relatively low this week, and the overall market atmosphere is strong. Traders have a strong reluctance to sell, and the market is holding up prices. But with weak downstream procurement, the downstream’s intention to continue entering the market is slightly lower. Overall, this week’s favorable supply side has boosted the overall strength of the market, but lacks downstream support, resulting in insufficient momentum for the market to continue rising.

Cost aspect: Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The protection of OPEC+production reduction atmosphere still exists, but the pessimistic demand will still suppress oil prices. Overall, the international crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of December 20th, the settlement price of the main international crude oil futures contract was $69.46 per barrel, an increase of $0.08 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.94 per barrel, an increase of $0.06 or 0.1%.

Supply side:

On December 20th, Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary showed that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of December 20th, East China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6150-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5870 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On December 23rd, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7150 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and sold normally, with prices unchanged from December 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 20th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $805-807/ton FOB Korea and $830-832/ton CFR China, an increase of $25/ton compared to December 13th.

Market forecast: The recent trend of the crude oil market is volatile, with limited guidance for the spot market. In terms of downstream demand, there is currently insufficient momentum to continue chasing high demand, and the lack of demand support is expected to weaken the xylene market in the future

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market first rose and then fell this week. As of December 22, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6560 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% from 6380 yuan/ton on December 16.

On the supply side: Last weekend, the production unit of maleic anhydride unexpectedly shut down, causing a significant decline in the supply of liquid anhydride in the market. At the beginning of the week, the main factory price of maleic anhydride increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and dealer quotations followed suit. On weekends, factories tend to execute early week orders, while downstream customers maintain a wait-and-see attitude. New orders are limited, and the market price of maleic anhydride has fallen slightly. As of December 22nd, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated downward, and the overall n-butane market slightly declined. As of December 22, the price in Shandong was around 5200 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The unsaturated resin market has been steadily rising this week, mainly due to the rise in the market for unsaturated resin raw material maleic anhydride, which has put pressure on the cost of unsaturated resin. However, currently, the downstream demand for unsaturated resin is mainly for procurement, and the support for unsaturated resin is limited. Currently, unsaturated resin mainly relies on demand for maleic anhydride.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the high level of maleic anhydride is under pressure, and downstream companies are cautious about chasing higher prices. The market is currently paying attention to the resumption of work in maleic anhydride factories, and it is expected that the recent narrow consolidation of the maleic anhydride market will be the main focus.

The domestic acetone market fluctuates within a certain range. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported a price of 5862.5 yuan/ton since December 17th, and the negotiated price reference in the East China market was 5800 yuan/ton.

Part of the terminal factories have tendered for replenishment, and market negotiations are still acceptable. Traders’ mentality has been boosted, and there is a clear upward trend in pricing sentiment. The offers have been pushed up, but due to the fact that demand is mostly rigid, inventory intentions are not high, and the participation of intermediate traders is limited, the upward space for prices is limited. It is expected that the market will remain at 5800-5900 yuan/ton this week.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on December 17th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 5800-5850./ 50

Shandong region/ 5850./ 50

Yanshan region/ 5900./ 0

South China region/ 5900./ 0

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine is temporarily stable. On December 17th, the average market price of bromine was around 21900 yuan/ton. On December 16th, the bromine commodity index was 76.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.66% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 30.41% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of bromine has been running steadily. The price of bromine in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 21300-22000 yuan/ton. The production of equipment has stopped, and the market trading atmosphere is average. Downstream demand for flame retardants is weak, and manufacturers have sufficient supply. Imported bromine is normal, and it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices are operating steadily, with an average market price of 1714.33 yuan/ton on December 17th. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Bromine downstream flame retardants are expected to be purchased on demand in the near future. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to December 16th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9737.5 yuan/ton to 10450 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.32% during the period. The domestic butadiene market continued to rise this week. During the cycle, spot prices in ports in East China were tight, and supply expectations in the spot market were tight. This news boosted the spot market, and offers generally rose. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has strengthened, once again driving up market sentiment. However, as prices continue to rise, downstream receiving capacity gradually declines. By the weekend, the atmosphere in the spot market began to fade, and the market continued to lack upward momentum. Overall, the downstream market currently has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The butadiene market trend first rose and then stabilized during the week. Sinopec has continuously raised the price by 700 yuan/ton to 10500 yuan/ton during the cycle. As of December 16th, the delivery price in Shandong region is between 10750-10800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

On the cost side: On the one hand, the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at the December meeting, and it may be postponed until the second quarter of next year, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, weak demand in China, India, and other regions has led to continued concerns in the market about demand, which is bearish for the oil market. At present, the bearish factors in the crude oil market are intertwined, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The production reduction plans of oil producing countries may be extended, and overall, international crude oil may maintain a volatile trend. As of December 12th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.02 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.41 per barrel.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 10500 yuan/ton as of the 16th, an increase of 700 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 9800 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

The 120000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of North Huajin is operating normally, with 224 tons exported at a bidding price of 10110 yuan/ton.

The 50000 tons/year butadiene unit of Dongming Petrochemical is operating normally, with 196 tons exported and a base price of 10700 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of butadiene rubber slightly increased in the first half of December. As of December 15th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13920 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.04% from 13380 yuan/ton on December 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has risen significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted upward; Shunding rubber production is gradually increasing; Downstream all steel tire construction has started with minor adjustments. The supply price of Shunding rubber suppliers has been raised, and the quotes from merchants have been adjusted. As of December 15th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 13850-14100 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Recently, the downstream synthetic rubber market has performed well, driven by downstream demand. The spot market has strengthened recently, and holders have a strong mentality of supporting prices. However, as prices continue to rise, the enthusiasm for downstream market entry has significantly tightened. Last weekend, the market expected a batch of new products to be put into production in the near future, dragging down the atmosphere of the spot market and causing the butadiene market to rise first and then stabilize this week. Overall, there are currently bearish factors on the supply side, and it is expected that there will be a strong supply-demand game mentality in the near future. It is expected that the market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.