Review: as of February 14th closing, China fell to 7300-7500 yuan / ton, Southern China fell to 8300-8600 yuan / ton. Yesterday the glycol market narrow shocks, electronic highs, turnover of the center of gravity is moderate rebound slightly earlier.

In February 14th, two DEG U.S. prices continue to move down the center of gravity. The recent cargo offer rare offers around 820, the intention to discuss 820-830, less turnover smell.

In February 15th, Henan coal group ctmeg high quality stable price at 7800 yuan / ton, the main contract mainly for downstream polyester. Xinjiang Dushanzi petrochemical ethylene glycol unit operating stability, spot price stable, the current implementation of the 8600 yuan / ton, the products mainly supply the surrounding area. Maoming petrochemical ethylene glycol unit currently operating load is normal, stable price, the current spot local implementation of 8000 yuan / ton. Sinopec marketing company Beijing branch of the ethylene glycol price stable, Yanshan petrochemical, Tianjin petrochemical ethylene glycol spot basically no foreign sales, mutual supply of Tianjin chemical fiber, the glycol spot price at 8200 yuan / ton.

At present, Shandong Hua Lu Hengsheng glycol price 7500 yuan / ton, the main downstream for direct sales, currently 50 thousand tons of ethylene glycol plant operating normally. Of which 500 thousand tons of new ethylene glycol plant construction is wildly beating gongs and drums. Southern China area two glycol market narrow consolidation, middlemen and factory market enthusiasm is not high, sporadic negotiations in 7000-7050 yuan / ton. East China two glycol market weakness, market cautious, selling price in 6800-6900 yuan / ton, the market buying is not positive, still have to wait and see the downstream plant for raw materials prices high, trading stalemate.

Recently, the domestic ethylene glycol buyers bid partial, overall domestic market demand is insufficient, in addition, the domestic factory inquiry intent, the downstream plant is still in a slow recovery, trading enthusiasm slowed down.

The Spring Festival return, tire factory price notice again all over the sky flying, why most prices for raw materials to tire pressure. According to the monitoring data zhuochuang, as of February 14, 2017 compared to the same period last year rose 97.78%, natural rubber, styrene butadiene butadiene rose 175.93%, rose 216.34%. Zhuochuang statistics, affected by this, since October 2016, currently part of tire enterprises has reached up to 30%.

Natural rubber, natural rubber 1 months early, once again break up, HuJiao main break before the high, the highest to 21760 yuan / ton, driven by the domestic spot prices to new highs and us dollars. At the beginning of January Thailand’s main producing areas suffered flood disaster in 30 years and years ago this month to give lower stock market more positive support.

Styrene butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber in domestic market prices soared in January after finishing high, compared with the average price last month rose 26.41%. The factors driving prices rose mainly from cost, raw material supply tight to butadiene prices by 18500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month rose to 23000 yuan / ton, or up to 24% nearby, especially the first half of the price higher than the price of bread flour “led to the phenomenon of styrene butadiene rubber prices continued to increase and rose faster.

In addition, the downstream business started in the early changes, the excessive growth of prices of raw materials lead to stage of inventory of raw materials factory. At the same time, a series of sales of the company wide increase in sales of styrene butadiene rubber under pressure and control prices, billing billing rhythm, distributors are sluggish, the market price of 3000 yuan / ton profit. Although in the late spring festival market atmosphere, the downstream factory after parking, the market began to light. But the cost of the support and the day of market expectations based on optimistic month SBR market mainstream offer high consolidation to continue upward may be larger.

Butadiene rubber market in January focus wide rise, the monthly average in January last month rose 25.18%. The main factors of rising prices for butadiene tight supply, and prices continued to climb up the ladder, pushing up the cost side of butadiene type, and the majority of foreign mining companies operating butadiene difficult to maintain, and transfer to the circulation industry supply of butadiene butadiene for sparse, price rising for months, the market speculation atmosphere thick, increase profits up to 3500 yuan / ton, butadiene market atmosphere is also affected by the boost.

on the eve of the Spring Festival, the price of PTA to break the tepid situation, break in one fell swoop for more than a month interval oscillation.

After the downstream polyester plant “off” market is PTA market adds a fire PTA, the center of gravity of the price rising. The recent international oil prices are still at high oscillation, PX also maintains a stronger trend, strong cost side to provide strong backing for the PTA price, the short-term adjustment after the PTA is expected to return to the strong situation.

The cost of supporting strong

At the end of January, Japan and South Korea, two sets of equipment accident shutdown prompted Asian PX pull up sharply, although South Korea Ulsan 400 thousand tons of SK device has been restarted, but PX still strong reduction, FOB Korea price in $900 / ton wandering, PX and naphtha spreads back to 400 dollars / ton, PX production and cash flow at $50 / ton. At the end of the cost of the positive stimulus, PTA pull up the cost to 5500 yuan / ton, the average spot processing profits from negative to positive.

The two quarter PTA sales season is small, the market rumors that the first half of this year, the Far East and Xianglu Petrochemical may have to restart the program, will advance preparation, the market demand for PX increase. However, at the same time, raw material PX will usher in the peak overhaul, and relates to a device for high production capacity reached 6 million 870 thousand tons, accounting for 15% of the total capacity of PX in Asia over the same period, two years before the repair capacity of about 2000000 tons. The gap between supply and demand expansion will push up the cost of PTA, the production of PX cash flow will continue to expand.

The expected strong demand

After 2016 the main production of polyester industry, polyester filament stock will fall sharply, the fourth quarter polyester inventory days are basically in single digits, which constantly refresh the record low. From the end of last year to start this year, the polyester market to maintain high enthusiasm, in terms of price or sales are showing good situation. During the Spring Festival this year, although polyester plant maintenance strength, operating capacity of 10% higher than last year, but the low stock market has laid a good foundation, holiday effect is greatly weakened tired library.

Data show that this year’s festival, FDY, polyester POY DTY Inventory were 12, 18, 24 days after the Spring Festival last year, respectively 8, 2, 4 day low. The Spring Festival this year after the start of the polyester market across the board, all varieties of basic price put up 300 – 500 yuan / ton, with lower orders increase, PTA demand is expected to move up again.

The processing fee is significantly higher

In 2016 only 2 million 200 thousand tons of domestic hanbon petrochemical equipment production, overcapacity situation has been alleviated, but the profit of PTA production has not improved, the spot processing fees fall again. In 2014 the average spot processing fee is 588 yuan / ton, in 2015 reached 503 yuan / ton, last year is narrowed to 475 yuan / ton.

However, since 2017, the industry chain led to the good spot, profits increased gradually, the average processing cost during the year has risen to 570 yuan / ton, the processing fee is 900 yuan / ton relatively high. The higher profits will contain some more power, short term price or needs some adjustments.

However, in the long term, the upstream PX market overhaul peak, tight supply is expected to boost the cost of PTA increase, while the downstream polyester demand replenishment pull PTA positive consumption. The downstream good superposition, PTA price is expected to rise again.

fertilizer plant in succession recently, back to the production device, the whole device manufacturers operating rate in 5 around. The market demand gradually started, the market order enthusiasm slowly improved, operation support strong market to a certain extent.

This week the market price rose slightly increased potassium sulfate, the market trend is good. It is reported that the Qinghai Xinjiang Lop Nor potassium sulfate brine system device has not resumed production, the majority said this month in succession around the end of production, the factory will be finished in mid March. The price of potassium to maintain pre, 52% new varieties of the content of the new arrival price 2500 yuan / ton, 51% powder at the price at 2450 yuan / ton. Mannheim mainstream 50% powder prices in 2400-2500 yuan / ton, grain prices in 2500-2550 yuan / ton, 52% powder prices in 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

At present, the trading floor is good, the market order enthusiasm slowly improved, operation support strong market to a certain extent. In the short term is expected to run the main market strong potassium sulfate.

The year has just been finished, we began to prepare for the spring and the friends of farmers. Recently, some southern farmers have started to buy agricultural products. Recently found an interview with reporters, pesticide prices on the rise, how is this going?

The weather is not warming, who lives in Chongqing’s Riverside brother Wu early to begin preparing for spring ploughing agricultural. Brother Wu family planted 3 acres of rice, he bought mainly agricultural fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides. This year, fertilizer prices rose a lot, did not expect the pesticide prices also began to rise.

Brother Wu said: “here we have bought about agricultural pesticides, I buy less, the general use of herbicides. It is a small package and bottle, bottle with a bottle of more than and 20. This kind of packaging are rising”. Brother Wu said, the last two days, the price of a bottle of pesticide up a few bucks, not much, not much like their farming can accept. But if the planting area is large, the cost burden on some.

To reduce the amount of pesticide supply leads to higher prices

From Shandong Ji’nan Zhen Yong is a local agricultural retailer, recently, the market sale of pesticides are inventory goods, new goods to a few days. The two day, when he heard from manufacturers, the new pesticide prices will rise this year.

Zhen Yong: “I often communicate from manufacturers, they said the price will rise, and now prices have begun than last year rose to tens of dollars a piece, a bottle is 20″.

Chen Yong said, pesticide manufacturers have made this prediction, because this year the central to all chemical enterprises of environmental supervision is too strict, so many manufacturers to stop production or limited production, the supply quantity of the pesticide.

From July last year, the Central Environmental Protection Inspectorate in turn into the provinces, and set off a storm of accountability of pollution control. The intensity of the large, hitherto unknown. The influence of environmental inspectors, environmental protection standards or no environmental protection device for pesticide production enterprises have been shut down, a sharp decline in production capacity.

The pesticide raw material prices will rise at the same time

In recent years, the increasing users of composite polyurethane adhesive product quality, performance and environmental requirements, the brand awareness of enterprises in the industry continue to strengthen the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The overall trend of industry scale, intensive development, and constantly improve the industry concentration; the rapid expansion of R & D strength, a high level of technology enterprises.

The professional development

With the continuous innovation of domestic demand is gradually increasing, composite polyurethane adhesive application, according to customer requirements for product performance tailored special composite polyurethane adhesive will become the future development trend of high-end adhesive, it will put forward higher requirements of research ability and professional level of composite polyurethane adhesive production enterprises.

The import substitution trend

In recent years, in the part of the composite polyurethane adhesive products, domestic enterprises have made great progress in technology, this part gradually to replace imported products, and in the West shows giant to compete, and downstream customers to reduce their costs from the point of view, there is a strong demand to replace imported products, which also stimulated the domestic products R & D and production.

Six, the industry market competition pattern

Small and medium-sized enterprises of our country composite polyurethane adhesive industry in large quantity, widely dispersed, these enterprises in the technical level is low the product industry, products with lower profit margins in the industry, so the bottom of the Pyramid, have a small number of high-end composite polyurethane adhesive with independent intellectual property rights of the domestic enterprises, the main production technology content and higher margin products in the upper part, the industry in Pyramid; and the international giant by virtue of its strong R & D capability and brand advantages, through the establishment of a joint venture or production base in China to reduce the production cost, in the most high-end products in the market have obvious competitive advantage to achieve monopoly, the rate of technology research and development, at the top of Pyramid.

Composite polyurethane adhesive as high-end products in the industry, due to the enterprise research and development ability, technical level, sales channels and other requirements are very high, our long-term monopolized by Germany Henkel company, Dow Corning company, 3M company in the United States and other international giants, many domestic industries for composite polyurethane adhesives are dependent on imports or joint venture products. Since the last century since 90s, domestic enterprises, research institutes and other units gradually began to enter the field of product independent research and development, after many years of accumulated technology, gradually in the composite polyurethane adhesive products have independent intellectual development as the goal, to replace imports.

The field of plastic soft packaging is one of the most important applications of composite polyurethane adhesive, plastic soft packaging composite polyurethane adhesive after years of development, has its proportion of composite polyurethane adhesive production and sales reached more than 50%, with more mature markets. In 2009, China’s production of plastic flexible packaging composite polyurethane adhesive reached 215 thousand tons. At present, the domestic soft plastic packaging composite polyurethane adhesives market formed the following pattern: multinational companies most high-end products air break, domestic enterprises to improve concentration, attention segments, expand the high-end market share constantly, gradually realize the import substitution products. “Plastic composite flexible packaging adhesives Market Research” a “Chinese packaging industry”

Seven, the capacity of market analysis

In recent years, China’s sustained and rapid development of adhesive industry, production rose from 1 million 705 thousand tons in 2002 to 4 million 628 thousand tons in 2010, sales increased from 16 billion 300 million yuan in 2002 to 59 billion yuan in 2010. (source: Chinese April Adhesives Industry Association)

The adhesive industry benefited from the rapid and steady development of composite polyurethane adhesive has been rapid development in recent ten years, the average annual sales growth rate of 20%, is one of the fastest growing adhesive products. The plastic flexible packaging composite polyurethane adhesive is the main field of application, in the field of composite polyurethane adhesive for composite polyurethane total production and sales ratio of more than 50%, after years of development, plastic flexible packaging composite polyurethane adhesive has become a complete, high level of technology, market maturity of composite polyurethane rubber, in China in 2009 plastic flexible packaging composite polyurethane adhesive production of about 215 thousand tons, sales of 4 billion 350 million yuan, compared with 2008 growth of 26.47%, 21.85%.

January market prices rose after the stabilization of titanium concentrate. At the beginning of January Panzhihua titanium dioxide producers west region has been low load to resume production, and Jin Jiang Vanadium Titanium Industrial Park miners has yet to resume production, the direct supply of titanium concentrate, part of the miners price rise again, but the price rise too fast the downstream production of titanium dioxide business profits to be eaten, compressed, coupled with early many the stock, so the new price of the actual transaction is not much. Mid west Jin Jiang area has been climbing the miners to gradually resume production, another part of the miners did not resume production, one does not have the production conditions, the two is a complex condition and the choice of Chinese New Year holiday, after years of concentrated production. The lunar new year, the market trading atmosphere deserted, the actual single small, Panxi mining companies continue to enter the holiday rhythm, due to the early market inventory and supply, mine operators on the market outlook is generally optimistic, continuous production of miners is ahead of the holiday idea, some miners for shorter vacation holiday market, while the downstream part of titanium after taking off powder production and maintenance, imports of titanium have entry, titanium concentrate prices rise period is long and short cross. After the Spring Festival or the price of titanium concentrate in a smooth start, if the price of titanium dioxide have to rise, or consolidate the miners more confidence, the actual increase in power still exists, the short term, the price of titanium concentrate or the high stable operation. At present, the Panxi area above 38 grade titanium ore price in 980-1030 yuan / ton (excluding tax), 46 grade 10 titanium ore price in 1580-1650 yuan / ton (excluding tax), 47 grade titanium ore price in 1500 yuan / ton (excluding tax).

According to the General Administration of customs statistics, 2016 December China’s titanium ore and concentrate imports 238488.785 tons, an increase of 70.28%, a decrease of 26.87%. 1-12 months of 2016 total imports of 2548405.63 tons of titanium ore, representing an increase of 35.52% of total imports of 1880407.08 tons year-on-year. In 2016 December China’s titanium ore concentrate and the export volume of 901.5 tons, down 38.49%, a decrease of 28.68%, 2016 1-12 month total exports of 13154.97 tons of titanium ore, a decrease of 60.60% compared to last year the total exports of 33385.75 tons.

In January the domestic titanium dioxide prices continue to rise against the market. The business community chemical branch of titanium dioxide analyst Yang Xun said: 2017 good start, the price has long Qi is “satisfactory” state, producers and traders seem to have prices difficult to do, the price is difficult to do, always looking for buyers and find sources between parts manufacturers more tangled, on the road to complete the old order. But before the lunar new year, the high prices stabilize, market trading atmosphere is fading, the holiday market atmosphere straddle mixed, international giants, February hold up for external rendering, raw materials of titanium concentrate prices, tighter environmental capacity rare release, medium and long term market outlook bullish factors more, the short term, the price of titanium dioxide market or the high stable.

Go to the domestic market of sulfuric acid method of rutile type titanium pigment larger volume as an example, in January, titanium dioxide Market contrarian rose at the beginning of the month, the average price of 15970 yuan / ton, the average price of 16770 yuan / ton (including tax), or 5.01%. The majority of domestic sulfuric acid method of rutile and anatase titanium dioxide is the mainstream offer in 15500-16800 yuan / ton 14000-15000 yuan / ton (including tax).

In January 25th, titanium dioxide (sulfur. Kim. Plant) commodity index was 79.45, unchanged from yesterday, is the highest point in the 100 cycle (2011-09-04) fell 20.55% compared with December 29, 2015, the lowest point of 51.68 rose 53.73%. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far)

According to the general situation and trend of the market price of titanium dioxide, titanium dioxide chemical products business agency branch analyst analysis for the following reasons:

(1), the first dragon enterprises rose, Dumbledore started in 2017. In early January 2017, the price of titanium dioxide market bullish start, is also a continuation of the “inertia on 2016, Kimberly longmang led the first gun”, 700 yuan / ton rose is quite satisfactory, more than a dozen other domestic manufacturers have to follow up, mainly of rutile titanium dioxide as the main, or in the 700-1100 yuan / ton.

(2), dark rose, is really up. Some producers did not announce the price adjustment letter, but the choice of “dark rose”, according to the current market situation can be summed up in one sentence: “the letter does not necessarily truthfully release price rise, no price adjustment letter does not necessarily not rise, most manufacturers are set according to their own circumstances by posting limited price policy, price adjustment the letter” show “, most of the production business inventory is tight, the Spring Festival approaching, some large manufacturers in the annual maintenance, but also because of tight supply delayed maintenance, for the market, to the dark up is really up.

(3), after the Spring Festival in 2017 may put bad. 1 months late, the lunar new year, titanium dioxide market prices stabilize, the market gradually deserted, some manufacturers are still in the implementation of pre orders, new prices and new orders is lagging behind, the raw material of titanium concentrate prices too fast, too much, the manufacturer’s profits forced compression. At present, some traders have to advance into the holiday program, a small number of traders in the Dunning Road, from some small details, titanium dioxide market before the trend is not optimistic, in the social media such as mass advertising holding the goods, mainly reflecting the terminal customers have an ample supply of goods, before the volume shrinking, the it is also a signal, after the Spring Festival of 2017 demand or overdraft in advance, in the early part of traders have low stockpile, or after the Spring Festival holiday get together to sell or short supply peak, the market price or bad theory may.

(4), Panzhihua titanium dioxide plant to low load. Manufacturer of titanium dioxide in Panzhihua last week have low load production, for the Panzhihua region or with serious mine contraction, from the point of view on the theory of cost boost, keep up, eventually really rise or supply and demand sides.

(5), Yunnan Chang Ze to resume production. Yunnan Chang Ze “Dong Hao Kunming Titanium Industry Co. Ltd” production, R-251 will rideagain, East and Southern China are Jiangsu and Whampoa　 agent pan tiantai.

(6) in December 2016, a decrease of 1.96% China titanium dioxide exports. Provide statistical data according to the General Administration of customs, in December 2016 China’s titanium dioxide imports 21263.463 tons, an increase of 57.71%, growth of 14.74%, the month of 2016 1-12 titanium dioxide total imports 189242.33 tons, down 7.06%. In December 2016, China’s titanium dioxide exports 62006.084 tons, an increase of 11.55%, a decrease of 1.96%, 1-12 months of 2016 total exports of 720470.09 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 33.82.

In September 11th, the domestic methanol market to maintain stable prices, overall trading slightly dull atmosphere. Now Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan, Liaoning methanol prices are 10-30 yuan / ton rose. Henan local methanol continues to rise, Xinxiang the previous day rose 10-20 yuan / ton, Puyang acceptance expires earlier rose 10 yuan / ton, Luoyang, Mengzhou can offer a trader the previous day rose 20 yuan / ton, the actual turnover is slightly lower; Shaanxi area now runs smoothly, Shaanxi Xianyang chemical 600 thousand tons / year methanol plant is still in the parking overhaul, 100 thousand tons / year coking coke oven gas methanol plant in debugging. The port of Southern China port, the price is 10 yuan / ton rose.

In September 11th, methanol methanol futures opened low in early trading, intraday low of 2690 points in the afternoon near the shock finishing line, before closing slightly jumps, but still above the resistance, on fatigue, end fall, afternoon in shock consolidation trend. Zhengzhou methanol 1301 main contract opened at 2706 yuan / ton to 2708 yuan / ton, intraday trading range of 2681-2719 yuan / ton, up 0.07%, turnover of 61588 hands, 21032 hand positions, suliangjiancang.

Outside: the day before, CFR China main port price for the 358-360 USD / ton, up 4 U.S. dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia offer for 361-363 dollars / ton, up 3 U.S. dollars / ton; flat FOB US Gulf offer for 110.75-111.25 cents / gallon,; FOB Rotterdam price 293-294 euros / ton, unchanged.

The downstream market changed little, the raw material methanol needs no substantial improvement. present formaldehyde The local under the pressure of rising raw materials, prices have risen, even though the upstream demand remains to be recovered; two Ether Some manufacturers of poor profitability, the procurement of raw materials to maintain the current situation temporarily; acetic acid stable trend, manufacturers are optimistic about the market outlook, but the demand is still limited. The network that the methanol without major positive support, is expected to increase co..

Recently, Saudi Aramco CEO Khalid Falich said that Saudi Aramco plans to its oil reserves increased by 20% or 160 billion barrels. This number will exceed the United States, Russia, Britain and Brazil, Chinese currently co owned oil reserves. Saudi Aramco will continue to seek new oil and gas resources in the territory. In addition, Saudi Aramco intends to build a comprehensive export oriented industry. The company said, to find a large number of additional oil and gas resources in the conventional and unconventional resources, to make the drilling speed than it is now increased by 50% and cut the cost of drilling.