According to monitoring data from Business Society, since March, the adipic acid market has experienced a surge, a pullback, and a stable trend due to geopolitical conflicts and cost support, with an overall increase of over 30%. In early April, the rise of adipic acid continued. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on April 2nd, the average market price of adipic acid was 10833 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.52%.
How will the adipic acid market perform in April?
Supply and demand forecast
Cost side: The impact of geopolitical conflicts is still present, and the price of pure phenylcyclohexanone, an upstream raw material, still has upward momentum, which is a strong support for the rise of the adipic acid market. On April 1st, industry leader Hualu Hengsheng raised its adipic acid ex factory price by 400 yuan/ton to 11100 yuan/ton. Cost pressure is gradually spreading downstream.
Supply side: In April, there was no new production capacity in the market, and many leading domestic adipic acid enterprises were still in a shutdown state, with a market operating rate of about 60-70%. Manufacturers have no pressure to ship due to a decrease in supply, leading to an increase in reluctance to sell.
Demand side: Traditional downstream production rates such as terminal slurry, sole stock solution, PA66, TPU, etc. are low (less than 50%), making cost transmission difficult and low acceptance of high prices. Terminal demand is difficult to experience explosive growth and relatively stable.
Technical level prediction
According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend chart of adipic acid shows that the key indicator: after the March 10 moving average crossed the 20 day moving average, it had already shown a downward trend at the end of March and will continue to see an upward trend in early April. The probability of adipic acid price increase is still high. The adipic acid market will continue to oscillate at a high level throughout April, with a trend of strengthening oscillation.
Auxiliary indicators: In early April, the price of adipic acid was at a 10 day high, a 20 day low, a 10 day super rise, and a 1-year super rise. This also to some extent confirms the high volatility and upward trend of the adipic acid market in April.
In summary, the predicted supply and demand results indicate high costs, tight supply, stable demand, and a strong upward trend for adipic acid in April. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the adipic acid market rose at a high level in April, with limited gains. Therefore, the overall fluctuation of adipic acid market in April is mainly upward, and the expected price is between 10700-11500.