According to monitoring data from Business Society, since March, the adipic acid market has experienced a surge, a pullback, and a stable trend due to geopolitical conflicts and cost support, with an overall increase of over 30%. In early April, the rise of adipic acid continued. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on April 2nd, the average market price of adipic acid was 10833 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.52%.
How will the adipic acid market perform in April?
Supply and demand forecast
Cost side: The impact of geopolitical conflicts is still present, and the price of pure phenylcyclohexanone, an upstream raw material, still has upward momentum, which is a strong support for the rise of the adipic acid market. On April 1st, industry leader Hualu Hengsheng raised its adipic acid ex factory price by 400 yuan/ton to 11100 yuan/ton. Cost pressure is gradually spreading downstream.
Supply side: In April, there was no new production capacity in the market, and many leading domestic adipic acid enterprises were still in a shutdown state, with a market operating rate of about 60-70%. Manufacturers have no pressure to ship due to a decrease in supply, leading to an increase in reluctance to sell.
Demand side: Traditional downstream production rates such as terminal slurry, sole stock solution, PA66, TPU, etc. are low (less than 50%), making cost transmission difficult and low acceptance of high prices. Terminal demand is difficult to experience explosive growth and relatively stable.
Technical level prediction
According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend chart of adipic acid shows that the key indicator: after the March 10 moving average crossed the 20 day moving average, it had already shown a downward trend at the end of March and will continue to see an upward trend in early April. The probability of adipic acid price increase is still high. The adipic acid market will continue to oscillate at a high level throughout April, with a trend of strengthening oscillation.
Auxiliary indicators: In early April, the price of adipic acid was at a 10 day high, a 20 day low, a 10 day super rise, and a 1-year super rise. This also to some extent confirms the high volatility and upward trend of the adipic acid market in April.
In summary, the predicted supply and demand results indicate high costs, tight supply, stable demand, and a strong upward trend for adipic acid in April. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the adipic acid market rose at a high level in April, with limited gains. Therefore, the overall fluctuation of adipic acid market in April is mainly upward, and the expected price is between 10700-11500.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, the average market price of acetic acid was 4140 yuan/ton, an increase of 663.33 yuan/ton or 19.08% compared to the price of 3476.67 yuan/ton on March 25.
Recently (3.25-3.31), domestic acetic acid prices have risen sharply. Raw material methanol maintains a high level of operation, and cost benefits still exist to support it; The operating rate of acetic acid on the supply side has decreased narrowly, and enterprise inventory is relatively low, while market prices continue to rise; At the same time, downstream product prices in the industrial chain have shown a sustained and wide upward trend, providing strong support for acetic acid. The combination of favorable factors in the market has driven the continuous rise of the acetic acid market.
Recently, the raw material methanol market has been consolidating at a high level. As of March 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 3356.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.24% compared to the price of 3130 yuan/ton on March 25th. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, methanol imports have been reduced, futures market prices have risen, and the spot market is supported by port inventory depletion and domestic olefin enterprise procurement. Industry players have a bullish mentality, and the focus of spot prices has shifted upward. The methanol market maintains a high and volatile operation, and the increase in cost side prices has increased the pressure on vinegar.
The downstream acetic anhydride market has shown a strong upward trend, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride rising from 5605.00 yuan/ton to 6162.50 yuan/ton from March 25th to 31st, an increase of 9.95%. The production of acetic anhydride on the supply side is stable, and downstream entry into the market is mainly based on demand. The market trading atmosphere is still good, and the price trend of acetic anhydride on the raw material side is strong, with obvious cost support, driving the optimistic upward trend of acetic anhydride prices.
Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, domestic acetic acid companies have low inventory levels, and manufacturers have a strong intention to raise prices. The strong upward trend of upstream and downstream products supports acetic acid, and the market fundamentals are relatively strong. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and attention will be paid to the market supply situation in the future.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market saw a broad rise in March. On March 1st, the market price of aniline was 9145 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the price was 11362 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.25% during the period, and an increase of 41.59% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
At the beginning of the month, the situation in the Middle East remained tense, with international crude oil prices running at high levels, driving up the prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene. Pure benzene is the main raw material for aniline, and recently, the price of pure benzene has risen sharply, causing the price of aniline to skyrocket. Coupled with recent maintenance plans from major factories and low inventory levels, the price of aniline has exceeded 10000 yuan. Subsequently, the situation in the Middle East changed rapidly, with crude oil breaking through $100 and quickly rebounding, and the price of raw material pure benzene falling rapidly. Under the influence of cost, the price of aniline has been lowered. Starting from mid March, prices have steadily increased due to the impact of cost and supply and demand, reaching a high level. Downstream demand driven entry into the market, gradually accepting high-end raw materials, and the market transaction situation is still acceptable.
Pure benzene: The pure benzene market experienced a sharp rise and fall in March, influenced by the geopolitical situation, with prices deviating from fundamentals and a significant impact on market sentiment. In the future, refineries are concerned about the stability of raw material supply and have entered defensive production cuts. They are closely monitoring the situation of their peers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the short-term pure benzene market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.
3、 Future expectations
The current aniline market continues to strengthen due to cost support, coupled with major factory maintenance and supply side tightening. It is expected that the aniline market will continue to rise at a high level in the short term.