According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of thermal coal fell overall this month. On November 29, the energy index was 1114 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 28.64% from 1561 points (2021-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 118.00% from 511 points, the lowest point on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The overall price of steam coal in this month is weak. In terms of production area, affected by epidemic situation and safety reduction, coal mines are mainly responsible for long-term coal supply. In addition, the overall coal price fell by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market was average. Due to the influence of public health time, it is difficult to ship coal, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. In terms of downstream ports, traders’ quotations are weak, and they mainly take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the shipment volume of Daqin Line is still limited due to maintenance. Downstream customers are generally motivated to pick up goods, with few deals, and generally accept high prices. The daily consumption of the power plant is stable and the safety stock is maintained.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 27th that from January to October 2022, industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve an operating revenue of 111.78 trillion yuan, up 7.6% year on year. The business income of mining owners was RMB 5589.51 billion, up 22.5% year on year, and the growth rate continued to narrow. Among them, the main business income of the coal mining and washing industry was 332.036 billion yuan, up 28.8% year on year, 9.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The oil and gas exploitation industry was 1048.21 billion yuan, up 42.5% year on year; The ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 411.62 billion yuan, down 19.1% year on year; The nonferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 284.61 billion yuan, up 15.9% year on year; The non-metallic mining and dressing industry was 350.04 billion yuan, up 4.1% year on year; Other mining industries were 1.6 billion yuan, up 56.9% year on year.

Analysts from the business community believe that the overall price of steam coal fell in November, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. At present, the coal mine is still mainly guaranteed to supply coal for a long time. There are few marketable resources in the market, and the quotation of traders declines. However, with the sudden drop in temperature, the power plant still has a demand for coal replenishment. It is comprehensively predicted that steam coal will be dominated by the later or stronger operating market, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fluctuated widely in November. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 194716.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 2019500 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 3.71% and a year-on-year increase of 34.14%. In the first half of November, nickel prices rose rapidly, boosted by the historic low inventory, as the market expected the Federal Reserve’s policy to change.

Macro: In November, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that most Fed officials supported slowing down the pace of interest rate increase. The quarterly adjusted annual CPI rate of the United States recorded 7.7% at the end of October, and fell back to below 8% again seven months later, the smallest increase since January 2022; The quarterly core CPI annual rate recorded 6.3%, lower than the expected 6.50%. The final annual rate of CPI in the euro area in October recorded 10.6%, a record high. Data released by the People’s Bank of China on October 10 showed that the increase in social financing scale in October 2022 was 907.9 billion yuan, 709.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

Supply: In terms of nickel ore, the supply and demand remain weak, but the willingness to support the price of the mine is strong, which is expected to be unsustainable due to the weak fundamentals. In terms of ferronickel, the disturbance of export tax news has made Indonesian ferronickel invisible inventory flow into the market, while the demand support also continues to weaken, and ferronickel may have further room for decline.

Demand: The stainless steel output in November is expected to be 3.085 million tons, an increase of 17.4% year on year, especially the 300 series output of 1.6295 million tons, an increase of 18.6% year on year. Compared with the past, production scheduling rose again in November against the trend, boosting nickel demand. In November, the market began to enter the off-season, and the potential negative effects of the market were also emerging, that is, there was a concern of excess under the condition of high output of stainless steel and nickel sulfate.

To sum up: December will be the center of the off-season, and this year’s terminal demand will force the industrial chain to shrink more significantly. The actual production scheduling of stainless steel and nickel sulfate may eventually be difficult to achieve as expected. For nickel, the supply and demand may continue to ease. In fact, due to the continuous landing of Indonesian nickel pig iron, intermediate products and nickel matte, the market expects that nickel supply and demand will continue to be surplus in the second half of the year. Nickel price is expected to be weak in December.

On the cost side, crude oil and styrene continued to decline, and the expected inventory of pure benzene port continued to increase. In addition, the buying sentiment in the downstream was not good, so the pure benzene market had a strong negative atmosphere, and the price continued to be weak. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 6700-6850 yuan/ton.

Although the cost trend is weakening, the tightening of the supply side of the aniline market brings benefits and the price is firm. Today’s aniline market price was 10438 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day.

Price trend

The domestic PA6 market declined in late November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 14233.33 yuan/ton on November 1, and 13933.33 yuan/ton on November 25. The range of increase and decrease was -2.11% and -13.10% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure below that caprolactam in China has been in the downward channel recently, and some enterprises have recovered their caprolactam devices before, the market supply has increased, and the overall cost of PA6 has weakened.

In terms of supply: the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization enterprises was lowered, and the overall load level was about 65%. This week, the output is stable and the supply of goods is abundant. In addition, the production of new units in the early stage will also store pressure on the supply side.

Demand: In the downstream, the load of textile enterprises decreased significantly, falling to about 54% at the end of the month, and the stock of PA6 chips decreased. At the end of the current traditional peak season, the competition in the market is strengthened. The demand volume at the early stage of superposition was less than expected, and the high-end offers on the market were generally not smooth. The buyer just needs to stock up and buy cautiously, and the wait-and-see mentality is biased.

Future market forecast

The PA6 market declined in late November. The load of domestic polymerization plants has decreased by a narrow margin, and the supply is still sufficient. On the demand side, the demand is relatively weak, and the rigid demand support is weakened. The contradiction between supply and demand has a certain drag on the market. Generally speaking, the market fundamentals are weak, and the market may continue to be weak.

Trade name: cyclohexane

As of November 24, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7666.67 yuan/ton, with a narrow price range and a weak price range. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 7500 yuan/ton, down 1.71% compared with the price of the same period last week, and the focus of negotiations is low.

Future forecast: The cyclohexane market is expected to operate stably in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of November 18, spot nickel quoted 203216.67 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the beginning of the week and up 42.16% year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, the nickel price rose by 5, fell by 6, and leveled off in the past 12 weeks. Recently, the nickel price has recovered after strengthening.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

As of November 18, LME nickel inventory was 50382 tons, 426 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 4188 tons, a decrease of 7.8%.

“Oolong incident” caused LME nickel price to rise and fall sharply

On November 14, shortly after the opening of the European trading session, LME nickel suddenly surged 15% strongly, reaching the limit of 30960 US dollars/ton. However, the nickel price rose sharply and fell back to about 27500 US dollars/ton. Later, it rose again, closing at 28840 US dollars/ton, up 7.11%. The details can be found in the “Roller Coaster Market” of the “Oolong Event” Lunni Earthquake “on the Internet. Affected by the LME nickel earthquake, the nickel price also rose sharply on the 15th. Later, because of the weak support of the fundamentals, it fell back sharply. Under the influence of the “storm” of Lunyi Nickel, the upstream and downstream of the industry may have pressure conduction blocked, which is not conducive to the repair of industrial supply and demand and profits.

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve officials recently made a hawkish statement that the Federal Reserve will further increase interest rates, and the 50BP interest rate increase is also a significant increase in interest rates. Therefore, the decline of the dollar has slowed down, and metal prices are also under pressure.

In terms of supply: the arrival of rainy season, coupled with typhoon weather affecting the shipping rhythm, the Philippines’ shipments declined. In October 2022, Philippine nickel ore shipments totaled 5.115 million wet tons, down 13% month on month and up 11% year on year. The shipment volume of medium nickel ore decreased significantly compared with that of the previous month. However, domestic ferronickel enterprises have further concentrated and integrated enterprises, and the ore preparation level of large enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory feedback has increased slightly year on year.

In terms of demand: the high heat output of downstream stainless steel in November has not yet faded, and the stainless steel production is expected to fall back in December, with continuous high output. It is difficult to have a good increase in demand as a whole, and the risk of warehouse is increased. Under the loss of stainless steel, the production may be reduced, and the demand and cost will decrease. From the data, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has been lower than the output for 4 consecutive months; At the same time, from a historical perspective, January and February have been affected by the Spring Festival, which has always been the slack season for automobile sales. The output of batteries is also higher than the installed capacity. According to the survey, some battery factories experienced inventory pressure to slow down production in November, and raw material procurement showed a reduction.

To sum up, LME announced that Russia Nickel delivery would not be prohibited temporarily, and the market’s concern about overseas delivery resources eased. At the same time, market rumors of Indonesia imposing export tariffs on nickel products have been delayed. With the arrival of the off-season, the digestion pressure of the downstream stainless steel output will come, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. The sales volume of new energy vehicles also declined, and the fundamentals could not support the continuous rise of nickel. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a wide range of shocks.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3733.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3683.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 1.34%. A year-on-year drop of 27.30%. On November 20, the carbide commodity index was 96.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.53% from the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 73.92% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market fell slightly, while the price of the downstream PVC market fell slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal this weekend was about 1630-1750 yuan/ton, down 60-90 yuan/ton from last weekend. The PVC market price this week dropped from 6028.57 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6022.86 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.09%. A year-on-year decrease of 33.15%. PVC market prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Calcium carbide may fall in the market after shocks

In late November, the calcium carbide market fell mainly due to narrow shocks. The price of raw material blue charcoal fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide was insufficient, the PVC market in the downstream fell in a narrow range, and the downstream demand weakened. In late November, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may fall in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price dropping by 1.78% from 3750.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3683.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3660-3880 yuan/ton. On November 20, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 97.37, up 0.44 points from yesterday, down 32.73% from the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and up 0.68% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake was 3660-3880 yuan/ton, and the price was temporarily stable. Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3450 yuan/ton this weekend, down 200 yuan/ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3600 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3700 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3400 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate rose slightly this week, from 9162.50 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.14%, 13.98% year-on-year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 5875.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5850.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.43%, up 0.43% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fluctuated with each other, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride was average.

3、 Future market forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride market in late November was dominated by narrow shocks. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened, mainly for the purchase of steel. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

From November 11, 2022 to November 18, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzol rose, at 5723 yuan/ton last weekend and 5859 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 2.38%.

Crude oil: international crude oil futures fell sharply on November 17. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.64 dollars/barrel, down 3.95 dollars or 4.6%. WTI fell to the lowest point since October 3. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 89.87 dollars/barrel, down 3.08 dollars or 3.3%.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

November 2., 7200., – 250

November 4., 7000., – 200

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton on November 4, 2022, and the current price is 7000 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July. It has slightly warmed up in late August and early September, and fell in October and November.

The pure benzene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. At the beginning of the week, crude oil and styrene both rose, boosting the pure benzene market mentality. The pure benzene market was boosted and prices rose slightly. Near the weekend, the trend of crude oil and styrene was weak. The decline of crude oil price dragged down the mentality of the pure benzene market. At the weekend, the price of the pure benzene market decreased slightly. This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was stable. Affected by pure benzene, the hydrogenation benzene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week, basically following the trend of pure benzene. Within the week, the fluctuation was less than 50 yuan/ton, and the overall trend of the industrial chain was volatile.

The crude benzol market rose by a narrow margin this week. The bidding price of domestic mainstream production areas remained in the range of 50-100 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong, the main production area, was 5880 yuan/ton this week, up 130 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of supply, coke enterprises maintained the original production limit this week, with limited changes in the operating rate, and the overall supply was slightly strained. In the future, it is expected that the changes of the positive and negative factors in the crude benzol market in the near future are limited. It is expected that the price in the future will remain mainly in consolidation operation, with a limited range of fluctuations. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil and styrene and the commencement of the hydrogenation benzene unit.

The price of hydrazine hydrate rose slightly this week, according to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives. At the beginning of the week, the average price of hydrazine hydrate was 21166.67 yuan/ton. On Friday, the average price of hydrazine hydrate was 21333.3 yuan/ton, up 0.79%.

At present, the quotation of hydrazine hydrate enterprises has been raised, the price of raw material urea has risen sharply this week, the cost of hydrazine hydrate is acceptable, and the downstream demand continues to be light. The downstream sporadic small orders are purchased, and the manufacturer’s shipping mentality is held, and the actual order is negotiated for profit.

Hydrazine hydrate analysts from the business community believe that the domestic hydrazine hydrate cost side urea demand side recovers. It is expected that urea will continue to rise in the future, and hydrazine hydrate cost side support will continue.