Price trend

The domestic PA6 market declined in late November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 14233.33 yuan/ton on November 1, and 13933.33 yuan/ton on November 25. The range of increase and decrease was -2.11% and -13.10% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure below that caprolactam in China has been in the downward channel recently, and some enterprises have recovered their caprolactam devices before, the market supply has increased, and the overall cost of PA6 has weakened.

In terms of supply: the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization enterprises was lowered, and the overall load level was about 65%. This week, the output is stable and the supply of goods is abundant. In addition, the production of new units in the early stage will also store pressure on the supply side.

Demand: In the downstream, the load of textile enterprises decreased significantly, falling to about 54% at the end of the month, and the stock of PA6 chips decreased. At the end of the current traditional peak season, the competition in the market is strengthened. The demand volume at the early stage of superposition was less than expected, and the high-end offers on the market were generally not smooth. The buyer just needs to stock up and buy cautiously, and the wait-and-see mentality is biased.

Future market forecast

The PA6 market declined in late November. The load of domestic polymerization plants has decreased by a narrow margin, and the supply is still sufficient. On the demand side, the demand is relatively weak, and the rigid demand support is weakened. The contradiction between supply and demand has a certain drag on the market. Generally speaking, the market fundamentals are weak, and the market may continue to be weak.