Introduction: Isobutyraldehyde, also known as 2-methylpropanal, is an organic compound with the chemical formula C4H8O. It is a colorless and transparent liquid, slightly soluble in water, and soluble in ethanol, ether, benzene, chloroform, carbon disulfide, acetone, toluene. It is mainly used to manufacture rubber vulcanization accelerators, anti-aging agents, isobutyric acid, etc.

The market situation of isobutyraldehyde fluctuates widely in 2023

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market will experience a wide range of fluctuations and increases in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 6466.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 8233.33 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 27.32%. From the price trend chart of isobutyraldehyde, it can be seen that the highest price of isobutyraldehyde in 2023 was 10400 yuan/ton in early May, and the lowest price was 6466.67 yuan/ton in early January, with a maximum annual amplitude of 60.82%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased more than decreased, and the market trend showed a wide range of fluctuations and upward trends. The highest increase was 21.13% in January, and the highest decrease was 9.88% in November. In January, propylene prices skyrocketed, cost support increased, downstream operating rates increased after the holiday, and isobutyraldehyde surged by 21.13%. In February, isobutyraldehyde enterprises accumulated severe inventory, with prices plummeting by 9.27%. The trading atmosphere in the market was average in March and April, with narrow fluctuations in the isobutyraldehyde market. In early May, the spot circulation of isobutyraldehyde was tight, and the supply was urgent. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend surged by 39.91%, reaching the highest point of 10400 yuan/ton for the year. Subsequently, with the resumption of production, the market for isobutyraldehyde plummeted to 7000 yuan/ton at the end of June, a decrease of 32.69%. In the third quarter, the upstream propylene market rose, and the downstream demand for new pentanediol increased. The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated from 7000 yuan/ton in early July to 9000 yuan/ton at the end of September, an increase of 28.57%. The demand in the paint industry weakened in the fourth quarter, and the price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell. The price dropped from 9000 yuan/ton in early October to 8233.33 yuan/ton at the end of December, a decrease of 8.52%.

How will the isobutyraldehyde market develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity, data shows that the current global production of isobutyraldehyde is about 1.5 million tons. With the continuous development of the domestic chemical industry, the production capacity of isobutyraldehyde in China is also increasing. In 2017, the production of isobutyraldehyde in China was about 180000 tons, and in 2022, the production exceeded 250000 tons. The compound annual growth rate from 2017 to 2022 is about 7%. It is expected that the production of isobutyraldehyde will further increase in 2024.

From the perspective of market demand, the downstream of isobutyraldehyde is mainly neopentyl glycol. Data shows that in recent years, the overall production capacity of China’s neopentyl glycol industry has shown an upward trend, with a production capacity of approximately 520000 tons in 2022. It is expected that the demand for isobutyraldehyde will further increase in 2024.

Looking at the future: downstream demand is increasing, and the price center of isobutyraldehyde may shift upwards in 2024.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was volatile and consolidated in January. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1173.33 yuan/ton, and the lowest point on the 15th was 1153.33 yuan/ton. By the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong had dropped to 1203.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.34%. The current price has dropped by 0.28% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

In January, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region fluctuated and stabilized. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has had relatively small fluctuations in the past three months, and this month’s market has slightly declined before rising. As of January 29th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. In January, the raw material methanol market first fell and then rose, and the price of formaldehyde basically followed the changes in methanol. However, downstream board factories had poor demand, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations was weak, making it difficult for transactions to improve, putting pressure on formaldehyde manufacturers.

Upstream methanol situation: In December, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. The decline at the beginning of the month was due to an increase in domestic supply, which led to a bearish market mentality. Some methanol production enterprises lowered prices and offered discounts to ship, but the upstream inventory was high and the purchasing sentiment was average, resulting in weak methanol procurement prices. The increase after mid month is due to the limited availability of circulating spot goods in society, combined with the impact of weather and other factors on unloading speed. At the same time, the transportation cost from the northwest production area to the sales area market has increased, leading to a significant increase in domestic methanol prices. As supply gradually recovers, downstream receiving sentiment is average, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has slightly rebounded, and cost support is still acceptable. However, downstream board factories have taken early leave, resulting in poor demand. Formaldehyde manufacturers have allowed profits to continue the market. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline slightly in the near future.

Price trend

This week, the domestic ABS market continued to rise, with many spot prices of various brands increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10862.50 yuan/ton, a+1.88% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Supply side: In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry saw a high level of load reduction. This week, some enterprises underwent maintenance, and the load continued to decrease. Recently, the operating rate of ABS aggregation enterprises has been lowered to around 62%, resulting in a decrease in weekly production and a decrease in inventory positions. Although the profit situation of the enterprise has not improved, there has been some improvement in supply side pressure.

In terms of raw materials, the recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, with the acrylonitrile market mainly consolidating. The price of propylene, the raw material, continues to rise, providing sufficient support for the cost of acrylonitrile. In the early stage, the supply of acrylonitrile was relatively loose, and the current market is buying coldly. The pre holiday stocking volume is average, and the market is balanced between long and short positions, with prices mainly being sideways.

This week, the domestic butadiene market remained stable and relatively strong. Recently, the prices of foreign and domestic suppliers have shown strong performance, supporting the mentality of merchants to offer. In addition, as the holiday approaches, downstream companies are gradually restocking and stocking up before the holiday, and transactions have followed up, which has boosted the market. However, the downstream product market is not performing well, with some industries still showing inverted profits. The butadiene market is mainly consolidating and observing.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has risen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, with strong cost support. The increase in maintenance of styrene units has led to a contraction in market supply. The transaction in the market is still good, and the market continues to rise.

In terms of demand: This week, the main ABS terminals, including downstream factories in the home appliance industry, showed average stocking enthusiasm. The main logic revolved around buying in essential demand and digesting inventory. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have increased their holiday arrangements, and their procurement operations tend to be weak and in need of maintaining production. The midstream ships at high prices, with average spot circulation, and the demand side helps stabilize the market.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials has been relatively strong, providing increased support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in production, further reducing supply pressure. On the demand side, consumption is average, and merchants are reporting higher due to supply contraction and upstream rise. The trading in the future market may gradually weaken, but it is expected that the ABS market will be stronger in the short term due to various positive factors.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, starting from mid January, terminal demand has been weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market has been continuously declining. On January 15th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 823 yuan/ton. On January 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.64%.

Poor terminal demand, continued weak and declining hydrogen peroxide market

Since mid January, the terminal paper market has continued to decline, and the demand for purchasing hydrogen peroxide in the paper and printing industry has declined. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lack confidence in raising prices, and the market is moving slowly. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market has been mainly weak and declining, and the market has been declining. As of January 24th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is around 780 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Anhui region is 880 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 40 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that the demand in the terminal paper and printing industry is sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to decline weakly in the future.

An increase in the price of acetic anhydride

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of acetic anhydride was 5862.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% compared to January 15, which was 5837.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of acetic anhydride on January 19 last weekend, which was 5825 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64%, acetic anhydride equipment stopped, acetic acid supply decreased, acetic anhydride enterprises suspended production, acetic anhydride enterprises had insufficient supply, and acetic anhydride prices increased.

An increase in the price of acetic acid

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% compared to the 3200 yuan/ton price on January 15. Several acetic acid manufacturers in Ningxia, Shandong, and Hebei have experienced equipment shutdowns or load reductions, resulting in a tightening of acetic acid supply and an increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data Analyst believes that the production of acetic acid enterprises has decreased, the supply of acetic acid has tightened, the price of acetic acid has increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. The acetic anhydride equipment has been shut down, resulting in a decrease in the supply of acetic anhydride. Overall, the tight supply of acetic anhydride has led to an increase in costs, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rise in the future.

Product name: Sulfuric acid

Latest price (January 22): 187.50 yuan/ton

On January 22nd, the domestic sulfuric acid market price dropped significantly, with a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to January 19th, a decrease of 9.64%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.98%. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Multiple bearish factors led to a sharp decline in the sulfuric acid market.

It is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price will slightly decline in the future, with an average market price of around 170 yuan/ton.

The liquid epoxy resin market is showing signs of fatigue, with prices continuing to decline. On January 19th, the market quoted factory price of purified water hovered between 12700 and 13000 yuan, and the quoted price in Shandong region was as low as 12600 to 12900 yuan/ton of purified water.

The raw material side experienced narrow fluctuations, and the bisphenol A market saw a narrow upward trend. The quoted price was around 9400-9550 yuan/ton. On Tuesday, due to the strong performance of pure benzene, the price of phenolic ketones rose, and under market pressure, the bisphenol A market rose. On Monday, the bidding for Zhejiang Petrochemical was suspended, and the starting price for enterprise premium product delivery was 9300 yuan/ton. The second round of bidding reached 9350 yuan/ton. The quotation for epichlorohydrin is around 8100-8200 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has not shown signs of improvement, leading to an increasingly stagnant trading atmosphere on the exchange. It is currently unclear when the sluggish state of the liquid epoxy resin market will usher in a turning point.

The domestic phenol market has continued to rise, with Sinopec East China phenol prices executing at 7150 yuan/ton and Sinopec North China phenol prices executing at 7200 yuan/ton. The focus of phenol is on the rise, supported by high levels of raw material pure benzene. Traders are strongly inclined to support prices due to the support of raw materials, with further upward expectations. Looking downstream, terminal factories are cautious in chasing price increases, with low buying enthusiasm and mainly offering in demand. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will operate at a high price, focusing on the supply and demand fundamentals and market trading situation. The reference price for the East China phenol market is between 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 5400.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.26%. The lowest point was 4650.00 yuan/ton on July 2, and the highest point was 5487.50 yuan/ton on September 10, an increase of 18.01%.

Polyformaldehyde

The market situation of polyformaldehyde in Shandong Province in 2023 showed an N-shaped pattern. From the above chart, it can be seen that formaldehyde has been on an upward trend for three months in 2023, with the highest monthly increase in July reaching 15.05%. The increase in July is mainly due to good downstream demand, active procurement, and a shortage of polyformaldehyde supply, resulting in a significant increase in the polyformaldehyde market. Formaldehyde has been on a downward trend for 9 months in 2023, with the largest decline occurring in May, reaching 6.05%. The main reason for the decline is the continuous decline of raw material methanol, with downstream production at a low level and oversupply, leading to a weak decline in the market for polyformaldehyde.

Upstream methanol situation: In 2023, the domestic methanol market showed an “M” – shaped trend, with two obvious “ups and downs” cycles throughout the year. The “high point” of prices in February and March is mainly due to the joint support of costs and demand. Some coal mines have cleared their inventory in the early stage, and terminal procurement is relatively active. There is a significant increase in transportation vehicles, coupled with the impact of sudden related accidents. In the short term, coal prices may rise. Downstream acetic acid: demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream chloride: chloride demand or decrease. The temporary storage of methanol demand is favorable. The methanol market has seen a dual positive rise. The lowest price is in mid June, and the support for methanol production costs has weakened. Traditional demand has entered the off-season, and demand is weak. At the same time, some methanol parking facilities have recovered. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient. From the above figure, it can be seen that methanol and formaldehyde have maintained the same curve throughout the year. The market trend of methanol has a guiding effect on polyformaldehyde.

Recently, the circulation of methanol has been restricted, and the market has shown a fluctuating upward trend. Cost support is good, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly increase.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have mostly remained stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 15th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13050 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the formaldehyde market prices in Shandong region have fluctuated and fallen recently, with raw material methanol prices fluctuating and poor cost support. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream board factories are taking early leave, and demand continues to decline. The formaldehyde market is mainly experiencing a slight decline.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has rebounded. The industry equipment load is approximately 84%. There are relatively few maintenance arrangements in the future, and it is expected that POM production will remain at a high level. Fortunately, the inventory position of most enterprises is still not high, and the supply side still has sufficient support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

Recently, downstream POM enterprises in China have been operating at a poor level, with companies mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption continued to be weak. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. Although there may be pre holiday stocking operations in the near future, overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is weak.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the POM market remained stagnant. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has increased, and the inventory position of enterprises is low, resulting in moderate pressure on the supply side. Manufacturers have stabilized market confidence through strong market operations, but some merchants are under high shipping pressure. On the demand side, terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and may continue to have holidays before holidays, leading to a decrease in load. Purchasing operations are cautious, and they are resistant to high priced goods, resulting in weak on-site trading. It is expected that the POM market may operate weakly in the near future.