The asphalt market in Shandong has risen by 15 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions have remained stable. Currently, the asphalt supply and demand markets are relatively weak. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3445 yuan/ton on November 28th, an increase of 0.26%.

The daily operating load of asphalt enterprises is around 30%, with a slight decrease. From the demand side, at the end of the peak season, due to the influence of cold air, seasonal shutdowns have occurred in northern regions, while some southern regions have year-end opening tasks. The terminal mainly consumes social inventory.

From the perspective of Business Society, the current operating rate is low, and social supply remains low. However, during the off-season of demand, the impact on society is relatively small, and short-term asphalt stabilization operations are necessary.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and rose in November, with an increase of nearly 4%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 733 yuan/ton. On the 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.64%.

Long Short Game: November Hydrogen Peroxide Market oscillates upwards

Starting from November, the demand for terminal rigidity has been weak, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide are generally average. The supply of hydrogen peroxide is loose, and negative factors have suppressed the market. The overall quotation is 650-750 yuan/ton. Since November 11th, there has been a decrease in terminal demand, leading to a decline in manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide and negative pressure. The hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, with an overall quotation of 700-720 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, terminal rigid demand rebounded, hydrogen peroxide supply tightened, and the market rebounded. The average market price rose to 760 yuan/ton, with a price increase of over 5%.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that in December, the rigid demand for terminal hydrogen peroxide is not good, and the future hydrogen peroxide market may operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine is running steadily. On November 26th, the average market price of bromine was around 22400 yuan/ton. On November 11th, the bromine commodity index was 78.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.94% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.40% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of bromine has been running steadily, with prices in the Shandong region temporarily stable. The mainstream market price is around 22000-23000 yuan/ton, and the equipment is running smoothly with normal supply. The market trading atmosphere is calm, and in terms of demand, the main downstream flame retardant procurement enthusiasm is high. However, the overall supply-demand game price is running steadily. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices are operating steadily, with an average market price of 1637.67 yuan/ton on November 26th. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. Downstream flame retardants have a high level of enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases, which has boosted the overall market trend. Downstream inquiries are also more active in the supply-demand game. Overall, it is predicted that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 25th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 12120 yuan/ton, which was basically stable compared to November 8th. Compared with November 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 12070 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (11.15-11.20), the overall stable operation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has been the main trend. However, due to the recent opening price drop of nearly 800 yuan compared to the beginning of the month for the main futures contracts, the actual trading center of some other grades of silicon metal in the spot market has slightly weakened. As of November 20th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11900-12400 yuan/ton.

Data analysis

In terms of production and operation: The newly built metal silicon production capacity in the northern region is steadily being put into operation, and the current metal silicon production is still in a state of high in the north and low in the south. During the month, the overall operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang remained at 85-87%. Yesterday, the operating rate remained at a high level, with most silicon enterprises mainly delivering orders and the overall inventory increase was not significant. The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Yunnan region is between 47-49%, with the main production area coming from Baoshan, Yunnan. The overall operating rate is at a relatively low level. Although Yunnan silicon enterprises have the willingness to clear inventory, they are limited by the current market situation, with low prices and overall shipping enthusiasm. The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Sichuan region is between 33-35%, maintaining this low level. Most silicon enterprises have started to reduce production and shut down their furnaces since the end of October. Some other silicon enterprises may still have plans to continue shutting down their furnaces this month. The overall operating rate and output are both at a low level.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the silicon metal market is in a weak state of supply and demand. Although the downstream demand performance is average, the overall operating rate and production are not high, so the pressure on the supply side is not significant, and the supply side is in a state of slight inventory accumulation.

Upstream aspect: Currently, the upstream raw material silica market for metallic silicon is operating steadily, with silica mines mostly shipping on a single schedule. Currently, the overall supply of silica is relatively loose, and the demand for raw material silica in the downstream metallic silicon market is relatively average. Overall trading in the silica market is relatively light. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is referred to as 360-390 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of low-grade silica ore is referred to as 260-280 yuan/ton.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic silicon metal market is relatively quiet. With the overall expectation of on-site construction continuing to decline, the pressure on the silicon metal supply side is controllable. Although the transmission performance between supply and demand is still average, it will be able to maintain weak stability. The silicon metal data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be monitored.

Epichlorohydrin continues to rise this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% compared to the beginning of this month (8625 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The prices of propylene and liquid chlorine at the raw material end are still supported. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6768.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: In early October, Jiangsu Haixing Chemical, a leading enterprise in epoxy chloropropane production, stopped maintenance of its 130000 tons/year propylene method epoxy chloropropane unit.

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin demand is mainly based on small orders, and the raw material side continues to rise. The cost of epoxy resin is supported, and suppliers are cautious in purchasing, resulting in low enthusiasm for inquiries.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that the cost side price support is still acceptable, with downstream rigid demand procurement as the main focus, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and cautious procurement of raw materials. In addition, leading enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the market supply is tight. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market may rise slightly in the short term, and more attention should still be paid to changes in market prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 19th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5740.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% compared to the price of 5773.33 yuan/ton on November 11th. Due to weak downstream demand, significant inventory pressure from manufacturers, and bearish market sentiment, the ethyl acetate market is running weakly.

In mid November, the domestic price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. The rise in raw material prices in the early stage has boosted the market sentiment of ethyl ester, and manufacturers’ quotations have slightly followed suit; In the later stage, downstream demand showed weak performance, the market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the rise in raw material prices did not bring effective benefits. Manufacturers still face significant pressure to ship, and inventory has accumulated. In order to promote transactions, the main factories have continuously lowered their quotations. Under the supply-demand game, the overall weak and orderly operation of ethyl acetate.

In the future, with the continuous decrease in the price of ethyl acetate, downstream purchasing sentiment has increased, and the pressure on manufacturers has weakened. Some manufacturers have slightly increased their quotes, and the mentality of the industry is good. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to rise in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and declining recently (11.11-11.18). As of November 18th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.46% from 17184 yuan/ton on November 11th. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high and have fallen. As of November 18th, the price of Thai glue was 68.10 baht/kg, a significant decrease from 73.17 baht/kg on November 11th; As of November 18th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 17000 yuan/ton, a significant decrease from 17600 yuan/ton on November 11th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of November 10, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 415900 tons, an increase of 2900 tons compared to the previous period.

The downstream tire production is basically stable, and the demand is mainly supported by the natural rubber market’s essential needs. As of November 15th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: The current high supply prices of raw materials both domestically and internationally are expected to decline; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has slightly increased; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience a weak correction in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7766.67 yuan/ton. As of November 19th, the domestic cyclohexane market has been operating narrowly and weakly, with market transaction prices maintained at around 7900 yuan/ton, mainly affected by upstream and terminal factors. The cyclohexane price has dropped by 0.43% compared to the same period last week. Currently, there is sufficient spot supply of cyclohexane, and follow-up is cautious.

2、 Market analysis

Market wise: Currently, the upstream market has relatively weak support for the cyclohexane market, and the supply side of the cyclohexane market is relatively loose. The overall demand in the downstream market is poor, with a small amount of shipments. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, and industry players are cautious and cautious, with low purchasing sentiment.

In terms of cost: At the beginning of last week, international crude oil and pure benzene prices fell both, and upstream prices fell, driving the cyclohexane market to continue to weaken. Currently, the pure benzene market is operating in a narrow range of fluctuations, with supply and demand in the market, and inventory is operating normally with narrow fluctuations. Northern market quotations have declined, with low prices frequently appearing. Port pickups in East China have been smooth, and overall market buying has rebounded so far.

Downstream: The downstream market for cyclohexanone continued to show a weak trend, with the overall decline slowing down at that time. Currently, the overall market is in a state of supply and demand balance, with low prices increasing and prices mainly concentrated between 8600-8700 yuan/ton. Downstream demand performance is poor, and production enterprises have weakly lowered their offers. Industry players lack information on the future market, and they are cautious in following up, showing a mentality of buying up and not buying down.

In terms of demand, downstream prices of caprolactam are mainly weak, and the industry’s supply capacity has increased. Currently, the operating rate of caprolactam can reach about 85%, and there is sufficient supply of goods. There is some pressure on inventory, and the price of caprolactam will continue to maintain a weak trend during the week. It is expected that the price will maintain the current trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, the cyclohexane supply side is relatively sufficient, downstream demand is limited, and the overall market is mainly focused on essential procurement. The mentality of the industry is still weak and the current profit situation is not optimistic. The industry lacks confidence in the future market, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with stable and weak operation as the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 8th to November 15th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11287.5 yuan/ton to 10162.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 9.97% during the period. This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, with the production of facilities in Tianjin on the supply side, and market expectations for loose supply in the future. The port inventory in East China is also high, and overall there are many negative factors on the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong. The lack of demand support has led to a weak trend in the butadiene market this week, and Sinopec has lowered the price to 10200 yuan/ton. As of November 15th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region was 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost wise: As of November 16th, WTI’s December crude oil futures were reported at $67.02 per barrel, a 4.77% decline for the week. Brent crude oil futures for January were reported at $71.04 per barrel, down 3.83% this week. After the US election, the US dollar exchange rate continued to rise, putting pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, the market expects strong support for the oil and gas industry to reduce inflation and achieve energy independence during the campaign. The market expects an increase in US crude oil production, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil oversupply will reach over 1 million barrels per day by 2025. Affected by this, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend this cycle.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is currently at 10200 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 800 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Sinopec Ineos (Tianjin) Petrochemical Co., Ltd.’s 170000 ton/year plant has been put into operation, and some of the goods are currently exported; Recently, there has been sufficient supply of goods at the port, and the spot market for butadiene is also well supplied, resulting in an overall bearish supply situation.

Demand side: Recently (11.8-11.15), the overall trend of the styrene butadiene rubber market has been weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the styrene butadiene rubber market in Shanghai has been weakly declining. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted at a low level, with downstream inquiries and small orders being the main focus. Business offers have been adjusted downwards, with mainstream quotes for Qilu, Jihua, Yangzi, Fushun, and Yibang styrene butadiene 1502 around 15050~15500 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak, and port cargo sources have continued to accumulate recently. New facilities in North China have been put into operation. And export, making the market supply more relaxed. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been generally weak in recent times. Overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5773.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70% compared to the price of 5933.33 yuan/ton on November 1st. Due to weak downstream demand and declining raw material prices, there is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, leading to a continuous decline in the ethyl acetate market.

Since November, the price of ethyl acetate in China has been continuously declining. Downstream demand is weak, and cautious observation is the main focus. Manufacturers’ shipments are hindered, inventory continues to accumulate, and the mentality of the main factories is poor. The quotation for ethyl acetate continues to decline. At the same time, the raw material acetic acid market is declining, and the cost side is bearish, which is transmitted to the end market and affects downstream buying. Trading in the market is weak, and the focus of ethyl acetate transactions continues to shift downwards. On the 11th, the main factory stopped, downstream buying increased, and the price of ethyl acetate slightly rose.

In the future, there will be equipment shutdowns in the ethyl acetate market, a decrease in the supply side, an increase in bullish sentiment within the market, a wait-and-see attitude in downstream markets, and a follow-up in market demand, which will relatively reduce inventory pressure on manufacturers and increase market benefits. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain strong in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to changes in upstream market conditions and downstream follow-up situations.