According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 8th to November 15th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11287.5 yuan/ton to 10162.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 9.97% during the period. This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, with the production of facilities in Tianjin on the supply side, and market expectations for loose supply in the future. The port inventory in East China is also high, and overall there are many negative factors on the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong. The lack of demand support has led to a weak trend in the butadiene market this week, and Sinopec has lowered the price to 10200 yuan/ton. As of November 15th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region was 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost wise: As of November 16th, WTI’s December crude oil futures were reported at $67.02 per barrel, a 4.77% decline for the week. Brent crude oil futures for January were reported at $71.04 per barrel, down 3.83% this week. After the US election, the US dollar exchange rate continued to rise, putting pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, the market expects strong support for the oil and gas industry to reduce inflation and achieve energy independence during the campaign. The market expects an increase in US crude oil production, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil oversupply will reach over 1 million barrels per day by 2025. Affected by this, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend this cycle.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is currently at 10200 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 800 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Sinopec Ineos (Tianjin) Petrochemical Co., Ltd.’s 170000 ton/year plant has been put into operation, and some of the goods are currently exported; Recently, there has been sufficient supply of goods at the port, and the spot market for butadiene is also well supplied, resulting in an overall bearish supply situation.

Demand side: Recently (11.8-11.15), the overall trend of the styrene butadiene rubber market has been weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the styrene butadiene rubber market in Shanghai has been weakly declining. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted at a low level, with downstream inquiries and small orders being the main focus. Business offers have been adjusted downwards, with mainstream quotes for Qilu, Jihua, Yangzi, Fushun, and Yibang styrene butadiene 1502 around 15050~15500 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak, and port cargo sources have continued to accumulate recently. New facilities in North China have been put into operation. And export, making the market supply more relaxed. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been generally weak in recent times. Overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.