Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 7950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95% compared to the price on July 1st (reference price of epichlorohydrin was 7875.00 yuan/ton).

The market price of epichlorohydrin increased slightly in July. At the beginning of the month, the cost support was strong, and production enterprises mainly focused on delivering orders. The price of propylene method remained firm, and the low-priced supply in the market decreased. In the traditional off-season of terminals, downstream customers mainly followed up with small orders and urgent needs. Entering the second half of the month, there is still cost pressure, with the capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry below 50%. Manufacturers are not pressing down on prices, and downstream companies are cautious about following up on high-end prices. Market transactions are mainly driven by essential needs, and the focus of market negotiations is firm. In the latter half of the year, production enterprises mainly deliver contract orders, and terminal follow-up is relatively slow. Downstream demand is mainly focused on low demand follow-up. The negotiation range for epoxy chloropropane market is sorted out, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Upstream propylene: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the reference price of propylene was 7098.25, a decrease of 0.49% compared to July 1st (7133.25). In July, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated slightly, providing some support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Market forecast:

Short term costs and supply side support are still acceptable, with downstream demand buying being the main trend. The market atmosphere is deadlocked, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will remain stable with small movements in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton or 0.82% compared to the reference price of 8133 yuan/ton on July 22.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in late July (7.22-7.29), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China, showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend. As of July 29th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 8000-8200 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

On the demand side: In late July, there was a slight stocking of downstream demand for n-butanol, and the good performance in demand provided support for the n-butanol market. The n-butanol market rose slightly, but with the recovery of calm demand, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market became lighter, and the n-butanol market also began to decline.

On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply performance of n-butanol in the market is sufficient, with loose spot inventory, and limited market support from the supply side for n-butanol.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is light, with downstream essential purchases being the main focus. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China will mainly experience narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 22nd to 26th, the domestic ethanol price rose from 5995 yuan/ton to 6012 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.59% during the period. Due to the suspension of some factory facilities and reduced inventory pressure, ethanol prices have slightly increased. The overall downstream purchasing is flat, demand remains sluggish, and trading volume is limited.

On the cost side, with high temperatures and frequent rainfall in the production area, traders are more proactive in shipping, resulting in weak short-term fluctuations in corn prices. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.

Demand side, Baijiu consumption off-season; Methyl ethyl ester is operating at full capacity this week. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Market forecast: Negative impact on cost, sluggish demand leading to market shipment obstruction. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.02% compared to the same period last month, a decrease of 3.53% compared to the beginning of July, and a stable price compared to last week.

Market situation: Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market price has remained stable. Upstream product prices are mainly consolidating, with the main raw material methanol price falling, and the cost support is average. The supply side is mainly stable, while downstream is mostly off-season, with low enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement, poor demand performance, and pressure on enterprise shipments.

In terms of cost: Upstream caustic soda prices were weak last week (7.15-7.20). According to monitoring data, the average market price in Shandong was around 817 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and by the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 809 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.7%; Upstream liquid ammonia, on July 22nd, the reference price of liquid ammonia was 2799, an increase of 0.59% compared to July 15th (2783); Upstream methanol, according to monitoring data, the domestic methanol market price on July 22 was 2497 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.95% from July 15.

The formic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent fluctuations in raw material prices and average demand performance suggest that the formic acid market is expected to remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market has seen a slight increase in recent days (7.12-7.19). On July 19th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13% from 7830 yuan/ton on July 12th. This week, the mixed xylene market experienced mixed ups and downs, but the overall volatility was limited. Prices in the South China region decreased by about 50-100 yuan/ton, while prices in the East China and Shandong regions slightly increased by 10 yuan/ton. During the week, the port inventory in East China was low, and the supply of xylene in Shandong slightly declined. With the support of tight supply, the market price slightly increased. However, due to the overall increase in inventory within the region, the market atmosphere in southern China is slightly weak, and market prices are generally declining.

Cost side: Crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply and demand game of crude oil will continue to play a role, and the supply side will be supported by the geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control. There is uncertainty on the demand side in the future, and in the short term, there will be some pressure on demand due to extreme weather conditions in the United States; In addition, the condition during peak driving season still needs further inspection. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to further developments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, which will provide directional guidance for the future demand for crude oil. Overall, under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and the amplitude may increase with the frequent occurrence of market news factors. As of July 19th, international crude oil futures have plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.64 per barrel, a decrease of $2.66 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $2.48 or 2.9%.

Supply side: As of July 19th, Sinopec’s xylene quotation is stable, the company is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the production and sales are stable, and the company’s quotation is the same as the previous day. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7900 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7800 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7950-8000 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7700 yuan/ton.

Demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market has fallen this week. As of July 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 8075 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.15% from the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 12th. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7800-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7550 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a production rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated slightly and fell, and the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market fell. The ortho benzene market stabilized, and the cost support led to a slight decline in the ortho benzene phthalic anhydride market.

As of Friday (July 19th), the Asian xylene market closed down, with FOB Korea closing at $906-908/ton in August, a decrease of $6/ton; In August, CFR China closed at $932 per ton, a decrease of $6 per ton.

Market forecast: The fundamentals of the crude oil market still have support, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and cost support still exists. The tight supply situation in Shandong region will continue for some time, but currently downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, and the market atmosphere is wait-and-see. In the near future, some goods from the East China region will arrive at the port, and the tight supply situation will be improved to some extent. However, the market atmosphere in the southern region of China is significantly weak, and overall, the atmosphere in the xylene market is weak. It is expected that prices will remain stable and weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 15th to 19th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2573 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.85% during the period, a month on month decline of 1.19%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.13%. The domestic methanol market has fallen from a high level, and the overall downstream demand has remained weak in recent times. Traders hold sufficient supply of goods.

As of the close on July 19th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2519 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2528 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2491 yuan/ton. It closed at 2493 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton or 1.27% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 574613 lots and a position of 766640 lots. The daily increase was 34997.

As of July 19th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2290 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2770 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2465 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2350-2355 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost, most coal mines in the production area are currently maintaining normal production in the middle of the month, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level remains stable. The recent upward trend in port prices has been temporarily suspended, and downstream terminal inventories are high. Many traders are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards market resources, and most traders are cautious in their purchasing pace. There are fewer vehicles transporting to the mine, and coal mines are adjusting their pithead prices narrowly based on their own sales situation, with an overall focus on stability. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: Tianli High tech has plans to start production, and MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream chlorides: Mainstream factories in Shandong have increased demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Decreased demand for acetic acid. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, maintenance of Inner Mongolia Chifeng Boyuan, Shaanxi Changqing, Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), and Yunnan Pioneer Equipment; Inner Mongolia’s new Olympic plant reduces production; Guizhou Tianfu, Xufeng Heyuan, and Shaanxi Shenmu installations have been restored. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close on July 18th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $350.00- $351.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 104.00-105.00 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 322.75-323.75 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 350.00-351.00 USD/ton/ -2 USD/ton

Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 104.00 to 105.00 cents per gallon/ -1 cent/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 322.75-323.75 euros/ton/ 1 Euro/ton

In the future forecast, the price of raw coal is slightly insufficient to drive methanol, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Although traditional downstream demand has increased, the magnitude is still limited. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly consolidate weakly.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 17th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 12760 yuan/ton, which was lower than July 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 13210 yuan/ton), and the price was 450 yuan/ton in the summer, a decrease of 3.41%.

Since July, the domestic silicon metal market has shown an overall downward trend. The effective support within the silicon metal market is insufficient, and the market price center continues to move towards lower levels. As of July 17th, the domestic silicon metal # 441 market price reference is around 12600-12800 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: In July, the metal silicon market entered a period of high demand, and the production of metal silicon devices continued to increase. Currently, the overall operating rate is at a high level, and the supply side has sufficient supply. Some regions are under pressure to ship, and the support provided by the supply side to the metal silicon market is limited.

On the demand side: Currently, although the market price of silicon metal supply continues to decline, the overall response of downstream demand is still average. Downstream purchasing is cautious, and the overall supply and demand transmission is slow. The cautious demand support provided by the demand side is weak.

Downstream: Since July, the downstream organic silicon DMC market of metal silicon has shown a weak downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the organic silicon DMC market was weak and adjusted slightly, and the overall market adjustment was not significant. The overall quotation of the organic silicon DMC market remained stable. Later, as the middle of the month approached, Shandong’s organic silicon DMC major factories broke the calm and lowered the price of organic silicon DMC by 13400 yuan/ton, driving the overall market trend to explore downward. As of July 16th, the domestic market price reference for organic silicon DMC is around 13300-13700 yuan/ton.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively weak. Affected by the negative market trend of continuous decline, many metal silicon industry players are closing down and not reporting, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The overall stimulus given to downstream demand market by the continuous decline in the market is still average. The improvement of the weak supply of metal silicon is still not obvious. The metal silicon data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate weakly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

Last week (July 8-14, 2024), downstream demand was flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The raw material dissolution slurry market remained generally stable, while adhesive short fiber enterprises had tight inventory and stable operation of adhesive short fiber, resulting in stable prices. The downstream cotton yarn market has weak production, and the overall market is still dominated by rigid demand procurement. There is no obvious sign of improvement on the demand side. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly execute shipments, and the overall market delivery speed is stable.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable last week (July 8-14, 2024). As of July 14th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

In terms of supply, the production of adhesive short fiber factories has remained stable, with an industry operating load rate of around 78%. Some adhesive short fiber factory orders have been signed until mid to late July, and overall shipments are still relatively tight, which has a positive boost to the market.

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolution slurry remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolution slurry for domestic enterprises is referenced at 7700 yuan/ton, and the price for external markets is referenced at 940 US dollars/ton. The price of auxiliary raw material sulfur sulfonic acid continues to rise, providing favorable support for the cost of adhesive short fibers. And the adhesive short fiber industry is in a narrow loss state, with factories showing reluctance to sell at low prices.

On the demand side, the profits of downstream cotton yarn factories have been compressed, and there is a strong resistance to the price increase of viscose staple fibers. The downstream cotton yarn market is relatively weak in keeping up with the rising raw materials, so they purchase viscose staple fibers on demand.

Future forecast

The weak terminal demand continues, and the operating rate of downstream cotton yarn factories is not high. The cotton yarn market may be lukewarm. With the arrival of high temperatures, downstream cotton yarn factories may also reduce production, and the demand for viscose staple fibers lacks favorable support. However, some adhesive short fiber factories have relatively sufficient orders, and the sentiment of low price reluctance to sell may still exist, resulting in relatively firm offers. The inventory of adhesive short fiber enterprises may remain at a low level in the short term, and the tight delivery situation of adhesive short fiber factories may not be easily changed in the short term, which will have a boosting effect on the market. The market price of raw material dissolution slurry remains stable, providing stable support for the cost end of adhesive short fibers. Overall, it is expected that the market for adhesive short fibers will remain stable in the short term, with limited price fluctuations. The price is expected to be in the range of 13500-13600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9533.33 yuan/ton on July 1st and 9521.67 yuan/ton on July 12th, an increase of 0.94%. The current price has increased by 26.67% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has slightly increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. International oil prices have risen, cost support is good, styrene inventories have decreased rapidly, and equipment loads are low. There is an expectation of further supply decline, and the styrene market transactions are positive, leading to an upward trend in the market. At present, the transaction price of styrene in Jiangsu region is between 9660-9750 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect

Recently, the overall trend of pure benzene has continued to decline. At present, the inventory of pure benzene ports continues to rise. The inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu Province is 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. The downstream maintenance equipment for pure benzene has increased, and it is expected that inventory will rise in July and August. As of July 12th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market is 8750 yuan/ton. At present, there is a trend of bottoming out and rebounding in the pure benzene market, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will mainly rise slightly in mid to late July.

Supply side

There were many maintenance visits to the styrene plant in July. The inventory of styrene at ports in Jiangsu Province was 35900 tons, a decrease of 13100 tons or 26.73% from the previous inventory of 49000 tons. Styrene inventory remains low, and domestic supply remains at a low level, which is favorable for the styrene market. Under the current profit situation, the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start production is limited, and it is expected that there will be little pressure on styrene supply in mid to late July.

Demand side

Recently, the three major downstream producers of styrene have seen two increases and one leveling off. Among them, the EPS market is stable, with large fluctuations in manufacturer quotes and poor downstream demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and transactions are average. In early July, domestic ABS prices showed a narrow upward trend. The overall increase in the upstream three materials is relatively small, and the cost support for ABS is generally firm and stable. The ABS polymerization plant is operating steadily with a slight decrease, and there is ample supply of goods on site. There is a slight expectation of a contraction in future supply, but from the overall loss of production capacity, the change in supply pressure may be limited. The demand side has weak demand, and the off-season market trend is evident, resulting in weak trading. Overall, it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a consolidation trend in the short term. The PS market is fluctuating and rising. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 10000-10300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 10100-11600 yuan/ton.

According to the styrene data analyst of Shengyi Society, the current styrene port inventory is low, and the shutdown of styrene plants has reduced the burden significantly, resulting in a decrease in supply expectations. However, weak downstream demand may suppress the rise of styrene, and Shengyi Society analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly rise slightly.

In early July, the overall price of metal silicon in the market showed a weak downward trend. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of July 9, 2024, the reference price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 12930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% compared to early July, and a decrease of 4.08% compared to early June.

In June, the fundamentals of silicon metal showed a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. However, as we entered July, there was no significant improvement in the weak supply of silicon metal. Due to the arrival of the flood season, the overall production of silicon factories in various regions of China continued to increase, and the supply continued to grow. However, the performance of the downstream demand market for metallic silicon is still average, with slow transmission between supply and demand, and the focus of the metallic silicon market continuously sinking. As of July 9th, the domestic market price of metallic silicon 441 is referenced around 12900-13000 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply: Currently, with the arrival of the flood season, the resumption of work and production by silicon enterprises in various regions is gradually increasing. The overall operating rate of metal silicon plants is high, and there is a certain supply pressure on the supply side. Some silicon enterprises in certain regions have accumulated inventory, and the support provided by the supply side to the market is limited.

In terms of demand: Currently, the overall performance of the downstream market for metallic silicon is weak, with slow digestion of raw materials on the demand side, insufficient effective market support, and weak supply still showing signs.

Future analysis

At present, the overall performance of the metal silicon market is still weak, with a light trading atmosphere on the market. The focus of negotiations for some brands has slightly declined, and under supply pressure, some silicon companies may have maintenance plans. According to the metal silicon data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.