Last week (July 8-14, 2024), downstream demand was flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The raw material dissolution slurry market remained generally stable, while adhesive short fiber enterprises had tight inventory and stable operation of adhesive short fiber, resulting in stable prices. The downstream cotton yarn market has weak production, and the overall market is still dominated by rigid demand procurement. There is no obvious sign of improvement on the demand side. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly execute shipments, and the overall market delivery speed is stable.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable last week (July 8-14, 2024). As of July 14th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

In terms of supply, the production of adhesive short fiber factories has remained stable, with an industry operating load rate of around 78%. Some adhesive short fiber factory orders have been signed until mid to late July, and overall shipments are still relatively tight, which has a positive boost to the market.

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolution slurry remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolution slurry for domestic enterprises is referenced at 7700 yuan/ton, and the price for external markets is referenced at 940 US dollars/ton. The price of auxiliary raw material sulfur sulfonic acid continues to rise, providing favorable support for the cost of adhesive short fibers. And the adhesive short fiber industry is in a narrow loss state, with factories showing reluctance to sell at low prices.

On the demand side, the profits of downstream cotton yarn factories have been compressed, and there is a strong resistance to the price increase of viscose staple fibers. The downstream cotton yarn market is relatively weak in keeping up with the rising raw materials, so they purchase viscose staple fibers on demand.

Future forecast

The weak terminal demand continues, and the operating rate of downstream cotton yarn factories is not high. The cotton yarn market may be lukewarm. With the arrival of high temperatures, downstream cotton yarn factories may also reduce production, and the demand for viscose staple fibers lacks favorable support. However, some adhesive short fiber factories have relatively sufficient orders, and the sentiment of low price reluctance to sell may still exist, resulting in relatively firm offers. The inventory of adhesive short fiber enterprises may remain at a low level in the short term, and the tight delivery situation of adhesive short fiber factories may not be easily changed in the short term, which will have a boosting effect on the market. The market price of raw material dissolution slurry remains stable, providing stable support for the cost end of adhesive short fibers. Overall, it is expected that the market for adhesive short fibers will remain stable in the short term, with limited price fluctuations. The price is expected to be in the range of 13500-13600 yuan/ton.