According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 20th to 27th, the domestic BDO price rose from 7900 yuan/ton to 8157 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.25% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 10.66%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.25%. At present, the supply of BDO is relatively average, and the cost pressure is increasing, resulting in continuously rising auction prices. At the same time, downstream demand is increasing, multiple favorable factors are overlapping, and the supply side’s new moon policy is shrinking to support the market. Following up on downstream contract orders, the domestic BDO market continues to fluctuate and rise.
In terms of supply and equipment, there are many fluctuations, and the holding manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices, which has led to a continuous increase in online auction prices. The market supply of goods is still relatively low, and there is still good support from the supply side. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the calcium carbide market continues to rise, and production companies are shipping smoothly. With the increase in calcium carbide prices, companies have achieved significant improvements in profitability. The methanol market continues to show an upward trend, supported by factors such as downstream olefin plant demand inquiry and procurement, and positive expectations for the restart of MTO plants in East China. The overall market sentiment is optimistic about the strong operation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol. The cost of BDO industry is still under pressure, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side and downstream side, many industries have followed the trend of the raw material side to rise, but the increase is smaller than that of the raw material side, resulting in increased cost pressure. Under the impact of poor cost transmission, downstream industry contract orders are being followed up, and the implementation of spot orders is limited. A small number of essential small orders are being negotiated at high levels, driving the market focus to shift upward. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
The future forecast shows that as the supply of goods increases, the support on the supply side will slightly weaken. Downstream demand is also expected to decrease, and the gap between supply and demand is widening. At the same time, the transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, which suppresses the enthusiasm of downstream end-users to start production, thereby leading to bargaining emotions for raw material inventory. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly consolidate after rising.