In May 2023, the market performance of viscose staple fiber was calm, with a new price implemented in the early part of the month, and the price remained stable after a slight increase. The transaction atmosphere is relatively average, and the raw material inventory of the yarn factory is maintained until mid June. The demand for human cotton yarn is not strong, and the price increase is weak. The yarn factory is mainly wait-and-see, and new orders are scarce. There is not much change in production costs, raw materials are maintained, and cost support is limited. The price center of raw material dissolved slurry remains stable, with the domestic market mainly maintaining stability; The price of imported dissolved pulp is basically maintained, with broadleaf dissolved pulp around 900 US dollars/ton and needle leaf dissolved pulp around 920 US dollars/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the center of gravity of viscose staple fiber prices slightly moved up in May. As of May 30th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13360 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.60%.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Downstream people’s cotton yarn is relatively stable, with average transactions and prices basically maintained. However, some enterprises have experienced price reductions and promotions under inventory pressure. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 30th, the average ex factory price of people’s cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17566 yuan/ton, which is consistent with the price at the beginning of the month. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the textile terminal market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the market supply has been stable, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere in the short-term market has been limited. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers are still mainly executing early orders, and some viscose staple fiber manufacturers have the intention to push up. However, in the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand, business analysts predict that the prices of viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn may continue to operate steadily in the short term, and the market is waiting for or will introduce a new round of price policies.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices fluctuated and fell in May, with a price of 67431.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 65735 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline was 2.52%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.46%.

According to the current chart of the Business Society, copper futures prices in May were generally higher than spot prices, with the main contract being the expected price in two months, and the overall copper market in May was bearish. Towards the end of the month, the main basis decreases, which is good for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in May, suppressing copper prices.

Macroscopically, the Bank of England announced a 25 basis point hike in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5%, and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is needed if there is more holding pressure on inflation. The total number of completed home sales in the United States in April was 4.28 million, a decrease of 3.4% month on month, lower than the expected -3.2% and -2.6%, the largest month on month decline in 11 years. The US debt ceiling negotiation was fruitless, and the economic outlook was worrying. On June 1, the US was forced to default because it would be unable to fulfill its payment promise, which made the global risk appetite panic. Federal Reserve officials are mixed and uncertain about whether to raise interest rates in June, conveying ambiguous signals.

In terms of supply: In May, the overall supply of copper was loose, and there was almost no interference at the mining end in the past two months. The production and port transportation issues of external mines were gradually solved, and copper concentrate continued to be marginal loose. The export channels of Congo copper mines have been restored, and Peru copper mines have resumed operation with a significant increase in production in March. In addition, LME registered warehouse receipts and inventory are still steadily increasing, which has a strong impact on copper prices.

In terms of demand: May has entered the off-season, and the operating rate of copper companies is generally lower than the same period last year. Cable companies have slowed down their new orders, and the performance of home appliances and power tool restocking is poor. Orders in the enameled wire industry have declined. Buying stocks on dips in the middle and lower reaches, with a fear of falling, only purchasing according to demand, without excessive inventory of raw materials and finished products.

Based on the above situation, in May, copper supply was sufficient, demand was weak, and the overall performance of copper was poor. Towards the end of the month, optimistic negotiations on the US debt ceiling boosted the stock market and eased concerns about a slowdown in the US economy. Market confidence was encouraged, and copper prices rebounded. However, LME copper inventory continues to grow, and demand remains weak, which poses a pressure on copper prices above. June is still the traditional off-season for consumption, and copper prices are expected to remain low and volatile in June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has slightly rebounded. From May 22 to 26, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 15180 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.13%, a month on month decline of 4.16%, and a year-on-year decline of 12.14%. The atmosphere of the domestic aggregated MDI market has warmed, and as prices rise, the ability to follow up has weakened. The overall downstream digestion ability has not changed much, and the market is mainly driven slowly.

On the supply side, the overall changes in the equipment are not significant. The initial maintenance plan for the 130000+70000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao, Japan, is expected to be around January, which will affect the 80000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao Ruian, China. It is expected that the supply and inventory of goods will decrease slightly.

On the cost side, the domestic pure benzene market continues to decline, and the overall demand atmosphere is weak. Downstream consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor. On May 26th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6752.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of -9.17% compared to the beginning of this month (7433.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has rebounded slightly. The main reason is that downstream pickup has improved, and aniline factories have been smoothly restocking, driving prices up. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the overall downstream follow-up is relatively slow, and bargain-hunting and replenishment can still maintain order volume. However, after the price rises, the overall buying sentiment is weak, and the increase is suppressed. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is relatively short.

In the future market forecast, as prices rise, the market atmosphere gradually weakens, and traders’ quotes are scarce, with a focus on wait-and-see. Analysts from Business Society Aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be sorted and operated.

On May 25th, the average market price in the East China region was 198510 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% compared to the previous working day. The mainstream quotation range for 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market is 198500 to 200500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 199500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

On the night of the 24th, non-ferrous metals generally fell, with only Shanghai Tin closing up 0.13%. By the end of the 25th, the main 2306 contract of Shanghai Tin had settled at 196980 yuan/ton, with a closing increase of 2.17%. On the 24th, the ITA International Tin Association stated that the Ministry of Finance of the Wa State in Myanmar issued a notice on May 20, 2023, regarding the implementation of the “suspension of all mineral resource mining”. The policy of ceasing all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in mines after August 1, 2023 will be implemented. After this news was released, the market raised concerns about tin ore supply in the future, and the futures market rose. However, the recent market atmosphere has been generally negative, and demand expectations have been generally weak, resulting in limited overall market growth.

From the perspective of supply and demand, there have been limited changes this week, and manufacturers still have a strong mentality of price competition. The supply at the mining end is tight but has not improved yet, and refineries have a strong reluctance to sell. The demand side has limited changes and still shows weak demand. Overall, the weak downstream demand pattern continues, and the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices remains weak. It is necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1170.00 yuan/ton, and at the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to last week. The current price has dropped by 12.12% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fluctuated and dropped. It can be seen from the figure above that the recent market of formaldehyde mainly fluctuates slightly, and this week’s market has declined. As of May 22, the mainstream market value price in Shandong was 1120-1200 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated slightly, with moderate support for formaldehyde. Downstream panel factories started smoothly, with moderate demand support on the market. Market trading sentiment was poor, and the formaldehyde market fell.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has significantly declined, and the market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating, and downstream sheet metal factories have maintained just in demand procurement. The market transactions have been flat, so formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and decline in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7564.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% compared to May 15 at 7574.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

As of May 21, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7264.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to May 15 at 7326.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

On May 21, the naphtha commodity index was 93.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.26% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 121.00% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and declined, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with limited market trading and light trading volume.

The international crude oil market rose sharply this week, mainly because the market’s optimism about the US debt ceiling negotiations supported oil prices. Russia’s commitment to reduce crude oil production is aimed at supporting global oil prices. All actions including voluntary production reduction are related to OPEC+’s partnership and providing a stable environment for the oil market.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has rebounded after falling this week. On May 15th, toluene was at 7160.00 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, it was at 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week, reaching 7520 yuan/ton on May 15th and 7390 yuan/ton on May 19th, a decrease of 1.73%. The price trend of PX this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the factory price of domestic paraxylene is 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market has been volatile this week, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. In addition, the cost and demand of local refining naphtha are currently weak, and terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continue to be weak. Market trading is limited, and transactions are light. It is expected that local refining naphtha will be mainly weak in the near future.

The focus of the domestic bisphenol A market has declined. As of the close of the 19th, the mainstream negotiated price in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, while the negotiated price in North China was 9650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250-300 yuan/ton during the week.

The raw material phenol/acetone fluctuated downward and the decline was amplified, due to insufficient support from the cost side. Among them, the phenol market in the East China region fell to 7180-7200 yuan/ton in negotiations, which fell during the week. The acetone market in the East China region fell to 5950-6000 yuan/ton in negotiations, which fell during the week.

The two downstream products, epoxy resin and PC, have weak demand, mainly due to terminal digestion of contracts and inventory. The weak terminal demand has to some extent exacerbated the market wait-and-see atmosphere, and there has been no positive development in raw material demand.

On May 19th, the quotation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market was as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Up and down

East China region/ 9650./ -200

Shandong region/ 9600./ -100

The bidding situation of a certain petrochemical company in East China during the week showed that the delivery price of premium products was 9600 yuan/ton on the 15th and 9400 yuan/ton on the 18th, indicating a downward trend in bidding and guiding the market.

Two major raw materials and two downstream markets have declined one after another, and the overall performance of the industrial chain has been lackluster. Intermediary traders are following the market’s quotations, and there is currently a lack of confidence and no positive stimulus in the market. It is expected that the market will still urgently need a bottom next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 3350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.99%. On May 15th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 103.17, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.91% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and a 77.12% increase from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have slightly declined this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 3000-3100 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3000-3100 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2500-2600 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate slightly decreased this week, from 8520.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8480.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.47%, and the weekend price decreased by 10.74% year-on-year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased, from 5425.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5375.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.92%. The weekend price decreased by 26.87% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

In the first half of May, the market for dichloromethane weakened and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.83% from 2535 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 2625 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has decreased, while the cost of dichloromethane has slightly decreased; Downstream refrigerant demand is weak, with weak support for dichloromethane. At the beginning of the month, due to an unexpected incident at a certain factory, the market slightly increased in the short term, but the supply of methane chloride remained loose, and the supply and demand side was weak. In the later stage, the price of dichloromethane fell again. Overall, the dichloromethane market in the first half of May fluctuated and declined.

In the first half of May, there was a slight fluctuation in the operation of methane chloride plants.

In the first half of May, the price of raw material methanol decreased, while the cost of dichloromethane slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the spot price of methanol was 2325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02% from 2423 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

After entering May, the refrigeration market entered the end of the traditional peak season. Downstream refrigerant R32 has temporarily stabilized the parking and maintenance prices of some enterprises, but the demand for dichloromethane has weakened. The pharmaceutical intermediate and diluent solvent industries have experienced slight fluctuations in production, and dichloromethane just needs support. However, there has been no significant increase in the overall demand for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, downstream demand for dichloromethane is currently slightly weaker than in the early stage. In addition, the supply of dichloromethane is loose, and raw material prices are lower. Affected by the weak fundamentals of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

Product name: Calcium carbide

Latest price (May 12th): 3116.67 yuan/ton

On May 12th, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly increased, with a price increase of 66.67 yuan/ton or 2.19% compared to May 11th, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.95%. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1350 yuan/ton, and the price has stabilized at a high level, with good support for the cost of calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has recently experienced a slight decline, and downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly, with the main focus on consolidation: the average price quoted by manufacturers is around 3150 yuan/ton.