1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7564.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% compared to May 15 at 7574.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

As of May 21, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7264.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to May 15 at 7326.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

On May 21, the naphtha commodity index was 93.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.26% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 121.00% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and declined, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with limited market trading and light trading volume.

The international crude oil market rose sharply this week, mainly because the market’s optimism about the US debt ceiling negotiations supported oil prices. Russia’s commitment to reduce crude oil production is aimed at supporting global oil prices. All actions including voluntary production reduction are related to OPEC+’s partnership and providing a stable environment for the oil market.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has rebounded after falling this week. On May 15th, toluene was at 7160.00 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, it was at 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week, reaching 7520 yuan/ton on May 15th and 7390 yuan/ton on May 19th, a decrease of 1.73%. The price trend of PX this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the factory price of domestic paraxylene is 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market has been volatile this week, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. In addition, the cost and demand of local refining naphtha are currently weak, and terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continue to be weak. Market trading is limited, and transactions are light. It is expected that local refining naphtha will be mainly weak in the near future.