1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine has increased this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 28000 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 29400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5% and a 42.03% increase compared to the same period last year. On August 27th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 103.16, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.92% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 75.08% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This month, the overall price of bromine has been on the rise. Currently, the reference price for bromine spot production in Shandong is 28000-30000 yuan/ton. This month, due to environmental inspections and the impact of rainy season precipitation, the pressure on bromine inventory in enterprises is not significant, and prices are firm. Downstream demand is average, and overall market transactions are relatively light. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices remain firm, with an average market price of 2481 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2637.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.31% and 83.81% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to rise in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain stable. Bromine supply pressure is not significant, and downstream purchases are expected to be made on demand. Bromine prices remain relatively stable. It is expected that bromine will continue to maintain a strong market trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The asphalt market experiences narrow fluctuations, while spot prices in many regions remain stable. The production schedule for August has decreased compared to the previous month, but it is important to pay attention to the production situation of refineries that have exceeded their production capacity. There is a demand for rush work in the northwest and northeast regions, while the demand is poor due to the impact of rainfall in the south. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of sample refinery shipments has increased by 1 percentage point. The overall level of commercial inventory is relatively controllable, and BU has been under pressure due to the weak cost side in recent times, but there is still support for cracking.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, in terms of the fundamentals of asphalt, the overall weak supply-demand situation may continue, with funding conflicts and weather conditions such as rainfall affecting the release of terminal demand. The supply side may remain stable, and the operating rate is at the median level in recent years. However, inventory is relatively low and there has been no accumulation signal. The short-term pressure on the market is not significant, and asphalt is operating steadily.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and fell at the end of August, with most spot prices of certain brands experiencing narrow price reductions. As of August 26th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14266.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.47% compared to early August.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: As we enter late August, domestic PC aggregation enterprises are experiencing high and stable loads with small fluctuations. Recently, only some of Wanhua Chemical’s facilities have been scheduled for rotating rest and parking. In the first half of the month, the industry’s average operating level remained stable at around 82%. The average weekly output is close to 69000 tons, and the on-site supply is abundant. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. The shipment pressure of the aggregation plant remains unchanged, and the market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A consolidated at a low level at the end of August. Upstream phenol acetone rises and levels, with limited boost to bisphenol A. On the other hand, the supply of bisphenol A is still in a loose pattern, while the weak demand has not changed, and the market lacks upward momentum. Overall, the downward potential of bisphenol A market in the future may not be significant, but it does not provide strong support for PC costs.
In terms of demand: Currently, PC is at the junction of traditional off-season and peak season, but downstream factory loads have not rebounded, inventory remains at a weak level of rigid demand, and there has been no early warehouse construction operation. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, it is difficult to improve the supply-demand contradiction within the range. In addition, with weak foreign trade orders, terminal enterprises are under pressure and are resistant to high priced sources of goods. On the other hand, the financial pressure on traders has increased synchronously, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts and taking orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of August, the domestic PC market fluctuated and weakened. The upstream bisphenol A market remains weak, providing little support for the cost value of PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is generally stable, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand has not shown any improvement, and the characteristics of the off-season remain unchanged. It is difficult to see any positive market trends, and industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. The current PC price is at a historical low, but the market momentum is unlikely to improve in the short term. It is expected that the PC market will continue to search for a bottom in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there have been signs of price loosening in the formic acid market recently. As of August 25th, the benchmark price of formic acid in Shengyi Society was 3360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.35% from the high of 3550 yuan/ton at the beginning of August, and an increase of 22.18% compared to the same period last year.
Foreign trade pressure eased, domestic demand weakened
Previously, due to the strengthening of foreign trade orders, the price of formic acid soared from 2400 yuan/ton to 3550 yuan/ton. Recently, the pressure on foreign trade has shown a phased easing trend, and a large production enterprise in Shandong is gradually opening up to the domestic market. However, the domestic demand market continues to weaken, and the overall trading activity of the market has significantly decreased.
Raw material methanol has no favorable support
From August 15th to 22nd (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2330 yuan/ton to around 2295 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.47% during the period, a month on month drop of 6.29%, and a year-on-year drop of 7.49%. The recovery of domestic methanol facilities has led to a slight lack of support in the mainland market, resulting in poor purchasing power at high prices.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that formic acid has no positive support in the near future, and the price may fluctuate and maintain stability. Specific changes in the market situation still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 15th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price fell to 5575 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.33% during the period, a month on month drop of 2.41%, and a year-on-year drop of 6.62%. The domestic ethanol market prices are weak and consolidating, factory quotations have been lowered, new orders have been limited, and factories have a positive attitude towards shipment.
In terms of cost, the spot price of corn is still weak, and there is no improvement in market demand. The procurement situation for deep processing in North China has not shown significant improvement, which does not provide strong support for the market. The market focus is gradually shifting towards new grains. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is not much fluctuation in the production of edible ethanol, and the factory has a positive attitude towards shipping, resulting in low prices in the market. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu began to be purchased sporadically, some chemical export demand improved, and the consumer side is expected to narrow down. Negative factors affecting ethanol demand.
The future forecast shows that the supply side continues to increase, but there is no significant improvement in demand. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market will continue to operate weakly.

The bidding price for hydrogen fluoride in August decreased by 100-200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 20th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10650 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.39% from the end of July.
Raw material side: Domestic fluorite prices have risen this week, putting high pressure on the cost of hydrogen fluoride. As of August 20th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3181.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (3137.50 yuan/ton). The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The sustained high price of fluorite has put pressure on the cost of hydrofluoric acid, and there is still pressure for production enterprises to incur losses. The purchasing sentiment for high priced fluorite raw materials is relatively low, and it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid industry will continue to operate weakly and consolidate.
Demand side: The downstream refrigerant market has weak terminal demand, low stocking enthusiasm, and mainly purchases upstream products on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market trading atmosphere is cold, and some companies have reduced their raw material demand due to profit losses.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite will rise, the cost of hydrofluoric acid will be under high pressure, production enterprises will still face loss pressure, downstream terminal demand will be weak, and market trading will be sluggish. It is expected that the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market will continue to operate weakly and consolidate in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has returned to a volatile trend after experiencing a surge in production stoppage at the mining end of Ningde Times. As of August 19th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate at Shengyi Society was 82733 yuan/ton, an increase of 16% from the beginning of the month, a month on month increase of 28.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 81166 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.46% from the beginning of the month, a month on month increase of 28.5%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.21%.
Supply side disturbance leads to a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices
Last week, due to the news of the complete suspension of production in the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area caused by the expiration of the mining license of Ningde Times, there were concerns about tightening market supply, resulting in a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices. During the week, global lithium giant Albemarle’s La Negra lithium processing plant in Antofagasta, Chile, temporarily shut down some production lines due to an acid containing pipeline explosion accident. Further stimulate price increases.
The fundamental pattern of oversupply has not changed
Maintaining a high level of production: With the continuous increase in domestic new production capacity and the improvement of capacity utilization rate of OEM enterprises, the price rebound may stimulate active production line shutdowns. The actual impact of Ningde’s shutdown on the supply side is not significant.
The inventory has been slightly reduced, but it is still at a high level: although there has been a trend of inventory reduction in China since July, as of mid August, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory is about 145000 tons. Still at a high level. From a global perspective, the reduction in mining production in Australia coupled with the decline in the stability of lithium mine supply in Africa has resulted in low global lithium mine inventories, leading to an increase in traders’ hoarding and reluctance to sell.
The demand growth trend has not changed, but the growth rate has slowed down: the production and sales of new energy vehicles have maintained a growth trend. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, an increase of 26.3% and 27.4% year-on-year. But as the penetration rate of new energy enterprises increases to 48.7%, the demand for lithium carbonate in power batteries slows down. The demand for energy storage remains strong, with rigid demand for photovoltaic and wind power distribution and storage. Coupled with the promotion of policies in the European and American markets, the bidding capacity for domestic energy storage has surged by 88% year-on-year.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, lithium carbonate prices may experience severe fluctuations due to supply side news disturbances. However, in the long run, the fundamental supply-demand pattern has not changed, and there is no further upward momentum for lithium carbonate prices. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell this week, and overall the price has increased. On Monday, the price of pure benzene was 6142 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6215.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.19% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: This week, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell, and overall the price has increased. The quantity of imported shipments of pure benzene has decreased, while the spot prices in the market remain firm. On August 12th, the pure benzene prices of Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China were raised to 6150 yuan/ton. However, the market lacks confidence in the continued upward trend in the future, and there is insufficient follow-up of buying orders. The overall trading atmosphere is somewhat stagnant, and the price of Shandong local refining has slightly decreased.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On August 14th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.96 per barrel, an increase of $1.31 or 2.1%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October was $66.84 per barrel, an increase of $1.21 or 1.8%. The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates stimulates oil demand.
Foreign pure benzene: On August 14th, FOB Korea fell by 1 to 733 US dollars per ton, and CFR China fell by 2 to 749 US dollars per ton. FOB Rotterdam rose 14 to $734 per ton, while FOB US Gulf fell 1 to 268 cents per gallon.
Overall expectation: The pure benzene market is expected to experience slight fluctuations in the short term, with cautious trading. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of August 15th, the average sales price of PET was 5947 yuan/ton, and the overall price of polyester bottle chips showed a downward trend from August 1st to 15th. On August 1st, the market price of polyester bottle flakes was 6060 yuan/ton, which dropped to 5972 yuan/ton on August 4th. On August 14th, some companies’ quotations continued to decline. On August 15th, driven by the rebound of crude oil, prices in East China rebounded by 10 yuan/ton to 5900 yuan/ton, and PET market prices rose, but transactions were still mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
On the cost side, OPEC+production expectations and uncertainty about US tariff policies led to Brent crude oil falling to $68.64 per barrel (-2.21% MoM), directly dragging PTA spot prices down to $4870 per ton and ethylene glycol falling below $4400 per ton. The aggregation cost decreased by 0.9% month on month to 5671 yuan/ton, and the bottle processing fee was repaired to 385 yuan/ton (month on month+86 yuan/ton), but the production gross profit still fell to -214 yuan/ton, forcing factories to raise prices.
Supply side: The bottle tablet industry will be in a period of concentrated production capacity from the second half of 2023, with relatively loose supply expectations. However, since July, there has been a concentrated production reduction in the bottle chip industry. In August, the main polyester bottle chip factories continued to maintain a production reduction of 20% or more, which started in July. This has eased inventory pressure, and some specifications are tight, providing some support for prices.
On the demand side: Downstream demand has shown a flat performance, affected by the continuous decline in raw materials and the depreciation of inventory in the early stage. The atmosphere for new weaving orders has not improved significantly, and buyers still hold a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream demand is mostly for essential purchases, which has limited driving effect on the price of polyester bottle chips.
Overall, the future price of polyester bottle chips is expected to show a fluctuating trend, with a short-term increase supported by costs. The expected price range is between 5900-6050 yuan/ton. However, in the medium to long term, there is still pressure from oversupply and limited room for price increases.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in August
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the DOP price was 7809.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.84% compared to the DOP price of 7955.83 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, DOP production increased to 6.6%, plasticizer production increased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell; Downstream demand is unlikely to improve, and there is a lack of interest in DOP procurement inquiries. DOP demand remains weak. The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost support of plasticizers decreased. The reduction in supply leads to a decrease in costs, and the price of plasticizers fluctuates and falls.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell in August
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of isooctanol was 7383.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.99% compared to the price of 7533.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of plasticizers decreased, and the downward pressure on DOP increased.
The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in August
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6533.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.75% compared to the price of 6650 yuan/ton on August 1st. On August 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride was quoted at 6500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41% compared to the beginning of the month. The cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and there have been more equipment maintenance in August. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has slightly decreased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is still sufficient. The equipment operating load of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride still exists. The cost has decreased, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in August.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; On the supply side, plasticizer enterprises have resumed production, increasing plasticizer output and supply; In terms of demand, the overall economy is sluggish, coupled with anti competition and the elimination of outdated production capacity, resulting in weak downstream demand. Overall, with an increase in supply and a decrease in costs, coupled with continued weak demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.