According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has risen and fallen recently. As of August 4th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 70833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.75% from the recent high of 72833 yuan/ton (July 30th) and a decrease of 22.16% from the same period last year’s 91000 yuan/ton; The benchmark price for domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading is 69666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% from the recent high of 71866 yuan/ton (July 30) and a decrease of 21.19% from the same period last year at 88400 yuan/ton.
Under the background of “anti internal competition”, there is an expectation of production reduction and shutdown in the mining industry, which drives up prices
The ‘anti involution’ has raised market expectations of supply side contraction, amplifying the short-term supply gap. This expectation drove a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices in July, rising from around 60000/ton to 70000/ton.
After the price increase, the actual transaction volume in the market is limited
After the price increase, there has been a reduction in spot orders in the market, and downstream customers have limited willingness to receive goods at high prices. They have a hesitant attitude towards the future price trend of lithium carbonate, mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Emotional expectations have fallen, and the fundamentals are still dominated by oversupply
From a fundamental perspective, although the supply and production of lithium carbonate have decreased and the entire industry chain is experiencing destocking, the overall situation is characterized by oversupply and limited demand growth.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that although there is a trend of strengthened regulation in the mining sector, overall, lithium carbonate is still in a state of supply-demand mismatch, and there is still downward pressure on prices. It is expected to experience weak fluctuations in the short term, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market will first decline and then rise in July 2025, with an overall downward trend. From July 1st to 31st, the domestic xylene market price fell from 6120 yuan/ton to 6010 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 1.8% during the period.
Early July: The domestic mixed xylene market saw a slight decline in this cycle, with weak crude oil and weak downstream demand, driving a weak atmosphere in the spot market. The performance in Shandong region is relatively weak, with poor demand from downstream chemical and oil blending industries, leading to a decrease in quotes from main refineries. Both supply and demand have shown a weak trend. As the price difference between toluene and xylene continues to narrow, some downstream consumers have turned to buying toluene, resulting in a weak market atmosphere and a slight decline in prices.
Mid July: Markets across the country have generally declined this week. Due to weak demand in the Shandong region, refineries have frequently lowered their prices, resulting in a more significant decline in prices. Later on, as prices continued to decline, downstream companies were able to replenish their inventory at low prices. The shipment situation improved significantly in the later part of the week, with better demand from oil blending companies and more rigid demand from other industries. The East China region was boosted by low inventory, resulting in a slight decrease in prices. The inventory in southern China is low, but downstream demand is weak, resulting in a slight decline in prices.
In late July, the domestic xylene market experienced a slight rebound after an overall decline, indicating a weak overall trend. The decline in crude oil prices during the cycle has dragged down market sentiment. Downstream demand in Shandong region is relatively weak, and although refineries have voluntarily lowered their quotations, transactions are still limited. As downstream PX companies enter the market to replenish inventory, the market has slightly rebounded. The East China region continued to operate weakly this week, with low inventory levels. With the reduction of refinery listing prices and market downturn in southern China, downstream demand tends to be more rigid.
Cost wise: As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.71 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $70.04 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated. On the one hand, OPEC+is likely to complete its 2.2 million barrels per day production increase plan before the end of September. In addition, with the trade agreement reached between the United States and Japan, the international oil market trend has fallen slightly due to this news; On the other hand, there are still concerns in the market about the tariff negotiations between the United States and Europe, as well as factors such as the Middle East issue and disturbances in the European situation, causing the crude oil market to maintain a volatile trend.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of July 30th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800-6000 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6150-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900-6150 yuan/ton.

Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the price of xylene sold by Sinopec Sales Company has temporarily stabilized, with a current price of 7250 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities are operating stably with normal sales, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton compared to June 29. As of July 30th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 841-843 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 866-868 US dollars/ton CFR China, unchanged from June 27th.
Market forecast: The crude oil trend will rise at the end of the month, which will provide a certain boost to the xylene market. Recently, with the production of some new equipment on the supply side, the market expects loose supply in the future. The demand side oil blending industry has recently shown weak performance, and PX companies’ purchasing intentions are also biased towards rigid demand, resulting in a slightly bearish demand side. Overall, under the influence of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the xylene market will mainly operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term, with a focus on the trend of crude oil.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market experienced a slight decline in July 2025, with an average price of 16995 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16725 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.59%.
On July 31st, the Business Society Lead Index was 101.79, a decrease of 0.48 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.04% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and an increase of 36.39% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
The market trend showed a differentiated trend in the middle of the month. In the first half of the month, the profit of the recycled lead industry was restored, and the expectation of increasing production for enterprises continued to strengthen. In this context, the Shanghai lead price began to decline from a high of 17300 yuan/ton and gained cost support around 16800 yuan/ton. However, due to the off-season of consumption and weak market demand, although the Shanghai lead price rebounded in the future, it failed to effectively break through the integer threshold of 17000 yuan/ton.
supply end
Kazakhstan has implemented a policy to completely prohibit the export of unprocessed refined lead in any form, which has resulted in a continuous tight supply of lead concentrate and waste batteries, providing strong support for the cost side of lead. Currently, the prices of sulfuric acid and silver remain high, which affects the production enthusiasm of primary lead refineries. However, the old production line in Yuguang is undergoing maintenance, and Jinli has also implemented production reduction measures, but these adjustments are still difficult to offset the negative impact of the off-season consumption. At the same time, the recovery of the production of recycled lead is relatively slow, and the price difference between refined and waste materials occasionally shows an inverted phenomenon, leading downstream enterprises to prefer purchasing raw lead with lower prices. With the development of this trend, the number of lead storage facilities is gradually increasing, which also reflects the weak situation of the current consumer market.
demand side
Next month is traditionally the peak season for consumption, but the current market is facing many unfavorable factors. The Middle East region has launched an anti-dumping investigation against China’s lead-acid batteries, and measures to impose high tariffs have been implemented; At the same time, the results of the third round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States have not yet been announced, and the United States has imposed tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, which indirectly affects China’s battery exports; In addition, the domestic policy of exchanging old for new has led to the early release of some consumption, resulting in a situation of pre consumption. Taking all these factors into consideration, the market’s concern that this year’s peak consumption season may not meet expectations is increasing.
Prediction of future trends
The current fundamentals of the lead market are showing signs of improvement and slight recovery, but the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent and overall is relatively limited. If the lead price wants to rebound, its height largely depends on the actual performance of the consumer side. Currently, the market is waiting for inventory conditions to verify the degree of realization during the peak consumption season. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the future.