According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6066.67 yuan/ton. In October, the market price of white carbon black remained stable and weak, with a decrease of 2.15%. The overall price fluctuation range was limited, and manufacturers offered to take orders. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the focus of negotiations is stable.

In October, the stable operation of white carbon black market prices was the main focus, with mainstream prices around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations was stable, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced, with little price fluctuations. Downstream procurement was mainly for immediate needs, and the enthusiasm for stocking was average. Manufacturers mainly offered to take advantage of profits, but the number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On October 29, the chemical index stood at 888 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 48.49% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main factor, and the range of price fluctuations is limited.

This week (10.23-27), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market experienced a significant decline, with a significant drop in domestic supply prices and a certain degree of decline in imported supply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 8.71%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy has slipped to 70000-75000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the devices affected by the accident in the early stage have now resumed operation, and the newly added production capacity has been gradually released, achieving mass production. The domestic supply has significantly increased, and the shipping speed has slowed down, causing silicon material manufacturers to accumulate inventory. The weakened bargaining power has forced silicon material manufacturers to lower prices for shipment.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the operating load of silicon wafer enterprises has decreased, mainly due to the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with a slowdown in downstream procurement. The inventory level of silicon wafers continues to operate at a high level, and the crystal pulling end can only lower its own operating rate to alleviate the oversupply situation. The M10 monocrystalline silicon chip has experienced a significant decline, with a weekly drop of 0.3 yuan, a drop of over 10%, and the mainstream transaction price dropping to 2.40 yuan per chip; The quotation for G12 single crystal silicon chip has dropped by 0.2 yuan, and the current mainstream transaction price is 3.40 yuan per chip.

From the perspective of the terminal demand side, the prices of battery cells and components have been inverted, with a significant drop in battery cell prices, with a weekly drop of over 10%. The average price of single crystal M10 battery cells has dropped to 0.51 yuan, and G12 battery cells have dropped to 0.53 yuan. Although the domestic installation rate is basically stable, external orders have decreased and overall terminal demand has slowed down.

Future forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the recent increase in demand in the silicon material market is insufficient, and it is necessary to continue to follow up. Coupled with expectations of increased supply, prices will continue to loosen and decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been stable recently. This week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5225.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% month on month and 3.83% year-on-year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has slightly increased. Currently, there is a possibility of a large downstream MTO device being put into operation, and the demand is good. In addition, macroeconomic benefits have also played a certain driving role. At the same time, port inventory has been significantly reduced, and the methanol market is gradually improving.

Recently, the methanol market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Downstream purchases remain in demand, while polyformaldehyde manufacturers maintain normal shipments. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business community predict that prices may increase slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 24th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 203000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.40% compared to last Wednesday (October 18th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has shown stable and weak performance. Recently, the price of upstream spodumene concentrate has dropped, and upstream lithium carbonate has temporarily stabilized operation. Cost support has weakened, with low supply side construction and mainly delivering more orders. Terminal demand has not met expectations, and demand side support is weak. The mentality of the industry is average, and it is mainly for immediate follow-up. The company’s quotation is stable but has declined.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on October 23, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 167600.00, an increase of 4.1% compared to October 1 (161000.00).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society believe that current cost support is limited, while demand support is still insufficient. The market atmosphere is light, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be weak and stable, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of toluene has fallen significantly in recent times (10.13-10.23) due to its weakness. On October 23rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7130 yuan/ton, while on October 13th, the benchmark price was 7810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.71%.

Since October, international crude oil prices have generally declined, and toluene cost support has weakened

Since October, the overall international crude oil price has declined, weakening the cost support for toluene. As of October 20th, the WTI12 contract closed at $88.30 per barrel, with a settlement of 88.08 yuan per barrel; The Brent 12 contract closed at $92.43 per barrel and settled at $92.16 per barrel.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season, and toluene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, coupled with downstream replenishment behavior before the Double Festival, downstream inquiries have been light after the festival, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has exceeded 70%, while the operating load of local refineries in Shandong is around 65%.

In terms of gasoline, there has been no holiday support recently, with a decrease in self driving frequency and driving radius. The demand for gasoline has decreased, and some businesses are moderately restocking on dips. The purchasing sentiment is not positive, and some refineries have increased their inventory. The decline in gasoline is significant. In terms of diesel, the construction of outdoor infrastructure and engineering projects has maintained a high level, coupled with the support of demand for open sea fishing and agricultural autumn harvests, logistics and transportation have shown active negative performance. The overall demand for diesel is relatively stable, so the decline in diesel is relatively small.

PX starts to stabilize toluene and obtain necessary support

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and the crude oil price trend is rising. The external price trend of PX is mainly volatile. As of the 19th, the closing price in Asia is 995-997 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1020-1022 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been mainly fluctuating, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 70%.

External market price decreases, toluene supply pressure increases

On the one hand, since October, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, and the Asia US interest rate gap has severely shrunk. The price of toluene in Asia has dropped, with the CFR China LC90 day toluene price ranging from 880 to 882 US dollars per ton as of November 20th; On the other hand, the increase in domestic refining and separation, as well as the export of toluene, coupled with the continued increase in toluene port inventory, has increased the pressure on the supply side of toluene. As of October 20th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 39000 tons, while the inventory of toluene in South China was 12000 tons.

Future forecast: The international crude oil price range fluctuates, and there is still some support for the cost of toluene; However, industries such as downstream mixing of toluene have weakened their support for toluene, coupled with an increase in supply, and it is expected that the toluene market will be weak and narrow in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 5818 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 5794 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.41% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC fell first and then rose. The futures market performed poorly from Monday to Thursday, with spot market prices continuously falling slightly. Affected by the rise in crude oil futures on Friday, the PVC futures market rose above 6, reaching its highest point at 6027. Futures have driven the spot market, boosting confidence in the PVC market, and spot market prices have rebounded. Today, some companies saw a slight increase in spot prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5520-5930 yuan/ton.

On October 19th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $88.37 per barrel, an increase of $1.10 or 1.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 92.38 yuan/barrel, an increase of $1.0 or 0.9%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with an average domestic price of 2966.67 yuan/ton. The upstream price of blue charcoal is stable and relatively strong, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and the demand for calcium carbide has weakened. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late October, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the trading volume in the PVC spot market is relatively light this week. Upstream calcium carbide has temporarily stabilized and consolidated, with average support. The futures markets from Monday to Thursday are currently performing poorly. Affected by the rise in crude oil futures on Friday, the PVC futures market rose, boosting confidence in the PVC spot market. It is expected that the PVC market will move slightly upwards in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 19, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8166 yuan/ton. Compared with October 13 (reference price of propylene glycol 8100), the price was increased by 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.82%.

According to the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that after the National Day holiday, the domestic propylene glycol market has fallen into a downward trend, with insufficient effective support for the propylene glycol market, and the confidence of operators has been undermined. The propylene glycol market price has all along fallen to a low point. Entering this week, facing the continuous downward trend of the propylene glycol market for a month, some large propylene glycol factories have a strong mentality of maintaining stability and price support. At the beginning of the week, the propylene glycol market entered a low consolidation period, and downstream finally welcomed a small range of just needed replenishment and bargain hunting. In the middle of the week, the propylene glycol market experienced a slight upward movement, with some propylene glycol factories raising propylene glycol prices narrowly by about 100 yuan/ton. As of October 19th, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 8000-8200 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the Future Market of Propylene Glycol

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is light, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. New orders are still cautious in trading, and the support provided by the demand side has not been fully released. The propylene glycol data analyst of the business company believes that in the short term, the overall operation of the domestic propylene glycol market will be slightly adjusted, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of October 18, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7900 yuan/ton. Compared with October 13, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 8000 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25%.

After the end of the National Day holiday, there was a slight increase in the domestic n-propanol market. Entering this week, the market situation of n-propanol has weakened and retreated. Downstream demand for n-propanol is average, and the overall shipment rhythm of n-propanol is relatively slow. Some n-propanol factories and suppliers have lowered the prices of n-propanol by around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of October 18th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7300-7800 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is light, with downstream cautious and rigid demand procurement being the main focus, and supply and demand transmission being average. The business company’s n-propanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate with narrow fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic urea market price slightly decreased this week, with urea prices dropping from 2551.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2526.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.98%. Weekend prices fell by 0.13% year-on-year. On October 15th, the urea commodity index was 117.52, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 111.37% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is average, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4316.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4608.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 6.77%, and the weekend price has decreased by 27.66% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a high level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) around 1290 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3523.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 6.04%, and the weekend price has decreased by 16.24% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing general support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea has temporarily stabilized this week, at 7175.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agriculture has entered the off-season. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has decreased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has weakened. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective, some enterprises have completed maintenance, and daily urea production has further increased, resulting in sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late October, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has ups and downs, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, while industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with supply exceeding demand. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market saw a narrow decline this week (October 6th to October 13th). The market price in East China was at 13800 yuan/ton on October 13th, a decrease of 1.08%.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market was operating weakly, with slightly loose transactions. The price of manganese silicon futures continued to decline, and downstream inquiries continued to pressure. Some traders have increased their mentality of shipping according to the market, while others have maintained a low price mentality. As of October 13th, Tianjin Port’s semi carbonated carbon dioxide is priced at 31-31.5 yuan/ton, Gabon’s is priced at 37-37.3 yuan/ton, and Australia’s is priced at 38-38.5 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Port’s semi carbonated carbon is around 31 yuan/ton, Gabon’s is around 37.5 yuan/ton, Australia’s block is around 39-39.3 yuan/ton, and Australia’s seed is 36.8-37 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, prices have been declining for three consecutive months since June, and the antimony ingot market has fluctuated narrowly since mid August.

The electrolytic manganese market is operating weakly, with mainstream prices ranging from 12200 to 12300 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. After the holiday, the market is operating weakly, and the market supply has been relatively loose recently. The downstream price pressure mentality is relatively heavy, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Downstream demand has always been difficult to increase, and support for the upstream market is limited. Recently, the downstream stainless steel market has been operating weakly, lacking downstream support, and there is room for price decline. We are waiting for more guidance on steel bidding in the future. In the future, the market is on the wait-and-see side and will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the silicon manganese market was operating weakly. At the beginning of the week, the progress of steel mills was slow, and the market had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Transactions were mainly based on basis trade. Later this week, with the finalization of mainstream steel bidding prices, large-scale procurement on the demand side began, and the inquiry and trading atmosphere improved. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in the Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6550-6700 yuan/ton on October 13th, with an average market price of 6658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32%.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in August 2023 was about 21544.947 tons, a decrease of about 15.97% compared to the previous month (July export volume was 25639.34 tons), and an increase of about 8.7% compared to last year (August export volume was 19820.931 tons). In August 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 4000.015 tons, a decrease of about 34.43% compared to the previous month (6100 tons in July), and an increase of about 300% compared to the previous year (about 1000.01 tons in August last year).

On October 15th, the base metal index stood at 1191 points, unchanged from yesterday, a 26.30% decrease from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an 85.51% increase from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were four commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices in the 41st week of 2023 (10.9-10.13), with cobalt (1.10%), nickel (0.44%), and titanium concentrate (0.15%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 15 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with zinc (-4.64%), lead (-1.98%), and aluminum (-1.70%) being the top three products in terms of decline. This week’s average rise and fall was -0.66%.