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In 2025, the price of polyester bottle chips showed obvious periodic fluctuations, with an overall operating range of 5388-6447 yuan/ton and a fluctuation range of 19.7% within the year.
1、 Core characteristics of the market in 2025: wide fluctuations and intense supply-demand competition
Price trend:
First quarter: High level firm
The market has started steadily, with a transaction price range of 6260-6520 yuan/ton for orders from January to March. At the beginning of the year, with cost support and relatively stable supply and demand, the price remained at a high level of 6380-6430 yuan/ton.
Second quarter: “roller coaster” market trend
The market has fluctuated sharply this quarter. In early April, prices experienced a sharp drop of nearly a thousand points, but later regained all lost ground in June due to factors such as concentrated production cuts in the industry. In May, the price first rose and then fell, with an average price of 6077 yuan/ton at the end of the month. In the second half of the month, it hit the 6000 yuan/ton mark due to the decline in crude oil prices.
Third quarter: Shift in focus
The market is showing a weak downward trend. As of September 30th, the average price of PET has fallen to 5870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50% from 6067 yuan/ton in early July, reflecting the impact of supply pressure and weak domestic demand.
Fourth quarter: Cost driven rebound
Supported by strong raw material costs, the market rebounded at the end of the year. On December 22-23, there was a rapid rise, and on the 26th, the average spot price in East China closed at 6080 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.29%, marking a strong end to the year.
2、 Analysis of Key Factors Influencing the Market Situation
Cost driven
PTA and ethylene glycol are the main raw materials, with PTA accounting for approximately 64% of the cost.
The correlation coefficient between bottle price and PTA price is as high as 0.9, indicating rapid cost transmission.
Supply side: The tug of war between expansion and contraction
The supply pattern in 2025 is complex:
Expansion Trend: Approximately 3.1 million tons of new production capacity were added throughout the year, with a growth rate of 16%, accounting for half of the total new polyester production capacity.
Production reduction trend: In response to potential overcapacity, the industry has launched a large-scale self regulatory production reduction since May. The top enterprises collectively reduced their production capacity by about 3.36 million tons, accounting for 16.3% of the total production capacity at that time, which pushed the industry’s operating rate from a high of nearly 90% to around 75%. The coexistence of capacity expansion and active contraction has become the key to stabilizing the market.
Demand side: weak internally and strong externally, structural changes
Weak domestic demand: From January to October, the production of soft drinks decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, but the consumption of bottled tablets increased by 6.5%, reflecting an increase in unit packaging usage or product upgrades.
Strong exports: the biggest highlight. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 5.848 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, effectively offsetting the insufficient domestic demand.
Emerging applications: The demand for hot filled tea beverages, dairy product packaging, and other fields is rapidly growing (with a growth rate of 6% -9%), becoming a new growth point.
Policy side: “Anti internal competition” and industry self-discipline
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology guides the industry to curb “internal competition”, promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and control production and reduce output.
The industry self-discipline mechanism has shown initial results: when the processing gap drops to a low of 300 yuan/ton, collective production reduction drives the processing gap back to above 550 yuan/ton.
The policy is expected to improve the long-term supply and demand structure, announcing the end of the high-speed expansion phase of production capacity (expected to significantly slow down to 7.5% in the future).

3、 Market outlook for the first quarter of 2026:
The price range under cost support is expected to fluctuate between 6000-6400 yuan/ton, with a shift in focus from the fourth quarter of 2025.
Main logic:
Supporting factors: Cost side (PTA/ethylene glycol) is expected to fluctuate at a high level; Maintain resilience in export demand; Seasonal stocking before and after the Spring Festival.
Restrictive factors: Supply pressure brought about by the commissioning of new facilities; The absolute inventory level in China is still relatively high; The recovery of domestic demand is limited.
Processing fee: It is expected to remain at a historically low level of 300-500 yuan/ton, reflecting that industry competition remains fierce.
summary
In 2025, the polyester bottle chip market will experience severe fluctuations under the multiple forces of capacity expansion, demand differentiation, and policy intervention. The industry balances supply and demand and repairs profits through proactive production reduction and self-discipline. Looking ahead to early 2026, the market will operate between strong cost support and loose supply and demand patterns, with limited upward space for prices, and is expected to be dominated by range fluctuations. The sustainability of export performance and industry self-discipline will be key observational variables in the future.

1、 Price trend
According to data monitored by Business Society, as of December 29th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 6900 yuan/ton. Currently, the cyclohexane supply is sufficient, inventory is running at a high level, downstream demand is insufficient, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.
2、 Market analysis
Market wise: Currently, the overall market supply is sufficient, with loose domestic cyclohexane supply and high inventory levels. Downstream demand is limited, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. There is insufficient upward momentum, weak downstream demand, and insufficient purchasing atmosphere. The overall market supply exceeds demand, and prices are showing a downward trend at a high level. Price increases lack favorable support.
Upstream pure benzene: Supply is loose, domestic pure benzene supply is sufficient, and port inventory is rapidly accumulating. On December 1st, Jiangsu port inventory reached 224000 tons, an increase of 36.59% compared to the previous month. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the overall operating rate is declining. Main products such as styrene and caprolactam are losing profits, and the purchasing willingness is weak.
In terms of demand, the overall demand for cyclohexane in December was weak, with the market mainly focused on rigid procurement. Downstream industries such as synthetic fibers and coatings did not show a significant increase in operating rates, and export orders were also limited.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the overall supply and demand balance in the cyclohexane market is high, with high inventory levels and insufficient purchasing atmosphere on the demand side. Prices are showing a downward trend from high levels. In the short term, the cyclohexane market is expected to maintain a stable to weak operation, but there is still a lack of strong support on the demand side.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the domestic phenol market showed a significant downward trend, with prices continuing to fall from their high at the beginning of the quarter, hitting a new low for the year and even nearly five years. The industry is facing a dual dilemma of supply-demand imbalance and profit pressure. The current market downturn is the result of multiple negative factors such as supply-demand mismatch, weakened cost support, and industrial chain transmission, which have had a significant impact on phenol and the upstream and downstream industrial chains. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6912 yuan/ton on October 1st and 5845 yuan/ton on December 26th, a decrease of 15.44%.
From an annual comparison, the average annual price of phenol in 2025 is 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1064 yuan/ton compared to 7914 yuan/ton in 2024, a decrease of 13.44%. The significant decline in the fourth quarter has become the core factor driving down the annual average price. In terms of market transactions, due to the impact of low prices and weak demand, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to enter the market for inquiries is insufficient, and transactions continue to be sluggish. Most enterprises mainly rely on contract shipments, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is quiet.
From a cost perspective, the core raw materials for phenol production are pure benzene and propylene. In the fourth quarter, the market prices of both materials weakened synchronously, resulting in insufficient cost support for phenol and further exacerbating the downward trend in prices. The pure benzene market has shown particularly weak performance, with a cumulative decline of over 8% from September to October. The sluggish pure benzene market is mainly due to the contradiction between the surge in import volume and insufficient downstream demand. The propylene market also showed a downward trend, with the monthly average price in Northeast and North China falling below 6000 yuan/ton, setting a new low for the year.
In terms of supply, the phenol industry will usher in a new round of capacity expansion in 2025. At the end of the third quarter, Jilin Petrochemical’s 350000 tons/year phenol ketone plant has been completed and put into operation. After entering the fourth quarter, the plant has stable output, directly increasing the total market supply. At the same time, the phenol ketone units of Mitsui Chemical and Shenghong Refining, which were previously shut down for maintenance, have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded to a stable level of around 75%, further exacerbating the pattern of loose supply. In addition, the replenishment of imported phenol cargo in the East China region continued in the fourth quarter, with a total arrival volume of 49700 tons in December. Although port inventory has temporarily stabilized at 8500 tons, the expected arrival of in transit cargo in the future continues to put pressure on the market.
From the demand side, the overall sluggish market is the main reason for the market downturn. The core downstream of phenol is bisphenol A, which accounts for over 40% of its consumption. The downstream polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resin industries of bisphenol A are facing sluggish demand in the fourth quarter. Among them, the PC industry has limited new orders, and enterprises mainly stock up on small orders for essential needs. The operating rate has decreased by 4 percentage points compared to September, and the procurement volume of bisphenol A has significantly decreased; The epoxy resin industry is affected by the adjustment of the new wind power policy, and onshore wind power no longer enjoys the preferential treatment of value-added tax collection and refund. The industry’s operating rate is only maintained at around 51%, further reducing the enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The weak demand in downstream industries has formed negative feedback, resulting in a lack of effective support on the demand side of the phenol market, and the downward pressure on prices continues to increase.

Business Society predicts that the domestic phenol market will continue to experience pressure and volatility in the short term, with limited upward potential for prices. From the supply side, there are plans to restart phenol ketone plants in Yangzhou and other areas, while the replenishment of overseas and domestic shipping will continue. There may be a slight increase in market supply, which will suppress prices. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand for bisphenol A in the core downstream will slightly decrease, while procurement in other downstream industries will still be mainly based on “cautious and essential needs”, with insufficient willingness to proactively stock up. In the short term, it is difficult for the demand side to form an effective boost. In the short term, the industry will still face pressure, and companies need to focus on inventory control and cost management; In the long run, the high-quality development of the industry relies on capacity optimization, technological upgrading, and steady recovery of downstream demand.

Review of Acrylic Acid Price Trends in 2025
1. Clear trend with no effective rebound throughout the year:
The price dropped from 8196 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1) to 5900 yuan/ton at the end of the year (December 17), with a cumulative decrease of 2308 yuan/ton. Each node in the chart is below its previous value, showing a clear downward trend, indicating consistent bearish expectations and sustained selling pressure in the market.
2. The decline is expanding quarter by quarter, and the bottom is accelerating in the second half of the year:
In the first half of the year (until June 25th), the price dropped from 8196 to 7009 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 14.5%. The decline is relatively flat.
In the second half of the year (after June 25th), the decline rate significantly accelerated, dropping from 7009 yuan/ton to 5900 yuan/ton, with the decline expanding to about 16%. Especially in the fourth quarter, the year-on-year price decline rapidly expanded from -10.22% to -22.41%, indicating extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
The market logic behind the trend
This trend is a direct manifestation and quantitative proof of the “oversupply” pressure mentioned in previous analysis:
Supply pressure becomes absolutely dominant: prices continue to fall without rebounding, indicating that the release of new production capacity is a sustained and overwhelming force that cannot be countered by any seasonal recovery on the demand side.
The industry has entered a cruel clearing stage: prices fall below the cost line and accelerate their bottoming out, which is a process in which the market forces the elimination of high cost production capacity through price measures and promotes the industry’s supply and demand to find a new balance. The accelerated decline in the chart is likely to be accompanied by some small and medium-sized enterprises reducing or ceasing production.
Summary: The most intuitive epitome of the acrylic acid industry’s shift from tight balance to comprehensive surplus in 2025. It confirms that the industry is undergoing intense supply side adjustments.
Total acrylic acid production capacity by 2025
As of the end of June 2025, the total domestic production capacity of acrylic acid has increased to 4.4 million tons. This is mainly due to the addition of 320000 tons of production capacity in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it is expected that there will still be 740000 tons of planned new production capacity in the market.
Main new production capacity projects and distribution
The release of new production capacity in 2025 will be concentrated in several large enterprises, mainly distributed in the North and South China regions,
The core impact of acrylic acid import and export on the industry in 2025
Export side: Against the backdrop of China’s production capacity accounting for more than half of the world’s total and a sharp decline in domestic prices by 2025, exports are crucial for alleviating overcapacity. However, global market demand is also weak and facing competition from low-cost production capacity in regions such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, resulting in a significant compression of export profit margins.
Import end: Although the total amount may be small, every ton of high-end acrylic acid imported (such as for photoresist and medical gel) means a high-value market for foreign investment. The import dependence of high-end products still exceeds 70%, which directly quantifies the urgency and potential space for domestic industrial upgrading.
Core direction of acrylic acid development in 2026
To overcome the current predicament, the industry must shift from pursuing scale to high-quality development. There are three specific breakthrough directions:

1. High end and “technology premium”
This is the core path to break out of low-level price wars and obtain excess profits.
At present, high-end products such as medical grade acrylic acid (purity ≥ 99.99%) can have a terminal price three times that of ordinary products, but only a few domestic enterprises can produce them. The industry is shifting from “scale competition” to “technology premium” competition. In the future, we need to focus on breakthroughs in cutting-edge fields such as electronic grade acrylic monomers (used for semiconductor photoresist) and bio based acrylic acid.
2. Green process and cost reduction
This is fundamental to enhancing cost competitiveness and achieving sustainable development.
Disruptive technologies such as “direct oxidation of propane to produce acrylic acid” have the advantages of short process, low investment, and low cost compared to traditional multi-step processes, and are important development directions for the future. For example, the billion dollar acrylic acid industrial park invested by Keyuan Holdings in Maoming, Guangdong has adopted this globally leading green technology.
3. Integration of industrial chain and ecological construction
This is the key for top enterprises to consolidate their advantages and enhance their ability to resist risks.
Leading enterprises can significantly reduce costs by integrating upstream and downstream layout. If satellite chemistry achieves a self-sufficiency rate of over 95% in raw materials, the cost per ton is 12% lower than the industry average. Top enterprises are building competitive barriers through “technological iteration+industry chain integration”, and industry concentration continues to increase. In the future, enterprises with full industry chain collaboration capabilities will be more competitive.
In summary, 2025 is a turning point for the acrylic acid industry to experience pain. The sharp decline in prices is a direct manifestation of the contradiction of overcapacity. Looking ahead to the future, the model of simply expanding production capacity has come to an end, and the industry’s way out lies in technological innovation and value enhancement. Enterprises that can successfully move towards “high-end”, master “green technology” and complete “industrial chain integration” will be able to overcome cycles and occupy a leading position in the next round of high-quality development.

Prediction of Acrylic Acid Price Trend in 2026
1. Annual price range:
It is expected that the mainstream market (East China premium products) prices will fluctuate within the range of 5800-7800 yuan/ton. Bottom (approximately 5800 yuan/ton): Hard support constructed by the industry average cash cost line. Once the price falls below this line, it will trigger more high cost production capacity shutdowns, thereby reducing supply.
Top (about 7800 yuan/ton): Strong resistance is formed by the suppression of excess production capacity. Any rebound will stimulate the release of existing production capacity, leading to weak price increases.
2. Seasonal trend:
First half of the year: expected to continue weak. The inertia of decline at the end of 2025, high inventory, and low demand season (especially in the field of architectural coatings) will work together, and prices may test or even briefly break through the cost line.
In the second half of the year, there may be a slight recovery rebound. The driving force may come from: supply contraction caused by the clearance of production capacity below the cost line, mild replenishment during the traditional “golden September and silver October” demand peak season, or unexpected strength in crude oil (propylene raw material) prices. But the rebound height and sustainability will be very limited.
3. Analysis of core influencing factors:
The primary disadvantage is that the contradiction between the total production capacity of up to 4.5 million tons by 2025 and sluggish demand is fundamental. Although the new production increase in 2026 may slow down, it will take time to digest the stock.
Export: is the key to alleviating excess pressure. If overseas demand recovers or the RMB exchange rate is favorable, an increase in exports will become the most important upward catalytic factor.
High end: The prices of ordinary acrylic acid and high-end specialty acrylic acid will continue to diverge. The prices of electronic grade products (which may remain at 15000-40000 yuan/ton) are completely decoupled from the trend of bulk commodities, depending on technological breakthroughs.
Summary: 2026 will be the “grinding year” for the acrylic acid bulk market to confirm the bottom and digest excess production capacity. The overall profitability of the industry will be at a historical low. However, this is also the year of value discovery for high-end products. Enterprises capable of producing high value-added specialty products will have their prices and profits completely independent of the industry’s downturn cycle. Therefore, when observing prices in 2026, it is necessary to distinguish between the two distinct curves of “commodity price index” and “specialty product price”.

2025 is a crucial turning point for the Chinese propylene market. After years of rapid expansion, the supply and demand relationship in the industry has undergone a historic reversal, officially entering the stage of “comprehensive surplus” from “tight balance”. Under the dual pressure of releasing production capacity inertia and weak demand growth, the price center of the market has significantly shifted downwards, and the profitability of the entire industry is facing severe challenges.
2025 Core Summary
1. The imbalance between supply and demand has become the main theme: although the annual production capacity growth rate has slightly slowed down, the absolute increment is huge, and the total production capacity is expected to climb to 77.58 million tons. At the same time, downstream demand such as polypropylene (PP), which is the main consumer force, has been weak due to macroeconomic factors, and the supply-demand scissors gap continues to widen. Taking the Shandong market at the end of the year as an example, the mainstream transaction price fell to around 6000 yuan/ton, a significant decline from the high at the beginning of the year.
2. Structural collapse of industry profits: Under the dual pressure of oversupply and high costs, the industry is experiencing widespread losses. Except for the integrated unit that can still maintain a small profit, the independent propylene production unit and downstream industries such as epichlorohydrin and octanol have seen a significant decline in profits. Especially in the production of PP powder, due to its narrow price difference with the raw material propylene, it has been on the brink of losses for a long time, and the operating rate has remained low. There has even been a phenomenon of integrated equipment selling propylene raw materials in reverse, further exacerbating market pressure.
3. Deep adjustment of market structure: Industry concentration is accelerating, and leading enterprises are strengthening their market dominance through scale and integration advantages. There are 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity exceeding one million tons, and CR10 (the proportion of the top ten enterprises’ production capacity) has risen to 25.69%. The market landscape is evolving from “decentralized competition” to “giant dominance”, and small and medium-sized enterprises are facing enormous survival pressure under cost and technological disadvantages. The industry has already begun.
Based on market data and industry evolution logic by the end of 2025, the core theme of the propylene industry in 2026 will revolve around “deep clearance of overcapacity” and “brutal testing of the cost curve”. The following is a quantitative analysis and scenario deduction based on key data.
Core data: Starting from the market situation at the end of 2025
1. Price and Cost Baseline: By the end of 2025, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market has fallen to 6000 yuan/ton, which has already broken through the cash cost of most non integrated devices. The downstream PP powder production has been in a long-term loss (with a price difference of only 100-200 yuan/ton), resulting in a long-term operating rate below 10%, forming a strong negative feedback loop.
2. Supply rigid data:
Capacity inertia: It is expected that there will still be 6-8 million tons of new production capacity released nationwide in 2026, and even if the growth rate slows down, the absolute increase will still be huge.
Regional pressure: Taking Shandong as an example, the recent release of production capacity from facilities such as Binhua New Materials (PDH) and Lianhong New Materials (MTO) has increased the local daily output from 32600 tons to 33200 tons, and may further rise to 33700 tons. This’ micro ‘growth of local supply pressure is a microcosm of nationwide surplus.

3. Weak demand data: Except for PP, the profits of major downstream products such as propylene oxide and octanol have significantly decreased by -339.02% and -20.6% month on month by the end of 2025, indicating that the downstream capacity is approaching its limit.
2026 trend quantification deduction: three key dimensions
1. Price range prediction: cost pricing, bottom oscillation
The market price will be determined by the survivor with the highest marginal cost. Combining current data with cost structure:
Price ceiling (strong resistance level): 6200-6300 yuan/ton. This position corresponds to the full cost line of some PDH devices and integrated devices at present. Once the price approaches, profit driven supply will quickly rebound, thereby suppressing prices.
Core oscillation range: 5800-6100 yuan/ton. This range will cover most of the trading time in 2026. A price below 5900 yuan/ton will trigger large-scale production cuts in high cost units, especially MTO units that purchase methanol externally.
Key cost bottom line: 5500-5700 yuan/ton. This range corresponds to the cash cost line of the most cost-effective coal to olefin (CTO) and large-scale integrated facilities in China, and is expected to be the ultimate strong support for prices. If it falls below this line, it will trigger a large-scale production reduction at the industry level, but the probability is low.
2. Prediction of Capacity Clearing Process
The utilization rate of industry capacity will continue to be under pressure. Based on the current industry operating rate of about 65%, the deduction is as follows:
When the price remains below 5900 yuan/ton for 6-8 weeks, it is expected to first cause about 15-20% of the high cost marginal production capacity (including some old refining propylene units and independent MTO units) to experience cash flow depletion, entering a substantial shutdown or permanent exit process.
Based on a total production capacity base of over 77.58 million tons, the capacity scale for passive clearance in the first stage may be between 5-8 million tons. This will be a necessary condition for the market to achieve rebalancing.
3. Industry profitability and structural differentiation
Profit differentiation will further intensify, forming a “dual sky” pattern of “ice and fire”:
Cost characteristics of enterprise types (estimated) Key survival actions for 2026 profit prospects, low cash costs for top integrated enterprises (approximately 5500-5700 yuan/ton), and strong industrial chain buffering. Micro profit to break even. It can be adjusted through downstream product profits to cross the cycle. Counter trend expansion and integration: Utilize the downturn to carry out technological transformation and low-cost mergers and acquisitions.
The cost of independent PDH enterprises is greatly affected by fluctuations in imported propane prices, with cash costs of approximately 5800-6000 yuan/ton. Periodic losses. Profit depends on the ability to manage the price difference between propane and propylene. Ultimate hedging and logistics optimization: Lock in raw material price differences and control single ton costs.
Independent MTO and old equipment have high cash costs (generally above 6000 yuan/ton) and no cost advantage. Deep losses and negative cash flow. Reduce production to save life or permanently exit: Some devices will switch to “on/off” mode until shutdown.
Key Variables and Scenario Analysis

1. The international oil price center has risen significantly to over 90 US dollars per barrel. This will strongly push up the cost of naphtha and derivative routes from the cost side, providing unexpected support for propylene prices. The core range may move up to 6000-6400 yuan/ton, delaying the process of capacity clearance.
2. Slow rebalancing of supply and demand. The price fluctuated throughout the year in the range of 5800-6100 yuan/ton, and high cost production capacity slowly withdrew. The industry operating rate may slightly rebound to 68-70% by the end of the year. This is the most likely path.
3. Macroeconomic demand is further weaker than expected, and new production capacity is concentrated. The price may temporarily drop to the cost bottom line of 5500-5700 yuan/ton, triggering a severe and rapid clearance of production capacity, intensifying industry pains but shortening the adjustment time.
Conclusion
In 2026, the propylene industry will transition from the first stage of “price decline” to the second stage of “capacity clearance”. The market will use the entire year to answer a core question: how much production capacity cannot survive at a price level below 5900 yuan/ton?
For participants, this is no longer a story of pursuing growth, but a severe test of survival and efficiency. Investment and business decisions must be based on refined cost calculations and keen observation of production capacity exit signals. The ultimate recovery of the industry will begin with the continuous news of outdated production capacity being shut down, and this “clearing voice” will become the most noteworthy main theme of the market in 2026.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. On December 22nd, the average market price was 748 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. On December 21st, the Business Social Chemical Index was 763 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 27.59% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 690-780 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 760-870 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2100-2200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). There has been no change in the supply and demand pattern this week, with high production levels and supply remaining loose. Downstream alumina has shown moderate enthusiasm for entering the market recently, and the market is still in a stalemate, with more demand for caustic soda. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period. Short term domestic alumina prices have fluctuated slightly.
Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been consolidating this week. Domestic downstream buyers have been purchasing on demand, and there will be no positive support for the Shandong market next week. Demand has not substantially improved, and the overall supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a consolidating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 12th to 19th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7537 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 1.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.45%. The domestic BDO market is in a stalemate, with both supply and demand increasing, and the supply-demand game intensifying, resulting in fluctuations in the market range.
On the supply side and in terms of equipment, the supply volume of BDO market has increased, and the support on the supply side has weakened. The supply side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The calcium carbide market is showing a downward trend. On the supply side, due to the orderly electricity policy in Inner Mongolia and the short-term maintenance of some enterprises in Wuhai, the stability of calcium carbide production has decreased, and the supply has experienced a narrow contraction. Raw material methanol: Domestic methanol prices have weakly declined. As of 10:00 am on December 19th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2150 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is declining, while the methanol market is expected to rise, and the impact of BDO cost is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream PBT production has increased, while there have been no significant changes in other industries, resulting in an increase in raw material digestion. However, under cost pressure, contract follow-up is still maintained, and spot trading is light and negotiated. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.
Market forecast: supply increases and demand decreases, negotiation game continues, and market fluctuations are difficult. Part of the devices are operating at increased load, resulting in an increase in the supply of goods. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation.

This week, the polyester bottle chip market as a whole showed a “narrow decline” trend. As of December 12th, the average selling price of PET was 5725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% from the beginning of the week. On the futures side, the main selling price of bottle chips fluctuated downward from the closing price of 5748 yuan/ton on the 8th, and the closing price on the 12th fell to 5616 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 132 yuan/ton for the whole week. The core driving factor is the sustained weakness in terminal demand, coupled with insufficient cost support.
The demand side is the main pressure: currently in the off-season of traditional demand, downstream industries such as soft drinks have low purchasing enthusiasm and mainly rely on replenishment for essential needs. The weak terminal consumption has led to a lack of effective driving force for bottle and tablet consumption, resulting in a sluggish market transaction atmosphere, which is the core reason for the downward trend in prices.
Cost support has weakened from strong to weak: Although the industry operating rate of PTA, the main upstream raw material, has remained at 73.81%, the fluctuation of international oil prices during the week has weakened the cost support for polyester raw materials and failed to provide a strong boost to bottle chip prices.
The supply side remains loose: the industry operating rate exceeds 73%, which is at a relatively high level, and the market spot supply is sufficient. Against the backdrop of weak demand, the loose supply pattern has further intensified downward pressure on prices.
Market sentiment cautious: Currently, the production gross profit of the polyester bottle chip industry is still negative, and the mentality of enterprises is cautious. Trading in the spot market is light, and although the trading volume in the futures market maintains a certain scale, prices continue to decline, reflecting a lack of confidence in the future market.
Overall, Business Society believes that the current market lacks strong upward momentum. In the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand and limited cost support, it is expected that the polyester bottle chip market will continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 10th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2636.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 86.67 yuan/ton or 3.40% compared to the price of 2550.00 yuan/ton on December 1st. The domestic acetic acid market continued to rise in early December. In terms of supply, the restart of some maintenance equipment has been postponed, and new enterprise equipment maintenance has been added. The operating rate of acetic acid has decreased, the market spot supply has decreased, and the inventory of enterprises continues to decline. The atmosphere of rising prices in the market is strong, and downstream performance is stable. Follow up on market demand, strong support from market suppliers, and a strong upward trend in acetic acid prices.
In early December, the raw material methanol market experienced a weak downward trend. As of the 10th, the average price in the domestic market was 2080.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% compared to the price of 2125.00 yuan/ton on December 1st. In December, the amount of methanol arriving at the port increased, and the supply in the port market was sufficient. The expected operating rate of methanol in mainland China is expected to be bullish, and there is significant pressure on spot supply. At the same time, downstream inventories are high, and the atmosphere for market entry and procurement is weak. Methanol companies have poor shipments, and the methanol market is operating weakly.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is relatively strong and rising. From December 1st to 10th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was raised from 4012.50 yuan/ton to 4130.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93%. Upstream acetic acid continues to rise, and the cost pressure of acetic anhydride increases. Downstream market purchases follow up on demand, and demand has rebounded. With cost support, the price of acetic anhydride is running relatively strong during the cycle.
In terms of future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic acetic acid production rate is not high, enterprise inventory is low, and manufacturers have a clear bullish mentality. Downstream purchases follow up on demand, and the fundamental supply is relatively strong. It is expected that the acetic acid market will remain strong in the later stage, and attention will be paid to the market supply situation in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12833 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12866/ton, with a price increase of 0.26%.
Domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers’ prices have risen this week, with the ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon in East China ranging from 9500-13000 yuan/ton. Coconut shell activated carbon has strong demand in water treatment, air purification, sodium ion batteries and other fields. In addition, the extended shipping cycle, increased storage and environmental protection requirements have pushed up import costs, which is favorable for supporting price increases.
The main coconut producing countries in Southeast Asia have been affected by natural disasters, policy adjustments, and other factors, resulting in a shortage of coconut shell carbonization materials and a rise in coconut shell charcoal prices. The FOB price of coconut shell carbonization material in Indonesia is about 898-901 US dollars/ton, Sri Lanka is about 924-928 US dollars/ton, and India is about 958-980 US dollars/ton.
Prediction: Due to the tight supply of coconut shell activated carbon raw materials in China and the increasing demand, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term.