According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 29th, the price of lead 1 # was 16780 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the lead price of 16805 yuan/ton on August 25th, a decrease of 0.15%.
This week’s market analysis
At the beginning of the week, market prices lightly touched the high area, which was mainly boosted by two positive factors: on the one hand, the market’s expectation of a reduction in future supply continued to increase, and on the other hand, many bullish signals were released at the macro level, jointly driving prices upward. Entering the middle of the week, market prices turned into a narrow range operation trend, during which prices once fell to a low level. This was mainly due to concerns about the uncertainty of the supply side in the market, while the demand side also showed a cautious wait-and-see attitude, making prices lack further upward momentum.
This week, the performance of the Shanghai lead market showed a phased change. In the first half of the week, driven by a positive macro environment and reduced supply expectations, prices experienced a rebound trend. During the mid week period, lead prices briefly rose, but later due to stable downstream consumer demand and no significant increase in purchasing and stocking willingness of downstream enterprises, the upward momentum of lead prices weakened, and some of the previous gains subsequently fell back.
supply side
Due to the periodic maintenance of equipment and environmental restrictions imposed by some enterprises, the expectation of maintenance and shutdown in primary lead smelters has significantly increased; At the same time, recycled lead enterprises are constrained by the tight supply of raw materials and waste batteries, as well as the compression of profit margins, resulting in a continuous decline in overall operating levels. The market’s spot supply is expected to further decrease, and the supply-demand situation may continue to be tight.
demand side
The consumption rate of lead ingot inventory by downstream battery companies is relatively slow, so overall, the procurement of lead ingots is expected to maintain a rigid demand procurement mode. Some companies mainly receive goods through long orders, and there is still a certain tendency to lower prices when purchasing lead ingots.
comprehensive analysis
In the current market environment, the fundamentals of the lead industry have not fully improved, mainly due to the slow recovery process of the consumer side. However, given the short-term market sentiment fluctuations and changes in capital flows, there may be some room for a rebound in lead prices.