1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has been on the rise recently. The average price of ethylene on the 21st was 842.50 US dollars / ton, 1.84% higher than that on the 17th, 827.25 US dollars / ton. The current price is 7.01% lower than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene is on the rise this week. Prices in the Asian ethylene market rose, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $832-840 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $712-720 per ton by the end of the week. The price of European ethylene market rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at US $949-962 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $858-866 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose first and then fell. As of the end of the week, the price was US $451-463 / ton. Overall: in recent years, the European and American ethylene market overall rose, and the overall ethylene market rose. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on January 20, the New York Mercantile Exchange closed, and Brent crude oil futures rose to $65.20/barrel, up $0.35 or 0.5% from the previous trading day. According to the news, Libya’s two largest oil fields were closed due to the military blockade, and the continuous rise of crude oil played a supporting role in the price of ethylene. In the later stage, it was good to support the rise of ethylene price, and the external market of ethylene rose this week. The price of styrene in the lower reaches was concussive and consolidated, and the price of ethanol remained stable, which supported the price of ethylene.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analysts of business Chemical Branch, the recent force majeure in Libya’s key crude oil production may affect the pricing of Mediterranean light and low sulfur crude oil, so analysts of business data expect that ethylene prices will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of rising.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on January 1, 2020, the average ex factory sample price of 85% formic acid purified water was 1950 yuan / ton. As of January 20, the average sample price did not increase, except for a small number of dealers.

2、 Market analysis products: this month, the domestic industrial grade formic acid market as a whole shows a stable trend. Although the dealer price has been slightly reduced in the month, the price is still at a high level. At the beginning of January, during the Spring Festival, enterprises have generally entered the Spring Festival holiday, and there is no significant fluctuation in market price adjustment. In the second week of January, the price of enterprises did not rise. Most of the prices of enterprises continued years ago, and the formic acid market was dominated by wait-and-see. Near the end of January, the market tends to be weak and stable. Enterprises in the market have stocks, and the prices of manufacturers and enterprises are generally 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of domestic liquid ammonia for the upstream products of formic acid did not fluctuate greatly in January, and some units were shut down for maintenance near the Spring Festival. The market supply is sufficient, but the price of transportation price will increase a little. Since January, the upstream caustic soda has continued to maintain stable operation as a whole, except for the partial price fluctuation of some manufacturers. The downstream pesticide, printing and dyeing and other industries received goods well, The upstream raw materials support the formic acid market.

3、 According to the formic acid analysts of Houshi prediction business agency, the domestic formic acid market is generally stable at present, but the price has basically no fluctuation since January. The upstream raw materials support is acceptable, the supply of formic acid market is sufficient, the downstream production capacity is acceptable, and the price is enough to support the supply of years ago.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price rose first and then fell after the new year’s day, and the overall zinc price rose in shock. As of January 19, the spot price of zinc was 18063.33 yuan / ton, up by 1.36% compared with 18353.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and down by 14.19% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic zinc Market

After the new year’s day, zinc market is mainly divided into two stages. From January 1 to January 8, zinc price rises sharply. Affected by the stock up of Spring Festival, zinc market has a short-term demand rise and zinc price rises sharply. From January 9 to January 19, zinc price falls in shock. With the end of stock up of manufacturers, zinc price loses the support of rising and zinc price falls in shock. Zinc market stock rises, zinc ingot supply increases and zinc market rises The force is weakened.

International LME Market

It can be seen from the figure that the price of zinc in LME market rose after new year’s day, and the rise of international zinc price has a good support for domestic zinc market.

Zinc concentrate processing fee

The processing fee of zinc concentrate decreased slightly, but the overall processing fee of zinc concentrate is still at a high level, the price of processing fee is high, the cost of zinc ingot is high, the falling space of zinc price is limited, and the power of zinc price rising is great.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of the business association, believes that: after the new year’s day, the processing fee of zinc concentrate is still at a high level, zinc smelting enterprises are highly motivated to start work, the supply of zinc ingots is sufficient, and the stock of zinc ingots is large, which has a certain negative impact on the zinc market; during the Spring Festival stock up, zinc enterprises raise the price of zinc, but the overall deal in the zinc market is cold, and the power of zinc price rise is insufficient; with the end of the stock up in the Spring Festival, the pressure of zinc price decline increases, and zinc prices increase Price volatility fell. In the future, the rise of international zinc price is good for domestic zinc market. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of zinc market is sufficient in the near future, the demand is cold, and the power of zinc price rise is insufficient. However, with the approaching of Spring Festival, the supply of zinc market will be affected by enterprise holidays. Before the year, the supply of zinc market may be short for a while. The seller’s market will appear in the zinc market next week or for a short time, and there is still room for zinc price rise next week. Zinc prices are expected to surge next week.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA6 in China rose in mid January, and the prices of various brands rose. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 13166.67 yuan / ton, up 3.95% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Caprolactam in the upper reaches of PA6 bottomed out this month and recovered. After a big fall, caprolactam started to rise. Recent raw material price support, coupled with the lack of supply of products affected by the weather in the north, the manufacturer intends to raise the price, the main caprolactam brand price increases to boost confidence in the field, and the downstream demand is OK. It is expected that caprolactam will maintain a certain upward trend in the later period, and it is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price; supported by the cost end of caprolactam’s increase, PA6 manufacturers raised the main model price in the second half of this week, driving dealers to hold up the price, and the mentality in the field was positively affected. The stock up before the festival also contributed to the improvement of PA6 demand, and the on-site trading turned warm.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in January, the domestic PA6 market rose steadily, and some spot prices rose by a large margin. The trend of caprolactam upstream is positive, which supports the cost end of PA6. The replenishment enthusiasm of downstream factories has improved, and the delivery and investment situation has improved. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be sorted and operated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the recent weak operation of monoammonium phosphate Market, the price fell steadily. On January 6, the market price of powdered monoammonium was 1906 yuan / ton, and on January 15, the market price of powdered monoammonium was 1890 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.87%. On January 15, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 63.26, unchanged from yesterday, 37.27% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 1.88% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the operating rate of the enterprise is about 50%. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1800-2000 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 1950-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation. The ex factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder is 1800-1950 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, which is stable. The factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is 1850 yuan -2000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the supply and demand of sulfur market is weak. Affected by environmental protection policies, the downstream demand is in a low level, and the delivery performance of refineries in various regions is poor, with narrow range arrangement. Refineries in various regions adjust their quotation according to their own delivery situation in the week. The quotation in East China and Shandong is stable, and the price of refineries in North China is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. Since the winter, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been in a weak and stable operation state. During this period, some mining enterprises reduced their prices or limited production slightly to meet the market demand in the off-season. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, mines around the country gradually stopped mining, and some enterprises in Hubei and Sichuan are now in the phase of shutdown. Some enterprises in Guizhou also have maintenance plans before and after the Spring Festival.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, the demand side is still weak, and the downstream purchases on demand. In recent years, the transportation difficulties in many places have led to the increase of freight, and the overall price fluctuation is not big. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will not change significantly in the later period, and the market will still be weak and stable.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (January 15, 2020): 14083.33 yuan / ton

On January 15, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was weak and stable, and the specific price range was as follows:

The ex factory foreign exchange including tax in Fugu area is 138500-14100 yuan / ton; the foreign exchange in Taiyuan area is 14000-14100 yuan / ton; the foreign exchange in Wenxi area is 14050-14200 yuan / ton; and the foreign exchange in Ningxia area is 13900-14000 yuan / ton.

3. Key points of analysis: close to the Spring Festival, the trading tends to be weak, and the magnesium ingot market runs smoothly. It is reported that the magnesium ingot manufacturers’ pre-sale situation has occurred from time to time in the near future. The manufacturers’ low price pre-sale, after all, there is a rapid return of capital demand at the end of the year. At present, the downstream alloy manufacturers and magnesium powder manufacturers have completed their stock in succession years ago. The downstream raw material inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and there are not many magnesium ingot manufacturers in stock, so there is a balance between supply and demand.

4. Future market forecast: supply and demand are in a stalemate, adding that the Spring Festival is coming, and trading tends to be weak. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will maintain stable operation in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be concerned in the later stage.

1、 Price trend:

On January 10, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 61.81, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.41% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 38.71% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: this week’s Hydrogenated benzene market is slightly lower, and the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China is 5750-5850 yuan / ton as of Friday. In terms of operating rate, the overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises this week is about 60%, slightly higher than last week. This week, overall, the positive impact of the upstream boost is limited, and the losses of downstream styrene, aniline, cyclohexanone and other products continue, with low purchase intention, and the trend of shocks before the festival.

Industry chain: this week’s oil price shows a parabola trend, which goes down for four consecutive days after Monday’s big rise. Earlier this week, oil prices rose as concerns about the supply or decline of crude oil increased as tensions in the Middle East escalated last week. Later, oil prices fell sharply due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and signs of easing in the Middle East. WTI fell by 6.1% and Brent by 2.8% compared with January 3; pure benzene: Port inventory of pure benzene decreased slightly this week compared with last week. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back. Downstream: this week, styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend. The arrival of styrene in the main port increased. Generally speaking, the styrene market was forced to stay short this week, with a trading deadlock, up 1.17% compared with last Friday. In the lower reaches of Shandong Province, aniline enterprises competed for shipment, and Jinling reduced 100 yuan / ton, or 0.52%. The upstream pure benzene price is still high, the downstream demand is light, and the profits of aniline enterprises are in deficit.

3、 Trend Forecast:

At present, the external market of pure benzene has a limited boost, crude oil has returned to the previous level, the follow-up direction is unclear, the winter transportation is more difficult, the north is snowy, the transportation is limited, the North resources are difficult to enter East China for arbitrage, the freight price is rising and other adverse factors are more, and in the follow-up, the market of hydrogenated benzene before the festival is mainly weak shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong Province was 6900.00 yuan / ton, down 15.34% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s octanol market was temporarily stable, with the octanol commodity index at 50.74 on January 10.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream octanol manufacturers is temporarily stable: hualuhengsheng’s ex factory quotation of octanol this weekend is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 6904.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7079.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.53%, down 14.71% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory fell slightly this week. DOP quotation dropped from 7316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.23%, down 15.44% year on year. Downstream customers are less active in purchasing octanol, and the demand for octanol is general. The decline of DOP price has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose slightly and the cost support was good, but the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, in the middle of January, the octanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market this week rose strongly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2097 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2207 yuan / ton, up 5.24% in the week, 3.88% on a month on month basis, down 3.52% on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the methanol market in the mainland is generally higher this week. Under the background of terminal stock before the festival and low factory inventory in the main production area, the trading atmosphere of this week is obviously better. In addition, due to the snow weather, the highway is closed, and the regional trend is prominent, but the overall trend is strong. This week’s methanol port inventory decreased, with a total inventory of 854600 tons in East and South China, down 36300 tons from last week. Due to weather factors, the port closure in Jiangsu province leads to slow unloading and relatively stable cargo preparation and pick-up in the downstream before the festival, which is the main factor for the reduction of social inventory of the port.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market was partially reorganized and operated. Affected by the continuous increase of methanol market in the upstream, formaldehyde enterprises in some regions raised their offer, and the production cost continued to increase. However, the start-up level in the downstream market was low, the overall demand was weak, and the pressure of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment and inventory was increased, so the production cost could not be transferred to the downstream market, which led to the start-up of formaldehyde Market in this week being low, and some of them were in a loss state.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market rose slightly this week. In the early stage, Jiangsu Thorpe, Henan Shunda and Hebei Jiantao acetic acid plants were shut down, the social inventory of the acetic acid market was gradually digested, and the downstream industries started to operate stably. The demand for acetic acid was supported. In the event that Henan Longyu plant failed for a short time and sustained half load state in the later stage, the spot supply of the market was stepped up, and the supplier made an overall offer It rose to some extent, breaking the previous stable trend of acetic acid market. However, the substantial demand in the South China market has weakened, and the supply and demand balance and stable price are mainly maintained in the local area. Due to the weather, the transportation in the northwest is not smooth, and the supplier’s inventory has been accumulated, while the passive stable price is mainly. Near the end of the week, the market recovered stable after a small rise, and the short-term downstream substantial demand was mainly stable. Although the supply of acetic acid market was tight, it could still be supplied, and the market continued to be stable gradually.

Dimethyl ether: the price of dimethyl ether will enter a stable period after a wide rise in the near future. The high price of terminal liquefied gas leads to poor terminal receiving mentality. Even though the price is temporarily stable, the enterprise’s shipment is flat, and the enterprise’s current terminal inventory is above the middle level. In terms of transportation, Shanxi and other places have begun to resume transportation. Due to the increase of market supply, the price of DME is expected to be stable at the beginning of next week.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the procurement volume of olefins in Northwest China is quite considerable, with stable long-term implementation, and the inventory of most manufacturers in Northwest China is not high; in January, the maintenance of international methanol plant is centralized, and the estimated arrival of imported methanol is about 900000 tons; the social inventory of methanol in port continues to decrease, and the downstream is still expected to be stocked. In terms of bad news, southwest natural gas methanol plant is expected to restart in the middle and late of January; the output of new methanol plant in Northwest will be released; some olefin plants in port, northwest and Shandong will issue the first quarter maintenance plan, such as Yangmei Hengtong, Zhejiang Xingxing, etc.; environmental protection monitoring and the impact of low winter temperature, plate plants in Hebei, Shandong, southwest and other places have been shut down, half a month ahead of the previous year The demand for aldehydes decreased significantly. In terms of the mainland, with the support of MTO raw material outsourcing enterprises in the northwest, the pressure on the overall inventory arrangement of the methanol plant in the northwest is not great before the festival this year, and some enterprises have good pre-sale. However, the progress of goods preparation in the mainland market before the Spring Festival is different, and the next week will be the supplementary stage of goods preparation before the festival. The methanol analyst of the business society predicted that the short-term domestic methanol market is likely to present a regional market. At present, the arrival of imported methanol ships is not concentrated, and the downstream delivery speed is acceptable, and the social inventory will continue to decrease, which is beneficial to the port market trend

1、 Trend analysis

 
According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on January 9, the spot nickel price increased slightly, with the quotation of 114116.67 yuan / ton, 2.72% higher than the previous day, and 23.82% higher than the previous year. Shanghai nickel opened at 109000 yuan, followed by a sharp rise in price, closing at 111540 yuan, or 2.11%. LME3 ended 0.96% higher at $14205 at the end of the month.

2、 Market analysis

The basic level of nickel market has not changed much. The early prohibition of mining in Indonesia has changed the supply pattern of nickel market, and the domestic ferronickel production capacity has transferred to Indonesia. The Philippines, New Caledonia and Guatemala will play an alternative role in the import of nickel ore, but they cannot fully meet the demand. The nickel iron plant has fully prepared the ore, the short-term supply is sufficient, and the downstream stainless steel is still weak. Nickel prices rose slightly today, mainly due to the impact of floods in Indonesia on the shipment of nickel ore and the expected impact of a reduction in nickel supply.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: nickel fundamentals have little change, and the flood in Indonesia affects the supply of nickel mine. Near the end of the year, the demand is further weakened, and it is expected that nickel will maintain a volatile trend in the short term.