1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market this week rose strongly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2097 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2207 yuan / ton, up 5.24% in the week, 3.88% on a month on month basis, down 3.52% on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the methanol market in the mainland is generally higher this week. Under the background of terminal stock before the festival and low factory inventory in the main production area, the trading atmosphere of this week is obviously better. In addition, due to the snow weather, the highway is closed, and the regional trend is prominent, but the overall trend is strong. This week’s methanol port inventory decreased, with a total inventory of 854600 tons in East and South China, down 36300 tons from last week. Due to weather factors, the port closure in Jiangsu province leads to slow unloading and relatively stable cargo preparation and pick-up in the downstream before the festival, which is the main factor for the reduction of social inventory of the port.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market was partially reorganized and operated. Affected by the continuous increase of methanol market in the upstream, formaldehyde enterprises in some regions raised their offer, and the production cost continued to increase. However, the start-up level in the downstream market was low, the overall demand was weak, and the pressure of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment and inventory was increased, so the production cost could not be transferred to the downstream market, which led to the start-up of formaldehyde Market in this week being low, and some of them were in a loss state.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market rose slightly this week. In the early stage, Jiangsu Thorpe, Henan Shunda and Hebei Jiantao acetic acid plants were shut down, the social inventory of the acetic acid market was gradually digested, and the downstream industries started to operate stably. The demand for acetic acid was supported. In the event that Henan Longyu plant failed for a short time and sustained half load state in the later stage, the spot supply of the market was stepped up, and the supplier made an overall offer It rose to some extent, breaking the previous stable trend of acetic acid market. However, the substantial demand in the South China market has weakened, and the supply and demand balance and stable price are mainly maintained in the local area. Due to the weather, the transportation in the northwest is not smooth, and the supplier’s inventory has been accumulated, while the passive stable price is mainly. Near the end of the week, the market recovered stable after a small rise, and the short-term downstream substantial demand was mainly stable. Although the supply of acetic acid market was tight, it could still be supplied, and the market continued to be stable gradually.

Dimethyl ether: the price of dimethyl ether will enter a stable period after a wide rise in the near future. The high price of terminal liquefied gas leads to poor terminal receiving mentality. Even though the price is temporarily stable, the enterprise’s shipment is flat, and the enterprise’s current terminal inventory is above the middle level. In terms of transportation, Shanxi and other places have begun to resume transportation. Due to the increase of market supply, the price of DME is expected to be stable at the beginning of next week.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the procurement volume of olefins in Northwest China is quite considerable, with stable long-term implementation, and the inventory of most manufacturers in Northwest China is not high; in January, the maintenance of international methanol plant is centralized, and the estimated arrival of imported methanol is about 900000 tons; the social inventory of methanol in port continues to decrease, and the downstream is still expected to be stocked. In terms of bad news, southwest natural gas methanol plant is expected to restart in the middle and late of January; the output of new methanol plant in Northwest will be released; some olefin plants in port, northwest and Shandong will issue the first quarter maintenance plan, such as Yangmei Hengtong, Zhejiang Xingxing, etc.; environmental protection monitoring and the impact of low winter temperature, plate plants in Hebei, Shandong, southwest and other places have been shut down, half a month ahead of the previous year The demand for aldehydes decreased significantly. In terms of the mainland, with the support of MTO raw material outsourcing enterprises in the northwest, the pressure on the overall inventory arrangement of the methanol plant in the northwest is not great before the festival this year, and some enterprises have good pre-sale. However, the progress of goods preparation in the mainland market before the Spring Festival is different, and the next week will be the supplementary stage of goods preparation before the festival. The methanol analyst of the business society predicted that the short-term domestic methanol market is likely to present a regional market. At present, the arrival of imported methanol ships is not concentrated, and the downstream delivery speed is acceptable, and the social inventory will continue to decrease, which is beneficial to the port market trend