1、 Price trend this month
Polyester bottle flakes surged in the first half of March, peaked and fell back in the middle, and fluctuated at a high level in the second half, driven by cost and experiencing a roller coaster market. According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, as of March 30th, the mainstream average spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 8800 yuan/ton.
Early October (1-15): Violent increase in the ex factory price of East China water bottle tablets: 6200 → 7800 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of about 26%. Futures main chain: 6200 → 9068 yuan/ton (high point on March 16). Drivers: skyrocketing crude oil prices, rising PX/PTA costs, overseas shortages, and domestic factory closures and reluctance to sell.
Mid month (16-20): Futures fell from 9068 yuan/ton to 8262 yuan/ton at the peak, and spot prices fell 806 yuan/ton in 5 days, leading to a simultaneous correction in the market from grabbing goods to observing.
Late period (21-30): The volatility repair futures fluctuated in the range of 8000-8700 yuan/ton. Spot: East China 8300 → 8800 yuan/ton (30). Closing on the 30th: Futures 8326 yuan/ton, spot 8800 yuan/ton.
2、 Driven by core market trends
Cost end
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a surge in crude oil prices, causing PX, PTA, and MEG to rise across the board, resulting in a rigid increase in bottle costs and violent price increases in the first half of the year.
In the middle of the month, geopolitical sentiment eased, oil prices fell, raw material prices weakened synchronously, cost support weakened, and bottle chip prices peaked and fell.
In the latter half of the year, oil prices fluctuated repeatedly, raw materials fluctuated widely, and bottle prices fluctuated with high costs.
supply side
The domestic operating rate is only about 71.5%, and large factories are closing down and reluctant to sell, with tight spot circulation, coupled with low inventory levels, exacerbating supply shortages.
Structural shortages in North America and the European Union overseas, with global production capacity concentrated in China and exports diverted from domestic sources, further driving up domestic prices.
The equipment will gradually restart in the latter half of the year, and the supply shortage will slightly ease, but it is still in a tight balance state.
Demand side
The domestic beverage peak season stocking has started, with immediate demand supporting prices, but high prices suppressing procurement. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand and inventory digestion.
The concentrated outbreak of overseas replenishment demand has led to an improvement in export orders, diverting domestic sources of goods and widening the supply-demand gap.
market sentiment
In the first half of the year, panic buying and reluctance to sell led to a strengthening of the basis, driving prices to quickly rise.
In the second half of the year, profit taking and wait-and-see intensified, trading volume was light, and prices fell from high levels and fluctuated.
3、 Short term outlook (early April)
In April, polyester bottle flakes will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with a range of 8200-8800 yuan/ton, focusing on core variables such as crude oil trends, the situation in the Middle East, factory operations, and downstream procurement rhythm.