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The fluctuation of equipment during the week was limited, and inventory digestion was slow during the Spring Festival period. Some enterprises’ inventory increased, leading to an increase in supply. However, the price trend of raw material propylene was strong, and the production cost pressure of acrylonitrile increased, causing the market to bottom out and consolidate. As of February 27th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 7100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday.
Supply remains loose:
The fluctuation of the equipment during the week was limited, and the production of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 520000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit increased to around 80%, resulting in an increase in supply. According to statistics, as of February 26th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 75.61%, an increase of 0.47% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 88200 tons, which is+0.05 million tons compared to the previous cycle. Supply increased during the week, while inventory digestion was slow during the Spring Festival, leading to an increase in inventory for some companies. As of February 26th, the total inventory was around 53000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons from before the holiday.
Slow increase in demand:
This week, the overall capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has increased, with equipment such as Jihua Jieyang increasing its load. The capacity utilization rate of ABS has increased to 70.70%, an increase of 0.2% compared to last week; Ningbo Zhongxin has restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry is 80.74%, an increase of 1.83% compared to last week; After the holiday, factories resumed work one after another, and the utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity increased to 46.63%, an increase of 11.19% compared to last week, with overall demand slowly increasing.
The trend of raw materials is relatively strong:
The price trend of raw material propylene is relatively strong, and the production cost pressure of acrylonitrile remains unchanged. The price of acrylonitrile remained low during the week, while the price of raw material propylene continued to rise, and the production loss situation continued to worsen. According to statistics, as of February 26th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6525 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from 6445 yuan/ton before the holiday. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 8658 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 0.65%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -1267 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of -105 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the domestic acrylonitrile market will experience slight consolidation in the near future, with varying adjustments in quotes from major suppliers, but the price difference between the north and south will gradually narrow. Under the pressure of losses, manufacturers have a willingness to raise prices, but the fundamentals are weak. The overall supply is loose while demand still needs to fully recover, and the market lacks further upward momentum. In the short term, minor consolidation is the main trend.

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On February 26th, the diethylene glycol market was weak and volatile, with spot prices in East China closing at 3205 yuan/ton and -25 yuan/ton; South China closed at 3300 yuan/ton, with stable market prices. The situation of downstream resumption of work and production after the holiday is average, and there is a lack of actual order negotiations in the market.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of February 23, the inventory of diethylene glycol at ports in East China was 52100 tons, an increase of 9300 tons from the previous cycle. This week (February 24th March 2nd), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol is expected to arrive at a ship of 14787 tons, with a significant increase in expected port arrivals. However, there will be some replenishment behavior in the market after the holiday, and coupled with the gradual resumption of work and production downstream, port shipments may increase. The inventory changes at the main ports in East China this week are not significant.
Demand: Downstream demand still needs to recover. Unsaturated resin plants will gradually resume operation within the week, with an average of 15% of domestic unsaturated resin factories operating, a decrease of 5 percentage points from before the holiday. The resumption of work and production is slow, and there is pressure on traders to ship. On February 25th, a total of 496 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 68 tons compared to the previous day.
Cost: The increase in US commercial crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with a generally wait-and-see attitude in the market before the US Iran talks, resulting in mixed fluctuations in international oil prices.
Market expectation: Port arrivals are relatively concentrated in the near future, downstream resumption of work and production is slow, and there is still a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the main port. There are many external unstable factors, and the market lacks substantial driving force. In the short term, the ethylene glycol market maintains a volatile pattern, and downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton, indicating an overall oversupply in the market and insufficient downstream demand, resulting in a lack of motivation for price increases.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the supply side is loose and there is overcapacity. The total domestic DMF production capacity has increased from 910000 tons/year in 2021 to 1.77 million tons/year in 2025, an increase of over 94%. However, the slow growth of downstream demand has led to a long-term oversupply in the market. Although the industry’s operating rate remains at a low level of around 40%, inventory remains high, and there is significant pressure on companies to ship. Downstream demand is weak, and support is insufficient. DMF’s largest downstream is PU pulp (accounting for about 59%), which is applied in consumer fields such as luggage and shoes, and is significantly affected by macroeconomic factors; The demand for industries such as electronics (20%) and pharmaceuticals (11%) is mainly based on “essential procurement”, lacking the motivation for large-scale replenishment. The overall demand presents the characteristics of “not strong during peak season and weaker during off-season”.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable, with a small range of price fluctuations and narrow fluctuations.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 2 to February 9, 2026, the domestic butadiene market saw a slight decline, with prices dropping from 10400 yuan/ton to 10033.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53%. The overall market consolidation in this cycle is weak, with some looseness in supplier offers, downstream pre holiday stocking ending, and weakened support for essential demand. Multiple factors have jointly driven prices to slightly decline.
On the cost side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen in this cycle, and market expectations for energy demand have cooled down. Coupled with the rising risk aversion of funds before the holiday, crude oil prices have rebounded at a high level, which has weakened the cost support for the butadiene industry chain. The price of naphtha synchronously follows the fluctuations of crude oil, with a slight downward shift in the overall center of gravity. The cost support for butadiene has weakened compared to the previous period, providing space for market price correction. As of February 6th, the settlement price of the March contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.55 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April is $68.05 per barrel.
Supply side: During this cycle, most of the main domestic butadiene production enterprises have maintained normal operation of their facilities, with a stable overall supply level and sufficient spot circulation in the market. The supplier’s attitude towards quoting has significantly loosened compared to the previous period, and some enterprises are releasing funds before the holiday and offering moderate discounts for shipment.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on February 9th, the market price of Shunding rubber in the northwest region slightly decreased, and the futures market of Shunding rubber fluctuated and consolidated. Merchants’ offers were lowered by 100-150 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are 12800~13000 yuan/ton.
The production of butadiene rubber industry in this cycle has gradually declined, and pre holiday stocking is coming to an end. The demand for butadiene procurement has significantly weakened, and the market demand support is insufficient. The utilization rate of domestic Gaoshun Shunding rubber production capacity has slightly decreased compared to the previous month, and the equipment load has gradually decreased as the Spring Festival approaches. The weekly production has also decreased, and the pace of raw material procurement has slowed down. The high price of butadiene has fallen, which has to some extent eased the cost pressure on downstream enterprises. However, downstream enterprises mainly focus on completing pre holiday closing orders, and their purchasing willingness is generally low. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the support for butadiene prices is insufficient.
Market forecast: Overall, the domestic butadiene market in this cycle will experience a slight price correction due to the combined effects of weakened cost support, abundant supply, and weak demand. The fluctuation and decline of crude oil on the cost side have weakened the bottom support, while the stable operation of supply side equipment and sufficient spot supply have led to the gradual weakening of downstream pre holiday stocking and rigid demand on the demand side. The loose supply and demand pattern has driven the market to consolidate weakly. In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises will gradually stop their businesses for holidays, and market trading will further become sluggish. The supply side may continue to adopt a strategy of reducing profits and increasing volume, and there is still room for a slight price correction. However, considering that there is no centralized maintenance plan for the main equipment and port inventory remains low, there is limited room for a significant price drop. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, and special attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices and the expectation of resuming work after the holiday.

1、 Price trend
This week (2.2-6), the domestic PVC market prices continued to rise. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the SG-5 weekly increase of PVC carbide method was 1.10%. The rise in the market is mainly driven by the futures market, with insufficient fundamental support, presenting a differentiated pattern of “strong market and weak spot”. As the weekend approaches, the overall sentiment of the commodity market has subsided, and most commodity prices have experienced weak pullbacks, causing the PVC market to stop rising and fall back. According to data from Shengyi Society, the current market price of PVC carbide SG-5 in East China is in the range of 4750-4800 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand side: This week, the PVC spot market supply and demand were weak, but driven by the futures market, the spot market surged at the beginning of the week. But the supply and demand performance is weak, downstream demand is weak, and export volume has also declined. In addition, on the supply side, the PVC operating rate has slightly decreased this week, with some companies operating at rates below 50%. So, as the futures market came under pressure over the weekend, PVC prices experienced a pullback. In addition, this is mainly based on the decrease in trading volume and the shift in market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, during the Chinese New Year in Linji, the festive atmosphere is gradually strengthening, downstream procurement has slightly slowed down, and social inventory remains at a medium to high level. Considering the current large basic inventory, the PVC spot supply side still maintains a relatively abundant level.
On the cost side: This week, the price of calcium carbide in the market rebounded from a low level, and the market returned to an upward trend. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase of calcium carbide this week was 0.39%. The increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and the cost still has advantages, which provides support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
Supply side: slight increase in operating rate, moderate increase in supply pressure
Next week, the domestic PVC industry is expected to see a slight rebound in production, mainly due to the gradual resumption of maintenance equipment – equipment in Fujian, Shandong and other regions are facing restart, leading to an increase in supply expectations. However, overall, as the Spring Festival approaches, most enterprises will maintain their current pace of operation and will not experience large-scale expansion of production. The supply pressure will show a moderate increase, and the suppression effect on prices will be limited.
Demand side: Domestic demand enters off-season, export expectations shrink
In terms of domestic demand, downstream PVC enterprises in China will gradually enter a shutdown and holiday mode, with a continuous decline in operating rates and further contraction in terminal procurement demand, making it difficult to effectively support spot prices; In terms of exports, the PVC contract price for March in the Asian market will be officially released next week. Currently, the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and foreign trade enterprises are mostly holding a waiting attitude. It is expected that the number of export orders will continue to decrease, making it difficult to alleviate domestic inventory pressure.
In summary, the PVC market will gradually enter the adjustment stage before the Spring Festival holiday next week, with a slight increase in operating rates and a continued weakening of demand forming a game. The overall cost side will remain stable, and the sentiment of the futures market will tend to be flat. It is expected that the market will mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach to stabilizing prices, with narrow fluctuations in prices. The focus will be on factors such as the resumption of production of maintenance equipment and the pace of downstream procurement.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 1, 2026, the reference price for the domestic butanone market is 6550 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2026 (reference price for butanone is 6383 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 167 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.61%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in January 2026, the domestic butanone market as a whole showed a steady upward trend. The overall focus of the market is gathering upwards. In early January (1.01-1.12), the overall market for butanone was in a consolidation stage, with a temporary balance between supply and demand. Sellers’ willingness to raise prices and buyers’ wait-and-see sentiment coexisted. In late January (1.13-1.20), the market price of butanone steadily increased. As of January 31st, the domestic butanone market price reference is around 6500-6650 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 100-200 yuan/ton during the month.
Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Butanone
Supply and demand side: Currently, there is equipment maintenance on the butanone supply side, and the tight supply supports the market situation. Although the overall recovery of the demand side is slow, the pre holiday stocking and export improvement have eased the supply and demand pressure. The sellers’ hearts are united in support of the market, coupled with cautious optimism about post holiday expectations, driving up prices.
On the cost side: The price of raw material C4 has not fluctuated much, but the current price of butanone is at a low level in the past year, and manufacturers have thin profits and strong willingness to raise prices.
Analysis of the future market for butanone
In the short term, pre holiday stocking will still provide some support to the domestic butanone market. In the long term, post holiday terminal demand, including the actual recovery strength of downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives, as well as industry production capacity, still needs to be monitored.

On February 3rd, the diethylene glycol market remained stagnant and consolidated, with spot prices in East China closing at 3280 yuan/ton,+10 yuan/ton; South China closed at 3400 yuan/ton, temporarily stable. Local imports continue to be delayed, spot prices remain tight, and there are many external instability factors.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of February 2nd, the inventory of diethylene glycol at ports in East China was 45700 tons, an increase of 15900 tons from the previous cycle. This week (February 3-9), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol is expected to arrive at a ship of 4300 tons, with a continuous decrease in expected port arrivals. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, port shipments are relatively reduced, and it is expected that there will be little change in inventory at the main ports in East China.
Demand: Terminal demand is average, with an average of 36% of domestic unsaturated resin factories operating this week, a decrease of 2.0% from last week. Traders are under pressure to ship. On February 2nd, the total amount of shipments from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang was 1187 tons, a decrease of 315 tons from the previous day.
Cost: There are temporary signs of easing in the US Iran situation, weakening potential supply risks, coupled with the recent strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in international oil prices, resulting in a decrease in cost support.
Market expectations: There will be little change in the supply side, and downstream industries are gradually entering the Spring Festival holiday. Demand support is insufficient, and the geopolitical situation is easing. International oil prices have dropped sharply, and the festive atmosphere is becoming increasingly strong. Market participation enthusiasm is not high, and the short-term ethylene glycol market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Some operators have weak willingness to ship, and downstream demand procurement is the main focus.

Review of the market situation of polyaluminum chloride in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China in 2025 was 1778.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 1711.67 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual decline of 3.75%. The highest point of the year occurred on January 1st at 1778.33 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on September 21st at 1695.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 4.69%.
Continued bottoming out in the first half of the year: prices fell in a tiered manner from February to July, dropping to 1761.67 yuan/ton on February 10th, and briefly stabilized in the 1745 yuan/ton range from March to May. The decline accelerated from June to July, reaching the lowest point of the year at 1695 yuan/ton on July 20th, with a cumulative decline of 4.69% compared to the beginning of the year.
Stable at a low level in the second half of the year: Prices remained at a low level of 1695 yuan/ton in August and September. After October, supported by raw material costs and marginal recovery of downstream demand, the price slightly rebounded to 1711.67 yuan/ton and continued until the end of the year.
Looking at the whole year, the price of polyaluminum chloride has fallen from the high point at the beginning of the year, with a decline of 3.75% at the end of the year compared to the beginning of the year, and the overall market is in a weak operating state.
2026 polyaluminum chloride market forecast
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations and downturns in 2025. The average price at the beginning of the year was 110 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 107.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.27% for the whole year. The East China region is one of the main areas for hydrochloric acid production in China. Among them, Jiangsu Province is one of the important bases for hydrochloric acid production in China, with hydrochloric acid production ranking first in the country. The “14th Five Year Plan for the Development of Raw Material Industry” released by the National Development and Reform Commission clearly proposes to improve the comprehensive utilization level of by-products in the chlor alkali industry, encourage enterprises to build integrated circulation systems, and achieve efficient co production of chlorine gas, hydrogen gas, and hydrochloric acid. This policy directly promotes the upgrading of hydrochloric acid production mode dominated by chlor alkali industry.
Supply side: According to incomplete statistics, the current production capacity of polyaluminum chloride in China is mainly concentrated in provinces with complete raw material and industrial supporting facilities such as Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu. Among them, Henan, as the core production area, accounts for more than 40% of the national production capacity. The average capacity utilization rate of the industry for the whole year is about 55% -60%, which is relatively low. Small and medium-sized manufacturers are affected by rising environmental costs, financial pressure, and low price competition, with operating rates generally less than 40%. However, top enterprises, relying on their scale and technological advantages, can achieve a capacity utilization rate of 70% -80%.
Demand side: The national “14th Five Year Plan” for water ecological environment protection continues to be implemented, and projects such as upgrading and renovating urban sewage treatment plants and treating black and odorous water bodies are accelerating, which will significantly stimulate demand in the water treatment field. With the recovery of domestic consumption and the return of overseas orders, the operating rates of industries such as papermaking and printing and dyeing are expected to gradually rise, driving the growth of procurement of polyaluminum chloride. The application and promotion of high-efficiency polyaluminum chloride in the treatment of difficult wastewater will increase the unit consumption of products and stimulate the growth of high-end demand.

Market forecast: In 2026, the domestic polyaluminum chloride market will show a weak equilibrium and fluctuating recovery pattern, with prices possibly fluctuating in the current low range. The overall focus will slightly increase compared to the second half of 2025, but the significant upward space is limited.

In January 2026, the price of polyester bottle chips showed a weak trend followed by a strong trend, and then rose and fell back in the latter half of the year. Futures and spot prices fluctuated synchronously, and the demand side had strong demand to support the bottom, but the off-season suppressed the increase. As of January 29th, the main futures market closed at 6326 yuan/ton. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream average spot price in East China is 3275 yuan/ton.
price trend
January 1-9: initially suppressed and then rose, with a slight decline; The spot price in East China is 5980-6130, and the futures price is approximately 5950-6060.
January 10-16: First up, then down; East China spot 6000-6100, futures fell back to 5968 within the week.
January 17-23: Strong rally; Spot prices in East China range from 6340 to 6400, with main futures closing at 6448 (up 8.0% on the week).
January 24-29: Rise and fall; The futures main link fell from 6448 to 6326, while spot prices remained stable at 6300-6380.
Core driver analysis
On the supply side, centralized maintenance of the equipment (such as Jiangyin’s 1.2 million ton shutdown from mid January to March) resulted in a capacity utilization rate of 70.24% in late January, a month on month decline in production, and low inventory and low operating costs supporting prices.
Cost side: Fluctuations in crude oil and PTA are transmitted, with a polymerization cost of approximately 5592 yuan/ton, providing significant cost support.
On the demand side: restocking is completed before the Spring Festival, while downstream beverage and oil factories have a bottom line for essential needs, resulting in low operating rates and limited willingness to chase price increases.
Future prospects
Business Society expects that demand recovery after the holiday will not be as expected; The device maintenance has been completed ahead of schedule; Crude oil and PTA prices have rebounded; Regenerated PET replaces reinforcement. Short term prices may fluctuate within the range of 6200-6400 yuan/ton, with cost and supply remaining the main support, and the off-season demand limiting the increase.