According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 2 to February 9, 2026, the domestic butadiene market saw a slight decline, with prices dropping from 10400 yuan/ton to 10033.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53%. The overall market consolidation in this cycle is weak, with some looseness in supplier offers, downstream pre holiday stocking ending, and weakened support for essential demand. Multiple factors have jointly driven prices to slightly decline.
On the cost side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen in this cycle, and market expectations for energy demand have cooled down. Coupled with the rising risk aversion of funds before the holiday, crude oil prices have rebounded at a high level, which has weakened the cost support for the butadiene industry chain. The price of naphtha synchronously follows the fluctuations of crude oil, with a slight downward shift in the overall center of gravity. The cost support for butadiene has weakened compared to the previous period, providing space for market price correction. As of February 6th, the settlement price of the March contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.55 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April is $68.05 per barrel.
Supply side: During this cycle, most of the main domestic butadiene production enterprises have maintained normal operation of their facilities, with a stable overall supply level and sufficient spot circulation in the market. The supplier’s attitude towards quoting has significantly loosened compared to the previous period, and some enterprises are releasing funds before the holiday and offering moderate discounts for shipment.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on February 9th, the market price of Shunding rubber in the northwest region slightly decreased, and the futures market of Shunding rubber fluctuated and consolidated. Merchants’ offers were lowered by 100-150 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are 12800~13000 yuan/ton.
The production of butadiene rubber industry in this cycle has gradually declined, and pre holiday stocking is coming to an end. The demand for butadiene procurement has significantly weakened, and the market demand support is insufficient. The utilization rate of domestic Gaoshun Shunding rubber production capacity has slightly decreased compared to the previous month, and the equipment load has gradually decreased as the Spring Festival approaches. The weekly production has also decreased, and the pace of raw material procurement has slowed down. The high price of butadiene has fallen, which has to some extent eased the cost pressure on downstream enterprises. However, downstream enterprises mainly focus on completing pre holiday closing orders, and their purchasing willingness is generally low. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the support for butadiene prices is insufficient.
Market forecast: Overall, the domestic butadiene market in this cycle will experience a slight price correction due to the combined effects of weakened cost support, abundant supply, and weak demand. The fluctuation and decline of crude oil on the cost side have weakened the bottom support, while the stable operation of supply side equipment and sufficient spot supply have led to the gradual weakening of downstream pre holiday stocking and rigid demand on the demand side. The loose supply and demand pattern has driven the market to consolidate weakly. In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises will gradually stop their businesses for holidays, and market trading will further become sluggish. The supply side may continue to adopt a strategy of reducing profits and increasing volume, and there is still room for a slight price correction. However, considering that there is no centralized maintenance plan for the main equipment and port inventory remains low, there is limited room for a significant price drop. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, and special attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices and the expectation of resuming work after the holiday.