Acetic anhydride prices rose first and then fell in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 28th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5087.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% compared to the price of 5000 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material acetic acid rose first and then fell, while the cost of acetic anhydride decreased. Acetic anhydride manufacturers started operating steadily, and the supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient. The price of acetic anhydride rose first and then fell.

Acetic acid prices rose first and then fell in July

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of July 28th, the price of acetic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.51% compared to July 1st, when the price of acetic acid was 2883.33 yuan/ton. At the beginning of July, acetic acid companies had a lot of parking, leading to a significant increase in acetic acid prices. As acetic acid companies resumed operations, the supply of acetic acid increased and demand remained weak. The supply of acetic acid was surplus, resulting in a decrease in acetic acid prices. The price of acetic acid has stopped rising and fallen, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride has increased.

Methanol prices rose first and then fell in July

According to the methanol commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of July 28th, the price of methanol was 2281.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.66% compared to the methanol price of 2180 yuan/ton on July 1st. The rise in coal prices supported the volatile rise in methanol prices in July. With the resumption of methanol plant construction, the increase in domestic supply exceeded the increase in demand, resulting in a weak market mentality. Downstream consumers have a resistance towards high prices, and methanol prices have stopped rising and falling. The prices of raw materials have fallen, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the support for the rise of acetic anhydride is insufficient. The downward pressure has increased.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that in early July, methanol and acetic acid companies had more parking and insufficient supply, leading to a significant increase in methanol and acetic acid prices. As methanol and acetic acid companies resumed operations, supply increased, while the demand side remained relatively stable. The prices of methanol and acetic acid stopped rising and fell, and the cost of acetic anhydride decreased. The downward pressure on acetic anhydride in the future increased. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 16133.33 yuan/ton on July 1, 16000 yuan/ton on July 27, and the monthly price decline was 0.83%.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the titanium dioxide market first fell and then rose, and overall, the price slightly decreased. In the first two weeks of July, the domestic titanium dioxide market was relatively light, with average market trading and limited actual transactions. Inventory was under pressure, and the price of titanium dioxide in the market declined severely. In the third week, the price of titanium dioxide remained stable, with some manufacturers reducing production. In the fourth week, with the improvement of the real estate market in the terminal market, downstream distributors were more active in stocking, and with low inventory, Longqi sent letters, while other manufacturers followed suit and sent letters to increase prices. The market price of titanium dioxide has increased. Up to now, most domestic Rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15500-17200 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 13500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate has increased this month. Letters of price increase in the titanium dioxide market have been sent out, and the supply of raw materials in the market is tight, leading to an upward trend in the quotes of small and medium-sized miners. At present, the titanium concentrate market is influenced by upstream titanium powder enterprises, and market prices are firm. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1480-1550 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2150 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2350 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is strong and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of sulfuric acid was 192 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 152 yuan/ton. The price reduction during the month was 20.83%. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support is good. However, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened, and the product trend has declined due to supply-demand conflicts. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society titanium dioxide analysts believe that this month, Longqi sent a letter to increase the price of titanium dioxide, and the end market situation has improved. Driving an increase in new orders for titanium dioxide and an upward trend in market prices. The price of raw titanium concentrate has increased, while the price of sulfuric acid has decreased, and cost support is still acceptable. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market may continue to rise in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

Product Name: Titanium Concentrate

Latest price on July 26th: 2150 yuan/ton

On July 26th, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region remained temporarily stable. At present, the transaction situation in the titanium concentrate market is still good, and the spot price is relatively tight, and the market price remains firm. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have seen an increase in market prices, which is beneficial for titanium ore products. Purchasing is mostly wait-and-see, with caution being the main focus. Overall, the titanium ore market is relatively stagnant.

Prediction: In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate will remain stagnant and the organization will operate.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the price of PET water bottle level has been stable, with an average price of 7240.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, with a narrow range compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On July 24th, the rubber and plastic index was 657 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.02% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and an increase of 24.43% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, this week’s (7.14-7.21) “V” trend of 1 # tin ingot in East China, the average market price was 233010 yuan/ton on July 21, and 233310 yuan/ton on July 14, down 0.13% weekly.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for nine consecutive weeks.

As Myanmar approaches the mining ban in August, the tin market has been on the rise for 9 consecutive weeks, but the overall increase is limited. Mainly affected by high inventory, the latest data shows that since October 2022, tin ingot inventory has rapidly accumulated, and by the end of April 23, social inventory has reached over 12000 tons, and inventory has been in a high consolidation trend for three consecutive months. However, downstream demand has always been in the off-season, and market expectations for improvement in the future are relatively small. Under the influence of high inventory, the upward space for tin prices may be limited. The downstream market maintains just in demand procurement, and as market prices continue to rise, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude and a strong supply-demand game mentality. In the future, the Business Society believes that tin prices are still following macro fluctuations in the near future. As August approaches, the focus will be on the further impact of Wa news on the market.

On July 23, the base metal index stood at 1214 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 89.10% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 29th week of 2023 (7.17-7.21), of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities in terms of increase were dysprosium metal (7.01%), dysprosium iron alloy (6.30%) and Dysprosium(III) oxide (6.02%). There are a total of 7 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-3.55%), copper (-1.09%), and antimony (-0.98%) being the top 3 products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.95%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China will rise from July 14, 2022 to July 21, 2022. Last week, it was 6400 yuan/ton, and this week, it was 6933.33 yuan/ton, up 8.33%.

In terms of crude oil: As of July 20th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.65 per barrel, an increase of $0.36 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.64 per barrel, an increase of $0.18 or 0.2%. Affected by the decline in US crude oil inventories and the increase in Chinese crude oil imports, oil prices remain relatively rigid, but concerns about the demand outlook limit the upward trend of oil prices.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by 200 yuan/ton from July 14th to 21st, 2023, with a current implementation of 6800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6923 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 17th, the price of pure benzene was 6792 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 21st), the price of pure benzene was 6901 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.89% compared to last week and a decrease of 23.53% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen for two consecutive weeks.

In terms of industrial chain, both international crude oil and styrene markets strengthened during the cycle, driving the pure benzene market with a 7.89% increase during the week. Sinopec continued to raise the listing price of pure benzene to 6800 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton, which again boosted the market mentality of the industrial chain. The Spot market was active in trading and investment, and the shipment situation was good. The related products of the industrial chain rose this week.

Driven by the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, the market price of hydrogenated benzene rose this week. The ex factory price in Hebei rose to 6800-7000 yuan/ton, and the market price in East China rose to 7000~7100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the construction of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly increased this week, with little overall change. In terms of demand, some of the early maintenance devices have resumed operation in the near future, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the market mentality of the industrial chain. This week, the overall strength of the industrial chain has led to a significant increase in raw material crude benzene prices, and increased cost pressure on enterprises. In the future, downstream demand is expected to improve, and the overall industrial chain is strengthening. There is still room for upward growth in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic market price of Neopentyl glycol was temporarily stable this week. The average price of Neopentyl glycol in the domestic mainstream market this week is 9566.67 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 14.58% year-on-year. On July 17, the Neopentyl glycol commodity index was 46.10, unchanged from yesterday, 55.51% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and 7.08% higher than the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The price of Neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of Neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic Isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic mainstream market rose from 7200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7333.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.85%. Weekend prices fell by 7.56% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market rose slightly, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of Neopentyl glycol was positively affected.

3、 Future prospects

In late July, the market trend of Neopentyl glycol may rise slightly. The upstream Isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, and cost support increased. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. The Neopentyl glycol analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Neopentyl glycol market is dominated by a small increase in market prices due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China will rise from July 10 to July 17, 2022, last week at 6243.33 yuan/ton, and this week at 6400 yuan/ton, up 2.51%.

Crude oil: supported by positive factors in the international oil market, on the one hand, the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) cut production, increasing supply concerns, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced new production reduction measures, and the Saudi Energy Ministry announced that it would extend the policy of an additional 1 million barrels/day production reduction in July to August; The Russian Ministry of Energy has also confirmed a reduction of 500000 barrels per day in oil exports in August, bringing the total production reduction of the OPEC+alliance to approximately 5 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 5% of global oil demand. On the other hand, the United States Department of Energy’s plan to replenish the strategic oil reserve also warmed up the oil market. On July 7, the US announced that it would purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic oil reserve. The procurement plan will be carried out in October and November. Finally, the US dollar strengthened, Asian demand growth boosted international oil prices, supported by demand in the summer peak oil season, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data report on Wednesday showed a rapid decline in crude oil inventories. Multiple positive factors support the upward trend of international oil prices.

As of July 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.89 per barrel, an increase of $1.14 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.36 per barrel, an increase of $1.25 or 1.6%. Inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, coupled with seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries, heating up the oil market.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 300 yuan/ton from July 10th to July 17th, 2023, with a current implementation of 6600 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 10th, the price of pure benzene was 6378 yuan/ton, and on Friday (July 14th), the price of pure benzene was 6396 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to last week and a decrease of 29.77% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen by 4.78% this week.

In terms of industrial chain, both international crude oil and styrene markets strengthened during the cycle, driving the pure benzene market with a 4.78% increase during the week. Sinopec has raised the listing price of pure benzene twice in a row to 6600 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton, once again boosting the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the prices of industrial chain commodities have generally increased.

Driven by the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, the market price of hydrogenated benzene rose this week. The ex factory price in Hebei rose to 6400-6450 yuan/ton, and the market price in East China rose to 6800-6850 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week’s hydrogenation benzene enterprises were affected by poor profitability, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates. In terms of demand, there has been a significant reduction in styrene production recently, but market news suggests that some units will restart this week, and demand is expected to improve. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the overall strength of the industrial chain this week. In the future, downstream demand is expected to improve, and the supply of hydrogenated benzene is slightly tight. There is still room for improvement in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4712.50 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5075.00 yuan/ton, up 7.69%, up 7.12% month on month, and down 5.14% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market situation has been sorted out. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong is referenced to be around 2310-2330 yuan/ton in cash exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi is referenced to be around 2350-2360 yuan/ton in cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong offers a price of 2400-2400 yuan/ton for self delivery. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying region of Shandong is 2280-2280 yuan/ton.

After the recent rise of methanol market, it was temporarily sorted out, with good cost support, active downstream procurement, and smooth shipment of Paraformaldehyde. The Paraformaldehyde analysts of the business community predicted that the price would rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PVC market fell from January to June 2023. On January 1st, the average spot price of PVC carbide method SG5 in China was 6141.67 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average price was 5503.33 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price fell by 10.39%.

2、 Market analysis

Product Market

Looking at the development of PVC market in the first half of 2023, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated and rose mainly in January. Prices rose first and then fell in February. Prices fluctuated and fell in March. Prices fell from April to June.

In the first quarter, PVC carbide SG5 spot prices fluctuated and mainly operated in a fluctuating manner. The cumulative decline from January to March was 0.73%. In January, the price of PVC Spot market rose, and the PVC cost support was good around the Spring Festival. The downstream resumption of production in February was less than expected, and the PVC Spot market fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall. The sharp decrease in raw material calcium carbide prices in March resulted in weak cost support. The price of PVC Spot market fell in March. As of March 31st, the quotation range for domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5830-6250 yuan/ton.

In the second quarter, PVC carbide method SG5 spot sales were mainly down. The cumulative decline from April to June was 9.73%. In April, the price of raw material calcium carbide continued to decline, with weak cost support and high PVC inventory, resulting in a continuous downward trend in spot prices. In May, the demand for orders in the downstream market was sluggish, leading to poor overall procurement, traders would not hoard more goods, and the price of PVC Spot market continued to decline. In June, the demand for orders in the downstream market was general, the overall inventory pressure in the market was large, and the price of PVC Spot market fell in shock. As of June 30th, the quotation range for domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5300-5700 yuan/ton.

Production aspect

According to industry data, the domestic PVC production in June 2023 was 1.756 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% month on month and 3.72% year on year. The cumulative production from January to June was 11.1042 million tons. Among them, the production of PVC using carbide method was 1.2887 million tons, a decrease of 8.47% compared to May and a decrease of 12.03% compared to June last year. The production of PVC using ethylene method was 467300 tons, an increase of 2.23% compared to May and an increase of 30.25% compared to June last year.

In terms of operating rate

According to industry data, the domestic PVC operating rate in June 2023 was 75.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.67% and a month on month decrease of 4.72%.

Import and export aspects

In May 2023, the import volume of pure PVC powder in China was 22100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03% and a month on month decrease of 42.36%. The average monthly import price was 858.81. The export volume was 140300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.25% and a month on month increase of 3.97%. The monthly average export price was 810.72. The total export volume from January to May was 928300 tons, while the total import volume was 212900 tons.

Upstream calcium carbide aspect

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region decreased from January to June. The average factory price of calcium carbide on January 1st was 3700 yuan/ton, and on June 30th it was 2883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.07%. The prices of upstream raw materials, such as blue charcoal, have stabilized at a low level, and there is insufficient support for the cost of calcium carbide. Some calcium carbide enterprises have started to resume production, and the circulation of goods has increased. The downstream PVC market is declining, and downstream demand is weak.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that in the second half of the year, the PVC Spot market will continue to operate in a range of shocks. Pay more attention to the upstream calcium carbide situation and the downstream market demand. In addition, changes in terminal real estate policies are also important factors affecting the current two cities. It is expected that PVC spot prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.